120 FBS teams, 70 bowl spots. Will there be 70 bowl eligible teams this year? Right now there are 54. There are 27 teams who cant get eligible. Leaving 39 still trying to get into the last 16 slots. Of those, 16 are one win away.

5-4: Pitt, UConn, Troy

5-5: Boston College, Clemson, Ga Tech, Texas Tech, Louisville, Illinois, SMU, Houston, Notre Dame, BYU, Cal

5-6: Iowa St and Georgia

All 16 wont make it, so some of the teams needing two (or 3) more wins will have to get there. There are 15 teams at 4-6 and 5 teams at 4-5. And with a far outside shot, 3 teams at 3-6.