Christopher Hitchens disagrees that he’s arguing for the non-existence of CJ Spiller. Instead, he thinks since you posit him, you must prove his existence.
Im not sure why PJ is being so much credit for making what is clearly the mathematically correct call.
Nesbitt picking up the first down is a higher probability than making the FG. And the FG only gives you a chance to win in the 2nd OT and that chance cant be much greater than 50% or you wouldnt be in the spot to begin with.
The fact that there are coaches that would have kicked it doesnt mean that Johnson’s balls are special, it means that a bunch of coaches dont have any to begin with.
@10, I could look up numbers but I think it can be done with just some thought experiments. The only time this year GT has failed on a 4th and one was early in the Wake game when the snap to Nesbitt was fumbled. The odds of a bad snap are greater on the FG attempt than on a QB snap, so even a perfect kicker is going to have a lower percentage, just due to bad snaps. Blair is good on short kicks, but he isnt perfect and has shanked a few balls this year too.
@12 By fail on forth I think you mean fail on 4th and one. We failed on short a couple other times this game.
Regardless though, it was still a gutsy call. The smart call? Yes, but it was also gutsy. Traditionally an extra point has a higher conversion rate than a 4th down QB sneak that the entire stadium knows is coming. But teams don’t traditionally have Nesbitt and Blair.
@gtne91…”Nesbitt picking up the first down is a higher probability than making the FG.”
Only if you have Clemson’s kicker.
It was Les Miles ballsy for Johnson to go for it on 4th and long in the 4th quarter. The OT call was pretty sane, I thought, because he was making a call to NOT allow his defense back onto the field.
Out of curiosity: could anyone watching the FSU/Clemson game on TV hear the Clemson student section booing their own kicker for missing his third straight kick (incl. PATs) of the night (which, for the record, was a straight shot from about the 35)?
The cold-blooded mathematician would figure Blair has about a 95 percent chance of making the kick, but that gives you only, at best, a 60 percent chance of winning the second overtime, considering the relative merits of the two teams in the red zone. So that’s a 57 percent chance of winning the game before you kick. Nesbitt has at least a 90 percent chance of converting fourth down, and prolly a 90 percent chance of scoring a TD on first and goal from the three. So that’s an 81 percent chance of winning before you go for it on fourth.
Paul Johnson, of course, sneers at your “math,” and does whatever the voice in his pants tells him to do.
@ Richard Jackson 4 Heisman: I was on the Hill for that game, and believe me, the booing was the least of that kid’s problems. The death threats, now, those were more of a concern. I know fans talk like that all the time, but these guys sounded sincere.
On the other hand, when he hit the PAT on the final TD, you’d have thought he’d just kicked a 60-yarder to beat #2 ranked Georgia.
USC ranked 9th after snapping Washington’s loosing streak, getting shelled by the quack attack, and a season’s worth of narrow wins can be the work of only one deity, Crazy Old Testament God. I can only assume COTG has set in motion the events for some sort of epic, over-rated, bowl game beat down for his own amusement.
I may be late to this party, but Holly, I’ll have you know the Our Town quote has inspired a two-days-and-counting My So-Called Life marathon. Yay, unemployment. Also, thank you!
May the Jimmy Pout go down in college football history. Put him on suicide watch until he talks to an agent
(No NCAA sanction…he’s refreshingly Aryan) and goes on to roll in a gigantic pile of money with many beautiful
women. Holly, a shout out to Knoxvegas and its bad newspapers, worse sportswriters, and the smooth talking
gambler we have for a head coach. (I don’t care if our third string defense has an average height of 5′2” and weighs less than a ton collectively. I expect them to make PLAYS, goddamnit!)
Orson Swindle and Stranko Montana are two men pushing thirty who should know better than to run a college football blog, but evidently don't. Both graduated from the University of Florida, and both agree that college football is far too important to be left to the professionals.
Contact
Comments? Questions? Long strings of profanities directed at something we said? Please send your comments to harumphharumph -a- yahoo -dot- com. Please direct all tailgating photos and stories to edsbsfans -a- gmail -dot- com.
1
Bobby Decatur says:
Sometimes it all just comes together.
November 8th, 2009 at 9:42 pm
2
PSUGuru says:
I was thinking something more along the lines of…”Navy stole my bike!”
November 8th, 2009 at 9:53 pm
3
Will says:
Christopher Hitchens disagrees that he’s arguing for the non-existence of CJ Spiller. Instead, he thinks since you posit him, you must prove his existence.
It’s the stickler in him, don’t you know.
November 8th, 2009 at 10:01 pm
4
ShaneTCU says:
Jimmy just lies down and accepts it, like a good Catholic boy.
November 8th, 2009 at 10:05 pm
5
PW says:
are the sparkly things in the EDSBS logo meant to be seen only by Claussen?
November 8th, 2009 at 10:06 pm
6
TechDan says:
Paul Johnson has stones that would put a whale to shame.
November 8th, 2009 at 10:38 pm
7
gtne91 says:
Im not sure why PJ is being so much credit for making what is clearly the mathematically correct call.
Nesbitt picking up the first down is a higher probability than making the FG. And the FG only gives you a chance to win in the 2nd OT and that chance cant be much greater than 50% or you wouldnt be in the spot to begin with.
The fact that there are coaches that would have kicked it doesnt mean that Johnson’s balls are special, it means that a bunch of coaches dont have any to begin with.
November 8th, 2009 at 10:52 pm
8
roaminggator says:
So I wonder how much Luther Campbell is paying per touchdown nowadays. JH is really making bank.
November 8th, 2009 at 10:54 pm
9
Kevin@LSU says:
Are you serious, no mention of the guy with no pinkie. UN-BELIEVABLE!
November 8th, 2009 at 11:22 pm
10
umm says:
“Nesbitt picking up the first down is a higher probability than making the FG.” [citation needed]
November 8th, 2009 at 11:23 pm
11
Farsider says:
The no-pinkie guy in the ‘Bama-LSU game is going to be a classic fark for somebody. Calling the Freek!
November 8th, 2009 at 11:27 pm
12
gtne91 says:
@10, I could look up numbers but I think it can be done with just some thought experiments. The only time this year GT has failed on a 4th and one was early in the Wake game when the snap to Nesbitt was fumbled. The odds of a bad snap are greater on the FG attempt than on a QB snap, so even a perfect kicker is going to have a lower percentage, just due to bad snaps. Blair is good on short kicks, but he isnt perfect and has shanked a few balls this year too.
November 8th, 2009 at 11:47 pm
13
Big Head Zach says:
@10
[1] Nesbitt, Josh: “That’s me crossing the first-down marker with the ball.”
November 8th, 2009 at 11:50 pm
14
Big Head Zach says:
But in all seriousness, if Nesbitt can’t make a yard on a run play, they deserved to lose that game.
Still pretty tight with the secondary defense late in the game though. That’s how we kept VT at bay for the entire game, too.
November 8th, 2009 at 11:52 pm
15
CincyJacket says:
@12 By fail on forth I think you mean fail on 4th and one. We failed on short a couple other times this game.
Regardless though, it was still a gutsy call. The smart call? Yes, but it was also gutsy. Traditionally an extra point has a higher conversion rate than a 4th down QB sneak that the entire stadium knows is coming. But teams don’t traditionally have Nesbitt and Blair.
November 9th, 2009 at 12:00 am
16
CincyJacket says:
@ me By short I mean 4th, as in 4th and 8 etc.
November 9th, 2009 at 12:04 am
17
Wilbur says:
@gtne91…”Nesbitt picking up the first down is a higher probability than making the FG.”
Only if you have Clemson’s kicker.
It was Les Miles ballsy for Johnson to go for it on 4th and long in the 4th quarter. The OT call was pretty sane, I thought, because he was making a call to NOT allow his defense back onto the field.
November 9th, 2009 at 12:22 am
18
S. Manager says:
Man, Jimmy picked the wrong day to say his goodbyes.
November 9th, 2009 at 12:45 am
19
Richard Jackson 4 Heisman says:
Out of curiosity: could anyone watching the FSU/Clemson game on TV hear the Clemson student section booing their own kicker for missing his third straight kick (incl. PATs) of the night (which, for the record, was a straight shot from about the 35)?
Good times, good times.
November 9th, 2009 at 1:12 am
20
WarChiziken says:
Holly, have we said thank you lately?
you are to EDSBS what EDSBS is to our offseason – a kind dealer to all us CFB junkies
November 9th, 2009 at 1:21 am
21
TampaGatorGal says:
What WarChiziken said! and on a Sunday, no less! (when no one is functional) thanks Holly
November 9th, 2009 at 1:44 am
22
Golden Hand says:
The cold-blooded mathematician would figure Blair has about a 95 percent chance of making the kick, but that gives you only, at best, a 60 percent chance of winning the second overtime, considering the relative merits of the two teams in the red zone. So that’s a 57 percent chance of winning the game before you kick. Nesbitt has at least a 90 percent chance of converting fourth down, and prolly a 90 percent chance of scoring a TD on first and goal from the three. So that’s an 81 percent chance of winning before you go for it on fourth.
Paul Johnson, of course, sneers at your “math,” and does whatever the voice in his pants tells him to do.
November 9th, 2009 at 7:48 am
23
Crabapple Buck says:
The look on Jimmy’s face says – Decided schematic advantage my ass!
Excellent work as always Holly.
November 9th, 2009 at 8:15 am
24
thetennesseethumper says:
maybe its just me, but if you added the mandibles, would juh-juh-jimmy look like “Predator” sans battle mask?
November 9th, 2009 at 9:35 am
25
WBE Jerry says:
Saints and poets and bloggers, maybe. They do some.
November 9th, 2009 at 10:36 am
26
opsomath says:
@ Richard Jackson 4 Heisman: I was on the Hill for that game, and believe me, the booing was the least of that kid’s problems. The death threats, now, those were more of a concern. I know fans talk like that all the time, but these guys sounded sincere.
On the other hand, when he hit the PAT on the final TD, you’d have thought he’d just kicked a 60-yarder to beat #2 ranked Georgia.
November 9th, 2009 at 10:56 am
27
Jeff Demps Particle Collider says:
USC ranked 9th after snapping Washington’s loosing streak, getting shelled by the quack attack, and a season’s worth of narrow wins can be the work of only one deity, Crazy Old Testament God. I can only assume COTG has set in motion the events for some sort of epic, over-rated, bowl game beat down for his own amusement.
November 9th, 2009 at 11:21 am
28
PalmettoTiger says:
Clausen pondering “Our Town” is just sublime. Much applause to you, Holly.
PT
November 9th, 2009 at 1:14 pm
29
Twizlah says:
It’s always the 4th quarter for No Pinky Guy.
November 9th, 2009 at 1:44 pm
30
TC says:
@18 He picked his birthday, though not a particularly special one. That was his first mistake.
November 9th, 2009 at 5:33 pm
31
GatorAM says:
I may be late to this party, but Holly, I’ll have you know the Our Town quote has inspired a two-days-and-counting My So-Called Life marathon. Yay, unemployment. Also, thank you!
November 10th, 2009 at 5:06 pm
32
Lit3Bolt says:
May the Jimmy Pout go down in college football history. Put him on suicide watch until he talks to an agent
(No NCAA sanction…he’s refreshingly Aryan) and goes on to roll in a gigantic pile of money with many beautiful
women. Holly, a shout out to Knoxvegas and its bad newspapers, worse sportswriters, and the smooth talking
gambler we have for a head coach. (I don’t care if our third string defense has an average height of 5′2” and weighs less than a ton collectively. I expect them to make PLAYS, goddamnit!)
November 12th, 2009 at 4:35 am