The Factor Five Five Factor Preview is the *only* college football game preview that almost always picks the wrong team to win but doesn't care. You were just going to use that money for dumb things anyways.
NEBULOUS STATISTICAL COMPARISONS OF DUBIOUS VALIDITY
It'd be fun to say that Louisville's defense would be the ones to finally crack Florida State's offense in half, deliver the backbuster most of us want them to experience in front of a large audience, and then leave them prone in the ring while scaling a ladder to finish the match with a decisive boom. (Petrino makes the move with the neckbrace on, but only after slipping it on theatrically to wild applause.)
That would be fun, and it would be totally inaccurate. Florida State, thoroughly dominated on the stat sheet by Notre Dame, pulled out a last-minute victory thanks to Jameis Winston's insane accuracy and a properly called offensive pass interference call against Notre Dame. Clemson escaped after missing a 4th down conversion. Oklahoma State fumbled away their chance to beat Florida State after a random hit on quarterback J.W. Walsh spun him upside down, causing a fumble straight out of the NFL Blitz graphics playbook. FSU's apricot sat in the crosshairs three times this season; each time the sniper missed, and they lived to play another week undefeated.
And yes, Louisville has some gaudy defensive numbers, and here's where the ACC strikes again with its catstanky strength of schedule. Louisville's top-rated defense garnered those numbers against Syracuse, Clemson, Wake Forest, and Virginia, with the opener against Miami representing the toughest challenge overall. Even in that case, Louisville got the luxury of breaking in freshman Brad Kaaya in his first start in college.
FSU has obvious glaring weaknesses-- the nation's 104th ranked rushing offense, for instance-- but Louisville has zero experience facing a quarterback capable of challenging their defensive secondary. Nevermind the other huge thing here: peer-wise, this Louisville offense is basically Iowa/Maryland grade in terms of efficiency. Hey, there's a good quarterback on the other team. That's a stat by itself, right?
FLORIDA STATE, YOU'VE BEEN FACTOR'D!
One is Scott Stapp in facepaint. This is the other:
The thing where we remind you about John L. Smith, and the time his team beat Florida State at football:
The last time these two teams played, John L. Smith had not gone bankrupt, had not slapped himself in a press conference, had not become the first official eight-month-contract coach in college football, had not yelled SMILE in a press conference midway through that disastrous eight month tenure, and was just a gee-golly dude playing a Thursday night game in a driving rainstorm against the number four team in the country. Chris Rix played quarterback with Jeff Bowden calling plays! For real money! You can do anything in your life if you set your mind to it even if you shouldn't be within ten miles of the dream you're pursuing.
TL;DR: It's a road game and John L. Smith once did this, so anything's possible.
LOUISVILLE, YOU'VE BEEN FACTOR'D!
Junior St. Louis
Louisville just can't compete with the Noles in this Factor; FSU's fielding what reads like an East German supervillain group trying to kill Iron Man in 1984. And, really, how do we know this ISN'T an East German supervillain group trying to kill Iron Man? Can you PROVE they're not going to blow up the statue of Vulcan in Birmingham? You think Jimbo knows what public art these kids are and aren't trying to destroy? No chance, man. No chance.
FLORIDA STATE, YOU'VE BEEN FACTOR'D
GRUDGES/SCORES TO SETTLE/SHEER CUSSEDNESS
That 2002 thing isn't relevant for anyone here, Florida State and Louisville don't have a historical rivalry to really speak of, neither coach seems to have that much enmity for the other, and southern Ohio/northern Kentucky and panhandle Florida have no real beefs on the record that don't involve oxy and guns. There appear to be no serious motivations here besides a basic underdog card, a national title campaign on the line, and the usual battle of "Which coach can be the bigger dickhead in the name of pure dickheadedness?"
Despite a recent streak of impressive performance in this category, one of these gentlemen is not named Bobby Petrino.
LOUISVILLE, YOU'VE BEEN FACTOR'D
That's a 3-2 edge for Louisville, and reason enough why you should accuse us of anti-Florida State bias and hating. We are definitely just jealous of FSU's awesome tradition of championshipping and never failing nope not ever.