Solon gives you the Meat Lover’s edition today-oh, and you like it, you sick pig, you. Among other things, he tackles the issue of the Big East’s surprising goodness, especially re: its gambling friendly tendencies. Enjoy.-O.
Greetings all.
A question for everyone this week-why is there some sort of question regarding whether an undefeated Big East Champion should go the title game?
If you look at what each of the conferences have done this season, there are 3 BCS conferences that seem to have established themselves as the cream of the crop-the SEC, the Pac 10, and, yes, the Big East. It’s pretty complex as to why, but suffice it to say that based on historical trends, home/road, and scheduled non-conference opponents, I predicted each conference’s W-L record in non-conference games for the season, and came up with the following expected records (actual records thus far are in parentheses):
ACC: 36-12 (26-12)
Big East: 27-13 (32-8)
Big 10: 34-11 (29-11)
Big 12: 37-11 (33-15)
Pac 10: 21-10 (18-8)
SEC: 36-12 (29-7)

Georgia fans, you have to resort to Rainierism here: Ze goggles, zey do nothing!
As you can see, the Big East has outperformed expectations substantially. They haven’t done it cheaply, either; they are 11-7 against BCS opponents, despite playing 10 of the 18 games on the road. And, you’ll note that’s almost 1/2 of their non-conference games against somewhat legitimate opposition.
The advantage of the Big East relative to the other conferences, at least this season, is its depth; UConn is a bad team (although they were still able to beat Big 10 equivalent Indiana on the road), but outside of them there are no dogs in the conference. Cincinnati and South Florida are not especially good teams, but they played Louisville and Rutgers tough (respectively); Cincinnati led Va Tech on the road in the 4th quarter of their game. Syracuse is in the bottom half of the conference, but they played Iowa even (yes, I know Tate didn’t play)-and Iowa is the 4th best team in the Big 10, at worst-and, Syracuse crushed Illinois on the road. And, as far as Louisville and West Va, no non-conference opponent has even come close to beating either of them. Obviously, the Big East has had some bad results (Pitt losing to Michigan State, for example)-but hasn’t every conference?
I’m not arguing the Big East is the best conference, just that running through the conference slate undefeated in the Big East is worthy of a Championship game bid. If Clemson had beaten BC, and went on to run the table, would anyone doubt their fitness for the Championship game? Well, if you look at their schedule and look at Louisville’s, for example, there’s little difference.
Also, in terms of conference schedules, if you look at that of Louisville and you look at that of Ohio State-who misses Wisconsin this season-I also don’t think there’s a lot of difference. OSU plays NW, Indiana, Illinois, and Minnesota-those are 4 pretty easy wins. No Big East team plays 4 conference games against teams as bad as those. Louisville has no game as tough as Michigan, but the next toughest conference game for OSU is the game against Iowa or against Penn State-both of whom look like a marginal Top 25 teams, at best, at this point. One could certainly make the argument that playing West Va/Rutgers is at least as difficult as playing Michigan/Iowa.
And, yes-I know Ohio State played at Texas, and also played Cincinnati (a tougher game for them than Mich State or Indiana was, by the way) which changes things a bit-but the argument against the Big East teams isn’t with regard to their non-conference scheduling, it’s with regard to the conference being so weak that winning it undefeated is of so little import that a 1-loss team should be placed in the championship game ahead of them. And that assumption does not appear to be backed up by anything other than that people assumed the Big East wasn’t going to be good this season.
All right, rant finished. Any thoughts?
On another note, for all of you who took my preseason advice and bet Florida State to go under 9 1/2 wins this season-go cash your tickets. Didn’t take too long, really. You’re welcome.
My selections last week went 7-4, leaving me at 47-32 for the season, a winning percentage of 59.5%. Hopefully I can keep it going this week.
Here are this week’s selections.
THURSDAY:
Clemson (-4) v. VIRGINIA TECH
I have been high on Clemson all season-believing them in the preseason to be the best team in the ACC, which now seems to be the conventional wisdom-and I see no reason to get off them now if the lines are going to be this short. (more…)