As it stands the team that would most benefit from South Caronlina upsetting Auburn is TCU. They are poised to jump into the title game if Auburn loses.
Although it is far from a guarantee that Auburn won't go to title game if they lose, lets assume a loss is enough for them to fall to #3 in the BCS.
The BCS would look like this
- ACC Champ: Virginia Tech
- Big East Champ: UConn/WVU
- Big Ten Champ: Wisconsin
- Big 12 Champ: Oklahoma
- Pac 10 Champ: Oregon
- SEC Champ: South Carolina
- Guaranteed At Large: TCU - Top Non-AQ and ranked higher than a AQ Conference Champ
- Guaranteed At Large: Auburn - Top 4 in BCS Standings
Others available for at Large Selection (limiting them to the top 4 that have a legitimate shot because there will only be two at large selections up for grabs)
- Ohio State
- Michigan State
In this scenario the following selections will most likely take place:
National Championship game: Oregon vs TCU
The Rose Bowl selects first to replace Oregon. They will most likely take Stanford. The Rose Bowl has shown in the past that they will eschew the biggest draw in order to preserve the traditional Big Ten - Pac 10 match-up. For example Illinois in the 2008 (2007 season) game.
The Sugar Bowl selects next. They will most likely avoid an all SEC game, as the bowls traditionally avoid scheduling rematches. They will select Ohio State.
The Orange Bowl selects third. They will be thrilled to Auburn sitting there for the taking.
The Fiesta gets stuck with the Big East Champion
NCG: Oregon - TCU
Rose: Wisconsin - Stanford
Sugar: Ohio State - South Carolina
Orange: Virginia Tech - Auburn
Fiesta: Oklahoma - UConn / WVU
The biggest winners if South Carolina pulls off the upset are the people who make money on the Orange Bowl. The biggest losers are Arkansas because they lose their at large BCS bid.