Please give a surly welcome to EDSBS gambling magnate Doug Gillett.

RISK LEVEL 1: Picking one of the “Manager’s Favorites” on a whim at Blockbuster
Florida -28.5 vs. Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Honestly, what can I say about this game that Pieter Bruegel the Elder didn’t depict much more vividly in The Triumph of Death? This was going to be a blowout even before Lane Kiffin’s ego started writing checks that neither his body nor his playbook could cash; now that his trash talk has caused the Cyberdyne Systems Model T-1000 known to us humanoids as “Urban Meyer” to become sentient and program itself to terminate him with extreme prejudice, CBS may, for the first time, be forced to rate an NCAA football broadcast “TV-MA” for extreme graphic violence. The only way Tennessee squeaks under the four-TD line is if Monte Kiffin can (sorta) bail his kid out by dialing up enough defense to keep the Gators’ slightly re-jiggered offense from running completely wild. But given that the UT offense might be lucky to score at all behind turnover machine Jonathan Crompton, that becomes a taller order still. Florida whacked the Vols by 24 last year, on the road, with the Gator offense demonstrably not even trying that hard; this year’s game will make that one look like a minor disagreement between friends.

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The first matchup I need to cover this week, as it is integral to the success of all the others, is Beard +14 vs. Itch. See, after I got laid off a couple months ago I made a vow that I wasn’t going to trim my beard until I got a formal job interview, and while I had achieved a pretty cool Mountain Man/Taliban look as of this past weekend, I really couldn’t point to a single good thing that’s happened since I started growing it out (the Dawgs’ loss to Okie State and last week’s atrocious picks record being only the latest miseries). So on Tuesday I risked a week’s worth of acute itchyface by sawing it back to a nice, manageable Colin-Farrell-stumbling-out-of-some-random-chick’s-apartment-at-6-a.m. scruff, and I have yet to regret it:

Bad beard mojo, begone! Let the healing (and better picks) begin!

RISK LEVEL 1: Drinking a Starbucks venti French Roast and eating two Burrito Supremes from Taco Bell before going on a long car trip: South Carolina +7 at Georgia, 7 p.m. Saturday

Considering how extraordinarily lucky either of these teams were to have even scored seven points on opening weekend, the touchdown spread in this matchup already looks a little shady. And this series has been a defensive slugfest in even the most favorable of circumstances: Only twice in the Mark Richt era has the margin of victory in this game been more than one score, and the average outcome has been a Georgia victory by a mere 6.5 points. (more…)

Do you like gambling? Of course you do. For entertainment purposes only, we now provide your choice picks for the opening weekend of actual live football. Yes, actual live football where you could, in a crazy hypothetical world not of our universe, place money on the results of various games. You wouldn’t do that, either, just like you wouldn’t sometimes lick your finger after scratching your ear just to remind yourself how bad earwax tastes, or masturbate in the bathroom at work. No, of course not. So, enjoy, but only in a hypothetical manner, of course, as Free Money Doug takes you through your fun bets that cannot be made in real life for cash money because that is illegal thanks to nannying Baptists who will die and miss all the fun stuff in life.

RISK LEVEL 1: Eating a Filet-O-Fish right before bedtime

Troy -7 at Bowling Green, 7pm Thursday

The only thing more surprising than Bowling Green firing Gregg Brandon (44-30 at BGSU, 2-1 in bowls) last season was whom they replaced him with: Dave Clawson, last seen yanking out the last Jenga block that toppled the Phil Fulmer regime at Tennessee with his overly complicated (for Jonathan Crompton, at least) “Clawfense.”

“You need to miss three reads, then fumble.” “Right, fumble, then miss my reads.”

Installing that system at BGSU should cause somewhat fewer problems, given that it’s at least somewhat similar to what Brandon and Urban Meyer before him were running, but this is still not an offense I’d be stacking my fondest hopes and dreams behind. Nor is their defense, which returns only three starters, one I’d be counting on to stop a Troy attack that brings nearly all of its top skill players back from 2008’s Sun Belt title campaign. (more…)

Programming note: Swindle is flitting about the Metro ATL area like an overly excited, be-fauxhawked schoolgirl and I’m typing through a haze that makes me wish Prohibition had never been repealed. Here is some highly subjective and illogical soothsaying. Game thread up a little later. Go cure cancer.

#23 Pittsburgh @ Connecticut

HOLLY, FOR NO REAL REASON OTHER THAN LOLZ: The Wannstache is a master of his craft.  His craft is finding ways to lose juuuust enough games for no reason to make us all ignore him, then start winning just to piss us off. Pitt finds itself somehow sitting pretty at 8-3, and none of you had any idea, did you? Be that as it may, this is still the team that lost to Bowling Green.  Oooh, and Rutgers (and yes, we are very sorry we weren’t around for Mike Teel’s one-man show last night).  McCoy runs thisaway, Brown runs thataway, and this one’ll come down to whoever can kill enough of the clock in Q4. Huskies for the upset.

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Texas A&M @ #2 Texas

HOLLY, QUASI-RATIONAL: Sorry to make an afterthought of you, Agros, but the question here isn’t a Texas win or loss, but a Texas win blowout-y enough to maintain its eensy BCS lead over Oklahoma or not.  Still worried about the ‘Horns run game?  They can leave it at home, thanks to A&M’s very gracious (91st-ranked) pass defense.  Light ‘em up, Battle Cattle.

Grateful for: My veryown Daddy, for teaching me to recognize a 4-3 defense and how to grip a football before I had the training wheels off my first bike.

ORSON, DOING MACK BROWN TWO-STEP. If there is a crack, Mack Brown will be up between the sticky buttocks with a fierceness that will shock and astonish those who have never seen the politician in full attack mode. As much as we’d like Texas A&M to extend the dominion of Barlorath, the 5-headed visigoth spirit who rules the last three weeks of the season with a bloody sceptre and orders barked through a platinum megaphone, and disturb the Longhorns’ claim to a national title slot, the Longhorns are in resume mode. Snap to, Slothrop: them bombs is comin’ down hard and fast all day. The Aggies electoral map shows massive landslide for Senator Brown.

Grateful for: My dog, who holds down the couch with authority.

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Michigan @ #10 Ohio State

ORSON, QUASI-RATIONAL. Two hypothetical scenarios automatically invoke giggles of free-radical schadenfreude molecules collecting in the lungs and brain: Michigan somehow beating Ohio State this week, and Alabama somehow losing to Auburn next week.

We really don’t care who wins in either one, but the complete explosive disaster of either scenario is just brilliantly compelling to someone fascinated with crashes and explosions of all kinds. Ohio State can avoid this by playing offense against Michigan’s defense, who will give up long spectacular yards passing to a freelancing Terrelle Pryor.

HOLLY, HATEFUL BUT RATIONAL: This matchup might actually be interesting in a couple years when RichRod and Pryor are fully gestated in their new homes. Not this season, though. And not just because it’s being played in Columbus (although that doesn’t help). What does help: Michigan having a worse record than Tennessee. Hee.

Tennessee @ Vanderbilt

HOLLY, WAITING FOR DEATH: I’m sorry, the above should read “Michigan has a worse record than Tennessee until Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt, which they will. Lose. To Vanderbilt.” Except that Michigan kicks off a half hour earlier, so by the time we’re 3-8, they’ll be 3-9. This one thought will be all that sustains me tomorrow.

ORSON, IRRATIONAL. Vanderbilt, big against a Tennessee team in complete tattershambles. Saying anything else would spoil the delight of typing those words with a certainty approaching geological fact.
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Notre Dame @ Navy

HOLLY, QUASI-RATIONAL: Navy possesses what may be my favorite stat line in college football this year: 2nd in the country in rushing, 119th in passing. (Second favorite stat line: Jimmy Clausen’s 13 interceptions.) A Notre Dame defense that has been merely all right against that bitchcake schedule won’t contain Shun White and Eric Kettani both. Not for long, anyway.

ORSON, QUASI-RATIONAL: Ram Vela is still on the roster, meaning at any point he may fly into a horrified Jimmy Clausen and sack him for a drive-crippling loss. Navy has a winning record. Notre Dame is 1-16 in the Charlie Weis era against teams who have more wins than losses. Gravity pulls down. Girls with hats want attention. Zingers are an underappreciated snack food. A guy coughing repeatedly at a party though he has no apparent head cold is flatulent and covering up for it by theatrical hacking. We do not bet against immutable laws of nature, and a possession-killing offense like the Navy triple option means ND’s best weapon, Clausen and cast of receivers, spend too much time on the bench to get ND a road win.

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#11 Ohio St. at #24 Northwestern

HOLLY, QUASI-RATIONAL: Relax your bedtime grip on your Glocks, America. Ohio State has two losses, and the universe can breathe easy, safe from the specter of a third-straight Buckeyes champblahblahblahBig10bashing. Statistically, these teams are surprisingly well-matched, but….look, we’d all love to pick Northwestern, adorably ranked after a victory over Minnesota, but if pluck guaranteed wins, we’d be celebrating the single-digit ranking of Texas Christian (HOW DARE YOU PUSH US TO ACCEPT UTAH AS A LEGIT TEAM, HORNED FROGS).

ORSON, IRRATIONAL. The force is strong in the young one…

…but this is episode five, and he loses his hand to the Dark Lord.

Baylor at #4 Texas

ORSON, QUASI-RATIONAL. If Baylor had the chops on defense to hold Colt McCoy in check, we’d happily tiptoe over to the pond of tribute bets and salute Art Briles and Robert Griffin for revivifying Baylor football. (more…)

#21 Wake Forest @ Maryland

ORSON, COMPLETELY IRRATIONAL. Wake Forest will win because, like Indiana Jones in a fight, they will be punched, kicked, scratched, pushed face-first into something hot, and then the improbably pull victory out at the last second with a field goal, or by a safety, or by Maryland inept’ing there way out of sure victory. Jim Grobe will lose an eye, but his one-eyed visage will be the last thing you see.

HOLLY, ALSO IRRATIONAL BUT WITH CRITTERS. Let’s see, shut out last week by Al f’ing Groh…yep, they’re due. Maryland, recipient of this week’s ACC Roundelay Enjoy It While It Lasts Because It Won’t, Last That Is Tiara. FEAR THE TURTLE.

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#5 Texas vs. #1 Oklahoma
HOLLY, BLATANTLY IRRATIONAL: The Red River Shootout is all about spite, so allow me to oblige:  Oklahoma is a barren wasteland whose women look like they were born on the backs of tractors.  Texas for the upset, and damn the torpedoes.
ORSON, RATIONAL: Oklahoma will see some oddball defensive formations unseen on film, because that’s how Muschamp do, but Bradford will still operate relatively unhindered behind the Loadholt Line, Oklahoma’s first greatest asset as a football team and still more evidence that quality beef garnered in recruiting is the first step toward whipping ass in 360 degrees. (The only other team pushing people around on the same level: Alabama, another team with abundant burl on the lines.)

TCU loaded the box on them, and Bradford went ballistic; sit back, and they’ll rack up 200 yards passing and 200 yards rushing on you. Brian Orakpo might get pressure off the edge, but otherwise the lack of a consistent running game from Texas outside of Colt McCoy doing his best Tebow ‘07 imitation keeps Oklahoma firmly in control from the start, leading to the eventual disappointment for Oklahoma of blowing a game (OK State?) late in the schedule to spoil undefeated happiness.

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