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College Football Playoff Projection (October 20, 2019)

Hello, college football fans!

ILL! INI!

We are! PENN STATE!

Sorry, I had to get those in. I have an undergraduate degree from the University of Illinois and a master's degree from Penn State so it's safe to say I enjoyed yesterday. I can't remember the last time I've admitted I was an alumni of Illinois. It's been a long time since they've done something (especially in football) that I've been able to be proud of.

Without a doubt, it's affected this week's College Football Projection as it knocked Wisconsin from the ranks of the unbeaten teams. We also lost Boise State, who lost at BYU while most of you (me included) were sleeping. Maybe Boise State scheduled it late at night hoping no one would notice if they lost:) We'e down to ten unbeaten FBS teams (eight Power 5 teams).

Here's the outlook by conference:

SEC:

The biggest news is the ankle injury to Alabama Crimson Tide quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. If he misses a lot of time, that could really change things in the SEC West. I'd probably have to make the LSU Tigers the favorite to go to Tuscaloosa and win. According to AL.com, Tua told his teammates after the game that he would be back for LSU. Next week the Auburn Tigers travel to Baton Rouge in a game that can change things in the West Division though.

In last week's FanPost, I talked about the possibilities of South Carolina (and Missouri) winning the SEC East. That was before Florida went to Columbia and brought the Gamecocks back to life and Missouri was stunned by Vanderbilt. It looks like the November 2 battle in Jacksonville between the Florida Gators and the Georgia Bulldogs will be for the SEC East Division title. Missouri (assuming they win their appeal of their postseason ban) can still win out and win the SEC East but do you think a team that lost to Vanderbilt will beat both Florida and Georgia? Should Missouri stun one of them and it's a three way 6-2 tie with a three way split between Georgia, Florida, and Missouri, now divisional records would come into play and Georgia lost to South Carolina and Missouri to Vanderbilt so Florida is your divisional champion.

ESPN wrote about a possible "chaos" scenario that could unfold. Florida upsets Alabama in the SEC Championship. LSU loses only to Alabama in the regular season. LSU will have a case to make the Playoff over Florida because they beat them in the regular season. Except in this scenario, Alabama (assuming they finish 12-1 with their only loss to Florida in the SEC Championship) would have a case over LSU and neither one of them is the SEC Championship. In this scenario, it isn't Florida vs. LSU but Florida vs. Alabama vs. LSU and each team would be 1-1 vs. each other. In this case, Florida is the only won that won on a neutral field and they have an SEC Championship. They also beat Georgia on a neutral field. Florida would have to be the first SEC team chosen for the Playoff, Alabama 2nd, LSU 3rd.

Big Ten:

It was looking like we were heading towards a possible 7-0 vs. 7-0 Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes showdown in Columbus next Saturday. But we'll have to settle for 6-1 vs. 7-0. Meanwhile, the Penn State Nittany Lions remained unbeaten by barely beating the Michigan Wolverines in Happy Valley/State College last night. Also remaining undefeated are one of the two biggest surprise unbeatens, the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

Next week, Penn State faces one of its biggest nemesis's in Michigan State. The Spartans have won four of the last five meetings since they were reunited in the Big Ten's Eastern Division in 2014 including two out of three at Penn State. Minnesota hosts Maryland. Should both teams win next Saturday, they will meet in Minneapolis in the biggest college football game to ever be played in Minnesota on Nov. 9.

Wisconsin's College Football Playoff chances are in huge trouble. They must win out, including wins at Columbus and at Minneapolis and in the Big Ten Championship vs. either Ohio State or Penn State, and then they must hope the CFP Committee doesn't hold their loss at Illinois against them (it would be really easy to do so). If Wisconsin loses in Columbus, not only can they kiss their CFP chances goodbye but if Minnesota beats Penn State and runs the table before Wisconsin they would clinch the Big Ten West Division title before the season finale vs. the Badgers and it won't even matter if Wisconsin beats Minnesota.

Meanwhile, in the East, Ohio State can lose to Wisconsin and win out and win the Big Ten Championship but would that be enough to make the CFP now that Wisconsin would have two losses including one to Illinois? Maybe they would rather an undefeated Minnesota make the Big Ten Championship Game although that would give Penn State another loss. Unless Penn State loses twice before Columbus, Nov. 23 will determine the Eastern Division champion. It will be amazing if both teams are still unbeaten that day. One game that won't might figure into Ohio State's chances of making it in as a one loss champion is Notre Dame at Michigan. The Buckeyes want Michigan to win to help their case and it would knock the Irish out as a potential one loss candidate.

Big 12:

The Oklahoma Sooners and Baylor Bears continue to win and both remain undefeated. They are set to play in Waco on November 16. Baylor has West Virginia at home and TCU in Fort Worth before then. Remember Baylor will likely have to beat Oklahoma twice to finish undefeated and make the College Football Playoff (I don't think they will get in with a split). I think Oklahoma might make it in with a split and a Big 12 Championship although it would depend on what happens in the SEC. You can't count the Texas Longhorns out yet and they can knock Baylor out of the Big 12 race if they beat them in Waco on Nov. 23 after Oklahoma does (a three way tie would be interesting). Of course if the Longhorns play like they did vs. Kansas, they'll be no threat to Baylor.

ACC:

Same story for the Clemson Tigers each week, keep winning or forget the Playoff, even if they bounce back to win the ACC Championship. On the other hand, the only truly "bad" ACC team right now (more than a game below .500 overall) is Georgia Tech, and they just beat Miami. They've got Wake Forest at 6-1 and three other teams at 5-2. Other than their FCS game, the only remaining team Clemson plays with a losing record is 3-4 South Carolina, the same team that won at Georgia last week.

Also, since they are an ACC team in other sports, let's talk the Notre Dame Fighting Irish. Their game in Ann Arbor is the biggest hurdle remaining to see if they can finish with one loss. Even if the Irish win, they still have to hope at least one of the Big Four champs (ACC, Big Ten, Big 12, SEC) finish with a loss and convince themselves they are better than that champion as well as any other one loss teams.

Pac-12:

The Oregon Ducks stayed in the running for the North Division lead. Right now they are two games up on Oregon State and three games up on everyone else (and have head to head wins over Washington, California, and Stanford). I'd say their chances of playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game are pretty good. But they need to win out to make the College Football Playoff and still need help. They have two tough road games at USC and at Arizona State. Meanwhile in the South, the Utah Utes and USC Trojans are tied for first place with USC winning the earlier meeting. Utah has only one loss but would be shut out of the Pac 12 Championship if both win out. The Pac-12 has very little chance of making the CFP but USC would end it altogether if they win out. Not only would they keep Utah out of the championship game, preventing them from adding a championship to their resume, they would also hand Oregon their second loss. In addition to a home game with Oregon, USC still has to go to the desert to play Arizona State. Utah still has road games at Washington and at Arizona but Washington lost twice at home this year and Arizona was pounded in its last two games, one of which was played in Tucson.

Group of Five:

The SMU Mustangs and Appalachian State Mountaineers (yes, I had to look that one up) are the only undefeated teams left. Appalachian State still has to go to South Carolina on Nov. 9. SMU plays at the Memphis Tigers on Nov. 2. With the Boise State Broncos's loss, I think the American Athletic Conference's champion will win the Group of Five's New Year's Six bid. Right now, I see that team as Memphis. They host SMU and the Cincinnati Bearcats on Nov. 29. I project Cincinnati to win the AAC East over the Temple Owls and UCF Knights (Temple should beat UCF this Saturday in Philly and Cincinnati should beat Temple at home Nov. 23). Temple, Cincinnati, and UCF would all finish 6-2 in the East after Memphis beats them but Cincy would have beaten the Owls and Central Florida. When Cincinnati and Memphis play on Black Friday, assuming everything I predicted before then comes to fruition, Cincinnati will have clinched the East but Memphis will need the game to clinch the West over the Navy/SMU winner.

College Football Playoff/New Year's Six Bowls:

For now, I'll assume Tua plays vs. LSU and keep Alabama in.

Fiesta Bowl: Sat. Dec. 28, 4pm, #2 Clemson (13-0, ACC Champ) vs. #3 Ohio State (13-0, Big Ten Champ) (This is what I meant to say last week as Alabama with the first pick would choose the Peach and not the Fiesta as no one east of Texas would choose the desert).

Peach Bowl: Sat. Dec. 28, 8pm, #1 Alabama (13-0, SEC Champ) vs. #4 Oklahoma (13-0, Big 12 Champ)

Rose Bowl: Wed. Jan. 1, 5pm, Penn State (11-1) vs. Oregon (11-2, Pathetic 12 Champ)

Sugar Bowl: Wed. Jan. 1, 8:30pm, LSU (11-1) vs. Baylor (11-2)

Orange Bowl, Mon. Dec. 30, 8pm, (Picks Name Out of Hat) Wake Forest (9-3) vs. Notre Dame (10-2)

Cotton Bowl, Sat, Dec, 28, noon, Memphis (12-1, AAC Champ) vs. Florida (11-2)

Citrus Bowl, Wed, Jan, 1, 1pm, Wisconsin (10-3) vs. Auburn (9-3)

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