Reads are important on this play, which we’ll call CAREER JET BANDIT X FLY D-BO OVER 2. We’re expecting good protection through a solid zone scheme of a middle class upbringing and lack of obvious physical or mental defect. We’re running four routes on the play. You’ll note the slot receiver is not accounted for in the playbook; this is by design, since you need one career option to forget, and then mourn as your lost ideal once it’s too late to choose it in the progression.

Let’s go through the reads, son.

First read: ASTRONAUT. The quarterback (you) takes the ball in the shotgun and surveys the defense. On this play, your first option is the X receiver, on this play known as ASTRONAUT.

ASTRONAUT is double covered by LACK OF MATH SKILLS AND DISCIPLINE. (Also, you find out you don’t like enclosed places when you go to Mammoth Cave as a nine year old.) It’s important to recognize this early and not force this ball prematurely, as you may end up in the military not flying jets, but instead handing out fresh underwear for hours at a time to new recruits as a logistics man. This throw is off the table, especially with a potential tip from COLORBLIND pressuring from the weakside. You must go to your next option.

(COLORBLIND plays havoc on his play as the 3-4 hybrid end: you can’t tell if he’s dropping to further cover ASTRONAUT, or rushing the qb. He’s a menace confusing the entire left side of the play for the qb. Better to let the running back chip and then go to the flat as an outlet receiver, which we’ll cover here in a bit.)

Second read: Your Z receiver, a.k.a. The Z receiver is referred to here as ADULT FILM STAR.

A quick frantic look and progression through your footwork reveals that Z is not an option due to A LACK OF SIZE against the cornerback of DON’T WANNA BE THAT AVERAGE GUY IN THE ORGY SCENE, M’KAY? Again, recognize this quickly, shuffle forward in the pocket, and move to your next option.

Third read: The Y receiver, or the Tight End, or what we call VET in this scheme. Shifting your feet a third time somewhere around your first semester in college, you eye your third read: VET. It says math is required in the major description, but you don’t believe it, because they’re just animals, right? And animals can’t hire lawyers or complain when your ignorance of basic chemistry puts them in a three day coma. How hard can this be?

Unfortunately, VET is running a short drag round underneath the ROBBER position of HAYFEVER. This throw is also affected by LACK OF MATH SKILLS AND DISCIPLINE, a corner whose locktight coverage indeed affects the entire field. (A good corner is just that valuable to a sound defensive scheme.) It might look open, but it’s not, and a forced throw risks a turnover and valuable time lost to getting all those prerequisites only to find out you don’t savor the special warmth you feel with your arm stuck two feet into a cow’s rectum.

You move to your fourth read, who because of the double coverage on ASTRONAUT should be wide open: the running back, shown here in our terminology as CELEBRITY CHEF.

This option is interrupted both by your lack of any real restaurant experience and THE SHRIMP INCIDENT. This option is blocked, and if you should force this throw twice you will have to rely once again on the kindness of strangers with EpiPens to spare.

The net result on the play will be an incomplete pass, and a PUNT

There are a few more loaded up and ready to go here, but if you have a situation you’d like to see metaphorically represented in football terms, please send it to us at harumphharumph of the gmail or yahoo variety type email address.

Our guest columnist today is Presidential Candidate Ron “Dr. No-Huddle” Paul.

Thanks for having me here. I’m not sure who you are, what you want, or why I’m even here. In fact, I don’t know who I’m writing this to. Why do people send me letters? Why do people on the internet like me? I don’t know. Really, I don’t know. Someone picks me up from my house in the morning, takes me places, and I just start talking until someone claps. These are all things I don’t know. Where am I? Really, where am I?

What I do know about is freedom and 1970s standards of gynecology. That’s why I still believe in two things: the Dalkon Shield and the Constitution. Especially the Constitution. I may have had my hands in more vaginas than any other member of congress except for John Boehner, but at least I got paid for doing it, and not the other way around. Is that a joke? Why are you all laughing? I’m confused? Yes, I’m confused!

Hey, why’s my name on a blimp? A blimp? Really? I’m thrilled about the possibilities of dirigible travel. It’s one of my passions, but I’ll tell you this: you won’t see me telling you that the government should be involved in making blimps, unless they’re blimps equipped with machine guns to put up along the Mexican border, because it’s a well-known fact that Mexicans fear both guns and blimps. It’s natural law, just like the Constitution and the rules of Yahtzee.

Speaking of games that involve hitting your spouse: football. I’m here to talk about football? Really? Okay, I’ll talk about it. Ron Paul likes football, but doesn’t like a few things about football as it stands in America.

First, a Ron Paul administration believes you should go ahead and do what you like in football. Helmets are unnecessary encumbrances on your basic freedoms as a football player! In fact, by restricting what you can see on the field, it actually causes more accidents and injuries.

Second, I believe the football should conform to all of the clauses of the Constitution, including the second amendment. You can’t like one, and not like the other. Do I think this means you should be able to carry guns on the field? That’s not the government’s business unless you want to tell people they can’t carry guns onto the field. And from what I’ve seen, the introduction of firearms into the game could make for some real excitement on the field, people!

Now that’s freedom? Wait, that’s not what the card says. Now, THAT’S Freedom! Who’s typing these things again? What was I talking about…

Oh, third: rules. You’re free, and that’s a huge responsibility. So when it comes to first downs, we can’t as a nation rely on the oversight of replay officials, or the unsubtle fascism of chalk lines, or even the quiet tyranny of aluminum stands. There’s so much order in this game, it’s a wonder people don’t all wear the same colors to the games! Wait, they do? Well, you know the last time I saw uniforms this consistent and well-arranged? Soviet Russia, my friends, the largest totalitarian regime currently standing on the planet. That’s the road to serfdom, people, and you pay eighty bucks a jersey for it! If you’re that keen on matching, I’ll buy you an Aeroflot ticket to Leningrad myself so you can be somewhere you feel more comfortable, Ivan.

(Steve, stop looking at me like that! People on the internet LOVE me. And I would buy anyone who disagrees with me a ticket to Leningrad, I would. St. Petersburg? Florida? Why would I send anyone to hang with a bunch of retirees? Do I pay you? Where am I again?)

Oh, and you’ve played in your backyard using a spare pair of flipflops and a stolen traffic cone as first down markers, or even resorted to the “two-completions-makes-a-first-down” rule—why can’t football do this, too? The games are too long as is, so let’s just get rid of the meddling regulators in black and white and just let the players decide what makes a first down or not? And as for seating, let the people figure that out. Stampedes are the natural byproduct of competition, and those crushed by them? Their body parts can earn a fair price on the open market like every other good, like babies and Honda Accords do.

And who cares what goes in players’ bodies? It’s not for the Federal Government to decide that, or even care. Remember Tony Mandarich? What a specimen he was, and he was hopped up on every imaginable kind of supplement the government wants you to believe is harmful: horse testosterone, distilled monkey semen, nandraolone, HGH, stanazolol, Tylenol PM, Tylenol AM, Tylenolalone, pure hydrogen enemas, espresso eye drops, methamphetamine gummy bears, morphine… he had it all, and look at what it did for him.

See? He looks just like that now, but with a second head. He’s twice as free!

Why this is any concern of the federal government is beyond me, since both he and his second head are doing just fine last I checked. Heck, I could be on the last quaalude in the Western Hemisphere right now, and you wouldn’t know. I’m not! I’m not not on the last quaalude! Freedom!

Oh, and most importantly, it’s not the job of the federal government to tell you how to gamble on football. It’s just not. You should be able to set a fair price on points, point-shaving, intentional injuries and mid-game assassinations as your whim in accordance with the laws of the free-market. How else will we develop the bullet-proof players of the future without the invisible hand of the market whisking away the weak, non-bulletproof players of yesterday from the field? What you do with your money is none of the federal government’s business, even when it comes to paying a bookie thirty large to put mescaline in Tim Tebow’s cereal prior to a big rivalry game. Freedom!

And one final note: under a Ron Paul presidency–when it happens, not if!–you’ll get your gambling winnings back not in this imaginary scrap you call cash, but in the only thing of real value besides freedom: Spanish doubloons.

I’m Ron Paul, and I think I’m running for President. Thank you all, whoever you are, and wherever I am.

Ron Paul is running for President as a Republican in 2008. If you have never touched a girl, you have to vote for him. It’s in the Constitution.

–Zybrowka Vodka. Drink of the gods. We could drink a half a bottle and run a 5K through the middle of Dekalb Avenue during rush hour IN the variable lane. Scratch that–“have” run a 5K through the middle of Dekalb Avenue during rush hour. With the police “pacing” us.

–Coffee. Jamaica Blue Mountain, Waffle House swill poured into a human skull straight off the crack of Mario Batali’s sweaty ass crack…whatever. Caffeine buzz GIMME GIMME GIMME.

–Japanese bar mix. Oooh, god-kissed little soy sauce-encrusted soulfuckers, we will inhale you like you were strapped to our face in a feed bag.

–Pure Protein Shakes. You only think we drink these for healthy reasons, made with the mix, ice, buffalo milk yogurt (because buffalo are hardcore and cows aren’t, bitches) and whatever fruit/meat/spare postal packaging is lying on the counter. In truth, it’s for when you’re too lazy to actually fix a meal, much less going to the trouble of chewing one.

Which one of these Swindle staples does the NCAA ban? If you threw a few steak nuggests in, the protein shake might be out of the running as something a strength coach could give to an athlete. Coffee, too, thanks to the caffeine. (Zybrowka’s out too, along with hero-…wait. What fucking genius said we couldn’t give the kids heroin anymore? Jesus, these people…)

Demon java! Our second favorite Colombian import and NCAA bugbear. The first is Shakira, you devious, devious people…

Via the Fanhouse:

“The NCAA came out with rules which say that we can’t give muscle-building products.

“If we give [the athletes] weight-gain products, there must be a limit of 30 percent protein. That means all the rest, 70 percent, is bad stuff like sugar. Really, we couldn’t give them peanut butter or milk. I’ve never understood that rule.”

Again, when faced with the hydra of writing coherent policy, the NCAA swung its dull broadsword and beheaded itself in the process. (Which means the score is hydra, 20 or so heads, you, NCAA member institution, none.) Athletes seek out supplements on their own now, usually doing so with the expertise one can expect from an untrained 18 year old doing anything complex and difficult: shoddily, haphazardly, and often purchasing supplements prohibited by the NCAA’s banned substances list.

This list includes caffeine down to trace amounts in tests, meaning coaches might not be able to give players so much as a strong cup of coffee pre-game. Deacon Jones, for one, would be appalled. The L.A. Rams legend’s pregame ritual before every game: two cups of black coffee on an empty stomach.

(Throw a donut on top of that, and that’ll make you want to skin a troop of Boy Scouts alive for so much as breathing in your direction.)

From Penn State Associate Athletic Director Greg Myford:

“It became very apparent, very quickly, that most Penn State students want the first-come, first serve, system,” said Greg Myford, associate athletic director. “So that’s what we are going to do.”

Si se puede! The blue and white proletariat have spoken. Now if we could get them to get riled up enough to change the whole “Zombie Nation” cheer that’s caught on there recently, we’d be talking about real progress. (We can’t get hyped up about football to Europop. It’s almost as bad as nu-metal in that department. BOOM! Snort Ecstasy to it? Sure. Celebrate decapitating linebacker hits? No, sir.)

This need does not apply to Virginia Tech, who clearly needs no instruction on how to rock at home games in Blacksburg:

Given that, we’re tackling (pun intended) Football 101 using what we’ve got: and XBox, a fifty dollar video capture device, and Windows Movie Maker. This is the beta–there’s a few errors, the pacing’s odd, and we get cut off at the end due to sloppy editing.

However: watch it, critique it, and tell us what you want to see further digression/explanation of regarding football.

Part One: What You’re Looking At On A Typical Play.

Short attention span theatre, the radio version, returns tonight with EDSBS Live!, the show so exciting it requires unnecessary! punctuation! just to capture its excitement! Our guest tonight will be Michael David Smith of Football Outsiders, who will discuss the upcoming NFL Draft. We’re talking about the draft because no one, repeat, no one is more knowledgeable than you when it comes to draft predictions, and NFL executives can listen to tonight’s broadcast and save millions of misspent signing bonuses actually listening to people who watched these people play for four years.

What: EDSBS Radio

When: 8:00 p.m.–9:00 p.m. EST

Where: On the EDSBS channel at Now Live.

How: To call in? (310) 984-7600. You may also register at Now Live and participate in the live chat, where we’ll be taking comments and working them into the broadcast. Even if they make fun of our heavy breathing into the mike and audible belching.

Why: To put your “Adrian Peterson is the next Curtis Enis” boast on the record for posterity, sucka.

Who: Peter Bean of Burnt Orange Nation and Orson from this website, along with special guest Michael David Smith of Football Outsiders.

To prepare ahead of time, your study list appears below. The four questions for this week:

1. Who’s your favorite, non-obvious pick in the draft this year who you actually watched play?

2. Who’s your RADIOACTIVE BIOHAZARD DO NOT TOUCH AAAIIIIGGGHHH pick to avoid in this draft? We troy smith have no troy smith definite opinions on this. troy smith

3. Who’s your favorite college stud who failed to find success in the pros? Again, we have no leanings here.

Cough cough WUERFFEL cough cough

4. In the big draft board of life, where were you? Are you a first round bust right now? An unsigned camp invitee turned all-pro? An Arena League legend doing well in your niche? We want to know.

Orson’s totally sure he knows what he is, but you’ll have to listen tonight to find out.

Buffaloes! Tonight we dine…at Applebee’s!!!

This article on how wickedly strong your local offensive lineman is drives home the point in a number of ways. First, it mentions that OL Hypolite can back squat 665 pounds, best on the Colorado squad, and more weight than you care to think about putting on the frame of your car, much less your spine. It also has the Buff’s Thursday workout, which has our breakfast rising in our throats just looking at it:

* Over Head Squat 3×6
* Hang Clean 6
* Lateral Lung 3×6
* 30 Leg Ext. 3×6
* Bench Press 8
* DB Post Delt 3×6
* DB French Press 3×6
* WTD Inverted Rows 2×10
* Atomic Drop 2×30

Most of these should be self explanatory (the French press is a tricep exercise), however one definitely isn’t: the Atomic Drop. Our crack research skills (Google. What!) got us a good guess, and yippee! it involves Atlas Stones, the same 100 pound rocks the World’s Strongest Men contestants are forever lifting and dropping. Atomic Drops, we guess, are repetitions of lifting over head and dropping to the ground, done in sets of thirty.

Sometimes, this is easier typed than done, as evidenced by this guy who gets pwn3d by the stones with his kids watching.

Good for him, though. We’d crap ourselves trying to do one. Now excuse us, we have a chicken biscuit to go cough up.

P.S. Over/under on comments suggesting that the workout “doesn’t look bad:” four, we’re guessing.

Call in at (310) 984-7600

Listen in and chat at EDSBS Live! Remember! Punctuation=Xcitement!

The four questions, again:

1. What do you know about your team going into spring practice?

2. Better still…what don’t you know about your team going into spring?

3. What’s your offseason coping mechanism?

4. What’s a badass death?

Hear you then. –O.

Orson/Stranko,

PS….Do I get any sponsor money?

No on the sponsor money, but we were flattered nonetheless, especially since he’s going to have to go around with EDSBS on his car tags long after we’ve sold the domain to a Mexican bootleg pharma site. (Mexican Viagra! Now with added powdered donkey penis for flavor and potency!)

So we said what the hell–sure. After all, if any fan of any team could legally lay claim to owning a site written by Florida alums, it’s an Auburn grad in 2006. Plus it’s a sentiment any college football fan must by definition agree with: every day should be Saturday, really. It’s a transcendent message that disregards team affiliation.

The story comes full circle now as Mr. Baddley’s got his license plate. We can honestly say it’s the most beautiful thing we’ve ever seen, including newborn infants, the sunrise over the Gulf of Siam, and Ike Hilliard’s “Brake ‘n Shake” touchdown versus Florida State in 1996.

The plate is still available in 50 out of 51 license plate-issuing principalities. Hurry before supplies run out!

Excuse us, while we wipe a tear away.

The car was traveling south on 5th, which is a one-way northbound street, according to police. Patin’s blood alcohol level was measured at 0.165 and 0.158 during a field test, according to police reports.

0.165 is good and drunk, for those of you not fond of using the in-bar breathalyzer to track your relative position on BAC Everest, which means that even if an athlete like Patin had given himself a modicum of sobering up before climbing in the car, he was likely good and hammered at one point in the evening. For someone living in Boise in January, we’d call this sober–a position the police don’t seem inclined to agree with, unfortunately.

Thus 2007 begins the same way 2006 ended for Boise: a two point score, a sure sign of their growing football influence and power, earning them a tie with West Virginia for the Fulmer Cup lead. They’re so good at two-pointers using misdirection, both those involving one-way streets or fantastic body language play fakes:

It was by far my worst week since I started writing this column, and from a historical standpoint, I hadn’t had a 2-8 week since 1992. Then, I shut it down for the season, and came back strong the next year; this time, I’ll ride it out. Certainly, the first part of my 2006 was considerably better than the first part of my 1992, so my hope is that it’s just a blip, and I can come back this week with some winners.

For the season, I still sit at 57-43, a winning percentage of 57%, not dissimilar to my winning percentage of 58% last season. Last season at this time, by winning percentage was around 52-54%. Lots of road teams and favorites this week. Here are the selections:

THURSDAY:

Louisville (-6) v. RUTGERS

First things first, I think Rutgers is a good team. That said, I do not believe they are an ‘8-0 team,’ if that makes any sense; I think their schedule to date has papered over some deficiencies. Wins over Illinois and Ohio look better now than they did at the time, but the win over UNC looks worse, and their only noteworthy wins are over the rather modest collection of South Florida, Navy, and Pitt. When you consider that Navy lost its QB in the 1Q that win is not as impressive; even if you do not downgrade Rutgers for that win it is a relatively light resume. Of more note is that while the Rutgers D has been great this season, they have yet to face a truly good O; no doubt they did a good job against the Pitt passing game and against the Navy running game (with the obvious caveat), but they have yet to face an offense that truly has any balance. In fact, while it is obvious that Louisville will have the best passing game that Rutgers has faced this season, given the Navy QB situation I think it may also be true that the Louisville O may also present the best running game they have faced. Given the weak offenses they have played, I give the Rutgers D little margin for error, and there seems to be plenty. Rutgers did well against Pitt QB Palko, but much less well against USF QB Grothe; even UNC QB Dailey had a pretty good game against the Rutgers D. In any event, the Louisville passing game is on a much different level than any of this lot. Rutgers has been pretty good against the run, but UConn freshman RB Brown–a decent back, but not this good–absolutely tore them up for 199 yards in their last game; normally, you could just dismiss this as an aberration, but given that they’ve really played no other decent RBs this season, it’s of particular note. The Rutgers passing game is nonexistent–there’s really no reason that a QB that has a running game as good as Rutgers does should be so ineffective, but he is ( 5.97 ypp, with a 5-7 ratio)–but Rutgers has a good running game and they will get their yards, little doubt. But given that Louisville will be able to pretty much ignore the Rutgers passing game they should be able to keep them in check. In the final analysis, while Louisville’s O will be kept in check somewhat, I do not think they will be stopped and Rutgers’ one-dimensional O will not be able to keep up. As long as Louisville can keep their heads after last week they should get ahead of this number.

Ray Rice: will attempt to completely demolish the BCS picture tonight.

SATURDAY:

ILLINOIS (-3) v. Purdue

I think Illinois turned it around a while back but they have yet to turn it into any end product. Since the Ohio game, they have played Penn State and Wisconsin tough on the road, and Ohio State tough at home–three of the four best teams in the Big 10–but they have yet to manage a win. You wouldn’t guess it, but Illinois has a pretty good D; in Big 10 play, they’ve only given up 109 ypg rushing ( 3.04 ypc) and 179 ypg passing (6.03 ypp) with a 4-4 ratio. Purdue’s O this season is not your typical Tiller O, and they have struggled against good defenses. Wisconsin held them to a FG and Penn State shut them out; Illinois’ D is not in that class, but it is not too far off and I think the Purdue O–which only gained 373 yds against a Mich St D that, outside of Indiana, probably has the worst pass D in the conference–will struggle to move the ball against them; the only QB who has had a good game against the Illinois D is Wisc QB Stocco, and please note that OSU QB Smith and Iowa QB Tate have been among their opponents. The Purdue D is pretty weak; to illustrate, they gave up nearly 400 yards to a very weak Penn State O. They have, in particular, struggled against the run; opposing RBs have averaged 5.73 ypc in Big 10 play. Illinois has averaged 161 ypg rushing (4.46 ypc) in Big 10 play; furthermore, they have averaged 134 ypg and 3.98 ypc the last three weeks against PSU, Wisc, and OSU. They will find the going easier this week against the Purdue D. Illinois QB Williams is not great but he is serviceable as a passer, and so long as he avoids mistakes it should be enough to let the Illinois running game and D take this one.

Navy (-12.5) v. EASTERN MICHIGAN

Navy has suffered a downgrade at the QB position with the season-ending injury to Hampton, but his replacement Kaheaku-Enhada has stepped it up and the net result appears to only be a small minus. If you eliminate the Rutgers game, where he had to come off the bench and was not entirely prepared, under Kaheaku-Enhada the Navy O has rushed for 246 yds against ND, and 435 yds against Duke; Navy’s overall offensive effectiveness does seem to be less–partly because Hampton was a better passer–but they still apparently have enough to overwhelm teams that are not their equivalents (given their authoritative win over an improving Duke team last week). EMU’s D has not been too bad in MAC play this season–21 ppg and 337 ypg–but their run D is very average, giving up 179 ypg and 4.70 ypc, and they have had trouble with mobile QBs; opposing QBs are averaging 42 ypg rushing on average, and those that can run have. Navy’s D is poor statistically, but as I have pointed out elsewhere they tend to give up considerably less points than you would expect given the yardage they give up ( i.e., they bend, but don’t break) and the EMU O is not particularly prolific; EMU has yet to score more than 21 points this season and they are averaging 16 ppg and 292 ypg. Adding to their offensive problems are injuries; QB Schmitt–the slightly better of the two QBs EMU rotates–did not play last week and he is listed as questionable. EMU’s O consists of mostly the QB running or throwing–the two leading rushers on the team are their QBs, so being limited at that position hurts them even more than one would usually expect. In addition, their top RB is out for the season, and their next RB in line, Harrison–and, keep in mind that we are talking about someone who only has 116 yards for the season–missed the last game and is questionable for this week. Navy’s pass D is really bad, but the EMU O is so limited that they will not be able to take advantage, and I think Navy will win this game with ease.

EMU!

Rice (+14) v. TULSA

I have been a big fan of Tulsa the last couple of seasons; I think this is the first time I am picking against them. Early in the season, I stated that I expected Rice’s O shift in scheme to take root earlier than normal due to talent at the WR position; and it has, already. The Rice O was stuffed against UCLA, Texas, and Florida State, but against non-BCS opponents they have averaged 36 ppg and 409 ypg, and they seem to be getting better as the season progresses. Since the Florida State game, Rice’s running game is averaging 196 ypg and 5.35 ypc, and Rice’s passing game is averaging 239 ypg and 6.82 ypp, with a 15-3 ratio. Tulsa has a good pass D but they will be hard-pressed to shut down the Rice pass O the way they have been playing. And, the Tulsa run D has been exploitable; they have only faced one elite run O–Navy–but they have struggled against a couple of mid-level running games; BYU and Houston went for an average of 230 ypg and 5.88 ypc. Rice’s problem is on the other side of the ball; their D ranks among the worst in the nation. Despite this, Tulsa’s O this season has not been overly prolific–25 ppg and 334 ypg in ConfUSA play this season–and they do not seem to be the sort of team that is going to go off for a lot of points (their season high against 1-A opposition this season is 35 points against Memphis). Additionally, I think Tulsa will be a little down after losing the game to Houston last week, a loss that puts a serious dent in their chances to defend their ConfUSA title. I think Tulsa will win, but I think Rice will score enough points to keep it close to this number.

Houston (-4.5) v. SOUTHERN METHODIST

Houston needs to keep it together this week after their win over Tulsa last week, but as long as they can do that they should be fine. SMU has definitely improved this season, but I think this may be beyond them. Houston’s D is not too strong, and they’ve had some uneven performances; they gave up over 400 yards to Miami (Fla) and La-Lafayette, and over 500 yds to Central Florida, but they held Tulane, UTEP, and Tulsa to less than 250 yards each, and held Southern Miss to 325. Fortunately, even if the Houston D does not show up, they are unlikely to get torched by the SMU O. SMU’s running game is very modest; outside of a 226 yard performance rushing the ball against Arkansas State, they have maxed out at 133 yards, and they are averaging 100 ypg ( 3.13 ypc) in conference play. The SMU passing game is a little more effective–199 ypg (6.87 ypp) in conference play–but, once again, this is not overly prolific and they are not likely to be in a position to exploit the inconsistent Houston D. SMU has a good D–or, better put, a good rush D (56 ypg in conference play)–and, much like their D, the Houston running game has been inconsistent (198 yds v. UTEP, 227 yds v. Tulsa, but only 23 yds v. La-Lafayette), and I do not think the Houston rushing game will be a factor. The one area in which Houston has not been inconsistent is their passing game. QB Kolb has always been legit, and he is having a good season; 66% completions, 8.93 ypp, and a 20-3 ratio against 1-A opponents, and note that those numbers include games against Miami (Fla) and Tulsa, two of the better pass defenses in the nation. As it happens, SMU’s pass D is very poor; for the season, they have given up 262 ypg and 7.28 ypp, despite facing a very modest slate of QBs; the passing Os they have faced that I would rate in the top half of the country are Texas Tech (against a QB making his first start), Tulane, and UTEP–who averaged 344 ypg, 7.64 ypp, with a 9-2 ratio–and they have also faced North Texas and Arkansas State, who I rate as two of the three worst passing offenses in the nation. Certainly, Kolb will be the best QB they have faced, and I think he will have a big day; given that the line is so short, I think that even with their other inconsistencies the Houston edge here will be more than enough to get ahead of this number.

South Carolina (+13.5) v. FLORIDA

I think Florida is a great team with one of the best defenses in the nation, but their offense is just too inconsistent to cover this sort of number against legitimate opposition. South Carolina’s rush D is apparently exploitable, if a team is good enough (witness Arkansas’ 273 yards last week); Florida is probably not good enough. Florida is averaging 150 ypg and 4.42 ypc rushing on the season; when you take out the games against the poor defenses on their schedule–specifically, UCF and Kentucky–those numbers drop to 130 ypg and 3.88 ypc. South Carolina held down the Auburn running game (126 yds), and also held a decent Vandy running game to 133 yds. Florida’s offensive strength is their passing game, which is efficient but not overly prolific; 198 ypg and 7.91 ypp with a 12-8 ratio in SEC play, and they have only gone over 200 yards against Kentucky and Vandy. The South Carolina pass D has been uneven this season; they have dominated lesser QBs and struggled against the better ones. Florida’s QBs certainly rank among the better they have faced but I am willing to bet that even if they have a good game it will not result in too much production. On the other side of the ball, South Carolina was shut out by Georgia, but recovered to play well against the other strong Ds they have faced, scoring 17 against Auburn and 24 against UT, averaging 370 yds on offense in those games. Florida’s D is probably a step up from those units but it is not a massive jump. SCar is stating that Mitchell will start at QB this week, but Newton may very well play in a backup role; in any event, it is likely that HC Spurrier will use his QBs in the most effective manner possible. Florida’s pass D has been strong this season, but SCar presents more of a challenge at WR than any team the Gators have faced thus far this season, and I expect this to be their worst performance against the pass this season. SCar had no running game last week, but that was primarily down to an injury to RB Boyd (undisclosed prior to the game), but he will be back this week and he will be able to provide a little balance. Florida will almost certainly win this one at home, but Spurrier will make them sweat for it and I like for it to be close at the final gun.

Steve Spurrier. We’re familiar.

Texas Christian (-8) v. NEW MEXICO

New Mexico has stepped it up since inserting QB Porterie into the starting lineup, winning the 3 games in which he has started. I think the task before him is too tall an order this week, however; the TCU D will be by far the best he has faced, with the possible exception of Wyoming’s; in that game (admittedly, before he became the starter) he was ineffective, going 7-17 for 68 yards. The TCU D is comparable to Wyoming’s strong D; they have given up more than 20 points once, to BYU’s offensive machine, and they are giving up an average of 13 ppg this season, despite having played Big 12 teams Baylor and Texas Tech. Outside of BYU QB Beck, no other QB has had a particularly good game against them (Utah QB’s Ratliff’s statistics were very average, outside of a 49 yd TD pass that was tipped by a defender and went right to his WR); all other QBs are averaging 5.33 ypp against them with a 3-7 ratio. New Mexico’s running game will likely not provide too much assistance for QB Porterie; they are only averaging 93 ypg and 2.87 ypc this season, and the TCU D is giving up an average of 62 ypg and 2.54 ypc and have only allowed Utah to hit 100 yards rushing against them (129). TCU’s O hit a bit of a snag last week–29 FD, 416 yds, but only 25 points–but I think they will be more focused and do a better job this week. New Mexico’s D started the season pretty strong; oddly enough, they seem to have started trending downward coinciding with the insertion of QB Porterie into the lineup; they have given up 29 ppg and 344 ypg to UNLV, Utah, and CSU, none of which can really be described as having a good O (Utah’s is fair, but the others are poor). Against mid-level teams with conventional passing games (UTEP, Wyo, UNLV, Utah, and CSU) New Mexico has given up 240 ypg and 6.92 ypp with a 12-5 ratio. I expect TCU QB Ballard–7.03 ypp this season–to at least match that level of production. Of perhaps more importance for the TCU O, Ballard ran the ball 14 times last week for 84 yards; given that he was injured in the first game of the season and reinjured in the Utah game, this suggests that he is back to full strength and will be able to run the offense to its full potential henceforth. New Mexico has only given up 110 ypg and 3.22 ypc this season, but for the most part they have avoided good rushing attacks this season. That said, they have been pretty good against the good running Ds they have faced (AFA, Mizzou), but TCU has been pretty solid running the ball this season–157 ypg and 4.06 ypc–and they will be able to move the ball on a good New Mexico D. I expect the TCU D to handle the New Mexico O, and for the TCU O to do enough to get ahead of this number on the road.

OKLAHOMA STATE (-16.5) v. Baylor

OSU QB Reid has had a great season, but had a howler last week–much like I did. I am willing to throw that game out–Texas is the class of the Big 12 once again, and playing in Austin is never easy–and, if I do, there’s little doubt that Reid’s season has been among the best in the nation. He has thrown for 10.35 ypp with a 12-4 ratio, even after you throw out the games against Sun Belt opponents. The slate of opponents he has faced has not been especially strong, but Baylor does not bring a particularly strong pass D to the contest; they have given up 7.07 ypp with a 18-12 ratio this season, despite playing Army and Colorado, two of the weaker pass Ds in the nation. And, as impressive as the OSU passing game has been, their running game has arguably been better; 192 ypg and 5.29 ypc in Big 12 play, and only Texas has held them to less than 193 yards. Baylor held K State’s weak rushing game to 45 yards in their Big 12 opener, but since that game conference opponents are dominating them on the ground, averaging 227 ypg and 5.89 ypc. While most of these opponents have had good running games, you would be hard-pressed to argue that any of them are definitively better than the OSU running game. As good as things look on the offensive side of the ball for OSU, things look nearly as good for their much-maligned D. Baylor has gone to a Texas Tech-style offense this season, so their running game is not overly productive; 59 ypg and 3.01 ypc in Big 12 play. Against the pass, OSU is definitely exploitable; they have given up 229 ypg and 8.40 ypp with a 10-1 ratio in conference play. Fortunately for them, Baylor starting QB Bell is out for the season, and his replacement Szymanski is a downgrade; statistically, as a passer, Bell and Szymanski are comparable (Bell, 6.74 ypp with a 19-10 ratio; Szymanski, 6.83 ypp with a 2-2 ratio); but last week in his first start (against Texas Tech), Szymanski had an astonishing 22 rushes (for 25 yards) and 30 passes–and he suffered 6 sacks on the day, mostly without blitzing. I would rate the OSU DL as better than TT’s–OSU has 30 sacks on the season, whereas TT has 24 even after the 6 last week–and I think that while Szymanski will almost certainly have a better game than he did last week, he will throw shorter passes that will be easier for the OSU D to deal with, and as a result they should be able to defend the pass better than they have thus far this season. I think the OSU O will be rampant this week and while Baylor will score some points they will not be able to keep up with the OSU O.

Oregon State (-2) v. UCLA

UCLA’s O impressed me last week but I think that was more down to the Cal D than the UCLA O. Cal is certainly a machine on O, but they do not have the best D; in any event, Oregon State has a stronger D and UCLA’s O will face a stiffer challenge this week. For the season, UCLA is averaging 108 ypg and 3.75 ypc rushing against BCS opponents. If last week is any indication, they will run the ball some but I do not think the running game will not be a deciding factor this week. OSU has recovered nicely from their flattening by Boise RB Johnson in week two, and they are only giving up 78 ypg and 2.47 ypc in Pac 10 play. OSU held the Cal running game to 132 yds rushing and held USC to 79 (albeit helped by USC abandoning the run after they fell behind); I cannot imagine that UCLA will match either of those teams’ levels of production. UCLA QB Cowan appears to have had a good game last week–but, in reality, he only had a good first half; after going 12-20, 203 yds in the 1H, he finished up the game going 10-20, 126 yds in the 2H–and until the final drive, when the score was 38-17 and Cal gave up on the game (the bastards), he had been 5-13 for 86 yards in the 2H. As a result, I am more inclined to view his performance as an aberration and not a sign of significant improvement on his part. UCLA QB Olson may suit up this weekend, but as I have pointed out previously, there’s not a whole lot of improvement even if you make the QB change; Cowan is averaging 6.48 ypp with a 5-6 ratio, and Olson is averaging 6.63 ypp with a 5-5 ratio against a slightly easier slate of pass defenses. Oregon State was thrown on by Cal, WSU, and USC–but these teams arguably have three of the four best QBs in the Pac 10, and almost certainly have the three best sets of WR; against Washington and ‘Zona State–teams closer to UCLA in terms of passing attacks–OSU gave up 5.02 ypp with an 0-2 ratio. UCLA will probably outperform those numbers this week, but I do not expect the UCLA passing game to have too much success. On the other side of the ball, OSU has gotten their running game going in Pac 10 play; while it is not especially prolific, RB Bernard is a decent back, and they are averaging 106 ypg and 3.28 ypp. It is unlikely they will have too much success against a strong UCLA run D, but I still expect them to outproduce the Bruins on the ground. The OSU advantage on O is in the passing game; OSU QB Moore has developed as a passer this season, and while he hasn’t thrown a lot of TDs–only 4 TDs in 6 Pac 10 games–he has had good production, throwing for 241 ypg and an impressive 8.75 ypp. UCLA has struggled against the pass this season; ND QB Quinn took them apart when he needed to, and for the season they have given up 7.44 ypp with a 15-8 ratio. These are not overly impressive numbers, and they are even less impressive when considering that without games against ‘Zona and Stanford–by far, the worst passing games in the Pac 10–those numbers rise to 8.37 ypp with a 14-4 ratio, and their last two opponents have each averaged over 10 ypp. OSU has already won at ‘Zona and at Washington this season, and I think they will keep it going this week in the Rose Bowl.

Other Games of Note:

ARKANSAS (-5.5) v. Tennessee

This isn’t a play because I still have some issues with the Arkansas pass D–and, they’ll have their hands full this week against a strong Vol passing game–but if they are going to get QB play like they did last week they are going to be damn near impossible to beat. I rate the UT D pretty highly, but I was surprised at how well LSU was able to run on them last week; in addition, when you consider that UGA, SCar, and Marshall all moved the ball on the ground against UT–not to mention AFA–they are up against it here. Arkansas has as good as running game as there is in the SEC, and they should rush for somewhere in the neighborhood of 200 yards on Saturday. UT will not have an answer; the UT running game is pretty much nonexistent at this point, and while RB Coker is expected to play I would imagine his effectiveness will be limited and I do not believe the UT run game will be a factor. QB Ainge is a game-time decision, and while QB City of Crompton looked good last week, there is a world of difference between playing in front of your home fans and playing in Fayetteville. Super Arkansas CB Houston will shadow WR Meachem, and if he can limit his effectiveness, the UT passing game will be severely compromised, whether Ainge plays or not. I like Arkansas to take this one at home.

Dick, Johnson in same pic. If you don’t love this Arkansas roster, you have no sense of humor.

Oregon (+7.5) v. SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA

USC’s problems are well-documented, and despite their 42-0 win over lowly Stanford, they were quite fortunate to get to that number. Part of me thinks that at some point they will just turn it on, and start playing up to their potential–sort of like they did for the last 17 minutes or so of the Oregon State game–but another part of me thinks that it is too big an ask to overcome their talent losses in a conference as deep as the Pac 10 is this season. Still, even at this point they must like their chances to go to the Rose Bowl–all they need to do is win home games against Oregon and Cal, and a road game at struggling UCLA, and they will be the conference champs; and, if they can add a home win against ND to the mix, they can very possibly supplant Florida and Auburn as the most likely 1-loss team to stake their claim to the title game. Still, I actually came close to playing the Ducks here, until I realized that Oregon may very well be a fraud; considering the dubious nature of their win over Oklahoma, their best clear-cut win is over ‘Zona State–it looked good at the time, but in retrospect is much less impressive, and the win over Fresno–a game that was tied with 5 minutes to go–looks almost embarassing at this point. Cal and WSU are the two best teams they have played, and they lost to both of them–handily. USC’s conference resume, at least, looks little better; they struggled against a really bad ‘Zona team, and barely beat everyone else they have played (save Stanford), with the exception of the Beavers, to whom they lost. So, I don’t really know what to think. I rate these teams as pretty even, and if I had to, I’d go with Oregon this week because while the Ducks will be fully focused on the Trojans, I can’t help but think that USC will be more focused on next week’s game with Cal than this week’s with Oregon. Plus, +7.5 is a magic number that you always get excited about having.