Once again, man-hugs of inappropriate affection and duration to our resident degenerate gambler Doug Gillett.

RISK LEVEL 1: Throwing into coverage against a Willie Martinez secondary
New Mexico +28 at Utah, 6 p.m.
After last week’s disastrous picks, which began with a supposedly easy bet for New Mexico State to sneak under a gargantuan line against the Buckeyes, I must be crazy to put money on any team from the Land of Enchantment again, particularly one that has yet to win a game this season. (Congratulations, Mike Locksley: Not only are you the only coach in DI-A to earn both a sex-discrimination complaint and a reprimand for slugging one of your own assistants, you’ve also accomplished what was previously thought impossible by elevating NMSU to the status of premier football program in your state. One hundred cocktails, baller.) But the law of averages says the Lobos are going to win a game eventually, no matter how unlikely that might sound, and it might even happen this weekend, with Utah potentially nursing a QB controversy following an ugly home win over Wyoming last week. The Utes have quietly crept back up the rankings since their early-season loss at Oregon, but none of their wins have been blowouts, even the ones over mediocre-to-submediocre MWC opposition; they’ve also got a date at TCU next week that I suspect will be occupying most of their mental energies for the next few days. Betting on a straight Lobo upset requires bigger cojones than I’ve got, but it doesn’t take an undue amount of bravery to picture UNM squeaking inside a four-TD line in spite of their recent awfulness.

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Dollar Bill Doug soldiers through another week, bloodied but unbowed in his effort to pick games correctly against the spread. Enjoy.

RISK LEVEL 1: Going swimming less than 30 minutes after eating: New Mexico State +44 at Ohio State, noon

NOOOOOOOO YOU’VE GONE MAAAAAAAAAD

Stipulated, New Mexico State is a bad team — last in the nation in total offense, next to last in scoring offense, bottom quintile in turnover margin. About the best thing going for them right now is that they’re the one D-IA program in New Mexico whose coach has enough self-control to refrain from punching his assistants, which is surely a great boon in those in-state recruiting battles. But Ohio State hasn’t scored more than 40 points all season long — even against the moribund defenses of Toledo and Illinois — so I’m at a loss to figure out why Vegas thinks they’re suddenly going to scrape 50 against the Aggies, particularly with their top two running backs, Brandon Saine and Daniel Herron, questionable due to various injuries. Maybe Jim Tressel will use this as an opportunity to let embattled QB Terrelle Pryor open things up a little, but consider that this game comes a week before a road date with 12th-ranked Penn State — how much of his hand is he really gonna show this week? This is a guy to whom the zone read option remains almost as exotic as snorting powdered rhino horn off the ass of a Vietnamese hooker at Burning Man. (Not as awesome an experience as she promised me it would be, incidentally.)

RISK LEVEL 2: Running into Tim Tebow in Jacksonville this weekend and offering him a toke: Tulane +35 at LSU, 8 p.m.

This spread seems a little more reasonable than the tOSU-NMSU line on paper, but LSU’s offense has been struggling almost as much as the Buckeyes’ — 31 points remains their high-water mark for the season — and the Tigers have been even more prone to playing down to the level of their opponents, at least over the past couple seasons. (more…)

Dollar Bill Doug ups the ante yet again this week by picking picking BYU in a road game, going against the magic of Count Giggity, and assuming Al Groh will win a game you expect him to win. The sanity can be questioned; the daring, however, is undeniable. Enjoy this weeks’ picks.

RISK LEVEL 1: Brigham Young +2.5 vs. Texas Christian, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

First of all, a mea culpa: My last three picks at Risk Level 1 — i.e. the picks that are supposed to be as close to dead-solid locks as you’ll find — have all failed to cover (or, in Southern Miss’s case, failed to win period, getting run out of Legion Field by a UAB squad that had never in its history tasted victory over the Golden Eagles). So while my immediate instinct is to pick a TCU win in this weekend’s big Mountain West matchup, I have no choice but to suspect that my faith in the Horned Frogs might be, shall we say, misplaced. Reasons to pick the Cougars in this game? There are some: TCU’s biggest strengths (a top-five defense and a running game currently bounding along at 225 yards per contest) match right up with BYU’s (top-10 scoring offense and the MWC’s second-best run defense). And the Horned Frogs’ defensive status has been built on the backs of oppnents who all rank 70th or lower in D-IA in total offense. Yes, BYU does have to ’splain away that uuuugly loss to Florida State a month ago, but as reputation-besmirching marks go, “got nutpunched by FSU” vs. “Doug Gillett’s gut instinct says you’ll win easily” is a push at best. I’m going against my better judgment here, and recent history suggests you’d be well served by doing the same: Stormin’ Mormons plus the points.

RISK LEVEL 2: Arkansas +6 at Ole Miss, 12:20 p.m. Saturday (more…)

Resident pickster Dollar Bill Doug has a case of the lucky sevens this week, either because it is week seven, or because that number also represents the number of games he’s actually managed to pick correctly against the spread. Point and laugh if you like, hater, but as Teddy Roosevelt said:

At least we think that’s the quote. All hail our gambling Maximus:

RISK LEVEL 1: Sitting too close to the TV: Navy -8 at Southern Methodist, 8 p.m.

It was an affront to naval aviation that would’ve made Goose spin in his grave: Last year, Navy pounded SMU 34-7 in Annapolis without completing a single pass. Check that: without attempting a single pass. If you can completely remove half of the typical offensive game from the equation and still win by four TDs, then either you’re really good at the half you kept, the other team really sucks, or in this case, both. Granted, SMU is a better squad this year, but it’s the kind of incremental improvement (i.e. the nation’s 74th-ranked run defense, up from 116th) that’s hardly guaranteed to make a major difference against the better teams on their schedule. I’m going to go way out on a limb here and predict that the Middies attempt at least a couple of passes this time around (file that under “Risk Level 0″ if you’re thinking about putting some money on it), but I also think they’ll keep SMU’s utterly one-dimensional offense in check and sail out of Dallas with a convincing win.

RISK LEVEL 2: Starting Tony Romo on your fantasy team on a weekend when the Cowboys are playing a game of any importance whatsoever: Louisiana-Lafayette -7.5 at Western Kentucky, 7 p.m.

After less than two months of “enjoying” (if that’s the word) full FBS status, the Hilltoppers are making every bit as strong a bid for “Absolute Worst Team in D-IA” status as you’d think they would. (more…)

An inappropriately affectionate welcome to our resident degenerate gambler Doug Gillett.

RISK LEVEL 1: Sneaking into a second movie after the movie you bought a ticket for ends
Indiana +7 at Virginia, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Oddsmakers usually aren’t the type to fall in love quickly, but that seems to be what’s going on here: Virginia takes on a UNC team whose offense has barely gotten untracked all season, wins a hideous game, and now all of a sudden Al Groh is a touchdown favorite over somebody. I bet the guy who set the line for this game is the type who thinks the stripper is actually “into” him.

Indiana’s not a great team, but they did nearly knock off Michigan in the Big House, and whatever they had in the tank for that game is likely more than what Virginia had against the Tar Heels. If past trends are any indication, Groh will eventually rouse himself from his Ensure coma and win just enough games to keep from getting fired, but it’s still a little early for that yet. Take the Hoosiers and wait to bet on Virginia until they play someone they really have no business beating; that’s how this works.

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Get your FREE MAD WAGERIN’ MONEY from our resident degenerate gambler, the improbably handsome Doug Gillett.

RISK LEVEL 1: Trying to cram a slightly-too-large carryon into the overhead bin
Southern Miss -10 at UAB, 8 p.m. Thursday

Colorado-West Virginia may be the headliner this Thursday night, but the undercard at Legion field provides the better opportunity for moneymaking. Once upon a time, Southern Miss played the Lucy to UAB’s Charlie Brown, letting them hang in the game just long enough to gather a little hope before yanking the ball away and sending them to defeat (seven straight losses from 2000 to ‘06, by a total of 37 points). Since Neil Callaway became UAB’s head coach, though, Lucy has stopped yanking the ball away at the last moment and decided to simply blast Charlie Brown in the chest with a Mossberg before he can even start running. Southern Miss has won the last two games by a total score of 107-21, and with UAB’s defense languishing at 116th in the country, there’s no reason to think USM’s offense won’t be dumping a ton more points on them. Don’t feel bad, though, Blazers — you’ll always have Rice.

RISK LEVEL 2: Saying “I can make it one more exit” after your low-fuel light goes on
Clemson -13.5 at Maryland, noon Saturday

Unlike last year, when nearly every team in the conference seemed to be within just a game or two of 6-6, this year’s ACC already has some very identifiable doormats, and Maryland is most certainly one of them — their sole win is an overtime shootout against I-AA James Madison. At first blush, Clemson doesn’t look a whole lot better at 2-2, but those two losses were last-second defeats at the hands of ranked teams, and the Tigers are coming off a string of solid defensive performances in which they’ve allowed opponents to convert only 9 of their past 39 third-down attempts. Maryland is good at . . . well, nothing, really, except for handing the ball back to their opponents (their -10 turnover margin ranks as the nation’s fourth-worst). Between the TO margin and the Terps’ bottom-quintile ranking in nearly every defensive category, Clemson’s stable of superb offensive talent looks poised to finally put together a breakout performance.
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As pickster Holly is not around to help us make our casting couch picks, we’ll have to just soldier through them without her.

Orson: Miami IS Ray Liotta IN Anything. Let’s face it: Ray Liotta was never meant to make a film without at least one scene of him burying his fist in the face of a sniveling punk of some sort. There was that unfortunate time when he attempted to branch out, sure. (Refer to this in the Liotta canon as the “Corrina, Corrina” phase, though he did stage a spirited fistfight with Whoppi Goldberg for a fight scene that met the cuttring room floor.) Similarly, Miami was never meant to experiment with being an emotional, 8-5 ACC team–

THUNDERCLAPS.

EXCUSE ME.

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Each week Dollar Bill Doug from Hey Jenny Slater gives you fair warning on the riskiness of certain wagers FOR ENTERTAINMENT PURPOSES ONLY on college football. Enjoy.

RISK LEVEL 1: Aiming for the little “shortcut” patch of fairway on the third hole of Wii Golf
Florida -21.5 at Kentucky, 5 p.m. Saturday

Danger comes in a thousand forms.

Urban Meyer claimed to be perfectly satisfied with his team’s much-closer-than-expected 10-point win over Kiffykins last week, but don’t let his outward nonchalance (or his swine flu excuses) fool you: Deep down the Model T-1000’s circuits have been set to “SEETHE” for the better part of a week now, and all that means is that some poor innocent motorist (i.e. Kentucky) is about to be thrown from his vehicle and then run over with it. (more…)

Please give a surly welcome to EDSBS gambling magnate Doug Gillett.

RISK LEVEL 1: Picking one of the “Manager’s Favorites” on a whim at Blockbuster
Florida -28.5 vs. Tennessee, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Honestly, what can I say about this game that Pieter Bruegel the Elder didn’t depict much more vividly in The Triumph of Death? This was going to be a blowout even before Lane Kiffin’s ego started writing checks that neither his body nor his playbook could cash; now that his trash talk has caused the Cyberdyne Systems Model T-1000 known to us humanoids as “Urban Meyer” to become sentient and program itself to terminate him with extreme prejudice, CBS may, for the first time, be forced to rate an NCAA football broadcast “TV-MA” for extreme graphic violence. The only way Tennessee squeaks under the four-TD line is if Monte Kiffin can (sorta) bail his kid out by dialing up enough defense to keep the Gators’ slightly re-jiggered offense from running completely wild. But given that the UT offense might be lucky to score at all behind turnover machine Jonathan Crompton, that becomes a taller order still. Florida whacked the Vols by 24 last year, on the road, with the Gator offense demonstrably not even trying that hard; this year’s game will make that one look like a minor disagreement between friends.

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The first matchup I need to cover this week, as it is integral to the success of all the others, is Beard +14 vs. Itch. See, after I got laid off a couple months ago I made a vow that I wasn’t going to trim my beard until I got a formal job interview, and while I had achieved a pretty cool Mountain Man/Taliban look as of this past weekend, I really couldn’t point to a single good thing that’s happened since I started growing it out (the Dawgs’ loss to Okie State and last week’s atrocious picks record being only the latest miseries). So on Tuesday I risked a week’s worth of acute itchyface by sawing it back to a nice, manageable Colin-Farrell-stumbling-out-of-some-random-chick’s-apartment-at-6-a.m. scruff, and I have yet to regret it:

Bad beard mojo, begone! Let the healing (and better picks) begin!

RISK LEVEL 1: Drinking a Starbucks venti French Roast and eating two Burrito Supremes from Taco Bell before going on a long car trip: South Carolina +7 at Georgia, 7 p.m. Saturday

Considering how extraordinarily lucky either of these teams were to have even scored seven points on opening weekend, the touchdown spread in this matchup already looks a little shady. And this series has been a defensive slugfest in even the most favorable of circumstances: Only twice in the Mark Richt era has the margin of victory in this game been more than one score, and the average outcome has been a Georgia victory by a mere 6.5 points. (more…)