RISK LEVEL 1: Watching the “awesometits.wmv” video your friend sent you on your work computer
Stanford -7.5 vs. California, 7:30 p.m.

What do you know: Turns out going full Costanza actually worked pretty well last week. OK, it didn’t work perfectly, but 3-2 still beats the 0-5s I was routinely putting up when I was going with my gut. (Stupid gut — it’s the one who told me AIG was “too big to fail” and that the guy who offered to sell me weed in a Vegas airport bathroom totally wasn’t a cop.) This week my gut’s been hinting that Stanford can’t possibly have a whole lot left in the tank after steamrolling Oregon and USC to the tune of 106 total points in back-to-back weeks, but if a major letdown was such a big risk for these guys, they probably would’ve lost to USC to begin with; as long as they’ve got Toby Gerhart (might some Heisman love be in line for this gentleman? Hello? Is this thing on?), they’ve got juice to spare. Maybe the one we should be asking those questions about is Cal — sure, they managed to come from behind to beat Arizona last week, but back-to-back big-game wins haven’t exactly been the forte of recent editions of the TedfordBot. (Don’t worry, though — when TedfordBot Vista comes out next year, all those problems will be solved. Really. We promise.)

RISK LEVEL 2: Peeing in front of a bunch of Georgia fans

Tennessee -16 vs. Vanderbilt, 7 p.m.

Following a world-class reaming from DEX-TAH MAH-CLUS-TAH and the Rebels, Tennessee returns home this weekend to lick their wounds, check in with their probation officers, and swat away a team who’s beaten them only once in their last 26 tries. Initial instinct was to say Tennessee’s defense was too banged-up to make a 16-point win a good bet, but then I remembered that only applies if the opponent has an offense, and Vandy doesn’t (100th or worse in every single major offensive category). The one thing Vandy has been able to do consistently this season is defend the pass, which means we could see the return of Bad Jonathan Crompton this week, but that’s only if Kiffin is dumb enough to put the game in his hands in the first place. Otherwise, he’ll simply wind up Montario Hardesty and Bryce Brown and send them at the SEC’s worst run defense (just a smidge under 200 yards allowed per game), in which case a 16-point drubbing becomes that much more likely. Not much you can do about it, Vandy fans — just lie back and think of Nashville, and stay away from the Pilot stations while you’re at it.

RISK LEVEL 3: Asking for directions from a provocatively dressed lady on Ponce de Leon Avenue after midnight
Clemson -20.5 vs. Virginia, 3:30 p.m.

Those tapping their feet and waiting for Dabo Swinney to continue Tommy Bowden’s tradition of late-season collapses have pretty much run out of time — the Tigers are riding a five-game winning streak and have already clinched the Atlantic Division’s berth in the ACC title game. So with the hard part done and Virginia’s WTF upset mojo apparently spent (they’ve lost four in a row, by an average of 19 points), there’s no reason to think Clemson won’t cap off their sterling ACC run with a beatdown in Death Valley. Virginia’s 86th-ranked run defense doesn’t have much hope of stopping C.J. Spiller, not when he’s got Heisman voters to impress, and even if they do, Clemson won’t need all that many points to cover the spread against a team that’s only scored four offensive touchdowns in its last five games (and got one of those on a 2-yard drive at the very end of the game against Maryland). Really, the riskier bet is how long after this game UVA finally puts Al Groh out of his misery; I’m putting the over/under at three days.

RISK LEVEL 4: Going for it on fourth-and-2 from your own 28 with a six-point lead over the Indianapolis Colts
LSU straight up at Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m.

I’ve gone back and forth on this one, but I’m deviating from the formula on this one and sticking with my initial gut feeling (hence the elevated risk level; proceed at your own peril) — Tigers in a straight upset in Oxford, for the simple reason that we’ve yet to see Houston Nutt win consecutive meaningful games this season. Actually, there are other reasons; for one, Dexter McCluster isn’t going to have as easy a time ripping the LSU linebackers as he did Tennessee’s ailing corps, and the Tigers get Jordan Jefferson back from the ankle injury that kept him out of the Louisiana Tech game. Jefferson has been a satisfactory as opposed to great passer this year, but he’s managed to keep the ball out of opposing DBs’ hands (with a 12:4 TD:INT ratio so far); the Rebel defense has been superb at containing QBs yardage-wise, but have only picked off seven passes all year and are languishing in the bottom half of DI-A in terms of efficiency. If Dexter McCluster goes wild again or if Jefferson’s ankle gets re-injured and Jarrett Lee gets brought in, all bets are off, but otherwise I’ll stick with my initial read, thanks.

RISK LEVEL 5: Cutting in front of Mark Mangino in line at KFC

Utah State +23 vs. Boise State, 9:30 p.m. Friday

Three more games for the Broncos, three more opportunities to prove they belong in a BCS bowl, three more near-certain victories. But that doesn’t mean they can’t get chased a little in the process, and that’s been a surprisingly frequent occurrence for them when they’ve played on the road (Fresno State trailed them by only seven into the fourth quarter; turned in a so-so offensive performance at Tulsa and only won by a TD; had to withstand a furious comeback attempt from Louisiana Tech). Utah State is no more of an upset risk than their 3-7 record would suggest, but they do know how to score some points, and that could be enough to keep this game out of massive-blowout territory, particularly if BSU is looking ahead to next Friday’s de facto WAC title game against Nevada. I’ll return to the Costanza strategy here and go against my initial instinct to take Boise and the juice.

RISK LEVEL 1: Opening an e-mail with the subject line “Hey look at this”

Georgia -5 vs. Auburn, 7 p.m.

If nothing else is working…go full Costanza.

First of all, let me say that y’all are a more forgiving commenting community than I could’ve ever dreamed. My picks have been absolutely horrendous so far this season, but y’all have mostly refrained from ripping me the new asshole I so richly deserve. There’s no beating around the bush, though — I’ve gone 0-5 two straight weeks and it’s time to shake things up. So this week I’m picking the opposite of my first instinct for all five games. And since my first instinct was to wonder how in the holy hell Georgia’s sputtering offense is supposed to cover five points on an Auburn team that appears to have put its three-game schnide behind it, I am forced to assume that the oddsmakers know something I don’t and that Georgia is about to post a big win. That something might be Georgia’s running game, which at long last appears to be getting into a groove and is poised to rip through Auburn’s 93rd-ranked rush defense. Or maybe the guys in Vegas think Chris Todd’s recent resurgence is a mirage (only 12 completions against Ole Miss, even though they were long; run-’em-up numbers against a lousy Furman team). Either way, though, my abiding belief in an Auburn upset should be all the convincing you need to bet the house on the Dawgs. See how this works? It’s easy!

RISK LEVEL 2: Double-fisting tequila and scotch whisky at your 30th birthday party (not that I, uh, know anything about that)

Ole Miss -4 vs. Tennessee, noon

Ole Miss as a favorite is another one I’m not ashamed to admit I don’t get. Jevan Snead gets well against a three-game suckfecta of the pass defenses of UAB, Arkansas, and Northern Arizona (dropping one to Auburn somewhere in there, of course), and all of a sudden we’re supposed to believe he’s going to get it done against Monte’s Marauders? Here’s the thing, though: As murderous as Eric Berry and Janzen Jackson have been, the seven guys in front of them are as banged-up as any defense in DI-A, and after heroic efforts against Alabama, South Carolina, and Memphis in consecutive weeks, it’s legitimate to wonder whether they’ll have enough left in the tank to go on the road and stop Dexter McCluster. On the other side of the ball, Jonathan Crompton has looked bizarrely awesome over the last few weeks and is due for a bad day against the Rebels’ top-15 scoring defense. A few weeks ago, I openly mocked the idea that Ole Miss was going to cover six on what looked like a surging Arkansas team and got played; this week it’s the Vols that look like they’re on the move, but maybe, just maybe, Houston Nutt knows what he’s doing at this point.

RISK LEVEL 3: Taking Cialis if you take nitrates, often prescribed for chest pain, as this may cause a sudden, unsafe drop in blood pressure

Ohio State -16.5 vs. Iowa, 3:30 p.m.

Knee-jerk reaction to this game: “Both of these teams have elite defenses and offenses that can’t get out of their own way, which means this is going to be a defensive trench battle and the Buckeyes stand about as much chance of scoring 17 points period as I do of scoring with Mila Kunis.”

No, Mr. Gillett. And security is on its way.

Last Saturday’s action, however, tells a slightly different story. Ohio State actually had a pretty efficient day on offense, with Terrelle Pryor accounting for three TDs and — shazam! — no turnovers; Iowa’s offense, meanwhile, died the death of Nicolas Cage in “Leaving Las Vegas” the minute Ricky Stanzi got knocked out with an ankle injury; in nearly three quarters’ worth of action following that injury, they totaled 127 yards, two turnovers, and a missed field goal. And this was against a defense that got shelled by Syracuse. So yes, Virginia, Ohio State can win this game by three scores — they did it last week in State College, after all — and after they do, the only thing left to focus on will be driving Rich Rodriguez one step closer to retirement. (Or a padded room.)

RISK LEVEL 4: Attempting to leave the Church of Scientology

Clemson -7 vs. North Carolina State, noon

Earlier this week I did a post for Dr. Saturday about Clemson’s ascent to the top of the ACC’s Atlantic Division and how the burden of being a favorite has been the program’s kiss of death in recent years. If recent history is any guide, then, the Tigers’ upset alert should be at DEFCON 1 this weekend. But Tommy Bowden is no longer around to trip over his own shoelaces in big games — and the Tigers’ opponent this weekend is North Carolina State, who’s allowed an average of 44 points to its last four opponents, a group that includes such scoreboard-ignitin’ juggernauts as Duke, Boston College, and Maryland. (Or to look at it another way: Clemson gave up only 54 net yards to Boston College earlier this year; State generously allowed 480.) The only thing keeping Clemson from romping here is its lingering irritable-bowel syndrome that always seems to pop up in big games; if Dabo Swinney truly has worked some kind of magic on the Tigers’ psyche, C.J. Spiller figures to romp in Raleigh and power his team to a big win. And Clemson can save the embarrassing upset for next week, when Al Groh will be raging away at his VCR for having failed to tape “NCIS” and looking to take his frustrations out on somebody.

RISK LEVEL 5: Nailing a Russian mobster’s mistress

UNLV +17 at Air Force, 6 p.m.

Air Force is a triple-option team; UNLV has the nation’s 111th-ranked run defense. So this game is a slam-dunk, right? Not necessarily; the Falcons have a road game against ranked BYU to look ahead to next week, while the Runnin’ Rebs are a “desperate” team who knows they have to win their final two games to earn bowl eligibility and, potentially, save their coach’s job. Air Force has only beaten one of its last six opponents by 17 or more points and was held below 20 points in three of those, so while the chance is a slim one, UNLV could make a game of this if they’re firing on all cylinders. (They may only have four cylinders to begin with, but even a Ford Focus can hold its own in a drag race if properly modified.)

RISK LEVEL 1: Throwing into coverage against a Willie Martinez secondary
New Mexico +28 at Utah, 6 p.m.
After last week’s disastrous picks, which began with a supposedly easy bet for New Mexico State to sneak under a gargantuan line against the Buckeyes, I must be crazy to put money on any team from the Land of Enchantment again, particularly one that has yet to win a game this season. (Congratulations, Mike Locksley: Not only are you the only coach in DI-A to earn both a sex-discrimination complaint and a reprimand for slugging one of your own assistants, you’ve also accomplished what was previously thought impossible by elevating NMSU to the status of premier football program in your state. One hundred cocktails, baller.) But the law of averages says the Lobos are going to win a game eventually, no matter how unlikely that might sound, and it might even happen this weekend, with Utah potentially nursing a QB controversy following an ugly home win over Wyoming last week. The Utes have quietly crept back up the rankings since their early-season loss at Oregon, but none of their wins have been blowouts, even the ones over mediocre-to-submediocre MWC opposition; they’ve also got a date at TCU next week that I suspect will be occupying most of their mental energies for the next few days. Betting on a straight Lobo upset requires bigger cojones than I’ve got, but it doesn’t take an undue amount of bravery to picture UNM squeaking inside a four-TD line in spite of their recent awfulness.

RISK LEVEL 2: Parking your car on a street in Ndamukong Suh’s neighborhood
LSU +8 at Alabama, 3:30 p.m.
Even when Alabama has been good in recent years, LSU has been happy to stand in their way. Four years ago, during Mike Shula’s one good season in Tuscaloosa, Les Miles’s first LSU team knocked off the Tide in overtime; last year, a Tide squad headed for 12-0 needed overtime to get past an LSU team well on its way to an embarrassing late-season slump. A year later, LSU finally seems to be getting it together on offense, winning their last two games by a score of 73-10, while undefeated Bama has seen its passing game trending downward (Greg McElroy’s QB rating is just 83.3 over his last three games). Nick Saban’s solution to this is apparently to open it up and let McElroy throw deep again, but that may or not be the answer against an LSU secondary that’s allowed its last four opponents to average only 159 yards and a 1:1 TD:INT ratio. Alabama’s defense is strong enough to carry the day here, but I don’t know that they’re going to put eight points’ worth of distance between themselves and the Tigers, particularly in what should be a low-scoring trench battle.

RISK LEVEL 3: Attempting R.E.M.’s “It’s the End of the World As We Know It (And I Feel Fine)” at a karaoke bar
Oklahoma -5 at Nebraska, 8 p.m.
Well, Nebraska fans, you got your wish: The Blackshirts appear to be back, as Bo Pelini has hauled the Cornhuskers back into the top 10 in nearly every statistical category on defense. Only one problem: In the immortal words of David Spade, “You couldn’t score in a monkey whorehouse with a bag of bananas.” The ‘Huskers are averaging only 12 points (and one offensive touchdown) per game over their last three, and have been held scoreless in 10 of their last 16 quarters. Meanwhile, the Sooners, left for dead after falling to 3-3 with a heartbreaking loss in the Red River Shootout, are keeping their heads above water with wins over Kansas and Kansas State — and maintaining a defense that’s every bit Nebraska’s equal, flummoxing perhaps the Big 12’s two best QBs (Colt McCoy and Todd Reesing) in consecutive weeks. The potential for OU’s offense to be rendered one-dimensional by Ndamukong Suh and the ‘Husker D makes this a little dicey, but it’s not like Nebraska figures to be much better; bet on Landry Jones to pull his team through with a solid, if aesthetically lacking, victory in Lincoln on Saturday.

RISK LEVEL 4: Not wearing proper eye protection around Brandon Spikes
Florida -34 vs. Vanderbilt, 7:15 p.m.
As recently as a few weeks ago, this would’ve looked like a sucker’s bet — Florida’s struggling offense couldn’t cover a spread to save their lives, while Vanderbilt, despite losing like clockwork, was keeping games close with a defense that managed to make opposing offenses look as sloppy as Vandy’s. Last week, though, the Gator offense got the same shot in the arm every team seems to be getting from Willie Martinez of late, while Vandy’s defense disappeared in the second half against Georgia Tech, their talent for keeping games close disappearing right along with it. Now, a five-TD victory by the Gators in the Swamp seems perfectly reasonable, and no, it doesn’t matter whether Brandon Spikes sits out for a half or not. Vandy’s offense has been so bad that Larry Smith’s season-ending hamstring tear actually looks like an opening for improvement (seriously, how much worse could Mackenzi Adams be?); otherwise, if Vandy even makes it into double digits on Saturday, one must conclude that Charlie Strong was half-assing it this week.

RISK LEVEL 5: Getting involved in a land war in Asia
South Carolina +6 at Arkansas, 12:20 p.m.
My first inclination was to put this game at the top of the column — Arkansas looked awful in a two-touchdown loss to Ole Miss a couple weeks ago and has a secondary ripe for pillaging by Stephen Garcia — but anyone who’s been reading this column over the past few weeks has almost certainly learned that my “Risk Level 1″ picks are to be second-guessed to within an inch of their worthless lives. This, too, is about the time of year when Steve Spurrier’s Gamecock teams have reliably gone straight into the tank (hell, with a four-point win over Vandy and a blowout loss to the Vols, the process may have already started), so I’m moving this game up to the highest risk level — while still holding out hope that Garcia might be empowered by the spirit of Tiny Floating Matthew McConaughey to keep the ‘Cocks within a touchdown of the Hogs in Fayetteville. (Had I put this game in the #1 spot, of course, the Gamecocks would end up losing by 30.)

RISK LEVEL 1: Sneaking into a second movie after the movie you bought a ticket for ends
Indiana +7 at Virginia, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Oddsmakers usually aren’t the type to fall in love quickly, but that seems to be what’s going on here: Virginia takes on a UNC team whose offense has barely gotten untracked all season, wins a hideous game, and now all of a sudden Al Groh is a touchdown favorite over somebody. I bet the guy who set the line for this game is the type who thinks the stripper is actually “into” him.

Indiana’s not a great team, but they did nearly knock off Michigan in the Big House, and whatever they had in the tank for that game is likely more than what Virginia had against the Tar Heels. If past trends are any indication, Groh will eventually rouse himself from his Ensure coma and win just enough games to keep from getting fired, but it’s still a little early for that yet. Take the Hoosiers and wait to bet on Virginia until they play someone they really have no business beating; that’s how this works.

RISK LEVEL 2: Buying a piece of stereo equipment that “fell off the back of a truck” from a guy in Manhattan
Alabama -6 at Ole Miss, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Remember when “Hey, maybe Spurrier wasn’t all that far off by voting Jevan Snead first-team All-SEC” was the trendy contrarian position? Ah, a different time, July. A couple months later, Snead has the third-worst QB rating in the conference (your fruit baskets are on the way, Jonathan Crompton and Mike Hartline!) and the Rebels are probably only a bad loss or two away from hanging a leftie onto the Independence Bowl Turnpike. I don’t see Snead having his big redemption performance against the nation’s 10th-best pass defense, nor do I see Saban losing a game like this when he knows the SEC West title is ripe for the taking. The Tide are probably due for a brain-fart performance on offense any week now, but it’ll happen in a game less critical to Bama’s title hopes than this one.

RISK LEVEL 3: Meeting Erin Andrews at a bar and asking her where she’s staying
Northwestern -20.5 vs. Miami-Ohio, noon Saturday
Miami-Ohio has gone from being the proud alma mater of Ben Roethlisberger to a team that didn’t even score until fourteen and a half quarters into the 2009 season; they’re still dead last in the nation in scoring offense with 11.6 points per game, so if the Wildcats can even make it to 32 points (which they’ve done in two out of three non-conference games so far this season) they should be good to go. NU will be putting up the Big Ten’s second leading player in total offense against the nation’s 93rd-ranked defense, and if they find themselves still short of a three-TD lead late in the game they can always count on Miami’s worst-in-the-nation turnover margin to hand them a shot at one more score. You know, Roethlisberger’s going to be in Detroit this weekend, just a straight shot down I-94 from Evanston; maybe he can swoop in and save the RedHawks, but barring that, there’s little reason to think they don’t get rolled here.

RISK LEVEL 4: Signing any kind of treaty with North Korea
Louisiana Tech +10.5 at Nevada, 9 p.m. Saturday
Two struggling offenses broke out in a big way last week, clobbering their opponents by an aggregate score of 90-34 and totaling 911 rushing yards between them. Louisiana Tech played their game on Wednesday night, though, so they’ve had three extra days to rest up and prepare for the Wolf Pack; they’re also sporting the nation’s 13th-best turnover margin, whereas Nevada managed to lose four fumbles even in their dismantling of UNLV to maintain a per-game turnover average even worse than Miami-Ohio’s. If the Wolf Pack continue to serve up the ball at regular intervals this weekend, LaTech can just aim Daniel Porter at the Nevada defense, grind away, and stay in the game just long enough to take the nation’s third-worst pass defense by surprise with some deep throws. That’s about the time that Derek Dooley’s INTENSE FACE has been known to make an appearance, and brother, that’s the last thing you want staring you down from the opposing sideline.

RISK LEVEL 5: Saying “surprise me” to the tattoo artist
Memphis straight up vs. UTEP, 8 p.m. Saturday
Let’s don’t beat around the bush here — both these teams stink, and this game was shaping up to be just another segment on C-USA Bumfights 2: Desperate Coaches Throw Down right up until UTEP unloaded on the ranked Houston Cougars last week. But the Miners came into that game ranked last in the nation in passing efficiency and total offense, dramatically increasing my suspicion that Houston was simply out of gas after knocking off a pair of Big XII teams back-to-back. The highly contagious strain of hemorrhagic FAILfever that has been passed from Georgia to Oklahoma State to Houston is now coursing through UTEP’s bloodstream, and the otherwise terrible Tigers are poised to take advantage. Oh, the final score of this game might end up 10-7, but it’ll happen — and then Memphis can be just happy enough with themselves to get blown into Post shredded wheat biscuits for the remainder of the season. Circle of life, folks, circle of life.

RISK LEVEL 1: Trying to cram a slightly-too-large carryon into the overhead bin
Southern Miss -10 at UAB, 8 p.m. Thursday

Colorado-West Virginia may be the headliner this Thursday night, but the undercard at Legion field provides the better opportunity for moneymaking. Once upon a time, Southern Miss played the Lucy to UAB’s Charlie Brown, letting them hang in the game just long enough to gather a little hope before yanking the ball away and sending them to defeat (seven straight losses from 2000 to ‘06, by a total of 37 points). Since Neil Callaway became UAB’s head coach, though, Lucy has stopped yanking the ball away at the last moment and decided to simply blast Charlie Brown in the chest with a Mossberg before he can even start running. Southern Miss has won the last two games by a total score of 107-21, and with UAB’s defense languishing at 116th in the country, there’s no reason to think USM’s offense won’t be dumping a ton more points on them. Don’t feel bad, though, Blazers — you’ll always have Rice.

RISK LEVEL 2: Saying “I can make it one more exit” after your low-fuel light goes on
Clemson -13.5 at Maryland, noon Saturday

Unlike last year, when nearly every team in the conference seemed to be within just a game or two of 6-6, this year’s ACC already has some very identifiable doormats, and Maryland is most certainly one of them — their sole win is an overtime shootout against I-AA James Madison. At first blush, Clemson doesn’t look a whole lot better at 2-2, but those two losses were last-second defeats at the hands of ranked teams, and the Tigers are coming off a string of solid defensive performances in which they’ve allowed opponents to convert only 9 of their past 39 third-down attempts. Maryland is good at . . . well, nothing, really, except for handing the ball back to their opponents (their -10 turnover margin ranks as the nation’s fourth-worst). Between the TO margin and the Terps’ bottom-quintile ranking in nearly every defensive category, Clemson’s stable of superb offensive talent looks poised to finally put together a breakout performance.

(The one downside of a big Clemson win on Saturday: It’s one of the day’s first kickoffs, so you’ll be subjected to Tim Brando chortling at his own “a little Dabo’ll do ya” jokes for nearly the entirety of CBS’s afternoon coverage.)

RISK LEVEL 3: Staying on 14 with a dealer ace
Oregon -32.5 vs. Washington State, 9:15 p.m. Saturday

So Oregon is actually a pretty good team after all. Who knew? Put your hand down, asshole, I don’t believe for one second that you knew the Ducks were going to pound Cal by 39 points. Well, now that we have that out of the way, we can get back to more relevant matters, like playing the “How many points will Washington State lose by THIS week” game. Wazzu’s three losses this season have come by an average of 22 points — which is actually an improvement over last year, in which their average loss was by 40 — and there’s no reason to think that the Cougars will fare any better than Cal did last week. The spread is yoooge, no doubt, and a Duck hangover in the wake of their big win over the Golden Bears could keep this thing from being a non-stop 60-minute taintpunching, but OU’s excellent record against the line at Autzen Stadium (16-7 as a home favorite over the last four-plus seasons) should inspire confidence.

RISK LEVEL 4: Going on a blind date with a chick you met on MySpace
Auburn straight up at Tennessee, 7:45 p.m. Saturday

The final SEC game to kick off this Saturday might also be the most interesting: Finally we’ll get to see whether the miraculous, I’m-not-entirely-sure-the-devil-wasn’t-involved offensive turnaround effected by Gus Malzahn at Auburn will stand up against a truly fierce SEC defense. There are a couple asterisks, though: First, the Vols gave up 340 yards and 23 points to a lousy Ohio offense at home last week, and second, they lost one of their most important field marshals, linebacker Nick Reveiz, to a season-ending knee injury. None of this is to say that Auburn is going to continue their third-in-the-nation scoring pace, not by a long shot. But even a portion of Auburn’s 45.25 points per game could be too much for the struggling Vol offense to overcome. (Fun fact: Jonathan Crompton and Auburn’s defense both have eight interceptions on the season; that’s tied for most in the nation for Crompton, fourth for the Tigers.) The really risky bet here is putting money on Chris Todd having another five-TD passing performance, which would be tantamount to grilling $100 bills on your backyard barbecue.

RISK LEVEL 5: Submitting your resume to Al Davis for a coaching position with the Raiders
Texas A&M straight up vs. Arkansas, 7:30 p.m. Saturday

There are lots of small reasons to pick the Aggies in this one — the nation’s sixth-ranked passing attack going up against the 107th-best pass defense — and one big one not to: It would involve having faith in a Mike Sherman-coached A&M team to win a big game against Bobby Petrino. But you should go ahead and have that faith anyway, because Jerry Jones being forced to watch his alma mater lose in his billion-dollar stadium is the kind of thing that would make a just, benevolent god very happy. What, you were expecting detailed statistical analysis? (Side bet: Will Jer bust out the Cowboys “cage dancers” for this most special of intersectional games? I’m putting a crisp Abraham Lincoln on yes.)

Orson: Miami IS Ray Liotta IN Anything. Let’s face it: Ray Liotta was never meant to make a film without at least one scene of him burying his fist in the face of a sniveling punk of some sort. There was that unfortunate time when he attempted to branch out, sure. (Refer to this in the Liotta canon as the “Corrina, Corrina” phase, though he did stage a spirited fistfight with Whoppi Goldberg for a fight scene that met the cuttring room floor.) Similarly, Miami was never meant to experiment with being an emotional, 8-5 ACC team–

THUNDERCLAPS.

EXCUSE ME.

HELLO ORSON I HAVE A CHALLENGE FOR YOU THAT YOU WILL BY DESIGN FAIL.

Orson: Please, everyone. Welcome Crazy Old Testament God to the–

COTG: YOUR PLEASANTRIES ARE USELESS NOW. THE SCHEDULE HAS CHANGED AND I MUST WORK THIS SATURDAY.

Orson: I thought you were usually off Saturdays, no?

COTG: NEW TESTAMENT GOD HAS AN APPOINTMENT WITH AN ESTATE PLANNER THAT DAY. EVEN GOD NEEDS A WILL AND IF YOU DON’T BELIEVE ME ASK ZEUS. I GOT THE TITANS AND A SWAN THAT RAPES THINGS IN THE DEAL. IF YOU HEAR FLAPPING WATCH YOUR ASS, BY THE WAY. HAVEN’T SEEN HIM IN A WHILE.

Orson: Right. So, a test you say?

COTG: YOU MUST GO TO YOUR ONLINE GAMBLING ACCOUNT WHICH THUS FAR HAS BEEN PROFITABLE THUS FAR THIS SEASON AND MAKE BETS AS A TESTAMENT OF YOUR FAITH IN ME. REFUSE AND BE SMITTEN.

Orson: Smoted? Smited? Smoten? What is the–

COTG: HOW ABOUT THIS? “OMG LOL URGE TO SMITE RISING.” GOOD ENOUGH FOR YOU BLOGGER-CHEEKS?

Orson: What does it look like when you smite someone?

COTG: ARE YOU FAMILIAR WITH THE NATION OF AFGHANISTAN?

Orson: As a general condition, sure.

COTG: THAT IS A PLEASANT SUBURB OF SMITESYLVANIA.

Orson: Ah. So, what do you command Karl Marx with a crown–er, Crazy Old Testament God?

COTG: FIRST YOU MUST PLACE MONEY ON MISSISSIPPI STATE TO UPSET LSU.

Orson: Um, sure. Why, exactly?

COTG: BECAUSE THEY PASSED A TEST OF FAITH I ASKED OF THEM YEARS AGO BY ASKING THEM TO HIRE JACKIE SHERRILL.

Orson: That worked out horrendously for them, though.

COTG: HAHAHAHAHAHA YES SO WILL THIS AND MANY OTHER THINGS I ASK OF YOU. OBEY OR BE SMOTEN.

Orson: [sotto voce] Smited.

COTG: I HEARD THAT. NEXT, TAKE MARYLAND TO BEAT RUTGERS OUTRIGHT.

Orson: Maryland lost to Middle Tennessee State last week for the second year running, sir.

COTG: BUT I SHALL REWARD THEM BY DOING WHAT I ALWAYS DO FOR THEM: BY GRANTING THEM A BIZARRE WIN AFTER A BIZARRE LOSS. YOU KNOW THIS IS TRUTH AND YE SHALL NOT DENY IT.

Orson: Well, that’s…that’s actually totally true, yes.

COTG: NOW PLACE SUBSTANTIAL MONEY ON VIRGINIA TECH TO BEAT MIAMI IN BLACKSBURG.

Orson: You’re just asking me to lose money now.

COTG: YOU KNOW WHO MY FAVORITE CARTOON CHARACTER IS?

Orson: Smite-y Mouse?

COTG: NO, UM…YES. WHERE DID YOU LEARN MY MATERIAL?

Orson: 2002-2004. The [NAME REDACTED] years, of course.

COTG: YES, JEREMY FOLEY. SO OBEDIENT TO HIS GOD. HE PASSED THAT TEST WELL. I HAVE ONE MORE FOR YOU, MORTAL SQUIDBAIT.

Orson: Please.

COTG: YOU SHALL TAKE OREGON OVER CAL.

Orson: I can’t. I know this whole thing is supposed to go badly for me, and the you get to laugh at my mortal woe, or maybe turn me into a pillar of salt or something, but I can’t bet against Cal here. This is their year.

COTG: I WILL REFRAIN FROM REDUCING YOU TO DUST FOR AN INSTANT AND ASK YOU A QUESTION: WHEN WAS THE LAST TIME A CAL TEAM UNDER JEFF TEDFORD CAME THROUGH WHEN THEY WERE SUPPOSED TO?

Orson: You have a point.

COTG: I AM EVERYWHERE AT ONCE. ASK HOUSTON NUTT ABOUT THAT. IF YOU WILL EXCUSE ME I HAVE TO RETURN JEVAN SNEAD’S TALENT TO HIM. I HAVE HAD IT FOR OVER 24 HOURS NOW.

Orson: Ha! Too bad for him.

COTG: THAT’S MY LINE.

Orson: [/SMOTTENATED]

BetUS.com has the lines for your pending NCAA Violations kings, and you can practically smell the free money, young wagerers:

USC 8-1 This would require the NCAA actually getting a hold of Pete Carroll, and he typically routes all inquiries to Commodore Diarrheamouth.

Ohio State 9-1 If Maurice Clarett can exist, period, for a year in Columbus without repercussions, it is safe to say that a huge “FREE MONEY” booth put up outside Ohio Stadium for athletes would draw zero attention from NCAA officials. Correction: this would draw zero attention unless Ball State lined up for free money, too, and then they would bring the hammer down on Youngstown State for the whole thing.

Florida 10-1 Nah. Remember, we only break criminal code in Gainesville, and are deeply familiar with the actual rules of recruiting and player compensation.

Ole Miss 10-1 Is this just a “Hey, Mississippi’s kind of corrupt and backwards” pick? Because if you’re looking for VSOP corruption, go west across the river for the masters. (The government, not the football program, and we don’t want to know any more for fear of implicating our readers and selves in the dark, spooky inner workings of the LSU football program LALALALALALALAFingersinears.)

Florida State 12-1 Well, sure. If you twist our arms.

Michigan State 12-1 Um…really? Mark Dantonio gets bent when his players don’t wear ties, so we can’t see it, unless you’re assuming some kind of transitive bleedover from Dantonio’s time with Tressel. Also, Michigan runs on a barter economy now, and it’s hard to trace illegal payments of timber and grain without invoices attached to it.

Alabama 13-1 Ah say, we are outraged–no, wait. This is probably too low.

The rest of the list is here, and if you want to retire early and live like rich people do–you know, drinking Champale on a catamaran while Christopher Cross plays in the background and a beautiful lady with big hair watches you through the binoculars from the deck of her house built entirely of glass bricks–you’ll put money on Tennessee, who isn’t even on the list for NCAA violations but could come through as the prop bet latecomer of the century here because Lane Kiffin knows the rules and is smart ‘n stuff. (HT: The Seventh Floor.)

PS. Oh, and you can’t even make decent money on Florida arrests anymore. Invest elsewhere, futures broker.

Georgia Tech at Boston College

HOLLY (QUASI-RATIONAL): What do you call it when you’re picking a team for completely unsound reasons but they’re the better team anyway? I like Georgia Tech because I also like yelling, “BEEEEEEEEEEES!!” on a crowded sidewalk, but that doesn’t mean I’m wrong.

ORSON (RATIONAL) Tech by creeping strangulation. Even against Jacksonville State the flexbone moved with grinding, almost infuriating pace, like some kind of giant horseshoe crab filterfeeding its way down the field, except that this horseshoe crab could occasionally make huge leaps, so really, it’s like a tarantula in armor, but underwater, and…goddammit, just take Tech and Dwyer, and add in Tech’s defensive line to pressure BC’s suspicious passing game into mistakes. Money spent on the Tarantulaleapingcrab-Bot is money well spent.

Southern Miss at Auburn

HOLLY (QUASI-RATIONAL): Southern Miss is plucky, upstartish, moxiefied, and fresh from knocking off Louisiana-Lafayette. This will not save them. Auburn has the devil’s own luck when it comes to close games, but they don’t need it this week. (The chop blocks will continue, y’know, to stay limber.)

ORSON (QUASI-RATIONAL): Southern Miss to cover, but Auburn will pull this out despite some horrific staggers because, after Chris Todd puts them in danger of an upset he will save them from all evil by boldly handing off to Ben Tate and Brad Lester. If you have not seen Brad Lester run: he kicks up his knees to mid-stomach on every stride, making tackling him in close quarters as appetizing as bringing down an Emu at a full run. Emu knees for the win, since we’re so big on transmogrified animal metaphors today.

San Diego St. at Notre Dame

HOLLY (IRRATIONAL): Because I had a perfect record in picks last week until MY OWN SCHOOL torpedoed me, I’m allowing myself one PureSpite (patent pending) upset pick to meet my emotional need for suffering in others. The Irish are going down like sweet muffins. (Please?)

ORSON (IRRATIONAL): OH set forth the banners flying and send telexes to the relative potentates! Don your short tie, place your hat upon your head as a gentleman would, and catch the early train bound for South Bend to watch OLD NOTRE DAME and the floating, seventy-pound head of Tom Hammond plow one of the ten worst teams in all of college gridiron creation.

Note: not because Notre Dame is good, which we don’t know, or because San Diego State is bad. (Which they gobsmackingly are.) Mostly because we’ll do anything to get the mesmerizing head of O’Brien Tom Hammond off our television screen, and an early Notre Dame lead means clock running and a quick game.

Like Harvey Birdman if he were a Mexican street hustler/exotic dancer.

Oregon St. at Penn St.

HOLLY (IRRATIONAL): I’ve tried everything—hypnotherapy, electroshock, black tar heroin—but there’s absolutely no way, empirically, that I could care less about this game, barring Paterno cannibalizing an errant receiver on the sideline. Penn State. I mean, I guess.

ORSON (IRRATIONAL WITH CAPITALS WTF) Sometimes, you drop your pants and make the revolution happen. In a weekend where only the personal blood is on the line with Miami/Florida, you have to throw a few molotov cocktails around to keep things interesting. See, I’m a man of simple tastes. I like gunpowder…and dynamite…and gasoline! Do you know what all of these things have in common? They’re cheap!

Air Force at Wyoming

HOLLY (QUASI-RATIONAL): The Falcons had 508 yards of offense in their season opener (against something called “Southern Utah, but still, god bless the Mountain West). Wyoming had problems putting away Ohio (not the good one). Advantage: Air Force.

ORSON (QUASI-RATIONAL): Air Force runs the triple option with streamers and bells on it over Wyoming with gleeful ease. While we are not aware of any serious research on this issues aside from eyeing the box scores and saying, “Wow, you barely beat a Frank Solich Ohio team,” there is also the issue of critical escalator shortages in Wyoming, which just has to have something to do with their football difficulties as of late.

W. Virginia at E. Carolina

HOLLY (QUASI-RATIONAL): Pat White is a machine. And he’s getting smarter. [SFX: CHCH-CH-CHCH. Metal skulls and glowing red eyes appear on the horizon.] He also piloted much of last week’s offense on the strength of his passes instead of his twinkle toes. East Carolina’s no Villanova, but neither are the Mountaineers the Hokies. West Fuckin’ By-God Virginia FTW.

ORSON (QUASI-RATIONAL): East Carolina–not Eastern as we usually insist on calling it for Junior Corso points–enjoyed the privilege of facing Sean Glennon at quarterback last week. This week, as our colleague pointed out, they will be facing Pat White, who is to Sean Glennon at qb Jennifer Lopez’s 2000-level back-bumper is Lara Flynn Boyle’s buttular concavity: an entirely different species capable of performing witchcraft, serving as an air-traffic controller without wearing a headset, and currently serving as Minister of Culture in several African nations. Couches, ignite!

J-Lo, Stuff Magazine, the frilly rumba panties: Pat White’s that kind of quality at qb.

Arkansas vs. UL-Monroe

HOLLY (IRRATIONAL): Bobby Petrino makes this face when his team is in trouble that looks like he’s trying to clench a hot lump of coal in his ass. We get to see that face a lot. But not tomorrow. Hawgs (sp?).

ORSON (QUASI-RATIONAL) Arkansas big, but ugly, in the kind of way someone can become filthy wealthy, garner massive success, and still purchase a PT Cruiser because “It’s campy.” No sir, it is not. It is a Geo Metro covered in extra plastic. We may have found our metaphor for this year’s Arkansas team, a big, drive blocking lummox of a team going through it’s first week of kung-fu class under a very unpleasant and demanding sensei. Pain training continues.

Miami (FL) at Florida

HOLLY (QUASI-RATIONAL): Gators over ‘Canes, again just for showing up to the stadium. Reformed MIA, you begin to bore me with your “suspensions” for “violating team rules.”

ORSON (IRRATIONAL BLIND HOMERISM): Florida, if only because Miami’s got 13 freshmen on the two-deep and nary as senior to be found. Still, we’ll believe they’re dead when flames go out and we see the bones. Shame has no date of expiry:

Stanford at Arizona St.

HOLLY (IRRATIONAL): Programming note: I’ll be pulling for Arizona State the rest of the season, if only to prevent any more shots of Rudy Carpenter in HD looking like the subject of a botched-kidney-operation reality show. (Fridays on FOX.)

ORSON (RATIONAL) Arizona State, since Stanford’s all blitz-wacky and Arizona State spent the better part of the offseason running screens and quick hitters to keep Rudy Carpenter from peeing his very favorite kind of urine, blood. Lyle Moevao was pressured into grievous mistakes by the Cardinal, but he also made some dunderheaded ones himself that Rudy Carpenter will not make under pressure. Remember: Rudy Carpenter doesn’t make too many mistakes, mostly because he spends the majority of his games lying on his back holding in the tears.

Texas at UTEP

HOLLY (IRRATIONAL): Aww, hey there, Colt! Sleep well? What’s that? You want to play like a quarterback this season? Good on ya. Hook ‘em.

ORSON (QUASI-RATIONAL): Texas by miles and miles and miles and miles. Unless gunfire from nearby Juarez wanders over and nips any of the Longhorns’ starters, we’re looking at one of the more lopsided, gutted, bombed-out and depleted matchups of the weekend. UTEP, who at one point claimed to have “Carson Palmer’s brother” playing qb, lost to Buffalo this past weekend. When you put both Buffalo and Texas on the Winnar bench, you truly have diversified the degrees of suck in your possession.

Really, don’t even tune into this one. You think you like to see people on fire, because it’s funny in movies and stuff. Then you really see it, and well…it’s funnier. We mean not at all. Yes.

Oregon @ Arizona (+ 12)

I can feel the lack of trust. It’s OK. This is why I’m going to get you back on your feet right now and make this as simple as possible. Arizona is terrible and their coach is Mike Stoops. Oregon is good, really good. Their coach is… well forget that. Oregon isn’t looking past the Cats this year either, since last year Arizona handed them their only loss of the season at Autzen in a humiliating 37-10 drubbing (Oregon was a 2 TD favorite). That’s not going to happen again. Oregon’s playing for a shot at a National Championship and Dennis Dixon is playing for a shot at the Heisman. Arizona is playing for the chance to save Mike Stoops’ job. I’m sure they can’t wait to play for that asshole for another year. This is your classic prison rape (ow!) game. Arizona will put up a fight early, realize it’s useless, and by the second half, they’ll be following the Ducks around holding onto their pocket like a good little punk. Nothing makes a Friday at the office/prison yard/massage parlor better than knowing you’re already up, so wash the taste of failure out of your mouth and put $100 on Oregon.

West Virginia @ Cincinnati (+ 6.5)

The Mountaineers are coming to town and they’re bringing Steve Slaton, the nation’s #3 rushing attack, and a shitload of gasoline with ‘em. They’ve outscored the Bearcats 80-24 over the last 2 seasons and their dominance will continue here. Slaton has rolled for 277 yards and six TD’s over those 2 games. I’m sure you saw West Virginia’s terrifying extended fumbling drills last week in the second half against Louisville, but have no fear, it was only a test. Sit back, relax, watch WFV dominate Cincinnati and be thankful your couch is spared.

Missouri @ Kansas State (+7)
Yes, please. Here’s what you have to realize with Kansas State: Bill Snyder isn’t walking through that door. Michael Bishop isn’t walking through that door. Darren Sproles isn’t walking through that door. Josh Freeman is, and he’s fat. I think I’d be remiss if I didn’t also point out that Bill Callahan & Co. dropped 73 on the Wildcats last week. This is not what you want to hear when Missouri’s on their way to town. The Tigers have scored 38 or more in all 9 of their wins. They also have the best QB in the Big 12 (sorry Kansas guy). This is one of those point spreads that makes my pants feel funny. I thought the line would be closer to 14. Don’t let the mascot fool you, the Tigers are tough this year. Take the Tigers to roll.

Oklahoma @ Texas Tech (+8)
I think the Dread Pirate Leach has been at sea too long. Being eccentric only gets you so far, eventually, you have to produce results. 8 wins a year is nice, but not enough for a guy like Leach. He’s ultimately failing here, he knows it, and he’s got one foot out the door. Oklahoma is just nasty enough to send you on your way with a dime store boot up your ass. You want numbers? Oklahoma is 5-1 against the spread in their last 6 against the Raiders. Did you know that Oklahoma scores 45 pts per game compared to the Double T’s 42.5? You don’t have to, that’s what I’m here for. I’m still not ready to buy heavily into the Sooners, but I am ready to sell everything I have in Texas Tech. Good luck at your next port, Cap.
Take Oklahoma to sail (sorry) past the Red Raiders.

Kentucky @ Georgia(-7.5)

Mark Richt’s been born again (how many times is this now?); this time as a decisive master villain with a taste for poor sportsmanship and a penchant for shooting jaywalkers. And I like it. Remember when Kentucky was the belle of the ball? Well now they’re the town pump, everyone’s taking a turn on them. Black Hat Richt is in line and he’s about to get freaky. Kentucky hasn’t won in Athens in 30 years. Knowshown Moreno has been averaging 160 yards and 2 TD’s per game over the last 4. His dominance on the ground has taken the pressure off of Matthew Stafford. Stafford isn’t the guy, but he is the kind of QB who can lead you to 10 wins and a New Year’s Day game. Put a week’s pay on Georgia.
[Rich Brooks thinks this pick is bullshit.--ed.]

Duke @ Notre Dame (-6)

This game is too corrosive for the college kids playing with their lunch money. This one’s for the hard core, nothing to lose, basement dwelling, dirtbag, degenerate army. This isn’t a pillow fight or a cripple fight. This game is like Helen Keller necromancing a corpse. And not the hot kind in their Sunday best with a carefully reconstructed face. No, Notre Dame is the bloated floater, coated in canal glaze and smelling of regret. There’s nothing romantic about it, this isn’t sexy time. Duke has a low self-esteem brought on by significant losses and they’ve turned to a cold body buddy only because of their desire for an unresisiting and unrejecting partner. They came to the right place. Charlie Chorizo has led the Irish into unchartered territory. Every 3 & out, every turnover, and every loss sets a new school record. This guy is a master at getting the least out of his players and the most out of his opponents. Take whatever Charlie Fried Chicken spends in a week on fast food and bet it on Duke with confidence.

The illegal practice of deliberately limiting the number of points scored by one’s team in an athletic contest, as in return for a payment from gamblers to ensure winnings.

This is exactly what Toledo running back Harvey “Scooter� McDougle has been charged with by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, according to the Detroit News. The News broke the story on Saturday. The basics, according to both the News and noted secondary sources:

–McDougle was given a car, cash, and other benefits in exchange for shaving points off certain Toledo games by Gary Manni, a man only identified as “Gary” in the first News report. He was to recruit other players, as well, including other football players and basketball players. (You know, like Amway does, but with the FBI taking a vested interest in your “contacts.” )

–In turn, McDougle offered at least one other player $10,000 to sit out a game.

Your team…for just $10,000 a game?

–Manni, labeled “a professional gambler” in a subsequent report, admits knowing McDougle, but says he had nothing to do with point-shaving.

The funniest two pieces of information come from that second article, a piece in the manfully-named Toledo Blade. (You know it’s a rough town when even the paper is named “the Blade.”)

One:

“Yes, I know him,� said Mr. Manni, 50, when reached by phone at King Cole Foods, a grocery store in Detroit.

Either Manni owns the grocery store, or you may take comfort that we live in a world where heavies still hang out by pay phones in cash-laundering business fronts like grocery stores.

Two:

…(Manni) doesn’t know why authorities were listening to his phone conversations with players.

Manni is an Iraqi immigrant who came to the United States 30 years ago–of course the FBI listening to his phone conversations. We’re pretty sure they’re listening to ours after we put Lawrence of Arabia and 24 on our Netflix queue a few weeks ago. Our conspiracy theory on this: the FBI was randomly tapping lines belonging to anyone who made calls into Iraq from the United States, heard some interesting and completely non-terror related stuff on Manni’s, and got a points-shaving case out of the Patriot Act. Score one for John Yoo!

We have theories. Important ones.

–Fanblogs speculates this could cast a wide net into a pool of former and current Toledo players, including former Rockets qb and current NFLer Bruce Gradkowski.

Our final note for the moment, before assessing points: Manni sounds like one of the stupidest gamblers we’ve ever, ever heard of if he truly decided to try to fix football games by contacting the fourth-string running back as his recruiter. If we were points-shaving, there’s two guys to bribe: the kicker and the quarterback. Running back is at least third on our list of guys who can directly affect the point total in a game. Plus the kicker’s got no pro money on the line to keep him honest. Manni’s scheme seems equal parts nefarious and harebrained–there’s simply too many moving parts to make an effective fix in football.

As heinous a crime as it is, it’s no murder, the only 5 point offense in the Fulmer Cup. It is in our estimation a weighty 4 pointer, rife with ill intentions, skullduggery, and shitbaggedness. But it’s no murder. For the moment, the Fulmer Cup score for Toledo stands at 4, though it could in theory get much, much worse before the FBI stops digging.

Greetings all.

All things considered, while this has been a thoroughly dissatisfying season for me, I suppose things should be put in perspective; after an uneven 6-11 start, I recovered to go on a 49-24 run–as good an extended run as I have ever had–before stumbling to a 17-28 (and counting) finish–as bad an extended run as I have ever had.

A wiser man than myself once said that the bottom line in this game is that you win some, you lose some, and you hope you win more than you lose. While for the better part of November I wondered if the first part of that adage was true, even in this, one of my more personally disappointing seasons, I have been able to accomplish this task; anyone using my selections, wagering with the traditional 10-11 vigorish, would show a profit for the season.

Profit! It’s what’s for dinner.

My two-year record stands at 156-124, a much more robust 55.7%; generally, a percentage above 55% is considered professional-level quality, and every season a 55% winning percentage is my stated goal. I will fall short of that number this season unless I am able to run the table with my final five selections, which given my current form is highly unlikely; hopefully this off-season I will learn some lessons and come back strong when next season starts.

As it stands (I am writing this Thursday night), my record for the year is 72-63, a winning percentage of 53.3%; please note that I still have wagers on South Carolina and Texas Tech still pending, in addition to those listed below. Hopefully I can close it out strong and build a little momentum for next season. Here are my final selections for the season:

COTTON BOWL, Dallas, TX

Nebraska (+1) v. Auburn

As I have said many times, I thought Auburn was overrated for much of the season. Even now, I am perplexed by their wins over LSU and Florida (although, both games were at home, they were outgained substantially by LSU and didn’t score an offensive TD against Florida, and one could argue they were fortunate to win either contest). Outside of those two games, and the opener against WSU, Auburn’s performances have been very uneven; ‘Bama gave them a victory with turnovers, and games against South Carolina and Ole Miss went down to the wire, and they were of course dominated at home by Arkansas and Georgia. Offensively, they have been very average; their running game has been very pedestrian, and while Nebraska is vulnerable against the pass, Auburn has only thrown for more than 200 yards this season against BCS opposition against Mississippi and Mississippi State. On the other side of the ball, Auburn has a good but not great D, and they have also shown vulnerability against the pass; the difference is that Nebraska HC Callahan will surely exploit this weakness. SEC opponents averaged 7.44 ypp against Auburn with an 8-6 ratio, but those numbers are a little deceptive, as they were only truly effective against Mississippi State’s non-existent passing game; in their other 7 SEC games, Auburn gave up 8.07 ypp with an 8-5 ratio. Nebraska’s passing game got better as the season progressed, although they struggled against OU’s strong pass D in the Big 12 Championship game with 3 interceptions. Even including that poor performance, for the season in Big 12 play Nebraska threw for 8.04 ypp with an 18-5 ratio. Nebraska’s running game is prolific if not efficient–they averaged 150 ypg and 4.13 ypc in Big 12 play–and they will likely outproduce Auburn on the ground as well, and be able to control the clock. Auburn will want to make amends for last year’s poor bowl performance, but Nebraska should have a big edge in the crowd and I think they will have too much for Auburn to overcome.

Callahan will have those “fucking rednecks” in line, according to Solon.

OUTBACK BOWL, Tampa, FL

Tennessee (-4) v. Penn State

Penn State has a legitimate D, but their O has severe limitations. Against quality defensive opposition–Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin–Penn State averaged 6 ppg and 212 ypg, and only managed 1 TD–on a 43-yard screen pass–in those three games. I am not sure that Tennessee has a D as good as any of those–they very well may have, however–but there is little doubt that Tennessee’s D is far superior to anyone else on the Penn State schedule. Tennessee’s running game has been uneven this season, although the presence of RB Coker has made a massive difference; with him, they are averaging 137 ypg and 4.41 ypc; without him, they are averaging 44 ypg and 1.87 ypc (albeit against considerably stronger opposition). Tennessee’s big advantage in this contest lies with the passing game; QB Ainge is averaging 8.75 ypp with a 19-8 ratio for the season. Penn State’s pass D has been pretty good this season, but they have dominated lesser passing games while struggling against better ones; to illustrate, ND, Minnesota, Michigan and Wisconsin averaged 7.85 ypp against them with a 7-0 ratio (PSU admittedly had a good game against Ohio St QB Smith, but that was as much a product of the weather conditions than anything else). I believe Tennessee’s passing game is at least as good as any of those, and I think it will make the difference here as the PSU O will not have much production against the stout Tennessee D.

SUGAR BOWL, New Orleans, LA

Louisiana State (-9.5) v. Notre Dame

In many ways, the story of Notre Dame encapsulates all that is great about college football; legendary coaches, legendary players, legendary games, all from a small school in the Midwest that remains independent despite playing in the geographical midst of the nation’s oldest, and arguably most storied, conference. Unfortunately, the romance and tradition surrounding the program has put recent editions in the odd position of having to punch well above their weight in the postseason. Much like last season, Notre Dame does not belong anywhere near a BCS bowl; and, due to their rich tradition, they once again must face a marquee opponent that is far superior rather than a more manageable BCS foe, such as Boise State or Wake Forest. Notre Dame’s O is one-dimensional; RB Walker provides little balance to QB Quinn. Unfortunately for the Irish, if LSU’s D is vulnerable anywhere, it is against the run (witness Arkansas’ performance against them); against the pass they are solid, giving up only 5.52 ypp with a 9-10 ratio against BCS opponents. And, ND’s offensive problems pale in comparison to their defensive problems; while they have been a suspect unit all year long against largely mediocre opposition, they now have to face a unit that is every bit the equal of the two teams that dominated them this season. QB Russell’s production has been remarkably consistent–between 196 and 269 yards in 11 of 12 games–and, incredibly efficient, averaging 9.08 ypp with a 26-7 ratio. ND has faced three decent passing attacks this season–Michigan, Purdue, and USC–who averaged 295 ypg and 9.21 ypp with an 8-3 ratio. It seems unlikely that ND will be able to keep the LSU passing game in check, and I look for a big win for the Tigers in this spot.

Roy Horn and Notre Dame will have something in common, according to Solon.

OTHER GAMES OF NOTE:

Michigan (+2) v. Southern California

I’m a little confused by the line movement on this game, which has shifted the favorite. Michigan’s D is almost certainly not as good as people thought it was earlier in the season–by which I mean in mid-November–but I suspect that facing the Ohio State offense will do that to a lot of legitimate defenses. USC brings a strong passing attack, but their running game is certainly limited. Even after their performance against Ohio State, I rate the Michigan rush D as the best in the nation and I think they will render the USC O one-dimensional. While the performance of the Michigan O in the OSU-Mich game was overshadowed by the performance of the Ohio State O, it was still impressive, as they gained 397 yards against a D that had given up a previous high of 343 yds this season. Most impressive was the performance of RB Hart, who had 23 carries for 142 yards. Hart is not going to dominate games, but he will always get yards and provide QB Henne with some balance. Henne, meanwhile, has really developed as a passer this season, averaging 7.66 ypp, nearly a yard higher than his previous best, while still maintaining his strong ratio (this season, 20-7). In an odd reversal (given that they are a Pac-10 team), USC has probably not faced an offense as capable as Michigan’s this season; Nebraska’s probably is now, but it was not when the Trojans played them. I think Michigan rates a slight edge in just about every aspect–slightly better running game, passing game, run D (I think USC might have a slightly stronger pass D)–and, given that I am getting points, I would lean toward Michigan in this one.

FIESTA BOWL, Glendale, AZ

Oklahoma (-7) v. Boise State

Boise is no doubt a legitimate team but they are probably the equivalent of a mid-level BCS conference team like Mizzou or Georgia. I am not sure how excited Oklahoma will be to be playing in this game, but the return of RB Peterson at least suggests an honest effort out of their most potent offensive weapon. Add to this the strong Oklahoma D, and I think Boise will struggle on both sides of the ball. Boise has faced very few strong Ds this season; against Oregon State, Wyoming, and Utah, Boise averaged 32 ppg and 350 ypg; of course, none of these teams have anywhere near Oklahoma’s talent level or playmaking ability. Boise’s biggest problems lie on the other side of the ball, where the challenges faced by Boise this season have been few and far between. Outside of Hawaii–who had clearly not hit their stride, and, who, in any event, scored 34 points and gained 476 yds at Boise–Oregon State’s suspect O rates as the best Boise has faced. Specifically, Boise has yet to face a legitimate rushing attack; the best on their schedule has probably been that of SJSU or Fresno State. Even without RB Peterson, Oklahoma’s running game is superior to those teams; with him, they are vastly superior. QB Thompson has had a very good season as well, and likely rates as the second best QB Boise has faced (to Hawaii QB Brennan); the bottom line is that I believe the Boise D to be untested and that will likely make the difference as the strong Oklahoma D will keep Boise in check enough for their O to make the difference in this one.

They’ll be no blue turf to save them in Glendale.

ORANGE BOWL, Miami, FL

Louisville (-9.5) v. Wake Forest

I was quite close to playing this game, but I decided to hold off; Wake has been my “bogey side” this season, as I have gone 0-4 when selecting their games. The Louisville O is incredibly potent, but the loss of RB Bush in week one has undoubtedly curtailed their production; as a result they are not likely to go off against strong defenses as they have in recent seasons (witness their O scoring 24 pts v. K State, 18 pts v. Rutgers, and 23 pts v. Cincinnati). Wake’s success is largely inexplicable this season, but their is little doubt that they have a strong D; they only gave up more than 20 pts on D twice this season, and opponents are averaging less than 14 ppg. Even with this, there’s little doubt that Louisville will produce something offensively–they’ve only been held under 20 points once in the last three seasons–and it will be incumbent upon Wake’s O to keep up. This is where Wake will run into trouble; Louisville does not have a great D, but they are serviceable, and Wake–which has only gained as many as 300 yards twice all season–will probably not be able to get the job done. I also think Wake will be satisfied with their season, whereas Louisville will feel they have something to prove. All in all, Louisville should get the job done, but 9.5 is a lot of points to give to a legitimate opponent and I think it might be too big an ask for the Cards.

NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME, Glendale, AZ

Ohio State (-7.5) v. Florida

I have gone back and forth on this game, and I have come to the conclusion that the Gators are up against it. In retrospect, the Gators probably have a better D than Michigan, but that assessment is primarily a product of Ohio State’s dominance against the Wolverines; 6 TDs, 3 punts, 3 TOs. Florida’s D has played well against good offenses this season–Tennessee scored 20 pts, South Carolina scored 16 pts, and LSU scored 10 pts–but none of those teams present the challenge that Ohio State does; OSU features better players at every unit–QB, RB, WR, and OL–than their SEC counterparts. So long as OSU’s execution does not suffer too much from the long layoff–keep in mind that the Michigan game was played on Nov. 18–they will almost certainly fare better in terms of production than any opponent the Florida D has faced this season. No doubt Florida will do better than Michigan did against OSU’s O, but even that will not likely be enough, given their limitations on O. Ohio State’s D is, to some extent, vulnerable against the run, but that isn’t Florida’s strength; in fact, Florida’s running game at this point consists of direct snaps to WR Harvin and keepers by QB Tebow; primary RB Wynn seems to be an afterthought. Florida’s passing attack is fair, but Ohio St has defended the pass well this season–only Michigan’s superior passing attack had sustained success against them–and it is unlikely that Florida’s QBs will be able to do enough to keep up with the Ohio State O.

Of course, there’s always the chance that Ohio State hasn’t really been tested; all they’ve done this season is beat Texas (not looking overly impressive, at this point–and, in any event, it was QB McCoy’s second game) and Michigan–who themselves had only beaten an overrated ND team and an otherwise untested Wisconsin team. What happened to their O when they played a great Penn State D? How about against a less great (but still good) Illinois D? If Ohio State had needed to test their mettle at Auburn, at Tennessee, and at home to LSU, would they still be undefeated? I’m not sure. Usually, it doesn’t work like this, but it’s certainly possible that the Big 10 was so weak this season that both Ohio State and Michigan (as well as Wisconsin) are fabulously overrated (by way of comparison, look at the Big 8 in 1987), and they’ll be ill-equipped to deal with a more battle-hardened Florida team. A good barometer might be Michigan’s performance in the Rose Bowl; I think if Michigan does not hold their own, Ohio State might be in trouble (Wisconsin is a bit of an anomaly, I don’t think their performance will tell us much about Ohio State). In the end, I think it’s best to pass and hope for a good game.

Florida/Ohio State: Happy Fun Ball untouchable.

A hearty thanks to all commenters for all of your input this season; best of luck to all of you with your wagers.

Wassup bitchez! Subcommandante Wayne comin’ atcha from the O-H-I-Oh Oh Oh. Orson–total dick I can type that ’cause it’s my site today hahahahahha!!!–told me to do a bowl preview. I told him to suck it, ’cause the Subcommandante only takes orders from three men: the Commandante Jim Tressel, Commandante Emeritus (that means “dead” in Greek) Woody Hayes, and Lemmy. So again, let’s review the lesson here…oh yeah: suck it, and suck it. Your homework will be to learn this lesson and learn it well. OSU RULZ!!!

Wayne reminds you: OSU rulz.

Anyway, the Subcommandante’s giving his badass Druid a little breather after a ripping WoW session to give you a bowl preview. ‘Cause again: the Subcommandante knows no master save the Buckeye Lords. And Lemmy.

Name: The Pioneer Pure VisionLas Vegas

Motto: “Whores!” Dude, you can totally get a whore in Las Vegas. So that’s the motto: “Las Vegas Bowl: You need whores, and we’ve got ‘em.”

I’d move there if I had the money. And IF OHIO DIDN’T OWN WITH STEADINESS!!!

Intrusive Corporate Sponsor: The Subcommandante doesn’t see a sponsor here, since I’m thinking the Pioneer Pure Vision thing must be some tribute to the pioneer spirit or something, and how pure it all was when they stopped in the desert a thousand years ago and said: “We need a place for whores and gambling, and this looks perfect.” Whores, man. Ass for cash with class. Again, if not for the Grand Am, the Buckeyes, and all the tasty sweatpant candy rolling around the bars here, man, I’d be rolling the bones in Vegas and livin’ pimpin’ like it was Yahtzee.

Respect must be paid here, though. That’s the spirit that built America, people. Asskickers looking for a place to put their whore corps and just LFMing all over the place in search of loot.

Founded thousands of years ago, man. And Wayne’s feeling the history.

Tradition Rating: Since Las Vegas was founded a thousand years ago, this must be off the scale. Back then they played football wearing armor. That’s why they never passed, because they couldn’t see the ball through the little slit they had in the front. They also let live tigers and shit loose on the field. Those guys were soooo hrd. I mean, I’m tough, but I’m not tough like Hamish’s dad in Braveheart.

MANLAW!!! It’s totally safe to cry at that part of Braveheart. I do because that’s how the Subcommandante’s going out: in the arms of my badass son who’s totally crying all over me after someone speared me in the guts during combat. It beats dying like my uncle Rick, who bitched out, ran off on his wife, and died in a truck fire in Mexico. Though the truck fire bit could be tuff if the police had cornered you or something, instead of you just falling asleep drunk on pills and tequila with lit joint in your hand.

MANLAW!!! Rick was an asshole.

Setup: Mountain West versus Pac-10. Both of these teams are not in the Big Ten, and therefore have no balls. MANLAW!!! Mountain West and Pac-10 have no balls. APPROVED!!!

Location. Vegas, baby. Sometimes people type that after Vegas: Vegas, baby. Did you know they have a roller coaster on top of a hotel there? And free liquor? You could hit the town with a fat hundred rolled up in a sweatsock at eight, make a few thousand at the blackjack table by ten, get loaded on all the free booze–free booze!!!!111—and then be riding like an ashy to classy cash king on the roller coaster drunk on top of the world. With a whore.

Seriously, dude. I’m not moving, or anything, but as soon as I get the timing belt replaced on the Grand Am, the Subcommandante’s redlining his ass to Vegas…baby. See? I’m already talking like local, man.

Matchup quality: Orson gave me some beta here: Brady Leaf is the new starting qb for Oregon, John Beck’s the BYU quarterback and throwing huge numbers blah blah blah blah blah…Dude, seriously: hired women. I could pay them to just sit and tell me how awesome I am all day, or talk about football, or even walk around with me and say things when strangers passed by like, “Subcommandante, doesn’t your back hurt from carrying such a big dick around all the time,” or “Geez, Wayne, I can’t walk because I keep tripping over your dick,” or “Wayne, tell me that delightful story about the time someone tried to chop a tree down in your yard, but it turned out to be your penis, and you totally kicked their ass with stealthy but righteous ninja force!”

Forget football, people. Wayne’s getting his visionquest on, and all you little people can think about is football. OSU’s not even playing here, and there’s whores on the docket. Jesus.

Orson sez BYU in a scorefest. I’m saying Wayne in a whorefest, and that’s gospel, yo.

What to watch for: Me, baby, in Vegas, baby, with eight ladies wearing “Waynes’ Buckthighs’ Army” shirts on the fifty. I’ve got some stock my grandfather gave me to sell–Braniff or something, I dunno, but but it’s gotta be worth hundreds now or something. Me and the Grand Am are heading out west to go questing, baby. (Again, I’m so local it’s not funny.) The Subcommandante’s got to show Vegas something special. Playing tonight in a hotel room in Las Vegas? The sexiest show on earth: Fountains of Wayne, baby.

The Bowl season is upon us, which presents a unique challenge for the bettor. Some factors to consider:

(1) Motivation–which teams care about the games they are about to play, and which teams have already achieved their goals for the season?

(2) Departing coaches–are teams fired up to win one last game for their beloved coach, or do they give less effort because no matter how strong their performance they cannot save their coach’s job?

(3) New coaches–how quickly can teams adapt to wrinkles in the offensive or defensive gameplanning?

As for myself, for the most part I try to make my initial selections as if the situational factors did not exist, and then, when making my final selections, I add slightly more weight to the situational factors than I would during the regular season. By and large, I try to find the teams that are strong fundamental plays and also have favorable situational factors. Given that I majored in theology and not psychology this is easier said than done.

Remember, being a theology major does not make you a psychologist. It does qualify you for some jobs, though.

For the season, I currently sit at 71-61, a winning percentage of just under 54%–certainly a disappointing season by my own standards, but still more than good enough to make a straight bettor a profit for the season. Here are the bowl selections for the games to be played in calendar year 2006:

12/19: POINSETTIA BOWL, San Diego, CA

Texas Christian (-12) v. Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois’ presence in this game is attributable, largely, to RB Wolfe, who has had an amazing career and had an astonishing first half of the season. Unfortunately, he cooled off as the season wore on, and while he had a bit of a resurgence late at the end of the season after recovering from nagging injuries to his hamstring and shoulder (367 yds in the last two games), I still think he will struggle against a very strong TCU rush D that has only given up 64 ypg and 2.42 ypc on the ground this season. NIU’s passing game should provide little relief; QB Horvath is apparently out and his replacement Nicholson is markedly less efficient, and in any event against the better pass Ds they have faced this season–OSU, Ohio, WMU, and Iowa–NIU is only averaging 5.82 ypp with a 4-6 ratio. There is little doubt that TCU’s pass D–which has only given up as many as 7 ypp this season to BYU and New Mexico–is in this class. Previously noted in this space has been the late-season emergence of the TCU O with the decision to open up the offense, which has coincided with a large increase in production; in their last three games, TCU has thrown for 276 ypg and 9.73 ypp with a 7-0 ratio. NIU’s pass D is among the worst in the nation–the only teams they have held under 200 yds passing this season are Toledo and EMU, both among the 10 worst passing attacks in the nation. Even though OSU is the only especially strong passing game NIU has faced–certainly they are the only team NIU has faced that has a better passing game than TCU does–they are still giving up 249 ypg and 7.69 ypp with a 20-7 ratio. TCU’s running game is also legitimate–gaining 212 ypg over the last half of the season–and they should have little trouble moving the ball on the ground as well against a rather ordinary NIU run D. TCU HC Patterson has his eye on next season, and knows that a win in this game will put his team in a strong position in the 2007 preseason rankings, so he will want to impress in this spot.

Garrett Wolfe won’t be doing this much, according to Solon.

12/22: NEW ORLEANS BOWL, New Orleans, LA

Rice (-4) v. Troy

There is a doubt regarding the availability of Rice QB Clement–undoubtedly superior to his backup Armstrong–for this contest, but I cannot imagine a scenario under which either Rice QB cannot get the job done with the line this short. Troy was able to top the Sun Belt this season, but in so doing they only averaged 25 ppg and 346 ypg; Rice’s D is a joke, but they are certainly not too much worse than the average Sun Belt D. And, as of late, the Rice D has been playing better; in their last two games, they held ECU and SMU to an average of 22 ppg and 289 ypg (their first 6 ConfUSA opponents averaged 32 ppg and 446 ypg). Given that first-year Rice HC Graham was the former defensive coordinator at Tulsa, and that the Rice D was unquestionably among the worst in the nation at the season’s start, there is little doubt the Rice D had nowhere to go but up and at long last they appear to be doing just that. Rice’s O, on the other hand, has been strong for most of the season; in ConfUSA play, only ECU held them under 24 points, and they averaged 30 ppg, and only Houston (in the opener), Tulsa, and SMU were able to hold them under 400 yards. Troy’s D played well in Sun Belt play, but none of those opponents have an O nearly as strong as Rice’s. Troy made a splash on the national scene when holding FSU to 24 points in the second week of the season, but while FSU was a Top 10 team at the time, in retrospect that performance was not overly impressive. The next week GT scored 35 on Troy, and the two ACC teams–both of whom have very limited offenses–averaged 436 ypg on the Troy D, suggesting that when they step up in class they will struggle. To be fair, FSU rolled Rice early in the season, but the matchup problems FSU presented to Rice, i.e., a weak O and a strong D, is the worst possible matchup for Rice; Troy does not have the same strengths, and therefore that result is largely irrelevant. There is little doubt that each of these teams stepped it up in the second half of the season, but Rice did so against better opposition, and I think that will be the difference here.

12/28: HOLIDAY BOWL, San Diego, CA

Texas A&M (+5) v. California

I am a big fan of Jeff Tedford, so much so that in the two years I have written this column I have never officially selected against Cal, and have played them many times. I think this is a bad matchup for them, though; not only is Cal likely to be disappointed–if they had managed to beat Arizona, they would be playing in the Rose Bowl for the first time in 48 years–but A&M should be excited at the prospect of being the #3 team in the Big 12 after finishing 5-6 last season. I was high on Cal for much of the season, but a closer look at what they have accomplished suggests that their season may not be as good as it appeared at first blush; their two three most impressive wins–against ‘Zona State, Oregon State, and Oregon–happened before October 7th, and since then their results have been very pedestrian. A&M, on the other hand, has been more impressive than their record, as they are actually quite close to being undefeated; Texas Tech and Nebraska each scored TDs with less than 30 seconds to go to defeat the Aggies, and HC Franchione’s decision to twice kick FGs against OU in the last 10 minutes instead of going for a TD resulted in a 1-point loss to the Sooners. Cal’s O was prolific at the season’s start–after the Tennessee game–but QB Longshore has cooled off, and he has been much more average as of late; 187 ypg and 5.84 ypp with a 3-5 ratio. Admittedly, all of those pass Ds are better than A&M’s, but I think it is unlikely that Longshore will suddenly produce as he was in September. Cal has a good running game, but A&M has been decent against the run this season, only being run on by the strong running games of Oklahoma and Oklahoma State; Cal’s running game only averaged 140 ypg in Pac 10 play and it is unlikely they will hit that number. On the other side of the ball, A&M’s running game has been very impressive, running for 214 ypg and 5.10 ypc in Big 12 play; they are going up against a Cal run D that has been exploitable this season, giving up 198 yds to Tenn, 237 yds to ‘Zona St, 163 yds to Washington, and 187 yds to UCLA. A&M QB McGee has been more than serviceable this season, averaging 7.29 ypp with a 10-2 ratio. Cal’s pass D has been good this season, but this is primarily the product of 19 interceptions; it is unlikely that McGee will contribute too much to that number. All things considered, I would rate the teams as rough equivalents–A&M should do slightly better on the ground, and Cal should do slightly better through the air–and I think A&M stands a good chance to win this one outright.

Dennis Franchione should break a smile in his bowl game.

12/29: LIBERTY BOWL, Memphis, TN

South Carolina (-6.5) v. Houston

I am a little worried about South Carolina’s mindset; after playing good teams tough all season long, they finally broke through with a win against Clemson last time out, and it is possible that they will consider their season’s goals achieved. I do not doubt that if they come to play, their offense will have their way with the Houston D; South Carolina has played in fits and starts against quality opposition–most notably against Clemson, where they controlled the game despite the 31-28 scoreline–but in each of their losses they were playing defenses far superior to the unit that will be fielded by Houston. Houston’s D has been uneven all season, mixing good and bad performances, but outside of Oklahoma State–who although they only scored 25 pts, gained 445 yards and averaged an amazing 9.27 ypp against the Cougars–this will be the best offense they have faced, and SCar WRs Rice and McKinley are as good as any WR faced by Houston this season (with the possible exception of Rice WR Dillard and Okla St WR Bowman–who combined for 11 catches, 200 yards and 2 TDs, despite it being Dillard’s first game in a new offense), and I expect the SCar passing game to have serious production. Even with this, SCar has an even bigger advantage running the ball; teams with halfway-legitimate RBs have steamrolled Houston on the ground–Okla State had 162 yds (on only 26 carries), Miami (Fla) had 218 yds, La-Lafayette had 259 yds, and Central Florida had 248 yds. South Carolina’s RBs are very strong; my only concern is that SOS tends not to use them enough, although that concern is alleviated somewhat by his use of them to great effect against Clemson, where their RBs had 175 yds rushing on 28 carries. Houston’s O is no joke, and they will score some points; Miami is the only team to hold Houston under 20 points this season, and they averaged 32 ppg this season. South Carolina has been vulnerable against the run this season, but the RBs that have done the most damage are among the nation’s elite; specifically, Clem RB Spiller and Ark RB McFadden–and, it’s worth noting that while Spiller and McFadden combined for 374 yds on 35 carries, in those same games RBs Davis and Jones only had 72 yds on 32 carries. Houston RBs Battle and Aldridge are very good backs, but I would not put either in the class of Spiller or McFadden. I am also a big fan of Houston QB Kolb, and he has had a great season; certainly, he’ll produce, but the SCarolina D has been facing his equivalent for much of the season and they will be well-equipped to deal with the Houston passing attack. I am hoping that SCarolina learns their lesson from last season and comes to play for 60 minutes; if they do that, I believe the South Carolina offense will be the story of this game.

12/29: INSIGHT BOWL, Tempe, AZ

Texas Tech (-7) v. Minnesota

I believe that the bottom 8 of the Big 10 this season is as bad as the bottom part of any conference in recent memory. As a result, I think there are some soft bowl teams from that conference that achieved their .500-or-better status as a result of each game having to have a winner; while I think Penn State is a fair squad with a legitimate D, I would put Purdue, Minnesota, and Iowa in this class. Purdue and Iowa catch breaks with their bowl matchups–Purdue’s opponent lacks quality, while Iowa’s lacks motivation–but this matchup does Minnesota no favors. Minnesota’s resume is light–a home win over Iowa is their only win of note–and every team they have played that has a legitimate O has torn them up–Cal scored 42, Michigan scored 28 (and gained over 500 yds), Wisconsin scored 48, and Ohio State scored 44. Their pass D, in particular, is poor; BCS opponents have averaged 285 ypg and 8.60 ypp with a 22-10 ratio. TT will no doubt feel the loss of WR Hicks–a likely academic casualty–who had a strong game against Texas, but I am not sure how much difference it will make against a team that is so poor against the pass. Minnesota’s O appears to have gotten it together lately, but I think the slate of opposition (Indiana, Michigan State, Iowa) might have as much to do with that as anything else. Minnesota does not have nearly as strong a running game as they have had in season’s past; while they are still serviceable, they are not overly prolific, having yet to go for over 200 yards against a BCS team, and only hitting as many as 120 yds rushing 3 times this season. Texas Tech’s run D is average, but they have faced some pretty strong running games and I believe they will hold their own against the Gophers. Minn QB Cupito is the strength of the Minn O; he is averaging 235 ypg and 7.52 ypp with a 14-8 ratio against BCS opponents. These are not bad numbers, but he will be without the man who is arguably his best weapon–All-American TE Spaeth–who is out with a separated shoulder. Additionally, the Texas Tech pass D is strong–the only QB that has had an especially good game against them this season was Oklahoma QB Thompson–and, for the season, they have only given up 187 ypg and 6.78 ypp with a 12-8 ratio in conference play, while only facing two poor QBs (Colorado’s Jackson, and Baylor’s backup QB Szymanski). Much like the Liberty Bowl, I think the underdog will score some points, but I expect the favorite to go off offensively and I do not expect the large pointspread to matter.

Mike Leach in a bowl game? Must-see-tv, me laddies. Yarr.

Greetings all.

First off, I would like to thank my hosts last week at the USC-Notre Dame game, the short-lived and oft-drunk but always entertaining blogger CollegeFootballPundit, and Ryan Abraham of USCFootball.com. A spectacular setup with 4 televisions and a satellite, so I missed very little of the action from around the nation; they also had some serious eats courtesy of the legendary Dan-O. So many of the elements were there that I almost thought I was at a Georgia tailgate–until I looked around and saw that it was a pickle party. Step it up, lads–bloody hell, it’s USC, import some of those song-girls!

Catherine Bell’s in LA, right? She likes beer, right? Give her a call.

I also chatted up HP and CFR, with whom I was able to have some discussion about the nature of College Football. A few more hours and we’d have figured it all out. It’s always good to talk to other obsessives.

I stopped the bleeding a little bit last week with a 5-5 record, leaving me at 14-25 for the month of November–36%–my worst record for any single month I can remember. Fortunately I have decided to pass on the MAC Championship, and hopefully I can step it up for December and January and finish up strong.

My record sits at 69-60 for the season, a winning percentage of 53%. Not too many options this week, but there are a few. Here are this week’s selections:

SATURDAY:

WEST VIRGINIA (-9) v. Rutgers

West Virginia laid a serious egg last week on O, the first time since QB White became the full-time starter that they did not go for at least 27 points. I cannot help but think that game was an aberration and they will get it together for this contest, which they have obviously been focused on for two weeks. WVU struggles offensively when teams can take away the run–it happened earlier this season against ECU, and then again last week against USF–QB White seems to play best from a position of strength, incredibly efficient when his team is balanced but struggling when he is the focus of the O. Despite this, as good as the Rutgers run D has been, I do not think they will do well against the WVU running game. Good running games faced by this Rutgers D are few and far between, but UConn RB Brown did the business against them, going for 199 yards in a game that UConn very well could have won. Rutgers has done well against the other good running games they have faced–Louisville and Illinois, and I suppose Navy (which lost their starting QB in the 1st quarter)–but none of those teams brings to the table what WVU does. As mentioned previously, ECU did well against WVU, and they responded the next week by rushing for 289 yds against a good Miss State D, and then following that up with 443 yds against Syracuse the following week. So, I don’t think USF has sussed them out–I think that WVU just had an off-day, and they will regroup. The big edge in this game, though, lies on the other side of the ball, where Rutgers’ strong running game will face its biggest test to date; WVU has given up an average of 80 ypg and 2.58 ypc this season, and only Marshall and Louisville have been the least bit effective against them this season (please note that Marshall gained most of their yards after the game was decided, and Louisville only managed 107 yards on 30 carries). Against the 6 common Big East opponents, WVU’s run D actually did better than the highly-touted Rutgers run D–WVU gave up 71 ypg and 2.31 ypc, while Rutgers gave up 112 ypg and 3.24 ypc. WVU is vulnerable through the air; their last 4 opponents have thrown for an average of 321 ypg and 9.58 ypp–but Rutgers QB Teel is far too poor to take advantage, averaging 6.44 ypp with an 8-12 ratio against a very poor slate of opponents. To be honest, I will celebrate every time he throws the ball, because (1) 1 out of every 19 balls he’s thrown this season is picked off, and that is going up against much less athletic secondaries than this one, and (2) every time he throws, it means Rutgers is not using their much stronger running game.

With two fast-break run games, you should see this a lot during the Rutgers/WVU game.

NEW MEXICO STATE (-11.5) v. Louisiana Tech

Louisiana Tech played a fine game last week, although the final score was a little deceptive; I think this week they are up against it and I am counting on them to capitulate. New Mexico State has gotten it together lately; after being rolled by Boise, Hawaii, and Nevada in successive weeks, they have outgained every opponent and they were competitive against slightly superior competition before rolling inferior USU last week. I rate LT as among the worst teams in the WAC; certainly their D is among the worst, if not the worst, in the entire nation. Against the pass–really, the only thing operative here, given the nature of the NMSU O–LT has given up 246 ypg and 9.36 ypp with a 15-6 ratio. Even without the Hawaii game, they have given up 203 ypg and 8.69 ypp with a 10-5 ratio against a rather average set of QBs–and, truth be told, the WAC offense that is most comparable to NMSU’s is Hawaii’s, who went 30-44 for 506 yds against LT. LT’s O is not good–despite scoring 27 points last week, they only gained 355 yards, and that is about as good as they have done all season. The NMSU D has stepped it up lately; since the Nevada loss, they are giving up only 318 ypg. NMSU is, relatively speaking, pretty good against the run; while they are vulnerable against the pass, LT’s passing game is rather poor and it is unlikely that they will be able to take too much advantage. The only particularly effective game LT has had throwing the ball in WAC play this season was against the poor USU pass D, where they went 13-18 for 226 with a 4-0 ratio; outside of this contest, they are averaging 177 ypg and 5.57 ypp with a 3-11 ratio. NMSU’s pass D is poor but they are not bad enough to get torched like USU did; during their recent run of good play they have held opponents to 134 ypg and 6.08 ypp with a 4-1 ratio. Prior to this, they even held Nevada to 230 yards passing and picked off the Wolfpack on 3 occasions. One concern is that NMSU QB Holbrook suffered a concussion last week; the offense stalled without him last week, but he is apparently set to play and provided he does that should make the difference.

TEXAS CHRISTIAN (-17) v. Air Force

I was stunned to see this line come out at what it did (TCU -14.5); now that I check back in later in the week it seems a little more reasonable, but not enough for it to matter. TCU is on a great roll, coinciding with the decision by HC Patterson to open up the O; against SDSU and CSU, TCU has had season-high offensive outputs, averaging 615 yards and going over 600 yards in each game. Certainly SDSU and CSU do not have the best defenses, but I would rate either of them as the equal of AFA’s, which has been pretty uneven all season and gave up an amazing 555 yards to a UNLV D that has struggled all season; to illustrate, UNLV QB Hinds threw for 351 yards (on 34 passes), whereas his previous high yardage total this season had been 232 yards against Utah. Every halfway decent QB has torn up the AFA D; Tennessee, Col State, BYU, and ND have averaged 270 ypg and 10.59 ypp with a 12-3 ratio, and none of those teams have anywhere near the running game that TCU does. Even with this, TCU’s matchup on D may even be stronger than their matchup on O; AFA is primarily a running team, and TCU’s run D is a brick wall. TCU has only given up more than 100 yards rushing to Utah this season; MWC opponents are averaging 66 ypg and 2.45 ypc. AFA’s running game seems to have dropped off as the season has progressed; after averaging 264 ypg rushing and 67 ypg passing through the Army game, in the last three games they have averaged 173 ypg rushing and 211 ypg passing. Even if they continue this emphasis on the passing game, TCU will be better equipped than most MWC teams to deal with it; only BYU had a particularly good game throwing the ball against TCU, and all opponents have only managed 187 and 5.74 ypp with an 8-12 ratio against them, and please note that these numbers include games against Baylor and Texas Tech. I am always a little weary of playing teams just after they have accepted a bowl bid, but the gap in this one is too large and I think TCU will cover regardless.

OTHER GAMES OF NOTE:

Wake Forest (+2.5) v. Georgia Tech

Not too much statistical analysis, since it seems useless when you are dealing with a Wake team that incomprehensibly keeps winning. So just a couple of bits: first, outside of VT, GT’s division of the ACC is downright horrible; say what you will about the FSU this season, but while FSU is arguably the worst team in their division, and they have almost certainly outperformed Miami, who is a clear 3rd best team in theirs; even if one doesn’t accept this, UVa, UNC, and Duke are undoubtedly the worst teams in the conference and GT benefited from playing in the same division as all of them. Second: mentally, Wake is sky-high, fresh off a winner-take-all game against Md, while GT has just lost a gut-wrenching game to their biggest rival. And the bottom line? Wake’s D is as good as GT’s, their running games are comparable, and, despite starting a redshirt Freshman as opposed to a 4-year starter, Wake’s QB is far less likely to make mistakes. And HC Grobe is a damn genius who will get the job done here.

SEC CHAMPIONSHIP; Atlanta, GA

Arkansas (+3) v. Florida

I have, for the most part, given up on trying to understand how Arkansas wins games, and just accepted that they do. Of course, their passing game is useless but I am not sure it matters too much; they have been held under 100 yards passing more than they have gone over 200 yards passing but they still sit at 10-2 for the season. Florida has a great D, but good running games they have faced are few and far between; the only particularly strong running games they have faced were those of LSU, Auburn, Vandy, and South Carolina, and all of those had reasonable success; an average of 110 ypg and 3.88 ypc. Those are not strong numbers for opponents but Arkansas presents a stronger challenge than any, and given the limitations of the Florida offense it is likely that even limited success will prove decisive. One big problem for the Florida O is that not only do they struggle offensively in the red zone, they lack a kicker that salvages points during unsuccessful trips to that area. And, given the way the Arkansas D has been playing as of late it is likely that Florida will need to make the most of their red-zone opportunities; no SEC opponent has gone for 400 yards against Arkansas, and opponents are only averaging 311 ypg. All things considered, it should be a hard-fought contest with points at a premium, and since Arkansas has the player most likely to make plays (RB McFadden) and Florida’s kicking game problems, I’ll lean toward Arkansas and the points.

BIG 12 CHAMPIONSHIP; Kansas City, MO

Nebraska (+3) v. Oklahoma

While my official selections are three heavy favorites, in the title games I lean toward all the ‘dogs. Oklahoma’s D has been playing great of late, but they did show some weakness last week against OSU, who played much of the game with their backup QB after super QB Reid suffered an injury. Nebraska is one of the few teams in the Big 12 that has the requisite balance to keep the OU D from playing at their best, as OSU did last week; only Texas shut down their running game, and they have thrown for 243 ypg in conference play. Nebraska’s D is vulnerable against the pass, but fairly strong against the run; fortunately for them, Stoops has shown a reluctance to let QB Thompson air it out, even though he has had a pretty good season. Even after the injury to RB Peterson, OU is running the ball 44 times a game and only throwing it 20 times a game. I think OU is probably the better team here but the matchup favors the ‘Huskers; I also expect them to have stronger fan support, and that should make the difference.

It’s Rodriguez by triangulation, which means you prove it’s him more by saying why it’s not going to be everyone else. The rationale, laid out in just as shaky a fashion as everyone else’s:

Hey! There’s a limb! Let’s walk out on it.

1. Spurrier said he’s not taking the job. Therefore, he’s not taking the job. He’s only left one job abruptly, and is generally a pretty ethical and fair guy. (And when boy tyrant Daniel Snyder is that guy, you’re looking for any excuse to gnaw your arm off, slip the million dollar chains, and skedaddle–which Spurrier did.) It’s a matter of public record, and he’d be caught in a lie, which doesn’t jibe with his past track record.

2. Saban’s not a failure as a head coach. His team is marginally in the playoff hunt, he’s being paid five jillion dollars a year–which Alabama could not match without scandalous spending–and Saban won’t leave until he’s fired. And don’t proffer the “college is easier and the pros are burning him out” argument; Saban’s happiest when he’s drinking a glass of his assistants’ tears in a four a.m. film breakdown session before grabbing a catnap and then reducing 300 lb. men to more tears.

3. Paul Johnson has a lingering steroid issue, which will keep him off Alabama’s list. (Though a wag would suggest that a faint whiff of scandal would attract Bama boosters.)

4. Jim Grobe is avowedely not interested, and would in truth have lifetime job security at Wake. Plus: he’s approaching geezerhood, something which might cloud ten-year contract negotiations. Alabama’s looking for stability, as evidenced by their clinging to the worst NFL offensive coordinator we’ve ever seen for four years.

5. Rodriguez has something like a million dollar buyout. He’s never going to have a higher stock than he has right now, barring an undefeated season in the near future, and that’s fool’s betting.
He’s young, he’s in a smallish market, and has succeeded at each stop he’s made in the Takeshi’s Castle obstacle course of a coaching career. The money he makes as one of the most ill-paid coaches in the Big East would be at least doubled by Alabama, a financial deal he may not be able to refuse. The only rumored sticking point in negotiations is keeping Joe Kines as DC, and he may be headed to Texas, anyway.

He has not disavowed the job, either: he’s said that Alabama has not contacted him, which may be superficially true. (Then again, a lawyer or the search agency or a booster may have, which is legalistically different, right?)

He’s the only public candidate whose all thumbs up in the resume department who has not publically said that he isn’t leaving his current job. Therefore: Rodriguez announces on Sunday after the Rutgers game and becomes the next coach at Alabama.

QEDMF! We’re sure this will look great when Alabama announces the hiring of John L. Smith as their new head coach after everyone else bugs out, thus setting the stage for mass suicides by the Crimson Tide faithful as they slap themselves to death.