Dollar Bill Doug comes off going Full Costanza with his best results of the year last week, and hopes to continue the hotness into a late season streak bringing him closer to .500. Or .300. Or…he’s building towards next year, people, and it’s important to get some game experience under his belt is what we’re saying. Enjoy.

RISK LEVEL 1: Watching the “awesometits.wmv” video your friend sent you on your work computer
Stanford -7.5 vs. California, 7:30 p.m.

What do you know: Turns out going full Costanza actually worked pretty well last week. OK, it didn’t work perfectly, but 3-2 still beats the 0-5s I was routinely putting up when I was going with my gut. (Stupid gut — it’s the one who told me AIG was “too big to fail” and that the guy who offered to sell me weed in a Vegas airport bathroom totally wasn’t a cop.) This week my gut’s been hinting that Stanford can’t possibly have a whole lot left in the tank after steamrolling Oregon and USC to the tune of 106 total points in back-to-back weeks, but if a major letdown was such a big risk for these guys, they probably would’ve lost to USC to begin with; as long as they’ve got Toby Gerhart (might some Heisman love be in line for this gentleman? Hello? Is this thing on?), they’ve got juice to spare. Maybe the one we should be asking those questions about is Cal — sure, they managed to come from behind to beat Arizona last week, but back-to-back big-game wins haven’t exactly been the forte of recent editions of the TedfordBot. (Don’t worry, though — when TedfordBot Vista comes out next year, all those problems will be solved. Really. We promise.)

RISK LEVEL 2: Peeing in front of a bunch of Georgia fans

Tennessee -16 vs. Vanderbilt, 7 p.m.

Following a world-class reaming from DEX-TAH MAH-CLUS-TAH and the Rebels, Tennessee returns home this weekend to lick their wounds, check in with their probation officers, and swat away a team who’s beaten them only once in their last 26 tries. (more…)

Dollar Bill Doug begs your forgiveness this week for subjecting you to the annus horribilus he’s going through on the punting front, and responds by going full Costanza on you this week. Enjoy.

RISK LEVEL 1: Opening an e-mail with the subject line “Hey look at this”

Georgia -5 vs. Auburn, 7 p.m.

If nothing else is working…go full Costanza.

First of all, let me say that y’all are a more forgiving commenting community than I could’ve ever dreamed. My picks have been absolutely horrendous so far this season, but y’all have mostly refrained from ripping me the new asshole I so richly deserve. There’s no beating around the bush, though — I’ve gone 0-5 two straight weeks and it’s time to shake things up. So this week I’m picking the opposite of my first instinct for all five games. And since my first instinct was to wonder how in the holy hell Georgia’s sputtering offense is supposed to cover five points on an Auburn team that appears to have put its three-game schnide behind it, I am forced to assume that the oddsmakers know something I don’t and that Georgia is about to post a big win. That something might be Georgia’s running game, which at long last appears to be getting into a groove and is poised to rip through Auburn’s 93rd-ranked rush defense. Or maybe the guys in Vegas think Chris Todd’s recent resurgence is a mirage (only 12 completions against Ole Miss, even though they were long; run-’em-up numbers against a lousy Furman team). Either way, though, my abiding belief in an Auburn upset should be all the convincing you need to bet the house on the Dawgs. See how this works? It’s easy!

RISK LEVEL 2: Double-fisting tequila and scotch whisky at your 30th birthday party (not that I, uh, know anything about that)

Ole Miss -4 vs. Tennessee, noon

Ole Miss as a favorite is another one I’m not ashamed to admit I don’t get. (more…)

Once again, man-hugs of inappropriate affection and duration to our resident degenerate gambler Doug Gillett.

RISK LEVEL 1: Throwing into coverage against a Willie Martinez secondary
New Mexico +28 at Utah, 6 p.m.
After last week’s disastrous picks, which began with a supposedly easy bet for New Mexico State to sneak under a gargantuan line against the Buckeyes, I must be crazy to put money on any team from the Land of Enchantment again, particularly one that has yet to win a game this season. (Congratulations, Mike Locksley: Not only are you the only coach in DI-A to earn both a sex-discrimination complaint and a reprimand for slugging one of your own assistants, you’ve also accomplished what was previously thought impossible by elevating NMSU to the status of premier football program in your state. One hundred cocktails, baller.) But the law of averages says the Lobos are going to win a game eventually, no matter how unlikely that might sound, and it might even happen this weekend, with Utah potentially nursing a QB controversy following an ugly home win over Wyoming last week. The Utes have quietly crept back up the rankings since their early-season loss at Oregon, but none of their wins have been blowouts, even the ones over mediocre-to-submediocre MWC opposition; they’ve also got a date at TCU next week that I suspect will be occupying most of their mental energies for the next few days. Betting on a straight Lobo upset requires bigger cojones than I’ve got, but it doesn’t take an undue amount of bravery to picture UNM squeaking inside a four-TD line in spite of their recent awfulness.

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An inappropriately affectionate welcome to our resident degenerate gambler Doug Gillett.

RISK LEVEL 1: Sneaking into a second movie after the movie you bought a ticket for ends
Indiana +7 at Virginia, 3:30 p.m. Saturday
Oddsmakers usually aren’t the type to fall in love quickly, but that seems to be what’s going on here: Virginia takes on a UNC team whose offense has barely gotten untracked all season, wins a hideous game, and now all of a sudden Al Groh is a touchdown favorite over somebody. I bet the guy who set the line for this game is the type who thinks the stripper is actually “into” him.

Indiana’s not a great team, but they did nearly knock off Michigan in the Big House, and whatever they had in the tank for that game is likely more than what Virginia had against the Tar Heels. If past trends are any indication, Groh will eventually rouse himself from his Ensure coma and win just enough games to keep from getting fired, but it’s still a little early for that yet. Take the Hoosiers and wait to bet on Virginia until they play someone they really have no business beating; that’s how this works.

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Get your FREE MAD WAGERIN’ MONEY from our resident degenerate gambler, the improbably handsome Doug Gillett.

RISK LEVEL 1: Trying to cram a slightly-too-large carryon into the overhead bin
Southern Miss -10 at UAB, 8 p.m. Thursday

Colorado-West Virginia may be the headliner this Thursday night, but the undercard at Legion field provides the better opportunity for moneymaking. Once upon a time, Southern Miss played the Lucy to UAB’s Charlie Brown, letting them hang in the game just long enough to gather a little hope before yanking the ball away and sending them to defeat (seven straight losses from 2000 to ‘06, by a total of 37 points). Since Neil Callaway became UAB’s head coach, though, Lucy has stopped yanking the ball away at the last moment and decided to simply blast Charlie Brown in the chest with a Mossberg before he can even start running. Southern Miss has won the last two games by a total score of 107-21, and with UAB’s defense languishing at 116th in the country, there’s no reason to think USM’s offense won’t be dumping a ton more points on them. Don’t feel bad, though, Blazers — you’ll always have Rice.

RISK LEVEL 2: Saying “I can make it one more exit” after your low-fuel light goes on
Clemson -13.5 at Maryland, noon Saturday

Unlike last year, when nearly every team in the conference seemed to be within just a game or two of 6-6, this year’s ACC already has some very identifiable doormats, and Maryland is most certainly one of them — their sole win is an overtime shootout against I-AA James Madison. At first blush, Clemson doesn’t look a whole lot better at 2-2, but those two losses were last-second defeats at the hands of ranked teams, and the Tigers are coming off a string of solid defensive performances in which they’ve allowed opponents to convert only 9 of their past 39 third-down attempts. Maryland is good at . . . well, nothing, really, except for handing the ball back to their opponents (their -10 turnover margin ranks as the nation’s fourth-worst). Between the TO margin and the Terps’ bottom-quintile ranking in nearly every defensive category, Clemson’s stable of superb offensive talent looks poised to finally put together a breakout performance.
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As pickster Holly is not around to help us make our casting couch picks, we’ll have to just soldier through them without her.

Orson: Miami IS Ray Liotta IN Anything. Let’s face it: Ray Liotta was never meant to make a film without at least one scene of him burying his fist in the face of a sniveling punk of some sort. There was that unfortunate time when he attempted to branch out, sure. (Refer to this in the Liotta canon as the “Corrina, Corrina” phase, though he did stage a spirited fistfight with Whoppi Goldberg for a fight scene that met the cuttring room floor.) Similarly, Miami was never meant to experiment with being an emotional, 8-5 ACC team–

THUNDERCLAPS.

EXCUSE ME.

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BetUS.com has the lines for your pending NCAA Violations kings, and you can practically smell the free money, young wagerers:

USC 8-1 This would require the NCAA actually getting a hold of Pete Carroll, and he typically routes all inquiries to Commodore Diarrheamouth.

Ohio State 9-1 If Maurice Clarett can exist, period, for a year in Columbus without repercussions, it is safe to say that a huge “FREE MONEY” booth put up outside Ohio Stadium for athletes would draw zero attention from NCAA officials. Correction: this would draw zero attention unless Ball State lined up for free money, too, and then they would bring the hammer down on Youngstown State for the whole thing.

Florida 10-1 Nah. Remember, we only break criminal code in Gainesville, and are deeply familiar with the actual rules of recruiting and player compensation.

Ole Miss 10-1 Is this just a “Hey, Mississippi’s kind of corrupt and backwards” pick? (more…)

Georgia Tech at Boston College

HOLLY (QUASI-RATIONAL): What do you call it when you’re picking a team for completely unsound reasons but they’re the better team anyway? I like Georgia Tech because I also like yelling, “BEEEEEEEEEEES!!” on a crowded sidewalk, but that doesn’t mean I’m wrong.

ORSON (RATIONAL) Tech by creeping strangulation. Even against Jacksonville State the flexbone moved with grinding, almost infuriating pace, like some kind of giant horseshoe crab filterfeeding its way down the field, except that this horseshoe crab could occasionally make huge leaps, so really, it’s like a tarantula in armor, but underwater, and…goddammit, just take Tech and Dwyer, and add in Tech’s defensive line to pressure BC’s suspicious passing game into mistakes. Money spent on the Tarantulaleapingcrab-Bot is money well spent.

Southern Miss at Auburn

HOLLY (QUASI-RATIONAL): Southern Miss is plucky, upstartish, moxiefied, and fresh from knocking off Louisiana-Lafayette. This will not save them. Auburn has the devil’s own luck when it comes to close games, but they don’t need it this week. (The chop blocks will continue, y’know, to stay limber.)

ORSON (QUASI-RATIONAL): Southern Miss to cover, but Auburn will pull this out despite some horrific staggers because, after Chris Todd puts them in danger of an upset he will save them from all evil by boldly handing off to Ben Tate and Brad Lester. If you have not seen Brad Lester run: he kicks up his knees to mid-stomach on every stride, making tackling him in close quarters as appetizing as bringing down an Emu at a full run. Emu knees for the win, since we’re so big on transmogrified animal metaphors today.

San Diego St. at Notre Dame (more…)

Mistakes were made. Maybe you lost some cash, or the use of your left leg, or the privilege of your girlfriend’s vagina, but hey, that’s why they call it gambling. Now quit your crying and hobble over here; we’re getting right back in the game. As any good degenerate knows, it’s only when you’re down that you get a taste of the life. They also know that when you’re down you bet more money, on more games, in order to get well. It’s like makeup sex, only better, because it lasts all weekend and you can do it with other dudes. You have my personal guarantee that these picks are (probably) impregnable.

Oregon @ Arizona (+ 12)

I can feel the lack of trust. It’s OK. This is why I’m going to get you back on your feet right now and make this as simple as possible. Arizona is terrible and their coach is Mike Stoops. Oregon is good, really good. Their coach is… well forget that. Oregon isn’t looking past the Cats this year either, since last year Arizona handed them their only loss of the season at Autzen in a humiliating 37-10 drubbing (Oregon was a 2 TD favorite). That’s not going to happen again. Oregon’s playing for a shot at a National Championship and Dennis Dixon is playing for a shot at the Heisman. Arizona is playing for the chance to save Mike Stoops’ job. I’m sure they can’t wait to play for that asshole for another year. This is your classic prison rape (ow!) game. Arizona will put up a fight early, realize it’s useless, and by the second half, they’ll be following the Ducks around holding onto their pocket like a good little punk. Nothing makes a Friday at the office/prison yard/massage parlor better than knowing you’re already up, so wash the taste of failure out of your mouth and put $100 on Oregon.

West Virginia @ Cincinnati (+ 6.5)

The Mountaineers are coming to town and they’re bringing Steve Slaton, the nation’s #3 rushing attack, and a shitload of gasoline with ‘em. They’ve outscored the Bearcats 80-24 over the last 2 seasons and their dominance will continue here. Slaton has rolled for 277 yards and six TD’s over those 2 games. I’m sure you saw West Virginia’s terrifying extended fumbling drills last week in the second half against Louisville, but have no fear, it was only a test. Sit back, relax, watch WFV dominate Cincinnati and be thankful your couch is spared.

Missouri @ Kansas State (+7)
Yes, please. Here’s what you have to realize with Kansas State: Bill Snyder isn’t walking through that door. Michael Bishop isn’t walking through that door. Darren Sproles isn’t walking through that door. Josh Freeman is, and he’s fat. (more…)

Points-shaving. First, a definition:

The illegal practice of deliberately limiting the number of points scored by one’s team in an athletic contest, as in return for a payment from gamblers to ensure winnings.

This is exactly what Toledo running back Harvey “Scooter” McDougle has been charged with by the Federal Bureau of Investigation, according to the Detroit News. The News broke the story on Saturday. The basics, according to both the News and noted secondary sources:

–McDougle was given a car, cash, and other benefits in exchange for shaving points off certain Toledo games by Gary Manni, a man only identified as “Gary” in the first News report. He was to recruit other players, as well, including other football players and basketball players. (You know, like Amway does, but with the FBI taking a vested interest in your “contacts.” )

–In turn, McDougle offered at least one other player $10,000 to sit out a game.

Your team…for just $10,000 a game?

–Manni, labeled “a professional gambler” in a subsequent report, admits knowing McDougle, but says he had nothing to do with point-shaving.

The funniest two pieces of information come from that second article, a piece in the manfully-named Toledo Blade. (You know it’s a rough town when even the paper is named “the Blade.”) (more…)