Week 4 - a few teams played legit competition and we get a shake down in the numbers. I'm trying to eliminate as much math as possible from these posts, so click here if you dare to figure out how I'm doing these calculations.
Points Per Play
Yards Per Point
The teams you see that exude "questionable" status (Maryland, SDSU, Rutgers, etc.) have pretty much played nobody. LSU having decent numbers continues to baffle us all - truly a mystery of the universe. It's making me consider subtracting penalty yardage from offensive yards per point - I'll call it the "Wannstedt Factor."
Interestingly enough, we have exactly 25 undefeated teams remaining. Lists of 25 tickle me in a special way, so here's the Yards Per Point listing of the "Remaining 25."
So the Boise State Haters(TM) club could use this as ammunition for why they don't belong or whatever. It is true that having a negative gap value always always always correlates to team suckage. But to the Broncos' defense, they've only played 3 games, two of which were quasi-shootouts. I'm sure they'll be able to improve in the next few weeks vs. Toledo, NMSU, etc.
On to predictions. I was 4-0 last week but pretty much anyone could've picked the winner on face value alone.
Tonight! Texas A&M at Oklahoma State (-3)
Texas A&M: 2.421 PPP, 5.6 Gap
Oklahoma State: 1.990 PPP, 3.1 Gap
I haven't actually seen either of these teams live yet, so this is truly a blind pick - Aggies!
Texas at Oklahoma (-3.5)
Texas: 1.234 PPP, -1.1 Gap
Oklahoma: 1.256 PPP, 5.3 Gap
A negative Gap value is never a good sign, this due entirely to the 'Horns allowing eleventeen billion rushing yards to UCLA. What could Demarco Murray do (in a perfect world where we don't consider the Sooners' awful defense)? I'll take Oklahoma in this one.
Wisconsin (-2) at Michigan State
Wisconsin: 2.183 PPP, 6.4 Gap
Michigan State: 2.591 PPP, 6.9 Gap
I really, truly, truly hope that for just one week we don't see "Sparty being Sparty" - maintaining a good lead for 3 quarters and blowing it all in the final minutes. Not because of Coach Dantonio's condition or anything, but because it would make my analysis look really good.
Penn State at Iowa (-7)
Penn State: 1.582 PPP, 5.8 Gap
Iowa: 2.607 PPP, 6.6 Gap
Keeping my analysis terse and dry, just like Big 10 football: Hawkeyes for the win.
Stanford at Oregon (-7)
Stanford: 3.176 PPP, 9.1 Gap
Oregon: 4.762 PPP, 17.1 Gap
Huge game in the Pac-10 that nobody on the East Coast will watch. Oregon at home to win it (though I really think Stanford can pull it off).
Florida at Alabama (-7.5)
Florida: 2.539 PPP, 11.3 Gap
Alabama: 3.893 PPP, 17.3 Gap
EPIC REVENGE FIGHT GO!!! Numbers don't lie son, Bama's got it in the bag. Even with a close game vs. Arkansas in the books, Alabama still leads the nation in Gap value. Thank you, Mr. Ingram.
Week 4 Fail 25 for Excellence in Fail
Jesus, New Mexico. Get it together. I fear the Lobos have wrapped the Fail game up in Week 4. Their Fail remains constant from week 3. Consistency counts, kids. Can they go lower? Fail 25 appears to be a list of bad mid-major teams - chances are they finished their September collecting checks from BCS contenders as they get rolled week after week. Maybe once conference play starts, the numbers start to shift a little.