RISK LEVEL 1: Watching the “awesometits.wmv” video your friend sent you on your work computer
Stanford -7.5 vs. California, 7:30 p.m.

What do you know: Turns out going full Costanza actually worked pretty well last week. OK, it didn’t work perfectly, but 3-2 still beats the 0-5s I was routinely putting up when I was going with my gut. (Stupid gut — it’s the one who told me AIG was “too big to fail” and that the guy who offered to sell me weed in a Vegas airport bathroom totally wasn’t a cop.) This week my gut’s been hinting that Stanford can’t possibly have a whole lot left in the tank after steamrolling Oregon and USC to the tune of 106 total points in back-to-back weeks, but if a major letdown was such a big risk for these guys, they probably would’ve lost to USC to begin with; as long as they’ve got Toby Gerhart (might some Heisman love be in line for this gentleman? Hello? Is this thing on?), they’ve got juice to spare. Maybe the one we should be asking those questions about is Cal — sure, they managed to come from behind to beat Arizona last week, but back-to-back big-game wins haven’t exactly been the forte of recent editions of the TedfordBot. (Don’t worry, though — when TedfordBot Vista comes out next year, all those problems will be solved. Really. We promise.)

RISK LEVEL 2: Peeing in front of a bunch of Georgia fans

Tennessee -16 vs. Vanderbilt, 7 p.m.

Following a world-class reaming from DEX-TAH MAH-CLUS-TAH and the Rebels, Tennessee returns home this weekend to lick their wounds, check in with their probation officers, and swat away a team who’s beaten them only once in their last 26 tries. Initial instinct was to say Tennessee’s defense was too banged-up to make a 16-point win a good bet, but then I remembered that only applies if the opponent has an offense, and Vandy doesn’t (100th or worse in every single major offensive category). The one thing Vandy has been able to do consistently this season is defend the pass, which means we could see the return of Bad Jonathan Crompton this week, but that’s only if Kiffin is dumb enough to put the game in his hands in the first place. Otherwise, he’ll simply wind up Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown and send them at the SEC’s worst run defense (just a smidge under 200 yards allowed per game), in which case a 16-point drubbing becomes that much more likely. Not much you can do about it, Vandy fans — just lie back and think of Nashville, and stay away from the Pilot stations while you’re at it.

RISK LEVEL 3: Asking for directions from a provocatively dressed lady on Ponce de Leon Avenue after midnight
Clemson -20.5 vs. Virginia, 3:30 p.m.

Those tapping their feet and waiting for Dabo Swinney to continue Tommy Bowden’s tradition of late-season collapses have pretty much run out of time — the Tigers are riding a five-game winning streak and have already clinched the Atlantic Division’s berth in the ACC title game. So with the hard part done and Virginia’s WTF upset mojo apparently spent (they’ve lost four in a row, by an average of 19 points), there’s no reason to think Clemson won’t cap off their sterling ACC run with a beatdown in Death Valley. Virginia’s 86th-ranked run defense doesn’t have much hope of stopping C.J. Spiller, not when he’s got Heisman voters to impress, and even if they do, Clemson won’t need all that many points to cover the spread against a team that’s only scored four offensive touchdowns in its last five games (and got one of those on a 2-yard drive at the very end of the game against Maryland). Really, the riskier bet is how long after this game UVA finally puts Al Groh out of his misery; I’m putting the over/under at three days.

RISK LEVEL 4: Going for it on fourth-and-2 from your own 28 with a six-point lead over the Indianapolis Colts
LSU straight up at Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m.

I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but I’m deviating from the formula on this one and sticking with my initial gut feeling (hence the elevated risk level; proceed at your own peril) — Tigers in a straight upset in Oxford, for the simple reason that we’ve yet to see Houston Nutt win consecutive meaningful games this season. Actually, there are other reasons; for one, Dexter McCluster isn’t going to have as easy a time ripping the LSU linebackers as he did Tennessee’s ailing corps, and the Tigers get Jordan Jefferson back from the ankle injury that kept him out of the Louisiana Tech game. Jefferson has been a satisfactory as opposed to great passer this year, but he’s managed to keep the ball out of opposing DBs’ hands (with a 12:4 TD:INT ratio so far); the Rebel defense has been superb at containing QBs yardage-wise, but have only picked off seven passes all year and are languishing in the bottom half of DI-A in terms of efficiency. If Dexter McCluster goes wild again or if Jefferson’s ankle gets re-injured and Jarrett Lee gets brought in, all bets are off, but otherwise I’ll stick with my initial read, thanks.

RISK LEVEL 5: Cutting in front of Mark Mangino in line at KFC

Utah State +23 vs. Boise State, 9:30 p.m. Friday

Three more games for the Broncos, three more opportunities to prove they belong in a BCS bowl, three more near-certain victories. But that doesn’t mean they can’t get chased a little in the process, and that’s been a surprisingly frequent occurrence for them when they’ve played on the road (Fresno State trailed them by only seven into the fourth quarter; turned in a so-so offensive performance at Tulsa and only won by a TD; had to withstand a furious comeback attempt from Louisiana Tech). Utah State is no more of an upset risk than their 3-7 record would suggest, but they do know how to score some points, and that could be enough to keep this game out of massive-blowout territory, particularly if BSU is looking ahead to next Friday’s de facto WAC title game against Nevada. I’ll return to the Costanza strategy here and go against my initial instinct to take Boise and the juice.

RISK LEVEL 1: Opening an e-mail with the subject line “Hey look at this”

Georgia -5 vs. Auburn, 7 p.m.

If nothing else is working…go full Costanza.

First of all, let me say that y’all are a more forgiving commenting community than I could’ve ever dreamed. My picks have been absolutely horrendous so far this season, but y’all have mostly refrained from ripping me the new asshole I so richly deserve. There’s no beating around the bush, though — I’ve gone 0-5 two straight weeks and it’s time to shake things up. So this week I’m picking the opposite of my first instinct for all five games. And since my first instinct was to wonder how in the holy hell Georgia’s sputtering offense is supposed to cover five points on an Auburn team that appears to have put its three-game schnide behind it, I am forced to assume that the oddsmakers know something I don’t and that Georgia is about to post a big win. That something might be Georgia’s running game, which at long last appears to be getting into a groove and is poised to rip through Auburn’s 93rd-ranked rush defense. Or maybe the guys in Vegas think Chris Todd’s recent resurgence is a mirage (only 12 completions against Ole Miss, even though they were long; run-’em-up numbers against a lousy Furman team). Either way, though, my abiding belief in an Auburn upset should be all the convincing you need to bet the house on the Dawgs. See how this works? It’s easy!

RISK LEVEL 2: Double-fisting tequila and scotch whisky at your 30th birthday party (not that I, uh, know anything about that)

Ole Miss -4 vs. Tennessee, noon

Ole Miss as a favorite is another one I’m not ashamed to admit I don’t get. Jevan Snead gets well against a three-game suckfecta of the pass defenses of UAB, Arkansas, and Northern Arizona (dropping one to Auburn somewhere in there, of course), and all of a sudden we’re supposed to believe he’s going to get it done against Monte’s Marauders? Here’s the thing, though: As murderous as Eric Berry and Janzen Jackson have been, the seven guys in front of them are as banged-up as any defense in DI-A, and after heroic efforts against Alabama, South Carolina, and Memphis in consecutive weeks, it’s legitimate to wonder whether they’ll have enough left in the tank to go on the road and stop Dexter McCluster. On the other side of the ball, Jonathan Crompton has looked bizarrely awesome over the last few weeks and is due for a bad day against the Rebels’ top-15 scoring defense. A few weeks ago, I openly mocked the idea that Ole Miss was going to cover six on what looked like a surging Arkansas team and got played; this week it’s the Vols that look like they’re on the move, but maybe, just maybe, Houston Nutt knows what he’s doing at this point.

RISK LEVEL 3: Taking Cialis if you take nitrates, often prescribed for chest pain, as this may cause a sudden, unsafe drop in blood pressure

Ohio State -16.5 vs. Iowa, 3:30 p.m.

Knee-jerk reaction to this game: “Both of these teams have elite defenses and offenses that can’t get out of their own way, which means this is going to be a defensive trench battle and the Buckeyes stand about as much chance of scoring 17 points period as I do of scoring with Mila Kunis.”

No, Mr. Gillett. And security is on its way.

Last Saturday’s action, however, tells a slightly different story. Ohio State actually had a pretty efficient day on offense, with Terrelle Pryor accounting for three TDs and — shazam! — no turnovers; Iowa’s offense, meanwhile, died the death of Nicolas Cage in “Leaving Las Vegas” the minute Ricky Stanzi got knocked out with an ankle injury; in nearly three quarters’ worth of action following that injury, they totaled 127 yards, two turnovers, and a missed field goal. And this was against a defense that got shelled by Syracuse. So yes, Virginia, Ohio State can win this game by three scores — they did it last week in State College, after all — and after they do, the only thing left to focus on will be driving Rich Rodriguez one step closer to retirement. (Or a padded room.)

RISK LEVEL 4: Attempting to leave the Church of Scientology

Clemson -7 vs. North Carolina State, noon

Earlier this week I did a post for Dr. Saturday about Clemson’s ascent to the top of the ACC’s Atlantic Division and how the burden of being a favorite has been the program’s kiss of death in recent years. If recent history is any guide, then, the Tigers’ upset alert should be at DEFCON 1 this weekend. But Tommy Bowden is no longer around to trip over his own shoelaces in big games — and the Tigers’ opponent this weekend is North Carolina State, who’s allowed an average of 44 points to its last four opponents, a group that includes such scoreboard-ignitin’ juggernauts as Duke, Boston College, and Maryland. (Or to look at it another way: Clemson gave up only 54 net yards to Boston College earlier this year; State generously allowed 480.) The only thing keeping Clemson from romping here is its lingering irritable-bowel syndrome that always seems to pop up in big games; if Dabo Swinney truly has worked some kind of magic on the Tigers’ psyche, C.J. Spiller figures to romp in Raleigh and power his team to a big win. And Clemson can save the embarrassing upset for next week, when Al Groh will be raging away at his VCR for having failed to tape “NCIS” and looking to take his frustrations out on somebody.

RISK LEVEL 5: Nailing a Russian mobster’s mistress

UNLV +17 at Air Force, 6 p.m.

Air Force is a triple-option team; UNLV has the nation’s 111th-ranked run defense. So this game is a slam-dunk, right? Not necessarily; the Falcons have a road game against ranked BYU to look ahead to next week, while the Runnin’ Rebs are a “desperate” team who knows they have to win their final two games to earn bowl eligibility and, potentially, save their coach’s job. Air Force has only beaten one of its last six opponents by 17 or more points and was held below 20 points in three of those, so while the chance is a slim one, UNLV could make a game of this if they’re firing on all cylinders. (They may only have four cylinders to begin with, but even a Ford Focus can hold its own in a drag race if properly modified.)

RISK LEVEL 1: Throwing into coverage against a Willie Martinez secondary
New Mexico +28 at Utah, 6 p.m.
After last week’s disastrous picks, which began with a supposedly easy bet for New Mexico State to sneak under a gargantuan line against the Buckeyes, I must be crazy to put money on any team from the Land of Enchantment again, particularly one that has yet to win a game this season. (Congratulations, Mike Locksley: Not only are you the only coach in DI-A to earn both a sex-discrimination complaint and a reprimand for slugging one of your own assistants, you’ve also accomplished what was previously thought impossible by elevating NMSU to the status of premier football program in your state. One hundred cocktails, baller.) But the law of averages says the Lobos are going to win a game eventually, no matter how unlikely that might sound, and it might even happen this weekend, with Utah potentially nursing a QB controversy following an ugly home win over Wyoming last week. The Utes have quietly crept back up the rankings since their early-season loss at Oregon, but none of their wins have been blowouts, even the ones over mediocre-to-submediocre MWC opposition; they’ve also got a date at TCU next week that I suspect will be occupying most of their mental energies for the next few days. Betting on a straight Lobo upset requires bigger cojones than I’ve got, but it doesn’t take an undue amount of bravery to picture UNM squeaking inside a four-TD line in spite of their recent awfulness.

RISK LEVEL 2: Parking your car on a street in Ndamukong Suh’s neighborhood
LSU +8 at Alabama, 3:30 p.m.
Even when Alabama has been good in recent years, LSU has been happy to stand in their way. Four years ago, during Mike Shula’s one good season in Tuscaloosa, Les Miles’s first LSU team knocked off the Tide in overtime; last year, a Tide squad headed for 12-0 needed overtime to get past an LSU team well on its way to an embarrassing late-season slump. A year later, LSU finally seems to be getting it together on offense, winning their last two games by a score of 73-10, while undefeated Bama has seen its passing game trending downward (Greg McElroy’s QB rating is just 83.3 over his last three games). Nick Saban’s solution to this is apparently to open it up and let McElroy throw deep again, but that may or not be the answer against an LSU secondary that’s allowed its last four opponents to average only 159 yards and a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. Alabama’s defense is strong enough to carry the day here, but I don’t know that they’re going to put eight points’ worth of distance between themselves and the Tigers, particularly in what should be a low-scoring trench battle.

RISK LEVEL 3: Attempting R.E.M.’s “It’s the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)” at a karaoke bar
Oklahoma -5 at Nebraska, 8 p.m.
Well, Nebraska fans, you got your wish: The Blackshirts appear to be back, as Bo Pelini has hauled the Cornhuskers back into the top 10 in nearly every statistical category on defense. Only one problem: In the immortal words of David Spade, “You couldn’t score in a monkey whorehouse with a bag of bananas.” The ‘Huskers are averaging only 12 points (and one offensive touchdown) per game over their last three, and have been held scoreless in 10 of their last 16 quarters. Meanwhile, the Sooners, left for dead after falling to 3-3 with a heartbreaking loss in the Red River Shootout, are keeping their heads above water with wins over Kansas and Kansas State — and maintaining a defense that’s every bit Nebraska’s equal, flummoxing perhaps the Big 12’s two best QBs (Colt McCoy and Todd Reesing) in consecutive weeks. The potential for OU’s offense to be rendered one-dimensional by Ndamukong Suh and the ‘Husker D makes this a little dicey, but it’s not like Nebraska figures to be much better; bet on Landry Jones to pull his team through with a solid, if aesthetically lacking, victory in Lincoln on Saturday.

RISK LEVEL 4: Not wearing proper eye protection around Brandon Spikes
Florida -34 vs. Vanderbilt, 7:15 p.m.
As recently as a few weeks ago, this would’ve looked like a sucker’s bet — Florida’s struggling offense couldn’t cover a spread to save their lives, while Vanderbilt, despite losing like clockwork, was keeping games close with a defense that managed to make opposing offenses look as sloppy as Vandy’s. Last week, though, the Gator offense got the same shot in the arm every team seems to be getting from Willie Martinez of late, while Vandy’s defense disappeared in the second half against Georgia Tech, their talent for keeping games close disappearing right along with it. Now, a five-TD victory by the Gators in the Swamp seems perfectly reasonable, and no, it doesn’t matter whether Brandon Spikes sits out for a half or not. Vandy’s offense has been so bad that Larry Smith’s season-ending hamstring tear actually looks like an opening for improvement (seriously, how much worse could Mackenzi Adams be?); otherwise, if Vandy even makes it into double digits on Saturday, one must conclude that Charlie Strong was half-assing it this week.

RISK LEVEL 5: Getting involved in a land war in Asia
South Carolina +6 at Arkansas, 12:20 p.m.
My first inclination was to put this game at the top of the column — Arkansas looked awful in a two-touchdown loss to Ole Miss a couple weeks ago and has a secondary ripe for pillaging by Stephen Garcia — but anyone who’s been reading this column over the past few weeks has almost certainly learned that my “Risk Level 1″ picks are to be second-guessed to within an inch of their worthless lives. This, too, is about the time of year when Steve Spurrier’s Gamecock teams have reliably gone straight into the tank (hell, with a four-point win over Vandy and a blowout loss to the Vols, the process may have already started), so I’m moving this game up to the highest risk level — while still holding out hope that Garcia might be empowered by the spirit of Tiny Floating Matthew McConaughey to keep the ‘Cocks within a touchdown of the Hogs in Fayetteville. (Had I put this game in the #1 spot, of course, the Gamecocks would end up losing by 30.)

RISK LEVEL 1: Going swimming less than 30 minutes after eating: New Mexico State +44 at Ohio State, noon

NOOOOOOOO YOU’VE GONE MAAAAAAAAAD

Stipulated, New Mexico State is a bad team — last in the nation in total offense, next to last in scoring offense, bottom quintile in turnover margin. About the best thing going for them right now is that they’re the one D-IA program in New Mexico whose coach has enough self-control to refrain from punching his assistants, which is surely a great boon in those in-state recruiting battles. But Ohio State hasn’t scored more than 40 points all season long — even against the moribund defenses of Toledo and Illinois — so I’m at a loss to figure out why Vegas thinks they’re suddenly going to scrape 50 against the Aggies, particularly with their top two running backs, Brandon Saine and Daniel Herron, questionable due to various injuries. Maybe Jim Tressel will use this as an opportunity to let embattled QB Terrelle Pryor open things up a little, but consider that this game comes a week before a road date with 12th-ranked Penn State — how much of his hand is he really gonna show this week? This is a guy to whom the zone read option remains almost as exotic as snorting powdered rhino horn off the ass of a Vietnamese hooker at Burning Man. (Not as awesome an experience as she promised me it would be, incidentally.)

RISK LEVEL 2: Running into Tim Tebow in Jacksonville this weekend and offering him a toke: Tulane +35 at LSU, 8 p.m.

This spread seems a little more reasonable than the tOSU-NMSU line on paper, but LSU’s offense has been struggling almost as much as the Buckeyes’ — 31 points remains their high-water mark for the season — and the Tigers have been even more prone to playing down to the level of their opponents, at least over the past couple seasons. Since 2007, they’re just 6-12 ATS against unranked opponents, and have beaten the line in only two of their last six when the unranked opponent has been from a non-BCS conference. And while Tulane most assuredly stinks this year, an equally inept Green Wave squad handily beat the spread in a sloppy game when the two teams last faced off two years ago. Sure, that LSU team was clearly looking ahead to the following week’s matchup with Florida, but guess what — next week the Tigers are headed to Tuscaloosa to make their last stand in the SEC West race. No reason not to expect another sloppily executed outing here, although Les Miles’s interactions with the ref are always worth a few minutes out of your viewing day.

RISK LEVEL 3: Going to Saudi Arabia and asking one of the local shop owners where you can score a stiff drink and some tail: Notre Dame -28 vs. Washington State, 7:30 p.m.

Last season, when I was stinking up Dr. Saturday’s joint with my awful picks instead of this one, Wazzu was always good to pick against in a pinch. Didn’t matter how big the line was, didn’t matter where they were playing, the Cougars always bent over and submitted themselves to a blowout more than sizable enough to put money in your pocket. They haven’t been quite as automatic this year, spread-wise — woo only losing to Cal by 32! — but they’re still near the bottom of D-IA in nearly every meaningful statistical category, particularly on pass defense, where they’re ripe for getting carved up by the suddenly competent Jimmy Clausen. Aside from their sieve-like pass defense, the only reason I can think of why ND wouldn’t cover four TDs here is the fact that this game is being played in the Alamodome, for some reason; thus the Cougs might adapt more easily to the FieldTurf surface than the Irish, who as we all know are used to playing on Serengeti-length grass. But that’s kind of pitting your Civic in a drag race against a Porsche 911 and assuming that the sweet new shift knob you just installed is going to be your ace in the hole.

RISK LEVEL 4: Stealing a rib off of Terence Cody’s plate: Indiana +17.5 at Iowa, noon

We’ve got seven undefeated teams left in D-IA, and right about now is usually the point in the season when teams start getting elbowed off the undefeated hayride in earnest. Ripe for such a nudge are the Hawkeyes, 8-0 and owners of single-digit escapes from such juggernauts as Michigan State, Arkansas State, and Northern Iowa. Not that the Hoosiers, who’ve won only once in their last five games, are necessarily destined to be the architects of Iowa’s undoing, but the Hawkeyes just lost leading rusher Adam Robinson for the season with an ankle injury, requiring more tinkering to an offense already languishing at next-to-last in the Big Ten. Don’t get me wrong: I bear no ill will whatsoever toward Iowa, and find their ascent to the top five of the BCS standings as amusing as anyone. But any deal that requires depending on them to score a bunch of points is a deal to be avoided.

RISK LEVEL 5: Letting your kids have a play date with the Heene family: North Carolina State straight up at Florida State, noon

FSU has been one of the most schizophrenic teams in the country for a while now; these days it’s rare enough for them to play two good halves in a row, much less two games, which is why last Thursday’s performance against UNC (dig a 24-6 third-quarter hole, then storm back against one of the nation’s best defenses to win 30-27) almost made a bizarre kind of sense when you think about it. My guess, though, is that it’s time for them to cough up a stinker, and N.C. State seems as good a candidate as any to be the recipient. The Seminoles and Wolfpack have split their last eight, including two N.C. State wins in Tallahassee; FSU’s lone home win of the season so far was their 19-9 groaner against Jacksonville State, so we can throw out the home-field advantage in this one. Let’s also throw out FSU’s once-upon-a-time reputation as a defensive powerhouse while we’re at it. N.C. State’s defense has been a disaster area itself over the past few weeks, but the possibility of a shootout should at least encourage you to put a few bucks on the Wolfpack plus the points (the ‘Noles have only beaten the spread once in their past eight meetings with NCSU); if you really want to prove your manhood, throw caution to the wind and take the ‘Pack outright.

RISK LEVEL 1: Brigham Young +2.5 vs. Texas Christian, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

First of all, a mea culpa: My last three picks at Risk Level 1 — i.e. the picks that are supposed to be as close to dead-solid locks as you’ll find — have all failed to cover (or, in Southern Miss’s case, failed to win period, getting run out of Legion Field by a UAB squad that had never in its history tasted victory over the Golden Eagles). So while my immediate instinct is to pick a TCU win in this weekend’s big Mountain West matchup, I have no choice but to suspect that my faith in the Horned Frogs might be, shall we say, misplaced. Reasons to pick the Cougars in this game? There are some: TCU’s biggest strengths (a top-five defense and a running game currently bounding along at 225 yards per contest) match right up with BYU’s (top-10 scoring offense and the MWC’s second-best run defense). And the Horned Frogs’ defensive status has been built on the backs of oppnents who all rank 70th or lower in D-IA in total offense. Yes, BYU does have to ’splain away that uuuugly loss to Florida State a month ago, but as reputation-besmirching marks go, “got nutpunched by FSU” vs. “Doug Gillett’s gut instinct says you’ll win easily” is a push at best. I’m going against my better judgment here, and recent history suggests you’d be well served by doing the same: Stormin’ Mormons plus the points.

RISK LEVEL 2: Arkansas +6 at Ole Miss, 12:20 p.m. Saturday

Last year’s Hogs-Rebels matchup was one of the most anticipated in the SEC, with Captain Giggety assumed to be out for blood against the program that scorned him — yet the Rebels had to survive a furious fourth-quarter comeback attempt by the Razorbacks just to win by two points. This year’s Arkansas team is demonstrably superior to last year’s on both sides of the ball, while Ole Miss has been markedly worse, particularly in the big games, averaging only 12 points a game in SEC play. There was a time earlier in the season when that wouldn’t have mattered, as the Razorback defense was so bad it couldn’t even keep Georgia from setting up temporary residence in the Arkansas end zone, perhaps for tax-shelter purposes. But the Hogs appear to have figured things out in a hurry on that side of the ball — they’ve lassoed three of the nation’s highest-octane offenses in consecutive weeks (Texas A&M, Auburn, and Florida) and pilfered nine fumbles in the process. That spells bad news for the struggling Ole Miss offense, and don’t be fooled for a minute by Jevan Snead’s surgical dismembering of the UAB pass defense, ranked dead last in Division I-A as of this writing. This has all the makings of a four-quarter slugfest, and don’t be surprised to see Arkansas’s promising run — purchased from Satan with Bobby Petrino’s mortal soul; I mean, come on, it was just sitting there — continue with an upset victory in Oxford.

RISK LEVEL 3: Kansas +8 vs. Oklahoma, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

Or, the Shattered Dreams Bowl brought to you by Washington Mutual, Saturn Cars, and the Chicago 2016 Olympic bid committee. One of these teams just saw its season stiff-armed to the brink of oblivion with the loss of star QB Sam Bradford in a heartbreaking Red River Shootout defeat; the other bears the dubious distinction of being the one major-conference team Colorado’s offense managed to score on (repeatedly). This will be another one of those classic cases of an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object — or perhaps the reverse: Oklahoma’s offense ground to a virtual standstill once Bradford got knocked out in the RRS, while Kansas’s defense really hasn’t stopped anyone in the last three weeks. But the Jayhawk defense is good at one thing, and that’s putting opposing QBs on the turf — they’re tied for ninth in the nation with an average of 3.2 sacks per game. You will recognize this as a bad omen if you saw the extent to which OU’s Landry Jones was running for his life in the backfield against Texas (and if only they could’ve factored the distance he covered into the Sooners’ final rushing statistics, they might’ve ended up with more than -16 net yards on the ground). Four years ago, the Sooners limped into Lawrence in a similarly dire situation and re-animated their season with a convincing (if sloppy) victory; even if they win this weekend, though, the Sooners just don’t have enough juice to put eight points’ worth of distance between themselves and the Jayhawks.

RISK LEVEL 4: Virginia +4 vs. Georgia Tech, noon Saturday

Al Groh, by Edvard Munch.

We’ve seen this story before, haven’t we? Virginia opens the season with a loss so ugly it gets a TV-MA from the ratings board (for violence, adult language, and egregious insults to the concept of offensive football), spends the first few weeks of the season stinking on ice, and then suddenly Al Groh wakes up from his Ensure nap and starts throwing poo at people. The only thing scarier than the Cavaliers being 2-0 and in sole possession of first place in the ACC’s Coastal Division is the fact that they’re going to ride their drag-the-opponent-down-to-our-level strategy until it stops working, and that may not be for a while, even with 6-1 Georgia Tech next on the docket. The Yellow Jackets haven’t beaten the Wahoos in Charlottesville since their national-title run in 1990 and are just 6-12 overall in that span, including two instances in which bowl-bound Tech teams got bitchmade by UVA squads headed for 5-7. Take the Cavs plus the points in this one — and really, there are dumber ways to spend your money than picking them for the straight upset, because suckerpunching a team that’s just had its ACC-title hopes revived is the kind of dick move that’s right in Grumpy Groh’s wheelhouse.

RISK LEVEL 5: Vanderbilt +12.5 at South Carolina, 7 p.m. Saturday

Stipulated: Vanderbilt is a shitty team this year, and not even “plucky, Bobby Johnson morally victoriously shitty” but rather the “I’m putting a tenner on the ‘Dores finishing with negative net yardage shitty” of the mid-’90s. If you can’t hold the Georgia running game, previously seen tripping over its own shadow against LSU and Tennessee, under 170 yards, you have problems that defy an easy fix. Such is Vandy’s lot in life, and yet they have a two-year winning streak over Steve Freakin’ Spurrier, which is the kind of thing that makes me wonder if God really isn’t punishing him for being such a prick when he was with the Gators. There’s very little that Vandy does well at this point, but they have put together a surprisingly stout pass defense, ranked third in the nation in yardage allowed and ninth in efficiency; that could be bad news for Stephen Garcia, who, after a promising start to the season, reverted back to Bad Old Pot-Smoking-Matthew-McConaughey-Influenced Stephen Garcia in last week’s loss to Alabama. Like Virginia, Vandy has made a habit of ensuring that their particular musky failstank — a pungent blend of penalties, errant passes, and randomly blown plays — rubs off on their unsuspecting opponents; if they do the same to the Gamecocks, we’ll have a game on our hands. A sloppy, unintentionally entertaining game, but a game nonetheless.

At least we think that’s the quote. All hail our gambling Maximus:

RISK LEVEL 1: Sitting too close to the TV: Navy -8 at Southern Methodist, 8 p.m.

It was an affront to naval aviation that would’ve made Goose spin in his grave: Last year, Navy pounded SMU 34-7 in Annapolis without completing a single pass. Check that: without attempting a single pass. If you can completely remove half of the typical offensive game from the equation and still win by four TDs, then either you’re really good at the half you kept, the other team really sucks, or in this case, both. Granted, SMU is a better squad this year, but it’s the kind of incremental improvement (i.e. the nation’s 74th-ranked run defense, up from 116th) that’s hardly guaranteed to make a major difference against the better teams on their schedule. I’m going to go way out on a limb here and predict that the Middies attempt at least a couple of passes this time around (file that under “Risk Level 0″ if you’re thinking about putting some money on it), but I also think they’ll keep SMU’s utterly one-dimensional offense in check and sail out of Dallas with a convincing win.

RISK LEVEL 2: Starting Tony Romo on your fantasy team on a weekend when the Cowboys are playing a game of any importance whatsoever: Louisiana-Lafayette -7.5 at Western Kentucky, 7 p.m.

After less than two months of “enjoying” (if that’s the word) full FBS status, the Hilltoppers are making every bit as strong a bid for “Absolute Worst Team in D-IA” status as you’d think they would. WKU is one of seven still-winless teams in the nation and one of only two that still hasn’t managed to play anyone within two TDs; sure, you could say “Well, that’s because they’ve been playing teams like Tennessee and South Florida,” but no, overly optimistic WKU booster, they managed to get blown off their own field by Central Arkansas. U-La-La did manage to blow a huge lead to North Texas last week and only just managed to grab it back, but the Hilltopper defense is ranked dead last in the nation in nearly every category, so you may rest assured that they will allow the Ragin’ Cajuns as many points as they need to put this one away. Sorry, Hilltoppers, but the oddsmakers don’t factor in any extra points for disturbing mascots.

Offers massages a little too often.

RISK LEVEL 3: Attending the “Twilight” movie by yourself (male): Northwestern +13.5 at Michigan State, noon

Apparently the oddsmakers do believe that Sparty has bounced back enough from its early three-game losing streak to be a two-TD favorite over a conference opponent. MSU has won the last two weeks in a row, but two in a row barely qualifies as a “streak,” particularly when those games are an OT win over Michigan (in which MSU snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, then said “oops” just in time to trade back) and a coast-y victory over an Illinois team that seems to be doing its level best to get [NAME REDACTED] fired with Florida-like prejudice. This is one of those sneaky lines in which Vegas is just begging for people to glance at the spread, think “Oh, State will probably win by two touchdowns” and take the favorite, but these two teams are too evenly matched for a final margin that big. Northwestern has won its last two games in East Lansing, one a shootout, the other a blowout; resist the handicappers’ bait and take the eggheads plus the points.

RISK LEVEL 4: Accepting a drink at a bar from Joe Francis (female): Arkansas +24.5 at Florida, 3:30 p.m.

Last year the Gators went to Fayetteville favored by 26 and had to score a late touchdown to sneak past the line. A year later, Tim Tebow may or may not be 100 percent and the Hogs may or may not be a good team, but they’re a damn sight better than they were in 2008 — and if their first half against Auburn is any indication, they may have acquired enough defense to go from “team that will play a ton of shootouts on the way to the Papajohns.com Bowl” to “Oh, shit, these guys are going to ruin somebody’s week.” Coming off a not-as-close-as-it-looked win at LSU, the Gators, like everyone else who was in Baton Rouge that weekend, are due for a hangover — maybe not of the defensive variety, but perhaps of the “Why aren’t we scoring more points” variety, particularly if the coaching staff is still playing it close to the vest to keep Tebow from getting blown up again. I know putting any money on Bobby Petrino is the kind of thing that makes you feel like you need to take a shower, but it’s the smart play here.

RISK LEVEL 5: Borrowing money from a guy named Vladimir with star tattoos: South Carolina +17 at Alabama, 7:45 p.m.

Tuesday, tovarech. No, we don’t have payment plan.

As impressively as Nick Saban has performed at Alabama, his teams always seem to go on at least a couple sleepwalks each season, whether it’s the ‘07 team losing to Mississippi State and ULM or last year’s far superior team still managing to wind up in nailbiters against Kentucky and Ole Miss. Unless you count the Tide’s slow start against FIU — whom they still managed to beat by 26 — there hasn’t really been such a sleepwalk this season. But oh look: Sandwiched between a dominating win over Ole Miss and a hate-fuck home date with Kiffykins lies South Carolina, currently 5-1, ranked, and showing signs of fielding the kind of offense Steve Spurrier wanted from the very beginning. Alabama’s pass defense caused Jevan Snead to lay a turd on the field so big his sphincter is still tender, so it’s probably only a matter of time before they goad Stephen Garcia into doing something similarly ridiculous, but until then I fully expect the Gamecocks to put up one of the stronger fights Bama will have faced this season.

RISK LEVEL 1: Sneaking into a second movie after the movie you bought a ticket for ends
Indiana +7 at Virginia, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Oddsmakers usually aren’t the type to fall in love quickly, but that seems to be what’s going on here: Virginia takes on a UNC team whose offense has barely gotten untracked all season, wins a hideous game, and now all of a sudden Al Groh is a touchdown favorite over somebody. I bet the guy who set the line for this game is the type who thinks the stripper is actually “into” him.

Indiana’s not a great team, but they did nearly knock off Michigan in the Big House, and whatever they had in the tank for that game is likely more than what Virginia had against the Tar Heels. If past trends are any indication, Groh will eventually rouse himself from his Ensure coma and win just enough games to keep from getting fired, but it’s still a little early for that yet. Take the Hoosiers and wait to bet on Virginia until they play someone they really have no business beating; that’s how this works.

RISK LEVEL 2: Buying a piece of stereo equipment that “fell off the back of a truck” from a guy in Manhattan
Alabama -6 at Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Remember when “Hey, maybe Spurrier wasn’t all that far off by voting Jevan Snead first-team All-SEC” was the trendy contrarian position? Ah, a different time, July. A couple months later, Snead has the third-worst QB rating in the conference (your fruit baskets are on the way, Jonathan Crompton and Mike Hartline!) and the Rebels are probably only a bad loss or two away from hanging a leftie onto the Independence Bowl Turnpike. I don’t see Snead having his big redemption performance against the nation’s 10th-best pass defense, nor do I see Saban losing a game like this when he knows the SEC West title is ripe for the taking. The Tide are probably due for a brain-fart performance on offense any week now, but it’ll happen in a game less critical to Bama’s title hopes than this one.

RISK LEVEL 3: Meeting Erin Andrews at a bar and asking her where she’s staying
Northwestern -20.5 vs. Miami-Ohio, noon Saturday
Miami-Ohio has gone from being the proud alma mater of Ben Roethlisberger to a team that didn’t even score until fourteen and a half quarters into the 2009 season; they’re still dead last in the nation in scoring offense with 11.6 points per game, so if the Wildcats can even make it to 32 points (which they’ve done in two out of three non-conference games so far this season) they should be good to go. NU will be putting up the Big Ten’s second leading player in total offense against the nation’s 93rd-ranked defense, and if they find themselves still short of a three-TD lead late in the game they can always count on Miami’s worst-in-the-nation turnover margin to hand them a shot at one more score. You know, Roethlisberger’s going to be in Detroit this weekend, just a straight shot down I-94 from Evanston; maybe he can swoop in and save the RedHawks, but barring that, there’s little reason to think they don’t get rolled here.

RISK LEVEL 4: Signing any kind of treaty with North Korea
Louisiana Tech +10.5 at Nevada, 9 p.m. Saturday
Two struggling offenses broke out in a big way last week, clobbering their opponents by an aggregate score of 90-34 and totaling 911 rushing yards between them. Louisiana Tech played their game on Wednesday night, though, so they’ve had three extra days to rest up and prepare for the Wolf Pack; they’re also sporting the nation’s 13th-best turnover margin, whereas Nevada managed to lose four fumbles even in their dismantling of UNLV to maintain a per-game turnover average even worse than Miami-Ohio’s. If the Wolf Pack continue to serve up the ball at regular intervals this weekend, LaTech can just aim Daniel Porter at the Nevada defense, grind away, and stay in the game just long enough to take the nation’s third-worst pass defense by surprise with some deep throws. That’s about the time that Derek Dooley’s INTENSE FACE has been known to make an appearance, and brother, that’s the last thing you want staring you down from the opposing sideline.

RISK LEVEL 5: Saying “surprise me” to the tattoo artist
Memphis straight up vs. UTEP, 8 p.m. Saturday
Let’s don’t beat around the bush here — both these teams stink, and this game was shaping up to be just another segment on C-USA Bumfights 2: Desperate Coaches Throw Down right up until UTEP unloaded on the ranked Houston Cougars last week. But the Miners came into that game ranked last in the nation in passing efficiency and total offense, dramatically increasing my suspicion that Houston was simply out of gas after knocking off a pair of Big XII teams back-to-back. The highly contagious strain of hemorrhagic FAILfever that has been passed from Georgia to Oklahoma State to Houston is now coursing through UTEP’s bloodstream, and the otherwise terrible Tigers are poised to take advantage. Oh, the final score of this game might end up 10-7, but it’ll happen — and then Memphis can be just happy enough with themselves to get blown into Post shredded wheat biscuits for the remainder of the season. Circle of life, folks, circle of life.

RISK LEVEL 1: Trying to cram a slightly-too-large carryon into the overhead bin
Southern Miss -10 at UAB, 8 p.m. Thursday

Colorado-West Virginia may be the headliner this Thursday night, but the undercard at Legion field provides the better opportunity for moneymaking. Once upon a time, Southern Miss played the Lucy to UAB’s Charlie Brown, letting them hang in the game just long enough to gather a little hope before yanking the ball away and sending them to defeat (seven straight losses from 2000 to ‘06, by a total of 37 points). Since Neil Callaway became UAB’s head coach, though, Lucy has stopped yanking the ball away at the last moment and decided to simply blast Charlie Brown in the chest with a Mossberg before he can even start running. Southern Miss has won the last two games by a total score of 107-21, and with UAB’s defense languishing at 116th in the country, there’s no reason to think USM’s offense won’t be dumping a ton more points on them. Don’t feel bad, though, Blazers — you’ll always have Rice.

RISK LEVEL 2: Saying “I can make it one more exit” after your low-fuel light goes on
Clemson -13.5 at Maryland, noon Saturday

Unlike last year, when nearly every team in the conference seemed to be within just a game or two of 6-6, this year’s ACC already has some very identifiable doormats, and Maryland is most certainly one of them — their sole win is an overtime shootout against I-AA James Madison. At first blush, Clemson doesn’t look a whole lot better at 2-2, but those two losses were last-second defeats at the hands of ranked teams, and the Tigers are coming off a string of solid defensive performances in which they’ve allowed opponents to convert only 9 of their past 39 third-down attempts. Maryland is good at . . . well, nothing, really, except for handing the ball back to their opponents (their -10 turnover margin ranks as the nation’s fourth-worst). Between the TO margin and the Terps’ bottom-quintile ranking in nearly every defensive category, Clemson’s stable of superb offensive talent looks poised to finally put together a breakout performance.

(The one downside of a big Clemson win on Saturday: It’s one of the day’s first kickoffs, so you’ll be subjected to Tim Brando chortling at his own “a little Dabo’ll do ya” jokes for nearly the entirety of CBS’s afternoon coverage.)

RISK LEVEL 3: Staying on 14 with a dealer ace
Oregon -32.5 vs. Washington State, 9:15 p.m. Saturday

So Oregon is actually a pretty good team after all. Who knew? Put your hand down, asshole, I don’t believe for one second that you knew the Ducks were going to pound Cal by 39 points. Well, now that we have that out of the way, we can get back to more relevant matters, like playing the “How many points will Washington State lose by THIS week” game. Wazzu’s three losses this season have come by an average of 22 points — which is actually an improvement over last year, in which their average loss was by 40 — and there’s no reason to think that the Cougars will fare any better than Cal did last week. The spread is yoooge, no doubt, and a Duck hangover in the wake of their big win over the Golden Bears could keep this thing from being a non-stop 60-minute taintpunching, but OU’s excellent record against the line at Autzen Stadium (16-7 as a home favorite over the last four-plus seasons) should inspire confidence.

RISK LEVEL 4: Going on a blind date with a chick you met on MySpace
Auburn straight up at Tennessee, 7:45 p.m. Saturday

The final SEC game to kick off this Saturday might also be the most interesting: Finally we’ll get to see whether the miraculous, I’m-not-entirely-sure-the-devil-wasn’t-involved offensive turnaround effected by Gus Malzahn at Auburn will stand up against a truly fierce SEC defense. There are a couple asterisks, though: First, the Vols gave up 340 yards and 23 points to a lousy Ohio offense at home last week, and second, they lost one of their most important field marshals, linebacker Nick Reveiz, to a season-ending knee injury. None of this is to say that Auburn is going to continue their third-in-the-nation scoring pace, not by a long shot. But even a portion of Auburn’s 45.25 points per game could be too much for the struggling Vol offense to overcome. (Fun fact: Jonathan Crompton and Auburn’s defense both have eight interceptions on the season; that’s tied for most in the nation for Crompton, fourth for the Tigers.) The really risky bet here is putting money on Chris Todd having another five-TD passing performance, which would be tantamount to grilling $100 bills on your backyard barbecue.

RISK LEVEL 5: Submitting your resume to Al Davis for a coaching position with the Raiders
Texas A&M straight up vs. Arkansas, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

There are lots of small reasons to pick the Aggies in this one — the nation’s sixth-ranked passing attack going up against the 107th-best pass defense — and one big one not to: It would involve having faith in a Mike Sherman-coached A&M team to win a big game against Bobby Petrino. But you should go ahead and have that faith anyway, because Jerry Jones being forced to watch his alma mater lose in his billion-dollar stadium is the kind of thing that would make a just, benevolent god very happy. What, you were expecting detailed statistical analysis? (Side bet: Will Jer bust out the Cowboys “cage dancers” for this most special of intersectional games? I’m putting a crisp Abraham Lincoln on yes.)

Orson: Miami IS Ray Liotta IN Anything. Let’s face it: Ray Liotta was never meant to make a film without at least one scene of him burying his fist in the face of a sniveling punk of some sort. There was that unfortunate time when he attempted to branch out, sure. (Refer to this in the Liotta canon as the “Corrina, Corrina” phase, though he did stage a spirited fistfight with Whoppi Goldberg for a fight scene that met the cuttring room floor.) Similarly, Miami was never meant to experiment with being an emotional, 8-5 ACC team–

THUNDERCLAPS.

EXCUSE ME.

HELLO ORSON I HAVE A CHALLENGE FOR YOU THAT YOU WILL BY DESIGN FAIL.

Orson: Please, everyone. Welcome Crazy Old Testament God to the–

COTG: YOUR PLEASANTRIES ARE USELESS NOW. THE SCHEDULE HAS CHANGED AND I MUST WORK THIS SATURDAY.

Orson: I thought you were usually off Saturdays, no?

COTG: NEW TESTAMENT GOD HAS AN APPOINTMENT WITH AN ESTATE PLANNER THAT DAY. EVEN GOD NEEDS A WILL AND IF YOU DON’T BELIEVE ME ASK ZEUS. I GOT THE TITANS AND A SWAN THAT RAPES THINGS IN THE DEAL. IF YOU HEAR FLAPPING WATCH YOUR ASS, BY THE WAY. HAVEN’T SEEN HIM IN A WHILE.

Orson: Right. So, a test you say?

COTG: YOU MUST GO TO YOUR ONLINE GAMBLING ACCOUNT WHICH THUS FAR HAS BEEN PROFITABLE THUS FAR THIS SEASON AND MAKE BETS AS A TESTAMENT OF YOUR FAITH IN ME. REFUSE AND BE SMITTEN.

Orson: Smoted? Smited? Smoten? What is the–

COTG: HOW ABOUT THIS? “OMG LOL URGE TO SMITE RISING.” GOOD ENOUGH FOR YOU BLOGGER-CHEEKS?

Orson: What does it look like when you smite someone?

COTG: ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE NATION OF AFGHANISTAN?

Orson: As a general condition, sure.

COTG: THAT IS A PLEASANT SUBURB OF SMITESYLVANIA.

Orson: Ah. So, what do you command Karl Marx with a crown–er, Crazy Old Testament God?

COTG: FIRST YOU MUST PLACE MONEY ON MISSISSIPPI STATE TO UPSET LSU.

Orson: Um, sure. Why, exactly?

COTG: BECAUSE THEY PASSED A TEST OF FAITH I ASKED OF THEM YEARS AGO BY ASKING THEM TO HIRE JACKIE SHERRILL.

Orson: That worked out horrendously for them, though.

COTG: HAHAHAHAHAHA YES SO WILL THIS AND MANY OTHER THINGS I ASK OF YOU. OBEY OR BE SMOTEN.

Orson: [sotto voce] Smited.

COTG: I HEARD THAT. NEXT, TAKE MARYLAND TO BEAT RUTGERS OUTRIGHT.

Orson: Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee State last week for the second year running, sir.

COTG: BUT I SHALL REWARD THEM BY DOING WHAT I ALWAYS DO FOR THEM: BY GRANTING THEM A BIZARRE WIN AFTER A BIZARRE LOSS. YOU KNOW THIS IS TRUTH AND YE SHALL NOT DENY IT.

Orson: Well, that’s…that’s actually totally true, yes.

COTG: NOW PLACE SUBSTANTIAL MONEY ON VIRGINIA TECH TO BEAT MIAMI IN BLACKSBURG.

Orson: You’re just asking me to lose money now.

COTG: YOU KNOW WHO MY FAVORITE CARTOON CHARACTER IS?

Orson: Smite-y Mouse?

COTG: NO, UM…YES. WHERE DID YOU LEARN MY MATERIAL?

Orson: 2002-2004. The [NAME REDACTED] years, of course.

COTG: YES, JEREMY FOLEY. SO OBEDIENT TO HIS GOD. HE PASSED THAT TEST WELL. I HAVE ONE MORE FOR YOU, MORTAL SQUIDBAIT.

Orson: Please.

COTG: YOU SHALL TAKE OREGON OVER CAL.

Orson: I can’t. I know this whole thing is supposed to go badly for me, and the you get to laugh at my mortal woe, or maybe turn me into a pillar of salt or something, but I can’t bet against Cal here. This is their year.

COTG: I WILL REFRAIN FROM REDUCING YOU TO DUST FOR AN INSTANT AND ASK YOU A QUESTION: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME A CAL TEAM UNDER JEFF TEDFORD CAME THROUGH WHEN THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO?

Orson: You have a point.

COTG: I AM EVERYWHERE AT ONCE. ASK HOUSTON NUTT ABOUT THAT. IF YOU WILL EXCUSE ME I HAVE TO RETURN JEVAN SNEAD’S TALENT TO HIM. I HAVE HAD IT FOR OVER 24 HOURS NOW.

Orson: Ha! Too bad for him.

COTG: THAT’S MY LINE.

Orson: [/SMOTTENATED]

RISK LEVEL 1: Aiming for the little “shortcut” patch of fairway on the third hole of Wii Golf
Florida -21.5 at Kentucky, 5 p.m. Saturday

Danger comes in a thousand forms.

Urban Meyer claimed to be perfectly satisfied with his team’s much-closer-than-expected 10-point win over Kiffykins last week, but don’t let his outward nonchalance (or his swine flu excuses) fool you: Deep down the Model T-1000’s circuits have been set to “SEETHE” for the better part of a week now, and all that means is that some poor innocent motorist (i.e. Kentucky) is about to be thrown from his vehicle and then run over with it. Since upsetting Ohio State for the national title three years ago, Urban Meyer is a ridiculous 22-7 against the chalk and has lost back-to-back games against the spread only once; not good news for a Kentucky team that need a 100-yard kickoff return to squeeze past Louisville last week. Tim Tebow may have looked merely mortal against Monte Kiffin’s defense, but Kentucky, which returns only three starters in the front seven, will be hard-pressed to match that feat; Mike Hartline, meanwhile, has been playing way over his head so far this season and is due to get brought back down to earth. If you’re looking for an obscure and slightly riskier side bet, put a Hamilton or two on Hartline’s 3/1 TD/INT ratio getting evened up in this game as the ‘Cats fall behind, go pass-heavy, and start throwing up easy ducks for the Gator secondary.

RISK LEVEL 2: Punting the ball down the middle of the field at Cowboys Stadium
UNLV -4 at Wyoming, 3 p.m. Saturday

Two recent Mountain West doormats square off in scenic Laramie this weekend, with only one of them having made any tangible progress toward respectability. UNLV made it to 5-7 last year and has actually started putting regular scares into BCS-conference teams, occasionally even beating them; Wyoming, meanwhile, is still searching for an offense under first-year head coach Dave Christensen, with their highest achievement to date probably being hanging with Texas by three points at halftime a couple weeks ago (before getting blown off the field in a hail of Colt McCoy TDs in the second half). The Cowboys got dominated last week by Colorado, of all teams; if they’re capable of making Cody Hawkins look competent, I don’t expect them to offer much resistance to UNLV’s Omar Clayton, probably the most dangerous QB the Runnin’ Rebs have had since Randall Cunningham.

RISK LEVEL 3: Being the U.S. Census taker assigned to Glenn Beck’s neighborhood
Arizona State +11.5 at Georgia, 7 p.m. Saturday

On paper, Georgia seems like the better investment here: They went into Tempe last year and whipped the Sun Devils up and down the field, and with the offense appearing to have recovered nicely from the loss of last year’s two most identifiable stars, they should be able to continue that dominance over a team that’s having to fly 2,000 miles into the gaping maw of the most soul-crushing humidity they’ve probably ever experienced. But it’s hard to roll up too big a lead — or, frequently, any lead at all — when you’re gift-wrapping the ball and placing it right back into the hands of the other team, which is precisely what Georgia has done all season long. The Dawgs are tied for 116th in the nation with a -7 turnover margin after only three games, while Arizona State is sitting atop D-IA at +8 (without a single giveaway all season, albeit against a pair of scrub opponents). If Georgia continues to hand out freebies and combine that with a third straight week of nonexistent pass defense, it’s gonna be another long Saturday night needing another daring escape from the Ginger Ninja. PURPLE CHAMELEON SKIN ACTIVATE!!!!

RISK LEVEL 4: Joining the cast of a sitcom headlined by one of the former stars of “Seinfeld”

Auburn -31.5 vs. Ball State, 7 p.m. Saturday

“I do not worship the devil,” Dave Attell once said, “but I do agree with a lot of the things he tells me.” I think someone in Auburn has been having some regular communication with the devil recently, and his initials are Gus Malzahn, for in one fell swoop the Auburn offense that was so hideous last year has been transformed into a well-oiled machine averaging 515 yards a game (good for eighth in the nation). The cynical side of me thinks that can’t last forever, and between that and the look-ahead opportunity with Tennessee coming up next week, covering four touchdowns’ worth of juice against Ball State is a riskier proposition than it might otherwise be. But this is an absolutely horrendous BSU team, sitting at 0-3 with losses to North Texas, New Hampshire, and Army; whatever competence Brady Hoke lent to this team evidently disappeared the moment Hoke packed up for San Diego State. I suppose there’s a chance Chizik could let his foot off the gas early to prepare for the Vols, but that presumes that the Cardinals — 112th in the nation in total offense despite their schedule — would be able to score even against the Tigers’ bench. Your mileage may vary, but I’m still going with Auburn’s second string on that one.

RISK LEVEL 5: Making fun of Mike Tyson’s face tattoo.

Southern Miss +13 at Kansas, noon Saturday

NICE.

Yes, the Golden Eagles allowed 34 points to the plug-ugly Virginia offense in a come-from-behind win in Hattiesburg last Saturday, but at least USM has been prepping for their opponent this weekend; KU’s team appears to have spent most of their week prepping for their own basketball squad, which doesn’t seem like a terribly well-focused practice regimen to me. Kansas has snacked on some relatively easy opposition so far, but their rebuilt offensive line figures to see their most formidable opposition yet from the Southern Miss defense, which took a couple quarters to wake up against the ‘Hoos but clamped down in a hurry to hold their third straight opponent under 75 total yards rushing. If USM can similarly “one-dimensionalize” the Jayhawks, they’ll make a game of this one — and that’ll be just one more thing the basketball team can clown the footballers about.

RISK LEVEL 1: Picking one of the “Manager’s Favorites” on a whim at Blockbuster
Florida -28.5 vs. Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Honestly, what can I say about this game that Pieter Bruegel the Elder didn’t depict much more vividly in The Triumph of Death? This was going to be a blowout even before Lane Kiffin’s ego started writing checks that neither his body nor his playbook could cash; now that his trash talk has caused the Cyberdyne Systems Model T-1000 known to us humanoids as “Urban Meyer” to become sentient and program itself to terminate him with extreme prejudice, CBS may, for the first time, be forced to rate an NCAA football broadcast “TV-MA” for extreme graphic violence. The only way Tennessee squeaks under the four-TD line is if Monte Kiffin can (sorta) bail his kid out by dialing up enough defense to keep the Gators’ slightly re-jiggered offense from running completely wild. But given that the UT offense might be lucky to score at all behind turnover machine Jonathan Crompton, that becomes a taller order still. Florida whacked the Vols by 24 last year, on the road, with the Gator offense demonstrably not even trying that hard; this year’s game will make that one look like a minor disagreement between friends.

RISK LEVEL 2: Letting Billy Joel borrow your classic ‘65 Corvette for a weekend
Utah -4.5 at Oregon, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Now that the Ducks have bounced back from their opening-day humiliation at Boise State to beat a BCS-conference opponent, the temptation is to assume that all is right with the world, or at least the part of it immediately surrounding Eugene. But that wouldn’t be a good idea if you’re a Duck fan: Oregon needed two defensive scores (an 18-yard pick-six and a 28-yard fumble return) just to outlast Purdue by two points last week and allowed the Boilermakers more than 450 yards of total offense. Utah, meanwhile, features an even better defense than Boise State, and outside of a fluky 96-yard sprint by Utah State’s Robert Turbin in their opener, has solidly corralled every runner they’ve faced so far — bad news when the Ducks’ leading rusher, QB Jeremiah Masoli, is being hung out to dry behind an offensive line returning only one starter. Expect to see the Ducks come crashing back to earth once again as Utah controls the line of scrimmage for 60 minutes and the Mountain West dishes out a black eye to yet another name-brand BCS-conference team.

RISK LEVEL 3: Flying standby on Thanksgiving weekend
Michigan State +10.5 at Notre Dame, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Yes, we all know how Michigan State has beaten Notre Dame their last six trips to South Bend, and nine of their last twelve overall; if even John L. “Slappy” Smith can consistently win under those circumstances, it officially falls under the heading of Not That Hard. And that alone might be enough to convince you to put your money on Sparty here, but consider, too, that even ND’s few victories haven’t been huge — their last three have been by a total of 14 points — and that State brings back eight starters from a defense that sacked Jimmy Clausen three times last year and held the Irish to only 16 rushing yards. Don’t let MSU’s embarrassing loss to Central Michigan fool you into thinking Notre Dame is going to roll here — they’re probably the better team in the end, but not double-digits better; they’ll be happy simply to not have any flags planted in their turf when the smoke clears.

RISK LEVEL 4: Cutting Ed Orgeron off in traffic
Middle Tennessee State +6.5 at Maryland, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Nine returning starters, a 39-point loss to Cal, an overtime escape from D-IAA James Madison: These are the hallmarks of what you might describe as “a team that is not good.” Yet even last year’s Maryland team managed to lose to supposedly lowly MTSU by 10 points. This year, the Terrapins have given up 959 yards in their first two games and now face a Blue Raider offense that returns 10 starters; the eleventh guy, delightfully alliterative quarterback Dwight Dasher, came off the bench to start six games in ‘07 and finished with 1,143 yards and a 9/3 TD/INT ratio. Maryland, meanwhile, will be struggling to control the line of scrimmage all day no matter what side of the ball they’re on (only two returning starters on the offensive line and another two in their defensive frotnt seven). If you really want to show your manhood, taking the Raiders straight up in this one would not be the dumbest thing you could do all weekend. (That honor goes to starting Jonathan Crompton as your QB in The Swamp.)

RISK LEVEL 5: Calling Bill Belichick a pussy in a bar in Boston’s South Side
UAB +7 at Troy, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Full disclosure: I spent seven years in the employ of the University of Alabama at Birmingham. However, they laid me off earlier this summer, so it’s not like I’m making this pick in some craven effort to ingratiate myself with them. No, the only person I’m trying to ingratiate myself with is their quarterback, Joe “Black Tebow” Webb, who in two games this season has racked up 447 yards on 30-of-50 passing and another 291 yards (and 3 TDs) rushing. The unfortunate thing for UAB, of course, is that Webb can’t play defense, but if the first two weeks of the season are any indication, neither can Troy — it was no surprise to see them get rolled by Florida last week, but the week before that they went to Bowling Green and lost by 17 to more or less the same offense that tanked Tennessee last year. I’ll be honest, before the season started, I would’ve picked Troy in this one, but with them struggling and UAB returning all 11 of last year’s starters against a secondary returning only one, I like the Blazers’ chances to keep it close in a shootou

Bad beard mojo, begone! Let the healing (and better picks) begin!

RISK LEVEL 1: Drinking a Starbucks venti French Roast and eating two Burrito Supremes from Taco Bell before going on a long car trip: South Carolina +7 at Georgia, 7 p.m. Saturday

Considering how extraordinarily lucky either of these teams were to have even scored seven points on opening weekend, the touchdown spread in this matchup already looks a little shady. And this series has been a defensive slugfest in even the most favorable of circumstances: Only twice in the Mark Richt era has the margin of victory in this game been more than one score, and the average outcome has been a Georgia victory by a mere 6.5 points. Even the starry-eyed Georgia homer in me cannot say with any degree of certainty that this game will not devolve into a “Yakety Sax”-worthy simulacrum of last year’s Auburn-Mississippi State shenanigans, so do yourself a favor and take the underdog and the points. Given the kind of trouble Stephen Garcia is sure to attract in downtown Athens, you’re gonna want to have a little extra cash to contribute to his legal defense fund, because you’re a giver like that.

RISK LEVEL 2: Leaving the airport only an hour before your flight is scheduled to leave: Southern California -7 at Ohio State, 8 p.m. Saturday

You don’t have to be a blinkered, Yankee-hating SEC chauvinist to know that Ohio State craps the bed like clockwork in big intersectional games. Southern Cal, on the other hand, has played a slew of ranked out-of-conference opponents and still managed to lose to only one OOC team since 2002. That was the ‘05 Texas Longhorns, with whom some of you might be familiar; in their other 12 games against ranked non-conference foes, they’ve won by an average of three touchdowns. Behind a true-freshman QB getting his first road-trip experience in front of 102,329 profanity-spewing, styrofoam-cooler-shitting Buckeye partisans, I don’t know that I can quite pick USC to win by that much this time around, but they’ll win by enough. The law of averages — or maybe just the law of an infinite number of monkeys with an infinite number of typewriters — says that Ohio State will eventually restore its good name in a high-profile out-of-conference matchup, but it ain’t gonna happen this weekend.

RISK LEVEL 3: Going to a bar with Redskins TE Chris Cooley and matching him shot for shot Houston +16 at Oklahoma State, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

Look, I’m as impressed as anyone with the degree to which Okie State handled the Dawgs on Saturday; particularly with the Sooners sustaining a haymaker to their title chances, it might be time to start considering the Cowboys as the real deal (or at least a real deal) in the Big 12. But real deal or no, a letdown opportunity is a letdown opportunity, and this is a big one: Not only does Houston bring back eight starters from an offense that was even more prolific than the Cowboys’ last season, their coach is Kevin Sumlin, who spent two years as OSU’s co-offensive coordinator before taking the top job with the Cougars. Not that that means Houston will be putting any major crimps in the Cowboys’ offensive onslaught, but if this game devolves into a shootout in which Zac Robinson and Case Keenum are matching each other touchdown bomb for touchdown bomb, it’s that much less likely that anybody will be putting 16 points’ worth of distance between anybody else. Drop a fifty on the Cougars plus the juice, then sit back and let the basketball-on-grass begin.

RISK LEVEL 4: Paying for a hooker with a personal check Tulane +17 vs. Brigham Young, 10:15 p.m. Saturday

Jesus Christ, you beat one alleged national-title contender with a rebuilt offensive line and a QB who spends half the game in a shoulder sling and all of a sudden people are penciling you in for the BCS national-title game. Let’s not forget how many extraordinarily lucky breaks BYU had to get just to beat Oklahoma by one point, nor the fact that Tulane, situated between a monster upset of a top-five team and a home date with Florida State, sets up to be as dicey a trap game as anything the Cougars will face all season. (Or is it a sandwich game? Maybe a trap sandwich. Y’all play with that one for a little bit and get back to me.) Tulane may suck, but they’ve handily beaten the spread against the last five ranked teams they’ve faced, whereas BYU went 3-9 against the line last year. Look at it this way: Win this one and you’ll have a nice fat wad of cash to go blow on booze and debauchery in the French Quarter after the game, and it’s not like you’re gonna have to be climbing over Brigham Young fans to get to the bar, either.

RISK LEVEL 5: Mailing an envelope full of white powder to the White House “as a joke”: Iowa State straight up vs. Iowa, noon Saturday

OK, so maybe this one isn’t that risky: Despite being the state’s demonstrably superior program in the grand scheme of things since Kirk Ferentz arrived, Iowa is only 4-6 against ISU under Ferentz, and even their victories (12 points on average) have been lackluster considering that only one of them has come against a Cyclone team with a winning record. Sure, there’s ample evidence that current Auburn head man Gene Chizik left the ISU program in tatters, but they weren’t the ones who spent last Saturday dicking around with an FCS squad to the point where they had to block two game-winning field-goal attempts in the final seven seconds to escape with a win. Sure, it’s a risk, but what else are you gonna do for excitement if you live in Iowa?

LOCK OF THE WEEK: IHOP’s football-themed stuffed French toast -32.5 vs. Hunger

IHOP isn’t necessarily known for its consistency in crunch time, so I don’t blame anyone for being dubious about their ability to cover that kind of line, even at home. But you’re just going to have to trust me on this one: The football-themed stuffed French toast, which joined IHOP’s lineup just in the past couple weeks, is a blue-chip performer destined to dominate from the moment it steps onto the field. I had a chance to experience it in action at an IHOP in Knoxville on Monday night, and was amazed enough to conclude that starting the stuffed French toast in place of pancakes might just be one of those risky personnel changes that actually makes this a stronger team. Do not hesitate to plunk your $6.99 down on the favorite in this one, folks. You won’t regret it.

RISK LEVEL 1: Eating a Filet-O-Fish right before bedtime

Troy -7 at Bowling Green, 7pm Thursday

The only thing more surprising than Bowling Green firing Gregg Brandon (44-30 at BGSU, 2-1 in bowls) last season was whom they replaced him with: Dave Clawson, last seen yanking out the last Jenga block that toppled the Phil Fulmer regime at Tennessee with his overly complicated (for Jonathan Crompton, at least) “Clawfense.”

“You need to miss three reads, then fumble.” “Right, fumble, then miss my reads.”

Installing that system at BGSU should cause somewhat fewer problems, given that it’s at least somewhat similar to what Brandon and Urban Meyer before him were running, but this is still not an offense I’d be stacking my fondest hopes and dreams behind. Nor is their defense, which returns only three starters, one I’d be counting on to stop a Troy attack that brings nearly all of its top skill players back from 2008’s Sun Belt title campaign. The Trojans have made a habit of putting up healthy margins of victory against non-BCS opponents the last couple years, even when they’ve gone on the road, and I expect them to do the same to open the ‘09 season.

RISK LEVEL 2: Telling your girlfriend “Yes, you do look fat in those pants”

Navy +22 at Ohio State, noon Saturday

OK, I take back all the jokes I’ve made about Buckeye fans pooping in styrofoam coolers and needing to be tear-gassed to be kept in line: The Bucks are making a truly classy move by honoring the Naval Academy with a standing O before this weekend’s game to thank them for their sacrifices on behalf of our country. That’ll be the first gracious thing tOSU does at the Horseshoe on Saturday; the second will be screwing around and letting Navy stay in the game for two or three quarters.

The Bucks are only 1-3 against the spread in non-conference home games over the last couple years, 5-6 over the last five, and will have two more factors counting against a blowout margin on Saturday: First, they’ll be facing Navy’s difficult-to-defend (and rarely encountered) triple-option attack, and second, they’ll almost certainly be looking ahead to next week and the opportunity to score some revenge against Southern Cal in the ‘Shoe. Of course, Terrelle Pryor could always bust out and make a fool of me here, but counting on a Jim Tressel offense to put up eye-popping numbers still sounds like a bad idea to me.

RISK LEVEL 3: Buying an American car in its first year of production

San Jose State +33.5 at Southern California, 3:30 p.m. Saturday

As big a risk as you’d be taking by betting on any WAC opponent at L.A. Coliseum, Pete Carroll is taking a bigger one by starting a true freshman in the season opener for the first time in USC history — and not just a true freshman but one who threw picks in summer practice like they were going out of style. Yes, interception-happy young’un Matt Barkley will have the luxury of going up against a typically mediocre WAC defense, but like the Buckeyes, the Trojans will have the added danger of looking ahead to next week’s battle royale in Columbus. This game looks a lot like the Trojans’ 2007 opener against Idaho, which directly preceded a much-hyped trip to Lincoln to face the Cornhuskers; even behind QB John David Booty and 15 other proven starters, the Trojans loafed to a secure but hardly memorable 38-10 victory. I grant you that betting against Pete Carroll under any circumstance is taking your life into your own hands, but every once in a very long while the circumstances seem to tilt against a ginormous USC blowout, and this looks like one of those times.

RISK LEVEL 4: Going quail hunting with Dick Cheney

Western Kentucky +30 at Tennessee, 12:21pm Saturday

Somebody in Vegas must have a lot of confidence in what Lane Kiffin brings to the table, because I was unaware that the Tennessee offense in its present state could score 30 points period, much less beat someone by that many. In fact, they only did that twice last year: Once against a UAB defense that finished 107th in the country, and once against Mississippi State, which required the assistance of a pair of fourth-quarter pick-sixes. Make no mistake, Western Kentucky is going to stink on ice this year, and I’m sure Lane Kiffin will be making every effort to run up the score as much as possible, but 30 points? Sorry, that’s just way too much cheese given that Jonathan Crompton doesn’t appear to have mastered even the center exchange just yet. Plus you have to factor in a couple of points in WKU’s favor given the feelings of discomfort, anxiety, and paranoia that will surely be caused by their mascot looming on the sidelines throughout the game.

RISK LEVEL 5: Standing up at a press conference and asking Nick Saban if Greg McElroy is a virgin

Louisiana Tech outright at Auburn, 4 p.m. Saturday

Everyone who went to a bowl last year, step forward! . . . You stay right where you are, Auburn. Once upon a time, any team with a floundering offense could get well simply by throwing LaTech on the schedule, but third-year head coach Derek Dooley has succeeded in hauling LTU’s defense up from dead last in the nation in ‘06 to a somewhat more respectable 74th last year, and he’s got 16 starters returning from the team that went 8-5 and won the Independence Bowl. They were also 1-0 against the SEC, beating Mississippi State at home in their opener, and while they have to go on the road to face Auburn this weekend, can anyone state with absolute confidence that Auburn’s offense, with Chris Todd starting under center and their third new playbook in as many years, will be any better than State’s was last year? And if you think even Gene Chizik can’t lose a game like this, tell that to Kent State and Northern Iowa, who got Chizik off to an 0-2 start in his brief tenure at Iowa State (both of those losses coming at home). Yes, all this aside, a LaTech upset is still a long shot, but Derek’s parents, Vince and Barbara Dooley, are both Auburn grads, and I read in the paper the other day that even they will be rooting for LTU this weekend. The article said this was at Barbara’s insistence, and she is not a woman to be fucked with.

Programming note: Swindle is flitting about the Metro ATL area like an overly excited, be-fauxhawked schoolgirl and I’m typing through a haze that makes me wish Prohibition had never been repealed. Here is some highly subjective and illogical soothsaying. Game thread up a little later. Go cure cancer.

#23 Pittsburgh @ Connecticut

HOLLY, FOR NO REAL REASON OTHER THAN LOLZ: The Wannstache is a master of his craft.  His craft is finding ways to lose juuuust enough games for no reason to make us all ignore him, then start winning just to piss us off. Pitt finds itself somehow sitting pretty at 8-3, and none of you had any idea, did you? Be that as it may, this is still the team that lost to Bowling Green.  Oooh, and Rutgers (and yes, we are very sorry we weren’t around for Mike Teel’s one-man show last night).  McCoy runs thisaway, Brown runs thataway, and this one’ll come down to whoever can kill enough of the clock in Q4. Huskies for the upset.

Navy vs. Army

HOLLY, INDIFFERENT (BUT PATRIOTIC, YOU BETCHA): Both teams can run. Both teams can also defend the run with relative ease. Neither one has had to pass, or had much success when trying all season.  Navy’s on a five-game streak against Army, but for the first time in a very long while the Black Knights (someone important please name our actual Army the Black Knights, all of it) ain’t that bad.  Navy, by force of habit.

#17 Boston College vs. #25 Virginia Tech

HOLLY, READY TO JETTISON THIS ENTIRE G-DAMN CONFERENCE INTO THE OCEAN FOR WHICH IT IS NAMED: We were tossing around the idea of taking a field trip to the ACCCG, purely because we were betting on getting prime seats somewhere in the $4.50 range and being able to drink ourselves stupid on television. You know what?  This game isn’t even worth watching for the novelty factor.  Pass.

Washington @ California

HOLLY, ONLY HALF-JOKINGLY APOLOGETIC: Look, we pick ten games and there’s not a whole lot in the way of choice this week.  Would you rather read about Western Kentucky-Florida International’s impending barnburner?  Me too, actually. Oh, and UW has this one chance to avoid going winless on the year, and it’s not a very good chance, because they are terrible. Fin.

#5 USC @ UCLA

HOLLY,  CAREFREELY MIXING METAPHORS: Palmam qui meruit ferat, lawyas. This’ll be fun.  USC’s taking their home jerseys to the Rose Bowl, shrugging off the two timeout penalty like it’s nothing, but in their defense, that’s only because it is nothing.  They will roll; they will roll large; Bruins Nation will lose their collective shit, again, and we will snicker at their righteous indignation for hours while sipping a variety of delicious cocktails. Yes, the football monopoly in Los Angeles is over, Bruins. It’s really more of a theocracy these days, and your graven idol is cardinal and gold.

It is to laugh!

#20 Missouri vs. #2 Oklahoma

HOLLY, HOOKING ‘EM: Mizzou.  Please?  I mean, we’ve seen this number once before this year, right?  Scary-ass Big XII South team stumbles badly against a slightly less well-regarded opponent? They can stop the run, can Mizzou, and Sam Bradford guarding torn ligaments in his spare hand might scorch the earth just a little bit less than he would at full strength (that’s assuming he can even hang onto the snaps this week).  Chase, buddy, you pull this one out and they’ll be carrying you through the streets of Kansas City on a P’Zone-encrusted pillow.  Doesn’t that sound like fun?

Arizona State @ Arizona

HOLLY, GRASPING AT MAYBE THE ONLY REMAINING STRAW WE HAVE: [to be read in your best In A World Guy voice]  In a season of madness….in a time of change….only one man….only one law…..stands between the forces of logic….and the destruction of all. we. know.  MIKE STOOPS.  LOSES FOOTBALL GAMES.  Rated PG-13.  Starts Saturday in selected desert stadia.

South Florida @ West Virginia

HOLLY, IN NO WAY PLOTTING A MORGANTOWN COUP FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE OF FIRING BILL STEWART, THEN PEACEFULLY SURRENDERING TO THE AUTHORITIES WITH THE SATISFACTION OF A JOB WELL DONE: Any AFC loyalists in the house? Got, say, a New England fan in your life who continually crows about how terrible the conditions are at Gillette and how that somehow makes his team superior because geography dictates they occasionally play in snow? I hate that shit.  Tomorrow, though?  It’s going to be 20ish degrees at kickoff in Morgantown, and that’s an edge West Virginia will desperately cling to if they know what’s good for them, because if there’s one thing Bill Stewart could fuck up better than everything else he’s fucked up this year (WHICH IS SAYING SOMETHING), it’s Pat White’s curtain call.  Things work out best for the Mountaineers lately with White operating as shadow-coach, so just enjoy your Ovaltine, Stewie, and let darling Pitty-Pat’s little legs power you through to an eight-win season that should’ve been at least eleven.  YOU FUCKING USELESS CRETIN BOBBLEHEAD REBOUND BITCH.  [deep, calming breaths]

Happy trails, sweet warrior.

#13 Cincinnati @ Hawaii

HOLLY, CHEERING FOR ORANGE BEAR/CAT HYBRIDS OUT OF REFLEX:
We’re fairly baffled, still, as to why this game is even on the schedule, but TOP SCORE to whoever’s responsible on the Cincy end for getting those poor kids out of Ohio in December (and down to Florida in January, come to that).  Also, they will trounce Hawaii, and it will not matter, even to Hawaii, who has already accepted an invitation to the Hawaii Bowl Hawaii Hawaii.  Hawaii.

#1 Alabama vs. #4 Florida

HOLLY, PRETTY RATIONAL CONSIDERING THE CIRCUMSTANCES: So here come the only worthy contenders, nearly unbloodied after a season in bat country, to face their first and only real test of the year.  I’m taking the Gators.  They haven’t blinked or flinched since that unfortunate Giggitying in September, haven’t been caught sleepwalking once, which is more than I can say for the Tide even though they’re the undefeated squad. Nothing save that one Ole Miss game has been remotely close, all year. In their eleven victories,  they’ve outscored their opponents by an AVERAGE of thirty-seven (37) points.  And while the competition hasn’t been the stiffest, what should scare Tide faithful is how much time Florida’s had to workshop this machine all year. When you’re up five scores it leaves plenty of spare minutes on the clock to tweak, experiment, and hone your freakshow war engine to whiplash perfection.

(All the same, I’m still cheering for the meteor.  Which ain’t all that farfetched, since the last time Swindle was in the Georgia Dome, this happened.)

Texas A&M @ #2 Texas

HOLLY, QUASI-RATIONAL: Sorry to make an afterthought of you, Agros, but the question here isn’t a Texas win or loss, but a Texas win blowout-y enough to maintain its eensy BCS lead over Oklahoma or not.  Still worried about the ‘Horns run game?  They can leave it at home, thanks to A&M’s very gracious (91st-ranked) pass defense.  Light ‘em up, Battle Cattle.

Grateful for: My veryown Daddy, for teaching me to recognize a 4-3 defense and how to grip a football before I had the training wheels off my first bike.

ORSON, DOING MACK BROWN TWO-STEP. If there is a crack, Mack Brown will be up between the sticky buttocks with a fierceness that will shock and astonish those who have never seen the politician in full attack mode. As much as we’d like Texas A&M to extend the dominion of Barlorath, the 5-headed visigoth spirit who rules the last three weeks of the season with a bloody sceptre and orders barked through a platinum megaphone, and disturb the Longhorns’ claim to a national title slot, the Longhorns are in resume mode. Snap to, Slothrop: them bombs is comin’ down hard and fast all day. The Aggies electoral map shows massive landslide for Senator Brown.

Grateful for: My dog, who holds down the couch with authority.

WFV @ #25 Pitt

HOLLY, WOOOOOOOOORATIONAL: VENGEANCE IS, Y’ALL!

This is the grudge match of the season, right’chere. “Pitty”Pat White will pad his QB rushing yards lead, couches will tremble, and the—wait, what? What do you mean, “Bill Stewart still works there”? Like, as a coach? Of the football team? Oh, man. Oh, they’re fucked.

Grateful for: Erik, JL, and their precious baby girl, my only family in California. (Even though they’re Penn State/Ohio State loyalists. Love knows no conference.)

ORSON, TOTALLY IRRATIONAL. Wannstache loses game they should have won: check. Wannstache should, by rule, demonstrate competence this week and win…unless the plan involves a counterintuitive collapse late, which with all this winning that’s been going on around Pittsburgh seems oddly logical.

Fighting this impulse: the Bill Stewart factor, which is like the Wannstache factor, but with worse clock management and a mustache. Take the Wannstache, because in the battle of which blind pilot’s landing this plane, we’ll take the guy who kind of looks like a swingin’ 70s Eastern Airlines air jockey.

Grateful for: The good people at TSN, who pay me to write about running and vomiting at the same time.

UCLA @ Arizona State

ORSON, QUASI-RATIONAL. Kevin Craft cannot throw a pass further than 7 yards down the field with accuracy; after the sticks, his passes might as well be paper airplanes. Arizona State puts their miserable season to an end with a satisfying final bullet against UCLA, who’s had it worse than poor Rudy Carpenter–and he’s the guy whose body is almost entirely made of spackle and bondo at this point.

Grateful for: Ole Miss beating Florida, which awakened some kind of latent awesome gene in them, thus turning them into world-beating ass barons this year.

HOLLY, IRRATIONAL: No one particularly understands how Rudy Carpenter is still alive (it would be foolish to discount the theory that he died in week 4 and it’s all being done with sticks and mirrors). Luckily for Rudy and any small children watching, while UCLA’s pass defense is quite serviceable, their sacks record is not.

Grateful for: The Edison, my personal mothership and the creepsome-freak-happiest place on earth.

#22 Georgia Tech @ #11 Georgia

HOLLY, QUASI-RATIONAL: After their oddly inept showings against Florida and Kentucky, I’m all kinds of done predicting Georgia will step up, particularly against GT’s stealthily excellent rushers (fourth in the country. Fourth!).  The Dawgs will prevail, but only because they have to, and I don’t see them doing so in a particularly skillful fashion.   You’re better than this, Georgia.  Act like it.

Grateful for: Gymnastics blooper videos.

ORSON, QUASI-RATIONAL. We’re actually thinking one of Georgia’s best quantities–Rennie Curran–could be a total liability in this game, as he’s so fast and aggressive that Tech’s three-card-monte option game could have him running past plays in pursuit of men who no longer have the ball. The other worry for Georgia: Tech’s defensive line, a truly heinous unit that turned a bad Miami offense into slobbering zombies in under a quarter of work. 6′7″ Michael Johnson will bring back the sun when he decides to, young man. Georgia, but only because you have just a teensy bit more talent than Tech does on the scoring side of things.

Grateful for: My mother, who doesn’t flinch when I say motherfucker.

Auburn @ #2 Alabama

ORSON, QUASI-RATIONAL. Auburn’s offense.

Alabama, because rockets should go further than two feet, and as Georgia Tech’s offense has shown, having an antediluvian offense is no excuse for poor execution.

Grateful for: The city of Atlanta, the home of chicken-fried surrealism.

HOLLY, IRRATIONAL AND BOARDING UP WINDOWS: Alabama has the talent differential, the coaching acumen differential, and the totally bitchingest proprietary fabric pattern differential working in their favor. Auburn, though…Auburn’s on the side of the angels. We’ve been toying with this idea like a particularly spiteful ball of yarn for a couple weeks now, but admit it: Tide fans aside, you want to see Auburn notch that crucial sixth win in Tuscaloosa. You have to. It makes no sense to think that they will, mind…but it’s crazy not to want it.

Grateful for: The Sports Night 10th Anniversary box set.

#4 Florida @ #20 Florida State

ORSON, LITERIRRATIONAL: Urban Meyer in rivalry games has a special knack for channeling the seventh century B.C. poet Archilocus:

My one great talent lies in making
those who wrong me suffer horribly.

As far as the poetry on the other side goes:

As he is not half as eloquent as his classmate Archilocus, Bobby Bowden loses the battle of poetry and that of the gridiron, because simply by being the coach of his designated other, he must suffer the wrath of Meyer and his team of mach 5 Lilliputians. To the pain, Florida.

Grateful for: The Economist subscription my in-laws get me every year. It is the only thing standing between my brain it becoming a tasty gel-like substance served on toast points at parties.

HOLLY, LOSING INTEREST: Whatever video game the Gators have trapped the bulk of their competition in since, oh, September, they might want to ratchet up the difficulty level just to keep us interested.  Florida State will be of no help in this regard. Bring on Bama already.

Grateful for: Shark Week.

Baylor @ #7 Texas Tech

HOLLY, BAWWWWWWWWW LOOKIT: There are some bears that are not to be feared.

Grateful for: My mother, who while still not over last year’s post-Florida wagering “incident”, has at least stopped yelling about it every time anyone mentions The Internet. And for never telling my dad about it.

ORSON, WEARING BLACK SUIT. Look away. Nothing to see here. That screaming is a drill. No, wait, that’s screaming. Fire? No idea what you’re talking about. That’s merely swamp gas reflecting the glow of the full moon. Bodies? They’re just sleeping. If you could look into this light, please, you’ll soon understand that this wasn’t so much a game, but a release of great anger and pressure upon a hopelessly outmatched opponent [FLAAAAAAAAASH!]

Grateful for: LSUFreek, Holly, and Donnie, without whom this site would be infinitely poorer than it already is in every way.

Kentucky @ Tennessee

ORSON, QUASI-RATIONAL. We expect Randall Cobb to show his best game as a starter here, and to be unleashed hell in cleats next year. What the hell: Kentucky, because both teams are a push on defense and because Tennessee’s offense remains so horrendous its black cloud of suck is altering weather patterns in North Carolina.

Grateful for: Coffee.

HOLLY, RESIGNED: I don’t know. I really don’t know about this one. I can’t name a single genuine gamebreaker in blue and white, but will it matter? Also there’s this. Dammit, man, your name had “Claw” in it! We trusted you! More importantly, you could’ve had the greatest pantheon of nicknames in the history of college football, had you managed to, y’know, coordinate an offense. Oh, what might have been.

Grateful for: Eric “Jesus Football Christ” Berry, Britton “BAC” Colquitt, Nick “Tell ‘em, Nicky-Steve” Stephens, and all the rest of Tennessee’s once and future gamebreakers.  Heads up.

#23 Oregon @ #17 Oregon State

ORSON, IRRATIONAL. Even without Jacquizz Rodgers we trust Oregon State to win because they’ve stolen Tommy Tuberville’s close game mojo, cobbling together winning scores from one TD a game and a magic grab bag of safeties, field goals, defensive scores, and whatever else he can turn into points. The Coupon Team of the West Coast makes it three in a row over the Ducks for your improbable Pac-10 champions, the Oregon State Beavers. Beaver. Heh.

Grateful for: Someone giving me a copy of P.J. O’Rourke’s Holidays in Hell.

HOLLY, IRRATIONAL: Oregon State, for the sole reason that a USC-Penn State Rose Bowl would be the sleepiest bloodbath.

Grateful for: Herr Swindle, for giving me a very large platform upon which to call Tennessee AD Mike Hamilton a goatfucker with ever-increasing frequency and ardor, and for telling me, “Write whatever you want, whenever you want”, and meaning it.

#3 Oklahoma @ #12 Oklahoma State

HOLLY, TREPIDATIOUS: If Oklahoma plays like they’ve been proving they can, there’s not a whole lot Gundy & Friends will be able to do to stop them.  Fine. What we’re all really looking ahead to is the horrorshow scrum to follow as the Big XII South teams are reduced to BCS dependency to get them into their own conference title game. SEC East Ghost of Seasons Past (You Know, When We Were Good Too) nods knowingly and extends a sad fist bump. Courage, gents.

Grateful for: You lot.  No, really.  Yes, Bammer/Barner threadjackers, even you.  Especially you.  It’s like having a buncha them pet fish that fight, or a playroom full of toddlers that can drink and talk back, which is to say you are all unbridled joys, each in your own way.

LOKI, JUST BEIN’ LOKI. WOULD NOT IT BE A FUN IF YOU HAD DE SOONERS LOSE DIS GAME! JUST LIKE LOKI’S FINEST WORK, WHEN HE FOULED UP ALL SWEDES UNDERWEAR WITH THE POWDER MAKING THE UNSTOPPABLE ITCH! MUHAHAHAHAHAHAHHAA!!!!

UNFORTUNATELY THE LOKI IS BUSY FILMING CAMEO IN NEW WAYANS BROTHERS MOVIE “THAT ASS WHICH IS SO STANK,” THE TALE OF THE BROTHERS BORN WITH BLACK BODIES BUT WHITE ASSES WHO MUST HIDE THEIR SECRET IN ELABORATE AND THE FUNNIEST OF WAYS. OKLAHOMA STATE, WE SEEING YOU NEXT YEARS!!!

Grateful for: TCOAN, the greatest boss anyone could ask for. The beatings will continue until morale improves, and we’re fine with that as long as you use the rubber hose, and not the claw hammer. Unless we ask specifically for the claw hammer, that is.