SAGARIN IS POT-CLANGING INSANE
You can tell a lot about a website. For example, this one is loaded with ads, a hopelessly neglected blogroll, a homer-ish banner and colors, and profanities. This means it is probably run by a guy who is a bit greedy, profane, and devoted to his team past the point of rationality. This would be correct on all counts.
Look at Jeff Sagarin’s site, and just block out the words for an instant. The HTML HOTT style indicates the devoted efforts of someone who, in another life, would make the exact same site to tubthump about any of the following:
–Vaccine conspiracy theories
–Boundary theory and its implications on the global capitalist system
–Genital pumping FAQs
–The fixed earth theory.
The Sagarin site really is similar to the Fixed Earth site–scarily so. The Sagarin site also has the ACC as the second strongest conference right now. Could God have engineered something like that for the real Earth? WE THINK NOT FIXED EARTH NOW!!! Sagarin also has JMU above Notre Dame YES FIXED EARTH NOW IT IS NOT ROTATING BECAUSE THAT IDEA IS CRAZY.
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1
now_a_hoo says:
In defense of my undergrad alma mater: the duke loss was from when duke was marginally ok, and JMU would at least have scored on BC.
November 14th, 2008 at 12:05 pm
2
SDSMP says:
Orson, thank you for making me waste numerous hours of this week reading about the cause of the Tacoma Narrows Bridge Collapse (wow, really? 42 mph wind can do that?!?!), and now, the inanity that is fixed earth theory. I, and my boss, thank you heartily.
November 14th, 2008 at 12:12 pm
3
Der Schatten says:
Yep, sack o’ rabid weasels, certifiably batshit…Now, as for the Fixed Earth theory.
November 14th, 2008 at 12:13 pm
4
alanon says:
whoopdy do
nd would crush jmu
November 14th, 2008 at 12:18 pm
5
Jebus says:
I find Sagarin’s site organized, and well thought out.
Signed,
Gene Ray
http://www.timecube.com
November 14th, 2008 at 12:20 pm
6
Holly says:
+1 for the Timecube shoutout. I had no idea that site still existed. (Well, of course it does.)
November 14th, 2008 at 12:23 pm
7
Dinknflicka says:
Now we know what Byron Leftwich has been doing in the offseason.
November 14th, 2008 at 12:28 pm
8
Kernel says:
I find it disturbing that the national championship is based, in part, on a computer poll run by a guy whose website was designed using all the latest in Cobalt and Fortran.
November 14th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
9
PeterPumpkinhead says:
You know, it’s shit like this that makes me want to build a bunker under my apartment…
November 14th, 2008 at 12:30 pm
10
sb says:
kernel @ #8…that would be “COBOL” and fortran…frickin’ kids…
November 14th, 2008 at 12:41 pm
11
Evan says:
Did Matt Drudge design that piece of shit?
Oh God, please don’t click through to our blog…
November 14th, 2008 at 12:42 pm
12
ChasingMizzou says:
I agree with Mr. Sagrin that the BCS is full of occult mathematicians. Or was that the other site?
November 14th, 2008 at 12:43 pm
13
Mich-Placed Gators says:
You mean there’s actually people out there that think the earth is MOVING and NOT FLAT?
Idiots….everyone can see it’s flat, and can you feel it moving? NO
DUH….stupid people amaize me
November 14th, 2008 at 12:47 pm
14
Saltbagel says:
Actually those are the ratings that Sagarin himself doesn’t believe in. The blue ratings are the ones he believes in, which are based very heavily on margin of victory, and are the ones he uses to handicap. There are still some strange results, but they generally make more sense.
The red ratings are the ones that the BCS forces him to use, because they don’t allow the computer ratings to factor in scoring. The purple ratings are a synthesis of the two.
The real Sagarin ratings would have JMU as a 3 point dog to the Golden Pears.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:00 pm
15
now_a_hoo says:
You know how we know ND would “crush” JMU? Because of all the non-crap teams ND has beaten this year.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:07 pm
16
KYGator says:
What would happen if you locked the Time Cube guy in a room with the Fixed Earth guy? I believe that their debate would be resolved, because either the universe would implode or Armageddon would occur.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:13 pm
17
yoyofutbawl says:
I think we should lock Time Cube guy in a room with Cap’n Leach for an hour. Birds of a feather.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:40 pm
18
meatybob says:
All in all, is the Sagarin rating system really any worse than AP voter Michael Wilbon, who said that USC is the best looking 1-loss team in the country, even after the offensive abortion that was USC vs. Arizona. I don’t think he even bothers watching football, he already knows it all.
In sum, its not that the machines don’t suck, its just that the voters are really no better.
November 14th, 2008 at 1:44 pm
19
DC Trojan says:
@ meatybob – much as I would like to offer a snappy comeback, it has to be said: Wilbon doesn’t know shit about college football. Admittedly, he’s starting with a handicap of having gone to Northwestern, but still.
As for the computers, I think it’s this: voters are inept because they are trying to come up with a quantitative ranking system against several small non-comparable populations – it’s statistically impossible. Software based ranking systems do the same thing faster with better data recall. The problem is trying to bring statistical rigor where it can’t be applied (see, most statistical studies in the social sciences…)
November 14th, 2008 at 2:32 pm
20
Kernel says:
sb @10
Not a kid . . . just marginally less a dork than you, apparently.
November 14th, 2008 at 2:44 pm
21
Ears Whitworth says:
@18: Wilbon isn’t an AP voter. The Post doesn’t allow its sportswriters to vote on any awards or in any polls.
November 14th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
22
Larry Langolier says:
If your point of reference is the Earth, then the sun does indeed revolve around the Earth.
November 14th, 2008 at 3:25 pm
23
DC Trojan says:
kernel @ 20 – you intrepid ibex, you.
November 14th, 2008 at 3:29 pm
24
Rawk says:
@19, ten-minute time out for intelligent discourse. Go listen to a PTI podcast and come back here in a more drone-like and agreeable mood.
So JMU is #25 in the official BCS Sagarin rankings? They are one other computer putting them in the top 25 away from appearing in a hypothetical list of BCS also receiving points teams? Freaky. I refuse to believe that my brother’s alma mater has a football team that belongs on a list that I want to see my team on.
November 14th, 2008 at 4:01 pm
25
cbd says:
The real insanity here is Sagarin’s strength of schedule rankings. No frickin’ idea where those numbers come from.
November 14th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
26
sb says:
kernel @ #20…touche! But if you’re gonna be a dork, be a good, well used one. I hope, for your sake, that you have attained that honor.
Ladies and gentlemen, at 4:20 est, it is martini time. May yours be crisp, well-shaken and satisfying. Go Gators!
November 14th, 2008 at 4:21 pm
27
CNB says:
Apologies for the glancing reference to a different, hated sport around here, but this does also seem to explain another group that is often reviled for their valuing system: http://www.baseballwriters.org/
November 14th, 2008 at 6:30 pm