IDIOT SLOW DOWN: YOU ARE NOT READY FOR 2009

by Orson on Jun 3, 2009 4:38 PM EDT

Idiot...slow down... We can't believe we're saying this, but the offseason may be moving just a bit too fast in one respect: just poring over even an nth of Phil Steele's 2009 College Football Preview convinced us we're not prepared for the 2009 season, as in "going to an ant party wearing a suit made of honey" unready. We're completely unprepared for a world where:

--Notre Dame is ranked 7th by someone other than Tom Lemming.

--Cal is ranked 9th.

--Ole Miss is ranked higher than LSU

There's a whole host of other shocking but evidence based conclusions in this year's edition of Phil Steele, including the suggestion that Bill Snyder will somehow have a better year than Mark Mangino. (Phil's obviously underrated the flow and sick pimpness of Marky M.) You should pre-order and buy it so we can call each other on the phone and talk about after the movie like two giggly schoolboys.

The one thing that has always struck me as a misleading stat Phil uses--and admittedly, it's one factor in a huge set of stats--is starts lost.

It is not an entirely irrelevant at programs who have been relatively successful over the years leading up to the year in question. Good talented sophomores hopefully become well-seasoned and talented seniors, etc...but how useful this stat is becomes a legitimate question when you have mid-grade talent used by coaches over more talented up-and-coming talent sitting behind them simply because of the age difference. In other words: just because your team has more experience and returning starts as a group does not mean your group isn't a bunch of relatively mediocre talent just aged another year.

Take a look at last year's stats and you'll see how random this really is. Florida had a substantial number of losses at 25, Clemson returned plenty of starts at 101st, Syracuse was even better in terms of seasoned experience at 118...it's spotty correlation that begs for a bit of scatterplotting. It also highlights coaching aptitude: if a team like Syracuse returns that many starts and still fails to compete, the better question is "What kind of experience has your team had?" As scary as it sounds, data like this implies Syracuse players got little if anything out their time with the Syracuse coaching staff. (Then again: you already knew that, and this is just confirmation.

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Don’t you worry your pretty little head, Orson. We’ll take care of Cal and their high ranking on Sept. 19th.

It it Steelesmas yet?

by WhiteSpeedReceiver on Jun 3, 2009 4:45 PM EDT reply actions

Was ND 7th as in best football team or team with highly over-rated QB with bad haircut?

by Touchdown74 on Jun 3, 2009 4:49 PM EDT reply actions

Tell Phil Steele just go ahead and quit it. Just quit with all the information already.
We have to survive a damn hurricane season down here before we can focus on football and stuff like numbers and “stats” Now that Orson has got me roped into this “True Blood” bandwagon, I’m spending my time getting caught up by passing the time watching this show, and it got me thinking, which Coaches would be damn good vampires, or may be actual vampires? Nick Saban? he sure as hell doesnt sleep anyway? Corch Urban Meyer?
I think Tim Tebow would have to stake him if he found out. Mangino? There aint enough population in Kansas to sustain him……..

by Mr. Pelican Pants on Jun 3, 2009 5:17 PM EDT reply actions

I thought Phil Steele was a porn star.

by TrojanAlslovechild on Jun 3, 2009 5:23 PM EDT reply actions

You know…come to think of it…have you ever seen a fat Vampire? They all look like Lindsey Lohan after an all night bender.

by Touchdown74 on Jun 3, 2009 5:29 PM EDT reply actions

Does this mean EDSBS Live will be discussing this shortly?

ND 7th? Just. Don’t. Get. It. Apparently Beano Cook has eaten Steele and is writing in his stead.

by Maize n Brew Dave on Jun 3, 2009 5:29 PM EDT reply actions

ND plays an easier schedule than most D-3 teams, so them at 7 to start the season is all f-ed up but they’ll be high to end it, despite being sodomized by SC.

ill say i hate cal, and i do, but i dont think going 3-5 in the big XI strikes fear into many teams. bully to you for being the glass half full type.

by fife in the bay on Jun 3, 2009 5:35 PM EDT reply actions

@1: 42-17, punk.

@7: 37-16, punk. (I’m assuming you’re a ’furdie, in which case 6-1, 5-7 might also be stats of interest.)

by AERose on Jun 3, 2009 6:47 PM EDT reply actions

Not to get too sabermetricky, but answering “What kind of experience has your team had?” might look something like number of wins by returning players divided by number of starts of returning players. It’d be like a winning percentage, but still might not be useful.

by BeaverJohn on Jun 3, 2009 6:51 PM EDT reply actions

Also, the “starts” stat doesn’t account for the fact that a totally mediocre coach with a huge buy-out can completely squander high-calibre, veteran talent. (Raises middle finger in the general direction of Tommy Bowden). Which brings up another fun game – Coaches as stocks. Which stock performance over the last 10 years most resembles your coach? I’d say T Bowden and Lehman look somewhat similar…

by bundesliga on Jun 3, 2009 7:22 PM EDT reply actions

@6 – beat me to it. My first thought was, “Beano!”

@7 – the schedule is weak this year, but at least we don’t have any North Alabama St. Techs on the schedule.

I love football. Go us.

by Domer Guy on Jun 3, 2009 10:54 PM EDT reply actions

OMG….OMG!!! I’ve got mine!!!! CALL ME!!!

ND has the #36 best schedule…Bama…#68…so, I guess that isn’t all of it.

ND is the #9 in his Power Poll, so I think he just thinks they have enough highly rated recruits that have a lot of experience + a “not so good”, but not pathetic schedule…and, of course, if they Catolica do anything the media LEAPS on board= a top 10 finish.

by hinesacl on Jun 4, 2009 1:59 AM EDT reply actions

Scatterplots, hell yeah, I knew there was a reason I read this blog. Show me the scatterplot!!!

by starkvegas on Jun 4, 2009 9:36 AM EDT reply actions

Yeah, Orson, show us your scatterplot!

by Gen. Stoopnagle on Jun 4, 2009 11:15 AM EDT reply actions

Cal @ 9th? If Riley remembers to take his Ritalin this year and the OL doesn’t lose three starters again that’s doable. Getting southern cal early at home will help as does having Maryland at home (redemption game anyone? Think Vols in 07). Going to Minn will be tough especially playing in the new stadium (It’s called the gopher hole i believe).

Scatterplots? I thought you went to grad school for English Orson?

by oaktownbear on Jun 4, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions

I hope someone or something can derail ND before the hype maching goes into overtime and saves Charlie Weis from his Humpty Dumpty great fall. I was so looking for Urban to go to Notre Dame so he can find out how losing on a regular basis with someone else players that dont have talent, except for Golden Taint.

by Mr. Pelican Pants on Jun 4, 2009 11:40 AM EDT reply actions

One word for the irish bandwagonners and those who think charlie Weis pays attention to things like strength of schedule and/or things like defense and special teams:

Syra EFFIN Cuse.

by Counter Trap on Jun 4, 2009 12:09 PM EDT reply actions

11-1 is pretty much a certainty with that schedule, and you can believe weis will be on the hot seat and possibly canned if he goes 9-3. 10-2 gets us to the BCS, and I have a feeling we’re goign to beat USC, so I’m not a half-empty type of guy.

If you look at all the teams on ND’s schedule who are losing people to injury and transfers, it’s pretty stunning. even the good teams that we play are going to suck this year (I’d post yakety sax for M&BDave, but I’ll just sit back and let him enjoy his upcoming season)

by Wooderson on Jun 4, 2009 12:17 PM EDT reply actions

Syracuse’s program has been absolute crap ever since they fired Pasqualani at halftime during the Champs Sports Bowl after they let REGGIE BALL be the MVP of the game. REGGIE BALL and CHAN GAILEY killed the Syracuse football program.

by GTSteve on Jun 4, 2009 12:37 PM EDT reply actions

@8: First of all, we’ve had a coup since then. New military regime. This one can recruit but can’t coach on saturday, which is a step up from being inept at both. Secondly, that new stadium smell will still be there for all of you that come to visit. And thirdly, everyone knows that home field advantage is worth 35 points.

(It was a bloodless coup. All smotherings.)

by WhiteSpeedReceiver on Jun 4, 2009 1:12 PM EDT reply actions