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College Football Playoff Projection, November 10, 2019

Hello, college football fans!

We can throw last week's projection in the trash. Minnesota hadn't played anybody, they weren't supposed to beat Penn State. They were ranked #17 in last week's initial College Football Playoff Rankings. And Alabama doesn't lose at home, they were close to a touchdown favorite. But Minnesota and LSU don't care what's supposed to happen. That's why they play the games. If what was supposed to happen always happened, there would be no need to play the games.

If I had a vote in this upcoming week's CFP rankings, here's my rankings.

1. LSU Tigers - If you beat Alabama in Tuscaloosa, you deserve to be #1. I'm almost positive they will move up to #1 in the real rankings. This year it is important to be #1 because who wants to get stuck going to Phoenix? Plus, Joe Burrow probably clinched the Heisman Trophy yesterday.

2. Ohio State Buckeyes - Ohio State has bigger issues right now with the mess with Chase Young, If he's out vs. Penn State, that could cost the Buckeyes the Big Ten Championship.

3. Clemson Tigers - They're doing their best to make people forget their close loss at North Carolina and that the ACC is really bad this year.

4. Alabama Crimson Tide - It's a home loss but LSU is that good. Plus, they did make it competitive in the second half after a strong first half.

5. Georgia Bulldogs - The home loss to South Carolina looks really pathetic now. They do get credit for the win over Florida in Jacksonville. The true test comes next Saturday in Auburn. No doubt they will jump Alabama if they run the table and win the SEC Championship Game over LSU.

6. Minnesota Golden Gophers - I have them ahead of the two from the Pathetic 12 now. They may not have the schedule either Oregon or Utah have but they're undefeated and they have a better win than either of them have.

7. Oregon Ducks - For now ahead of Penn State but PSU will move ahead if they beat Ohio State.

8. Penn State Nittany Lions - They have better wins than Utah and Minnesota is still undefeated.

9. Utah Utes

10. Oklahoma Sooners - I went to bed early thinking they had the game vs. Iowa State wrapped up! If they play like that vs. Baylor, they're going to lose.

11. Baylor Bears - On the other hand, Baylor escaped TCU as well. They will need to step up their game to beat Oklahoma.

Here's this week's outlook:

SEC:

In the West Division, LSU needs to only win two out of their final three SEC games to make the SEC Championship Game in Atlanta. They should win them all but two of the three are against Mississippi State, who has a losing record, and Arkansas, who got blown out at home by Mississippi State and Western Kentucky. LSU closes at home vs. Texas A&M which will be the toughest of the three. If LSU loses one game but wins the SEC Championship, they should still be able to finish in the top four of the CFP Rankings and make the Playoff although I'm sure they'd rather be the #1 seed. If they lose only the SEC Championship to Georgia, they'd certainly have a strong case to make the Playoff as well.

Over in the East, Georgia would clinch a spot in Atlanta with a win at the Auburn Tigers. If they lose, they can still get to Atlanta with a home win over Texas A&M but would see their Playoff hopes end. Georgia should make the Playoff if they finish 12-1. I'm sure they'll jump Alabama (assuming Alabama stays ahead of them in this week's poll) if the Bulldogs can beat LSU in Atlanta (assuming they beat Auburn).

Now all the attention comes to Alabama. I would say they are good that Tua Tagovailoa and Company came back. Had the score remained a blowout, that might have opened the door for a 12-1 Oklahoma or Pac-12 champion to move ahead of them for the likely final CFP slot (if you assume LSU, Ohio State, and Clemson remain undefeated). If Alabama beats Auburn, they will have a big advantage over Oregon in the fact that they beat Auburn at Auburn when Oregon lost to the Tigers on a neutral field. If it's Alabama vs. Utah, what's the bigger win, Utah's win over Oregon or Alabama's win over an Auburn team that beat Oregon? I think Alabama still has a pretty decent chance of making the Playoff if they win out. The things that could go wrong for Alabama would be either for Georgia to win out and get in over LSU which would get in over Alabama or for Baylor to finish undefeated and beat Oklahoma twice (which will most likely happen since Kansas State lost at Texas yesterday).

Big Ten:

As depressing as Penn State's loss is, Penn State is not out of the Big East race and a 12-1 Penn State Big Ten Champion team almost certainly makes the CFP after knocking out Ohio State (if they avenge their loss to Minnesota in Indianapolis it would help their cause). If Chase Young doesn't play, that might swing things in the Nittany Lions' favor. The Penn State-Ohio State game in Columbus is no longer a game of two unbeatens but barring a PSU loss to the Indiana Hoosiers next week it will still be for the Big Ten East Division title. Ohio State likely will still make the Playoff if it beats Penn State, loses at the Michigan Wolverines, and wins the Big Ten title.

On the other hand, Minnesota just put themselves in the College Football Playoff discussion. They travel to Iowa City to play the Iowa Hawkeyes. If they win and win at Northwestern (one win and zero Big Ten wins), they will clinch the Big Ten West. If Iowa wins and Wisconsin wins the next two weeks, Wisconsin at Minnesota on Nov. 30 will determine the Big Ten West winner. If Minnesota loses to Iowa or Wisconsin but beats a previously undefeated Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship, could they make the CFP? They'd have a pretty strong case and would have two great wins. I don't think Alabama or any Big 12 or Pac-12 team can match that. But Minnesota will have to defend their really weak non conference schedule.

ACC:

On one hand, Clemson's path appears easier since both the Wake Forest Demon Deacons and South Carolina both lost. But that also weakens Clemson's schedule. I'm not sure it matters much since in Clemson's case it's finish unbeaten or miss the Playoff. Wake Forest's loss to the Virginia Tech Hokies means Clemson has officially won the ACC Atlantic Division and will play in the ACC Championship Game in Charlotte even if they are upset by Wake Forest in Clemson next Saturday. I'm sure no one in Clemson was celebrating that fact. Over in the Coastal Division, the Virginia Cavailers need only to beat their in state rivals Virginia Tech in Charlottesville to win the division. Unfortunately the last time UVa won was 2003. If Virginia Tech wins out, they will go to Charlotte. If the Pittsburgh Panthers win out, they need Virginia Tech to beat Virginia as the Cavaliers would win the tiebreaker by the head to head win.

Big 12:

Close only counts in horseshoes, hand grenades, and apparently Baylor football games. In their six conference wins, four were by a touchdown or less. The game everyone in Waco has been waiting for all season is this Saturday when the Sooners come to town. Certainly Baylor has been tested more than Minnesota has (at least in the eyes of the CFP Committee as they were ranked higher). But next week will really prove if Baylor is the team to beat in the Big 12 or Oklahoma is. Also, I'm not sure if Jalen Hurts can catch Joe Burrow for the Heisman but if he can he has to beat Baylor.

An undercard this week in the Big 12 is the Texas Longhorns at Iowa State Cyclones. Texas is still in the running for the Big 12 Championship Game if Oklahoma beats Baylor on Saturday and Texas runs the table (Texas and Baylor would tie and Texas would have the head to head). Barring total chaos, if Iowa State beats Texas in Ames then Baylor and Oklahoma State will meet in Arlington for the Big 12 Championship. The best case scenario for the conference would be for Baylor to win twice since they wouldn't leave an undefeated Baylor out. I'm not sure if a 12-1 Oklahoma team beating Baylor twice would be enough. The last thing the Big 12 wants is a split between the two.

Pac-12:

The Pac-12 certainly benefited from Penn State losing to Minnesota. I'm not sure they gained with Alabama losing but for sure it was better than LSU losing since LSU has a stronger schedule and Alabama at least has a chance of losing to Auburn. The Pac-12's road to the Playoff right now is Auburn upsetting Alabama. I'm pretty sure Alabama would get the edge over either Oregon or Utah. Should Alabama lose, Oregon and Utah are both ahead of both Baylor and Oklahoma. I will say it would be almost impossible for either a one loss Oregon or Utah to have a case over an undefeated Baylor but a one loss Pac-12 champ beating the other would be pretty close vs. a 12-1 Oklahoma with two wins over Baylor (Oregon would have the better case since their loss is better). Oregon certainly would like Auburn not only to beat Alabama but to beat Georgia to improve the Ducks' SOS if it comes down to them vs. Oklahoma for the final Playoff spot. Just like Alabama, neither Oregon nor Utah don't want to see Georgia win the SEC and beat LSU in Atlanta (Oregon more so because it gives Auburn another loss). Both Oregon and Utah were off but Oregon State lost meaning Oregon now needs one win or one Oregon State loss to make the Pac-12 Championship Game. I'm sure the Pac-12 Championship Game is secondary at this point for Oregon (and Utah) though,

Group of Five:

Two upsets happened, Central Florida lost at Tulsa and San Diego State lost at home to Nevada. In UCF's case, they were already out of the Cotton Bowl race. It only gives the Cincinnati Bearcats an extra game cushion in the AAC East Division race. Cincinnati needs two wins to make the AAC Championship although one loss would end their New Year's Six bowl hopes. Over in the West, the Memphis Tigers control their destiny having head to head wins over the SMU Mustangs and Navy Midshipmen. Cincinnati travels to Memphis on Black Friday. Assuming no upsets, if Memphis wins, the two play for the AAC Championship the following week. If Cincinnati wins, Cincinnati hosts the SMU/Navy winner (they play in Annapolis Nov. 23). The Boise State Broncos, if they win out, could also be in line for the Group of Five New Year's Six bid. Right now Cincinnati leads the race at #20 followed by Memphis at #21, Boise State at #22, Navy at #24, and SMU at #25. If Cincinnati or Memphis win out, I'm sure they will be ahead of Boise State if they win out. I'm not sure about Navy/SMU (they'd have to beat the other and Cincinnati in the AAC Championship, most likely at Cincinnati).

Projection:

Same matchups but the seeds have changed.

Fiesta Bowl: Sat. Dec. 28, 4pm, #2 Ohio State (13-0, Big Ten Champ) vs. #3 Clemson (13-0, ACC Champ)

Peach Bowl: Sat. Dec. 28. 8pm: #1 LSU (13-0, SEC Champ) vs. #4 Alabama (11-1)

New Year's Six:

Here's where it gets interesting. If you're a Penn State fan and you don't beat Ohio State, the path to Pasadena just got cloudier. Minnesota jumped in the lead for the Rose Bowl (assuming it's determined by merit and not by ticket sales, TV potential, and reputation). Penn State would need Minnesota to lose twice and Wisconsin to win the West and lose to Ohio State in Indy to make it to the Rose Bowl now. As for the Sugar Bowl, I'll stick with Auburn and Oklahoma.

Rose Bowl: Wed. Jan. 1, 5pm, Oregon (12-1, Pac-12 Champ) vs. Minnesota (11-2) - I won't commit to which game they'll lose other than the Big Ten Championship but they'll lose one of them

Sugar Bowl: Wed. Jan. 1, 8:30pm, Oklahoma (12-1, Big 12 Champ) vs. Auburn (9-3)

Now a 10-2 Penn State is a possibility for the Orange and Cotton Bowls. I'll stick with Florida for the Orange but Penn State edges out Notre Dame for the Cotton. I'll also move Virginia into the Orange. They'll have four losses but the other option is Wake Forest with three losses.

Cotton Bowl: Sat. Dec. 28, noon: Memphis (12-1, AAC Champ) vs. Penn State (10-2)

Orange Bowl: Mon. Dec. 30, 8pm: Virginia (9-4) vs. Florida (10-2)

Finally, my Citrus Bowl matchup remains the same. If Penn State doesn't make a New Year's Six Bowl, they could get squeezed out of the Citrus if Wisconsin or Iowa is in line and the Citrus wants a "new" team (Penn State was just in Orlando last year).

Citrus Bowl: Wed. Jan. 1, 1pm: Georgia (9-3) vs. Wisconsin (9-3/10-2)

Should Penn State make the Cotton, it does help the Big Ten. The Outback needs a "new" team and can't take Michigan or Iowa so the next best team is Indiana. Michigan goes to the Holiday Bowl. Iowa can't go to the Gator so guess who's next? My Illinois Fighting Illini! Iowa goes to the Redbox Bowl and Michigan State goes to the Pinstripe Bowl. Thankfully no one in the Big Ten will have to go to Detroit.

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