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Introducing MATHS! And SCIENCE!!

Joy. Week 2 has ended and we look to Week 3 with bated breath. As the season progresses, one thing pretty much no one looks forward to is the steady accumulation of college football statistics. Indeed, this post is about numbers. Sorry. If you feel you've been misled, here's a youtube video of stupid people:

Like I said before, numbers. Yeah, we got that. Here's a calculation that seems to do a good job of sorting out the good teams from the bad:

Points Per Play Ratio = Offensive Points Per Play / Defensive Points Per Play

where:

Offensive Points Per Play = Total Points Scored / Total Plays

and

Defensive Points per Play Allowed = Total Points Allowed / Total Defensive Plays

Basically, if you score more points in less plays, you have an efficient offense. If you hold your opposition to less points and less plays, your defense is good at getting off the field. Divide your Offensive Points Per Play (OPPP) by your Defensive Points Per Play (DPPP) and you get a somewhat vague decently accurate picture of a teams efficiency. Here's what last years post bowl game Top 25 looks like using this calculation:

Quite a few bowl winners in the top 10. If you looked at the pre-bowl numbers, you'd see interesting tidbits, like Nebraska having a WAY higher Points Per Play (PPP) Ratio than Arizona (not even in the top 25), predicating a blowout.

Here's 2008's post-bowl numbers:

Southern Cal's defense in 2008 was top-notch, led by trained assassin Rey Maualuga, doped-up (allegedly!) tackling machine Brian Cushing, and former walk-on and arguably most successful pro to date, Clay Matthews. Oh yeah, and that Mark Sanchez guy. He was alright. They destroyed Ohio State, Penn State, and pretty much everyone else on their schedule save for Oregon State (which USC fans tell me is no surprise - expect letdowns). Perhaps they could have given Florida a battle, something the Gators didn't get vs. Oklahoma. The blowout is a little indicative based on the Sooners' inferior PPP ratio.

So, where are we in week two? Well, two data points won't amount to anything, but DAMNIT I'M GOING TO DO IT ANYWAY! (DON'T TELL ME WHAT I CAN'T DO!)

ALABAMA BACK-TO-BACK NATIONAL CHAMPS BABY WOOOOOOOOOO! Honestly, Alabama being ranked #1 already is kind of scary. This calculation doesn't factor in strength of schedule (its biggest weakness), so just by beating two opponents by a combined score of 72-6 in the most efficient way possible has them at the top. Notably absent is Ohio State (ROLL TIIIIIDDEE!! S-E-C! BIG TEN SUUUUUUUCKKKSS!), but that may be due to official NCAA stats counting special teams scores against the defense. The Buckeyes have given up a lot of those. If you're counting at home, to date their defense has only given up 10 legit points to Miami.

As the weeks progress, I'll keep track of this and other stats on here, and post the full list of teams once I figure out a good way of keeping spreadsheets updated online (Google Docs, where you at?).

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