FanPost

College Football Playoff Projection - November 18, 2018

Hello, college football fans!

We're just two weeks away from "Selection Sunday" (to borrow a phrase from college basketball) and one week from the college football championship games. Each week, the College Football Playoff picture comes more into focus.

SEC:

With the Alabama Crimson Tide and Georgia Bulldogs each playing cupcakes (even though 'Bama was tied at halftime), we weren't expecting either team to lose and any change to either team's Playoff outlook. Both teams host their in state rivals (Alabama hosts Auburn and Georgia hosts Georgia Tech). Both rivals should present more of a challenge but both the Crimson Tide and Bulldogs should be favored. Alabama and Georgia meet in Atlanta for the SEC Championship. Alabama may be able to lose a game and still make the Playoff (it would be better if the loss is to Auburn and they beat Georgia to eliminate them from Playoff consideration). Georgia already has a loss and has no margin for error, they need to win out.

ACC:

The Clemson Tigers won easily. They host South Carolina and then play Pittsburgh, who clinched a spot in the ACC Championship Game yesterday. Clemson likely has no margin for error if they lose one of their two games when it comes to the Playoff, they are likely out even if it is South Carolina and they come back and win the ACC Championship (unless there are a lot of upsets in other conferences).

Meanwhile, Notre Dame won impressively over Syracuse. Should Notre Dame and Clemson both finish undefeated, I'd argue Notre Dame's win over Michigan is an argument for them to be ranked ahead of Clemson, especially if Michigan beats Ohio State next week in Columbus. Syracuse also played Clemson close. Assuming they finish #2 and #3, they will settle it on the field. I also think the Notre Dame win over Michigan means they will have a case to be considered for the CFP even if they lose at USC although the way the Trojans are playing maybe they deserve to be out if they lose to them.

Big Ten:

The Ohio State Buckeyes escaped Maryland by the skin of their teeth (they were a missed two point conversion from losing). But the Big Ten East division now comes down to them and the Michigan Wolverines and a winner take all game next Saturday with the winner a heavy favorite in the Big Ten Championship Game vs. Northwestern. Most likely the Big Ten champion will finish with just one loss but Michigan would be the stronger representative than Ohio State since the Wolverines loss was to unbeaten Notre Dame and Ohio State's was to a mediocre Purdue team (and it was by a big margin). Ohio State was helped by West Virginia's loss as it took one potential team that could keep them out of the Playoff out. I ran a poll last week between OSU and the Mountaineers and West Virginia won big. It's a moot point now.

Big 12:

The biggest change this week in the projection is the Big 12 when Oklahoma State upset West Virginia. The Mountaineers can still win the Big 12 but are pretty much dead when it comes to the CFP race. The Oklahoma Sooners now are the only Big 12 Conference team alive in the race. Oklahoma travels to Morgantown to face West Virginia Friday. If they win, they advance to the Big 12 Championship Game. Texas plays Kansas on Friday. If they win, they will play in the Big 12 Championship vs. the Oklahoma/West Virginia winner while the loser of the game will be eliminated (if West Virginia beats Oklahoma, all three teams will finish 7-2, West Virginia will have beaten both Texas and Oklahoma, and Texas beat Oklahoma, so Oklahoma will be eliminated).

Texas can still make the Big 12 Championship with a loss to Kansas if Oklahoma beats West Virginia and Iowa State beats Kansas State (there would be a 3 way tie at 6-3 between Texas, West Virginia, and Iowa State with no head to head advantage and the next tiebreaker is record against the best team in the standings which would be Oklahoma and Texas would be the only team to beat them this year). Now if Texas loses to Kansas, Oklahoma beats West Virginia, and Kansas State loses to Iowa State and ISU drops out of the tiebreak, then its Texas and West Virginia alone at 6-3 and West Virginia wins the tiebreak. Of course we're considering Texas losing to Kansas here.

The one difference now is that Oklahoma won't have to beat West Virginia two weeks in a row (unless Texas does lose to Kansas and Iowa State loses to Kansas State). But they will still have to win in Morgantown and beat a Texas team that beat them earlier this season. Also, would they get in over Michigan or Ohio State? What if Georgia upsets Alabama and Alabama joins the pool?

Pac-12:

The good news this week is we finally know who will win the Pac 12 South division. Utah clinched it after winning in Colorado in the snow. Meanwhile, the North will come down to the Apple Cup in Pullman between the Washington Huskies and the Washington State Cougars, who have really slim CFP hopes (they will need a lot of teams to lose).

AAC:

The UCF Knights clinched the AAC Eastern Division and will host the AAC Championship Game. As for the Western Division, Houston will play at Memphis. If the Cougars win, they win the division and will play at UCF for the AAC title. If Memphis wins, it can open up the divisional title to tiebreakers between Houston and Memphis along with SMU and/or Tulane, who also have three conference losses. Houston lost to SMU but beat Tulane. Memphis beat SMU but lost to Tulane. SMU beat Tulane. So a three way between Houston, Memphis, and SMU would go to Memphis (Memphis would have beaten Houston and beat SMU). In a four way tie, Memphis and SMU would be 2-1, Houston would be 1-2, and Memphis beat SMU so they would win. The one tiebreaker that is not automatically in favor of Memphis would be a three way between Memphis, Houston, and Tulane (SMU loses and falls out). Then all three would be 1-1 against each other.

UCF will certainly gain a New Year's Six bid if they win the AAC. They are also a longshot for the CFP though. Should the AAC West champion upset them for the AAC crown, it probably opens the door for the Mountain West Champion if its Utah State or Boise State) to steal it. Both teams were in the CFP Top 25.

Playoff Outlook:

If Alabama beats Georgia, and Clemson and Notre Dame win out, Oklahoma does not win out, and Michigan or Ohio State wins the Big Ten, they are your CFP field without any controversy (Washington State will argue but they haven't played anybody).

If Oklahoma does win out, the argument will be between them and the Big Ten champion. I think Michigan will easily get in over Oklahoma but Oklahoma gets in over Ohio State. There might be some controversy here, especially with Ohio State being left out twice in a row despite winning the Big Ten and this year only losing once as opposed to last year losing twice.

The biggest nightmare for the CFP Committee will be if Georgia beats Alabama for the SEC Championship. For sure Georgia gets in over Alabama but does the SEC get two teams in like they did last year? Assuming Clemson and Notre Dame finish undefeated, you would then be leaving out a one loss Big Ten champion Ohio State or Michigan and possibly a one loss Oklahoma. Certainly Michigan would have the stronger resume vs. Alabama if it came down to it.

Projection:

SEC: Alabama (13-0) over Georgia (11-2)

ACC: Clemson (13-0) over Pittsburgh (8-5)

Big Ten: Ohio State (12-1) over Northwestern (8-5)

Big 12: Texas (10-3) over West Virginia (9-3) - I'm switching to Texas since the game is in Arlington and WVU isn't playing for the Playoff anymore

Pac 12: Washington State (12-1) over Utah (9-4)

AAC: UCF (12-0) over Memphis (8-5)

Playoff:

Cotton Bowl: 1. Alabama (13-0) vs. 4. Ohio State (12-1)

Orange Bowl: 2. Notre Dame (12-0) vs. 3. Clemson (13-0) - I'm going to rank Notre Dame ahead

New Year's Six Bowls:

Rose Bowl: Michigan (10-2) vs. Washington State (12-1)

Sugar Bowl: LSU (10-2) vs. Texas (10-3)

Peach Bowl: Georgia (11-2) vs, Oklahoma (10-2)

Fiesta Bowl: Florida (9-3) vs. UCF (12-1)

It makes more of a geographical fit for Oklahoma and UCF to be switched but I'm not sure you want Central Florida in the Peach in back to back years.

I've been picking Ohio State to beat Michigan several weeks now and after they barely beat Maryland that pick looks really dumb. Next week we'll know whether that pick was smart or dumb.

FanPosts are user-submitted, and thus NOT representative of EDSBS editorial or any of our opinions unless posted by us ourselves. Please refrain from posting blatant spam or self-promotion, because this makes us hate you. Thanks!

Trending Discussions