Mistakes were made. Maybe you lost some cash, or the use of your left leg, or the privilege of your girlfriend’s vagina, but hey, that’s why they call it gambling. Now quit your crying and hobble over here; we’re getting right back in the game. As any good degenerate knows, it’s only when you’re down that you get a taste of the life. They also know that when you’re down you bet more money, on more games, in order to get well. It’s like makeup sex, only better, because it lasts all weekend and you can do it with other dudes. You have my personal guarantee that these picks are (probably) impregnable.

Oregon @ Arizona (+ 12)

I can feel the lack of trust. It’s OK. This is why I’m going to get you back on your feet right now and make this as simple as possible. Arizona is terrible and their coach is Mike Stoops. Oregon is good, really good. Their coach is… well forget that. Oregon isn’t looking past the Cats this year either, since last year Arizona handed them their only loss of the season at Autzen in a humiliating 37-10 drubbing (Oregon was a 2 TD favorite). That’s not going to happen again. Oregon’s playing for a shot at a National Championship and Dennis Dixon is playing for a shot at the Heisman. Arizona is playing for the chance to save Mike Stoops’ job. I’m sure they can’t wait to play for that asshole for another year. This is your classic prison rape (ow!) game. Arizona will put up a fight early, realize it’s useless, and by the second half, they’ll be following the Ducks around holding onto their pocket like a good little punk. Nothing makes a Friday at the office/prison yard/massage parlor better than knowing you’re already up, so wash the taste of failure out of your mouth and put $100 on Oregon.

West Virginia @ Cincinnati (+ 6.5)

The Mountaineers are coming to town and they’re bringing Steve Slaton, the nation’s #3 rushing attack, and a shitload of gasoline with ‘em. They’ve outscored the Bearcats 80-24 over the last 2 seasons and their dominance will continue here. Slaton has rolled for 277 yards and six TD’s over those 2 games. I’m sure you saw West Virginia’s terrifying extended fumbling drills last week in the second half against Louisville, but have no fear, it was only a test. Sit back, relax, watch WFV dominate Cincinnati and be thankful your couch is spared.

Missouri @ Kansas State (+7)
Yes, please. Here’s what you have to realize with Kansas State: Bill Snyder isn’t walking through that door. Michael Bishop isn’t walking through that door. Darren Sproles isn’t walking through that door. Josh Freeman is, and he’s fat. (more…)

Points-shaving. First, a definition:

The illegal practice of deliberately limiting the number of points scored by one’s team in an athletic contest, as in return for a payment from gamblers to ensure winnings.

This is exactly what Toledo running back Harvey “Scooter” McDougle has been charged with by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, according to the Detroit News. The News broke the story on Saturday. The basics, according to both the News and noted secondary sources:

–McDougle was given a car, cash, and other benefits in exchange for shaving points off certain Toledo games by Gary Manni, a man only identified as “Gary” in the first News report. He was to recruit other players, as well, including other football players and basketball players. (You know, like Amway does, but with the FBI taking a vested interest in your “contacts.” )

–In turn, McDougle offered at least one other player $10,000 to sit out a game.

Your team…for just $10,000 a game?

–Manni, labeled “a professional gambler” in a subsequent report, admits knowing McDougle, but says he had nothing to do with point-shaving.

The funniest two pieces of information come from that second article, a piece in the manfully-named Toledo Blade. (You know it’s a rough town when even the paper is named “the Blade.”) (more…)

On a hectic pre-holiday Friday, Solon chips in his final bowl picks. Enjoy.

Greetings all.

All things considered, while this has been a thoroughly dissatisfying season for me, I suppose things should be put in perspective; after an uneven 6-11 start, I recovered to go on a 49-24 run–as good an extended run as I have ever had–before stumbling to a 17-28 (and counting) finish–as bad an extended run as I have ever had.

A wiser man than myself once said that the bottom line in this game is that you win some, you lose some, and you hope you win more than you lose. While for the better part of November I wondered if the first part of that adage was true, even in this, one of my more personally disappointing seasons, I have been able to accomplish this task; anyone using my selections, wagering with the traditional 10-11 vigorish, would show a profit for the season.

Profit! It’s what’s for dinner.

My two-year record stands at 156-124, a much more robust 55.7%; generally, a percentage above 55% is considered professional-level quality, and every season a 55% winning percentage is my stated goal. I will fall short of that number this season unless I am able to run the table with my final five selections, which given my current form is highly unlikely; hopefully this off-season I will learn some lessons and come back strong when next season starts.

As it stands (I am writing this Thursday night), my record for the year is 72-63, a winning percentage of 53.3%; please note that I still have wagers on South Carolina and Texas Tech still pending, in addition to those listed below. Hopefully I can close it out strong and build a little momentum for next season. Here are my final selections for the season:

COTTON BOWL, Dallas, TX

Nebraska (+1) v. Auburn

As I have said many times, I thought Auburn was overrated for much of the season. (more…)

The Subcommandante has taken over our bowl previews for today. Good luck!

Wassup bitchez! Subcommandante Wayne comin’ atcha from the O-H-I-Oh Oh Oh. Orson–total dick I can type that ’cause it’s my site today hahahahahha!!!–told me to do a bowl preview. I told him to suck it, ’cause the Subcommandante only takes orders from three men: the Commandante Jim Tressel, Commandante Emeritus (that means “dead” in Greek) Woody Hayes, and Lemmy. So again, let’s review the lesson here…oh yeah: suck it, and suck it. Your homework will be to learn this lesson and learn it well. OSU RULZ!!!

Wayne reminds you: OSU rulz.

Anyway, the Subcommandante’s giving his badass Druid a little breather after a ripping WoW session to give you a bowl preview. ‘Cause again: the Subcommandante knows no master save the Buckeye Lords. And Lemmy.

Name: The Pioneer Pure VisionLas Vegas

Motto: “Whores!” Dude, you can totally get a whore in Las Vegas. So that’s the motto: “Las Vegas Bowl: You need whores, and we’ve got ‘em.”

I’d move there if I had the money. And IF OHIO DIDN’T OWN WITH STEADINESS!!!

Intrusive Corporate Sponsor: The Subcommandante doesn’t see a sponsor here, since I’m thinking the Pioneer Pure Vision thing must be some tribute to the pioneer spirit or something, and how pure it all was when they stopped in the desert a thousand years ago and said: “We need a place for whores and gambling, and this looks perfect.” Whores, man. Ass for cash with class. Again, if not for the Grand Am, the Buckeyes, and all the tasty sweatpant candy rolling around the bars here, man, I’d be rolling the bones in Vegas and livin’ pimpin’ like it was Yahtzee.

Respect must be paid here, though. That’s the spirit that built America, people. Asskickers looking for a place to put their whore corps and just LFMing all over the place in search of loot.

Founded thousands of years ago, man. And Wayne’s feeling the history.

Tradition Rating: Since Las Vegas was founded a thousand years ago, this must be off the scale. Back then they played football wearing armor. That’s why they never passed, because they couldn’t see the ball through the little slit they had in the front. They also let live tigers and shit loose on the field. (more…)

Greetings all.

The Bowl season is upon us, which presents a unique challenge for the bettor. Some factors to consider:

(1) Motivation–which teams care about the games they are about to play, and which teams have already achieved their goals for the season?

(2) Departing coaches–are teams fired up to win one last game for their beloved coach, or do they give less effort because no matter how strong their performance they cannot save their coach’s job?

(3) New coaches–how quickly can teams adapt to wrinkles in the offensive or defensive gameplanning?

As for myself, for the most part I try to make my initial selections as if the situational factors did not exist, and then, when making my final selections, I add slightly more weight to the situational factors than I would during the regular season. By and large, I try to find the teams that are strong fundamental plays and also have favorable situational factors. Given that I majored in theology and not psychology this is easier said than done.

Remember, being a theology major does not make you a psychologist. It does qualify you for some jobs, though.

For the season, I currently sit at 71-61, a winning percentage of just under 54%–certainly a disappointing season by my own standards, but still more than good enough to make a straight bettor a profit for the season. Here are the bowl selections for the games to be played in calendar year 2006:

12/19: POINSETTIA BOWL, San Diego, CA

Texas Christian (-12) v. Northern Illinois

Northern Illinois’ presence in this game is attributable, largely, to RB Wolfe, who has had an amazing career and had an astonishing first half of the season. (more…)

Solon stops the bleeding with a good week of picks and some solid tailgating on the West Coast. The missing ingredient: ladies. Import a few to his next tailgater, and he may anoint you as an acolyte of Gamblor and show you his secret spreadsheets. Enjoy…

Greetings all.

First off, I would like to thank my hosts last week at the USC-Notre Dame game, the short-lived and oft-drunk but always entertaining blogger CollegeFootballPundit, and Ryan Abraham of USCFootball.com. A spectacular setup with 4 televisions and a satellite, so I missed very little of the action from around the nation; they also had some serious eats courtesy of the legendary Dan-O. So many of the elements were there that I almost thought I was at a Georgia tailgate–until I looked around and saw that it was a pickle party. Step it up, lads–bloody hell, it’s USC, import some of those song-girls!

Catherine Bell’s in LA, right? She likes beer, right? Give her a call.

I also chatted up HP and CFR, with whom I was able to have some discussion about the nature of College Football. A few more hours and we’d have figured it all out. It’s always good to talk to other obsessives.

I stopped the bleeding a little bit last week with a 5-5 record, leaving me at 14-25 for the month of November–36%–my worst record for any single month I can remember. Fortunately I have decided to pass on the MAC Championship, and hopefully I can step it up for December and January and finish up strong.

My record sits at 69-60 for the season, a winning percentage of 53%. Not too many options this week, but there are a few. Here are this week’s selections:

SATURDAY:

WEST VIRGINIA (-9) v. Rutgers

West Virginia laid a serious egg last week on O, the first time since QB White became the full-time starter that they did not go for at least 27 points. (more…)

Bring out the EDSBS wagering stick, ’cause we’re a-swingin’: the next football coach at Alabama will be Rich Rodriguez, a blind guess made after hours of talking with people who know slightly more about ‘Bama football than we do as well as a few trips down the rabbit hole of Alabama/South Carolina/West Virginia/National Security Agency message boards. (If you’ve never been there, they’re great; the cryptography department’s recipe boards are to die for, especially their pastry suggestions.)

It’s Rodriguez by triangulation, which means you prove it’s him more by saying why it’s not going to be everyone else. The rationale, laid out in just as shaky a fashion as everyone else’s:

Hey! There’s a limb! Let’s walk out on it.

1. Spurrier said he’s not taking the job. Therefore, he’s not taking the job. He’s only left one job abruptly, and is generally a pretty ethical and fair guy. (And when boy tyrant Daniel Snyder is that guy, you’re looking for any excuse to gnaw your arm off, slip the million dollar chains, and skedaddle–which Spurrier did.) It’s a matter of public record, and he’d be caught in a lie, which doesn’t jibe with his past track record.

2. Saban’s not a failure as a head coach. His team is marginally in the playoff hunt, he’s being paid five jillion dollars a year–which Alabama could not match without scandalous spending–and Saban won’t leave until he’s fired. And don’t proffer the “college is easier and the pros are burning him out” argument; Saban’s happiest when he’s drinking a glass of his assistants’ tears in a four a.m. film breakdown session before grabbing a catnap and then reducing 300 lb. men to more tears.

3. Paul Johnson has a lingering steroid issue, which will keep him off Alabama’s list. (Though a wag would suggest that a faint whiff of scandal would attract Bama boosters.)

4. Jim Grobe is avowedely not interested, and would in truth have lifetime job security at Wake. Plus: he’s approaching geezerhood, something which might cloud ten-year contract negotiations. Alabama’s looking for stability, as evidenced by their clinging to the worst NFL offensive coordinator we’ve ever seen for four years.

5. Rodriguez has something like a million dollar buyout. He’s never going to have a higher stock than he has right now, barring an undefeated season in the near future, and that’s fool’s betting.
He’s young, he’s in a smallish market, and has succeeded at each stop he’s made in the Takeshi’s Castle obstacle course of a coaching career. The money he makes as one of the most ill-paid coaches in the Big East would be at least doubled by Alabama, a financial deal he may not be able to refuse. The only rumored sticking point in negotiations is keeping Joe Kines as DC, and he may be headed to Texas, anyway.

He has not disavowed the job, either: he’s said that Alabama has not contacted him, which may be superficially true. (Then again, a lawyer or the search agency or a booster may have, which is legalistically different, right?)

He’s the only public candidate whose all thumbs up in the resume department who has not publically said that he isn’t leaving his current job. Therefore: Rodriguez announces on Sunday after the Rutgers game and becomes the next coach at Alabama.

QEDMF! We’re sure this will look great when Alabama announces the hiring of John L. Smith as their new head coach after everyone else bugs out, thus setting the stage for mass suicides by the Crimson Tide faithful as they slap themselves to death.

It’s been a very, very rough patch for our resident gamblord lately. Hopefully Thanksgiving break will find him going from turkey eaten to turkey eatin’ against the spread. Enjoy.

Another pathetic performance last week; that’s two weeks out of three going 2-8, after I hadn’t had a single week that bad since 1992. This one was much better than the last one, for what it is worth; whereas half of my games a few weeks ago weren’t even competitive, only the Mizzou and LSU games weren’t competitive this week.

Sometimes you’re the turkey. Sometimes you’re the deep-fryer.

And it doesn’t help when you have wankers like Petrino running it up to get a meaningless TD with 1.28 left in the game, sticking it to my action (of course, when he does it and I’ve bet on him, he’s totally cool).

To recap for those just joining us, here is my winning percentage this season by month:

September: 26-19 (58%)
October: 29-16 (64%)
November: 9-20 (31%)

At this point, I suppose I should just be thankful that my September and October were good enough to overcome the November that I am having.

I really have no excuses; I’m certainly not spending the time on this that I should–certainly, nowhere near as much as I did last year–but at this point my GUT of CFB is so off that I can’t imagine spending every waking second on it would change things too much. I did spend this Sunday away from the office and not working at home; my belief is that this cannot hurt things any if at all.

I have tried to adjust my assumptions a little bit this week, so hopefully I can get back on track. Still, it is clear that anyone who does anything other than bet against my picks at this point should have their head examined. My season record is 64-55, a winning percentage of 54%. Here are this week’s selections:

THURSDAY:

Boston College (-4) v. MIAMI (FLORIDA)

I used to often joke about how the last several seasons, Miami’s motivation for every big game, it seemed, was acting like they were being disrespected by the media and the public; unfortunately for them, they are so bad this season that they are unable to credibly make that argument it at this point. (more…)

Almost forgot Solon’s picks thanks to us watching the Pat White Video three thousand times today. Apologies to all our hardcore gamblers, hardworking Solon himself included.

Greetings everyone. I am bloody exhausted this week, so I’ll just get right to it.

I recovered from my Thursday night loss last week to end up at 5-4 for the weekend, leaving me with a season record of 62-47, a winning percentage of 57%. Hopefully I can bump it up a little and do better than last year’s 58%. Here are this week’s selections:

FRIDAY:

Central Michigan (-3.5) v. NORTHERN ILLINOIS

CMU served notice of their quality early this season with a close loss to BC, and they have delivered on that promise; last week’s win against WMU guaranteed them a spot in the MAC title game. Their strength is their O; and, while their D has been overmatched in non-conference competition, in MAC play they have only given up 14 ppg. NIU’s O showed much promise, but around the midway point of the season it all went pear-shaped; in their first 5 games they averaged 465 ypg on O, and in their last 5 they have averaged 283 on O ypg against roughly comparable opposition. There is little to suggest what brought on the change other than that RB Wolfe tired of being their sole weapon and the O has suffered without his superhuman performances. As mentioned, the CMU does has more than held their own against MAC offenses–334 ypg allowed in MAC play–and they should be fine against the weakening NIU O. The real advantage for CMU lies on the offensive side of the ball, where the CMU running game has stepped it up as of late and now matches their already-strong passing game as a threat. In MAC play, CMU is averaging 143 ypg and 4.43 ypc rushing; NIU has been pretty good against the run, but the better rushing attacks they have faced did reasonably well; Ohio ran for 178 yards, WMU ran for 129 yards, and Toledo ran for 225 yards, and I would rate the CMU running game as the best of this bunch. NIU’s biggest problems this season have been against the pass; in MAC play they have given up 252 ypg and 7.24 ypp with an 11-3 ratio, despite facing only two halfway decent passing attacks (Ball State and Miami (O)). The only one of these even remotely in CMU’s class is Ball State, and the Cardinals went 21-29 for 324 yds against the Huskies. I am concerned about the forecast–specifically, the potential for high winds–but the current forecast is for 10 MPH, and I think CMU’s passing game will still be able to perform at a high enough level to get ahead of this number.

Aeolus the god of wind cannot stop CMU’s passing game.

SATURDAY:

South Florida (+16.5) v. LOUISVILLE

Lost in the shuffle last week was how fortunate Louisville was to get to 25 points against a stingy Rutgers D; they had a KO return for a TD, and also needed a fake punt to set them up for another TD. In other words, after their first drive of the game, they were not able to manage a TD during the run of “normal” play. This is remarkable for a team like Louisville, but at the same time is par for the course for them this season, where I think they are finally feeling the loss of RB Bush; against the non-joke defenses they have run up against–Miami, K State, Cincy, Syracuse, West Va, and Rutgers–they are only averaging 29 ppg and 383 ypg. (more…)

Solon gives you a quick fix for Thursday night. He’s your mama, he’s your daddy, he’s that gambler in the alley…

THURSDAY:

West Virginia (-11) v. PITTSBURGH

If West Virginia had a hangover from losing to Louisville, they did not show it last week. And, the chances are good that they will have the bit between their teeth now; with Rutgers’ ascension, and a home game looming against the Scarlet Knights, a BCS berth is certainly within WVU’s range, and a berth in the title game is not out of the question either. What looked like a promising season for Pitt has crumbled recently; they have losses in their last three games, and in retrospect the only impressive win on the schedule looks to be against Cincy in week two. Pitt’s biggest weakness this season has been their run D; they were run over by Michigan State early (335 yds), and while they have stopped some lesser run offenses over the course of the season, both Rutgers (268 yds) and UConn (339 yds) have torn them up in the last couple of weeks. West Virginia’s running game will provide little comfort for the Pitt D; WVU has only failed to hit 259 yds once this season, and I rate them as the best rushing attack in the nation. Pitt’s running game has been an effective weapon on occasion, but usually it is only a factor against weaker run defenses; e.g., they averaged 5.37 ypc v. Toledo, Syr, UCF, and UConn, but only 2.79 ypc against UVa, Cincy, Rutgers, and USF. Outside of Rutgers, this will probably be the best run D they have faced; only three teams have hit 100 yds rushing against WVU this season, and two of those only just hit that number (Md, 105 yds/31 carries; Lou, 107 yds/30 carries). Pitt’s strength, of course, is its passing game; QB Palko has developed as a passer this season and now rates a dangerous opponent. However, his production is much less against strong pass defenses; Syracuse, Rutgers, and South Florida all held him to under 200 yards and Pitt only managed to score 21, 10, and 12 points in those games as Palko piled up only 6.95 ypp with a 3-3 ratio. The WVU pass D is legit; Louisville shredded them but that in and of itself is not cause for concern. Against the next best QBs they have faced (Md QB Hollenbach, ECU QB Pinkney, and Syr QB Patterson), WVU has only given up 5.55 ypp with a 4-4 ratio. Palko is certainly better than those QBs–and has a better set of WRs–but I think the WVU pass D will hold him in check and the Pitt O will not be able to keep up with a WVU O that has not scored less than 27 points since QB White has become the starter.

Pat White: so fast he runs the drunk off the first row of Mountaineer fans.

Well, I decided to honor the Stardust’s closing by giving money back to the ‘books. To quote John Facenda (from “Black Sunday,” the NFL Films Super Bowl XVIII piece), “It was a defeat from which no honor could be salvaged.” Nothing I can do, really, except try to shake it off and get back at it.

It was by far my worst week since I started writing this column, and from a historical standpoint, I hadn’t had a 2-8 week since 1992. Then, I shut it down for the season, and came back strong the next year; this time, I’ll ride it out. Certainly, the first part of my 2006 was considerably better than the first part of my 1992, so my hope is that it’s just a blip, and I can come back this week with some winners.

For the season, I still sit at 57-43, a winning percentage of 57%, not dissimilar to my winning percentage of 58% last season. Last season at this time, by winning percentage was around 52-54%. Lots of road teams and favorites this week. Here are the selections:

THURSDAY:

Louisville (-6) v. RUTGERS

First things first, I think Rutgers is a good team. That said, I do not believe they are an ‘8-0 team,’ if that makes any sense; I think their schedule to date has papered over some deficiencies. Wins over Illinois and Ohio look better now than they did at the time, but the win over UNC looks worse, and their only noteworthy wins are over the rather modest collection of South Florida, Navy, and Pitt. When you consider that Navy lost its QB in the 1Q that win is not as impressive; even if you do not downgrade Rutgers for that win it is a relatively light resume. Of more note is that while the Rutgers D has been great this season, they have yet to face a truly good O; no doubt they did a good job against the Pitt passing game and against the Navy running game (with the obvious caveat), but they have yet to face an offense that truly has any balance. In fact, while it is obvious that Louisville will have the best passing game that Rutgers has faced this season, given the Navy QB situation I think it may also be true that the Louisville O may also present the best running game they have faced. Given the weak offenses they have played, I give the Rutgers D little margin for error, and there seems to be plenty. Rutgers did well against Pitt QB Palko, but much less well against USF QB Grothe; even UNC QB Dailey had a pretty good game against the Rutgers D. In any event, the Louisville passing game is on a much different level than any of this lot. Rutgers has been pretty good against the run, but UConn freshman RB Brown–a decent back, but not this good–absolutely tore them up for 199 yards in their last game; normally, you could just dismiss this as an aberration, but given that they’ve really played no other decent RBs this season, it’s of particular note. The Rutgers passing game is nonexistent–there’s really no reason that a QB that has a running game as good as Rutgers does should be so ineffective, but he is ( 5.97 ypp, with a 5-7 ratio)–but Rutgers has a good running game and they will get their yards, little doubt. But given that Louisville will be able to pretty much ignore the Rutgers passing game they should be able to keep them in check. In the final analysis, while Louisville’s O will be kept in check somewhat, I do not think they will be stopped and Rutgers’ one-dimensional O will not be able to keep up. As long as Louisville can keep their heads after last week they should get ahead of this number.

Ray Rice: will attempt to completely demolish the BCS picture tonight.

SATURDAY:

ILLINOIS (-3) v. Purdue

I think Illinois turned it around a while back but they have yet to turn it into any end product. Since the Ohio game, they have played Penn State and Wisconsin tough on the road, and Ohio State tough at home–three of the four best teams in the Big 10–but they have yet to manage a win. You wouldn’t guess it, but Illinois has a pretty good D; in Big 10 play, they’ve only given up 109 ypg rushing ( 3.04 ypc) and 179 ypg passing (6.03 ypp) with a 4-4 ratio. Purdue’s O this season is not your typical Tiller O, and they have struggled against good defenses. Wisconsin held them to a FG and Penn State shut them out; Illinois’ D is not in that class, but it is not too far off and I think the Purdue O–which only gained 373 yds against a Mich St D that, outside of Indiana, probably has the worst pass D in the conference–will struggle to move the ball against them; the only QB who has had a good game against the Illinois D is Wisc QB Stocco, and please note that OSU QB Smith and Iowa QB Tate have been among their opponents. The Purdue D is pretty weak; to illustrate, they gave up nearly 400 yards to a very weak Penn State O. They have, in particular, struggled against the run; opposing RBs have averaged 5.73 ypc in Big 10 play. Illinois has averaged 161 ypg rushing (4.46 ypc) in Big 10 play; furthermore, they have averaged 134 ypg and 3.98 ypc the last three weeks against PSU, Wisc, and OSU. They will find the going easier this week against the Purdue D. Illinois QB Williams is not great but he is serviceable as a passer, and so long as he avoids mistakes it should be enough to let the Illinois running game and D take this one.

Navy (-12.5) v. EASTERN MICHIGAN

Navy has suffered a downgrade at the QB position with the season-ending injury to Hampton, but his replacement Kaheaku-Enhada has stepped it up and the net result appears to only be a small minus. If you eliminate the Rutgers game, where he had to come off the bench and was not entirely prepared, under Kaheaku-Enhada the Navy O has rushed for 246 yds against ND, and 435 yds against Duke; Navy’s overall offensive effectiveness does seem to be less–partly because Hampton was a better passer–but they still apparently have enough to overwhelm teams that are not their equivalents (given their authoritative win over an improving Duke team last week). EMU’s D has not been too bad in MAC play this season–21 ppg and 337 ypg–but their run D is very average, giving up 179 ypg and 4.70 ypc, and they have had trouble with mobile QBs; opposing QBs are averaging 42 ypg rushing on average, and those that can run have. Navy’s D is poor statistically, but as I have pointed out elsewhere they tend to give up considerably less points than you would expect given the yardage they give up ( i.e., they bend, but don’t break) and the EMU O is not particularly prolific; EMU has yet to score more than 21 points this season and they are averaging 16 ppg and 292 ypg. Adding to their offensive problems are injuries; QB Schmitt–the slightly better of the two QBs EMU rotates–did not play last week and he is listed as questionable. EMU’s O consists of mostly the QB running or throwing–the two leading rushers on the team are their QBs, so being limited at that position hurts them even more than one would usually expect. In addition, their top RB is out for the season, and their next RB in line, Harrison–and, keep in mind that we are talking about someone who only has 116 yards for the season–missed the last game and is questionable for this week. Navy’s pass D is really bad, but the EMU O is so limited that they will not be able to take advantage, and I think Navy will win this game with ease.

EMU!

Rice (+14) v. TULSA

I have been a big fan of Tulsa the last couple of seasons; I think this is the first time I am picking against them. (more…)

We’ll put more pretty pics in this post ASAP, but for the junkies we post fast few pics bet win GO!

A sad day for me today (I’m writing this on Wednesday), as the legendary Stardust Hotel and Casino in Las Vegas has closed its doors, making way for the building of Echelon Place, which is set to open in 2010. Anyone who has been there knows that the Stardust–the whole place, really–is a shitpile; its place in the history of sports betting in Vegas, however, is immeasurable.

Wayne Newton: that’s class.

A while back, I considered writing a piece on the most important figures in the history of sports betting in the USA. Suffice it to say, the column never got written, but the list was made–and there is little doubt, the #1 figure on any such list would be Frank “Lefty” Rosenthal. For cinephiles, Mr. Rosenthal provided the inspiration for the Sam Rothstein character (played by Robert DeNiro) in the Martin Scorsese movie “Casino.”

Mr. Rosenthal–blessed with a knack for statistics and mathematics–made his name as an accomplished horse and sports bettor, which attracted the attention of the Chicago mobsters, who were more than happy to listen to his input on gambling issues. Eventually, he earned their trust and was sent to Las Vegas to oversee the operation at the Stardust Hotel and Casino. In 1975, he testified in front of the Nevada State Legislature in favor of legislation allowing sports betting in the casinos, and he was instrumental in the legislation being passed. Prior to this point, the only legal sports betting in Nevada took place at “Turf Clubs”–unseemly places, similar to OTB parlors (for the New Yorkers among you), or to the betting shops in the UK. As it stood, these places were not especially conducive to betting–most visitors to Las Vegas preferred to spend their time at the larger hotel/casinos, and these places opened and closed with regularity.

After the legislation allowing sports betting in the casinos was passed, Mr. Rosenthal oversaw the construction of a Stardust Sportsbook that was quite visionary for its time. It was large–close to 10,000 square feet–and was designed to accommodate over 500 bettors. He installed a bank of large television sets in the wall opposite bettors, and devoted the majority of his space to horse racing, covering the five largest racetracks around the nation. All of this is SOP now, but at the time, it was revolutionary.

Even up until last year, the Stardust was the most highly respected ‘book in Vegas. On Sunday nights at 6.00 PM local time, they were the first sportsbook in town to post lines for the following week’s football games, a ritual that was followed by a lottery to determine the individuals that got first crack at them. In recent years, some of the offshore locations started putting up their lines before the Stardust would, but despite this the Stardust still generally set the trends with regard to the betting lines.

There’s little doubt that others have done it better since–Caesar’s Palace, Mandalay Bay, and the Las Vegas Hilton are three that immediately come to mind–but, for my money, the Stardust was always special, and it’s sad to see it go.

But a hearty thanks to Mr. Rosenthal–still alive and living in Florida–for setting the standard that all the others have aspired to imitate.

Losses in the Thursday and Sunday games last week put me a damper on my weekend, but an 8-1 Saturday more than made up for it. My record stands at 55-35 for the season, a winning percentage of 61%. Often times, things can get away from you quickly, but hopefully I can keep it going this week. Here are this week’s selections:

SATURDAY:

Boston College (-3.5) v. WAKE FOREST

With all due respect to all of the other contenders–Greg Schiano, Bret Bielema, and Terry Hoeppner come immediately to mind–I think this game is a matchup of the two coaches who have done the best job this season. I have always liked Jim Grobe, and when you consider that his team is 7-1, rebounding nicely after a crushing collapse v. Clemson that would have doomed all but the most resilient of teams. All this despite losing his starting QB in week 1, and stud RB Andrews in week 3–both of which have been replaced by freshmen–the job he has done is even more impressive. In fact, it is so impressive that I think he warrants coach of the year consideration even if Wake loses its last 4 games, which they may well do. Almost as impressive is the job Tom O’Brien has done with BC; despite losing 5 starters off his D, including star DE Kiwanuka, he has cobbled together arguably the best D in the ACC. In addition, BC is winning despite their QB pretty much playing injured all season. Fortunately for BC, the schedule offered up a game against lowly Buffalo last week, allowing the Eagles to rest QB Ryan (along with WR Gonzalez and LB Dunbar) and all of them should be ready to play this week. Wake, for their part, have fresh injury problems; an injury to RB Harris means that they are moving WR Moore to RB this week to share carries with RB Bryant. I do not rate the Wake running game as particular strong anyway; they have only averaged 100 ypg since the opener (when running QB Mauk was injured) and injured RB Harris was, by far, the best of their remaining options at RB. Wake’s passing game is actually pretty efficient–I’d wager that QB Skinner is an upgrade over QB Mauk, at least as far as his passing goes–but they don’t throw enough to take advantage; they are averaging 17 passes per game this season, and hitting over 170 yds passing only once, against Duke. Either way, BC’s pass D is pretty solid; while they’ve given up 245 ypg this season, opposing teams have thrown an average of 40 passes a game to get to that number, and their ratio is an impressive 6-11–and much of that damage was done by BYU, one of the better passing attacks in the nation (without BYU, the numbers drop to 213 ypg and 5.78 ypp). On D, Wake is strong against the run, but are much weaker against the pass; for the season, they are giving up 6.44 ypp and have a 5-8 ratio. These are impressive numbers until you consider that they have played Duke, UConn, UNC, and Ole Miss, 4 of the worst passing teams in the nation, and the best QB they have faced is probably Clemson QB Proctor, last seen pissing his pants against VT when they Hokie D took away the run–something Wake’s D couldn’t do. QB Ryan is not the greatest QB but he is certainly serviceable and makes few errors; he should do a fine job against this D. The BC running game is also not overly flashy, but they are good and will get yards in this game; BC was stuffed by the Clemson, VT and FSU Ds–83 ypg–but Wake is not the equal of those teams. Wake gave up over 200 yds to Clemson, and NC State went for 150; I do not think BC’s running game is as good as those teams, but UNC went for 123 (albeit on 38 carries) and I think BC is much better than that unit. BC has already won at FSU this season, and I think they will get another workmanlike win in this spot and get ahead of this number.

Jim Grobe: underappreciated, underrated…and will likely lose this Saturday.

CLEMSON (-16) v. Maryland

Clemson was stuffed last week by the VT D, but as long as they have not given up on their season–and, that’s possible when you consider that last week’s loss likely dropped them from the Orange Bowl to the Peach Bowl–I think they will get back on track this week. (more…)