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THE ODDS: CUSTOM COACHING NOOSES FOR '08

Please welcome our guest The Kid, who you may recognize from Fire Mark May and various other pieces of exceptional ADD theater. With apologies to A.J. Daulerio, we're going to have him set the odds on the tightest coaching nooses for 2008. Enjoy.

The summer has reached its All Star Break. We're way way past the eternal hope of spring practice, we're well into the dregs of voluntary workouts, early commits, and sweaty middle aged men taking bootleg photos of younger sweatier men at two a days is not that far around the corner. Hovering just around the 40 day mark, and we're playing Noah. Its time to start building that Ark. Bring me two of every internet rumor! Bring me that ooey gooey mortar with which to build my caulk my flood faring vessel so I can storm the coming deluge of hysteria. Its time to start getting crazy. Its time to get pumped about football. 2009 has taken up its permanent home in the Xbox, and there's nothing left to do but sit and wait.

HOWEVER! We can start throwing around some gentlemanly wagers, so let's start laying the lines, collecting the vig, and keeping that book of mine all nice and tidy. In what I hope will be recurring as long as I'm allowed on the blogosphere's cool kids table, I'll be offering up the odds for a number of college football propositions. Starting things off on the right foot, right there at the tippy tippy top, Im going to set my aims on the CEOs, the Big Men, the head coaches of these fine programs of ours.

We've all been there. Hell, I've been there more times in the past 8 years than I care to fathom. The coaching search has taken on its own sort of biblical journey in my life, so much that I created my own freaking religion to celebrate the last one, but what I'm really trying to say to a good number of you breaking in the new top guys is that I've been there! I feel your pain, and I know exactly what it feels like to start out with so much uncertainty, so many expectatios, all the while worried that you're teetering on the edge of the abyss and one man, ONE MAN, can pull you out of its gaping maw. The equally dark flip side to all of this is that little voice in the back of your head, a tiny tiny TINY needling voice somewhere in your subconscious that tells you that one day very soon, the honeymoon will be over.


A coach's best friend, especially if they like being drawn and quartered.

This brings us to the first round of The Odds: Which fanbase sharpens the pitchforks first?

Star-divide

You know, SEC, I'm looking squarely at YOU, but its just not that simple is it?

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Comments

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Can’t believe you don’t have Kirk Ferentx in there yet. Even without the rape allegations. Big $$, awful record even worse discipline with his players

by Hoosierdaddy on Jul 23, 2008 10:21 AM EDT reply actions  

Episcopalian.

Katholik.

by UgasTexan on Jul 23, 2008 10:27 AM EDT reply actions  

What are the odds for Tommy Bowden if he doesn’t win the ACC?

by hobeg8r on Jul 23, 2008 10:34 AM EDT reply actions  

I don’t see how Tommy Bowden doesn’t top any list of coaches in the hot seat. (Of course, prognosticators might be getting tired of putting him up there every year.) If he doesn’t win the ACC or win 10 – 11 games this year, with this schedule, the Clemers will definately start calling for his head. Especially with a top 10 preseason ranking.

by charlestowne on Jul 23, 2008 10:39 AM EDT reply actions  

Ferentz should be on a different list:: “coaches who know what they’re doing.” He’s executing Iowa’s descent into mediocrity to perfection. He must have taken some vocational classes at the “Bobby Bowden school of lowered expectations” since he’s realized the following three tricks to keep his job:

1) Discipline problems grab headlines from records. When people are bitching about the discipline system of the program, which could be generously described as “prison-rules”, there’s not enough space for that AND complaining about the record for the past three years.
2) Solid recruiting rankings, despite lowered output on the field. This gives the fan base immediate optimism about one month after the season’s conclusion. This helps quell the native’s angst over a bad season better than anything else, and bridges the gap to the hope generated by spring football. And the most important thing…
3) Don’t lose too quickly. Descend into the cellar of your respective conference, don’t plummet. A 6-game win/loss turnaround is much more palatable over a 3-year period than it is from one season to the next.

by rjsplow on Jul 23, 2008 10:42 AM EDT reply actions  

LSUfreek should do a lurking Danny Ford peering over the stands into Frank Howard Field.

by yoyofutbawl on Jul 23, 2008 10:44 AM EDT reply actions  

No Tommy T? You know that pesky BOT is always trying to get him gone!

by SEC Supremacist on Jul 23, 2008 10:53 AM EDT reply actions  

Episcopalian? Why don’t you take off the kid gloves and just call him a Baptist?

by White Speed Recieiver on Jul 23, 2008 10:54 AM EDT reply actions  

The Kid only rated one coach on a hot seat, our old pal Charlie Weis. No first year coach will get the axe. Petrino will never get fired, because he’ll leave for another job before they can can him. Charlie will show improvement, if only because he can’t be any worse. ND expectations should be pretty low, but you will still hear some hope for a BCS bid.

Tommy Bowden, Bobby Bowden, Kirk Ferentz and JoePa are on the hot seat. Dadgummit Bowden will quit or be forced out after another mediocre season and Fisher in place to take over. JoePa will either die on the sideline or just not be renewed at season end. State Penn knows it has do go forward after another underwhelming season. As for Tommy & Kirk, previous commenters have touched on the sense of urgency for both.

by Crabapple Buck on Jul 23, 2008 11:02 AM EDT reply actions  

And if Washington has a brain, Ty Willingham will be unemployed and teeing off soon also.

by Crabapple Buck on Jul 23, 2008 11:03 AM EDT reply actions  

The last video is fantastic… and more true that most people in this country realize.

by socalbryan on Jul 23, 2008 11:03 AM EDT reply actions  

That last video wasn’t especially funny… until the guy shows up with the bag of oranges.

by DC Trojan on Jul 23, 2008 11:11 AM EDT reply actions  

No Ralph Friedgen? If the Terps go 5-7 or 6-5 this season, I predict there will be a lot of angry turtles. As it is, Fridge has been bleeding in-state recruits to Penn State and Rutgers, which has not pleased the Maryland home faithful.

As for Tommy Bowden, there might indeed be a roar for his job from Tiger fans, but he just got an extension, making a buyout pretty expensive. Plus, his recruiting is going very well. I predict he survives anything but a complete meltdown.

Finally, Al Groh at UVA might find things getting warm for him if the Hoos are not heard from this season.

by Alpha Wolf on Jul 23, 2008 11:13 AM EDT reply actions  

arrrrr – everyone knows them Alabama fans will be sharpening their pitchforks and heating up the tar if Lord Saben don’t bring home some Tiger meat in Nov

They pays him a mighty large chest o’ booty and expect him to “beat your’n with his’n”

by Pirate Petey on Jul 23, 2008 11:45 AM EDT reply actions  

The obvious firing has to be Mike Stoops.

by hobeg8r on Jul 23, 2008 11:51 AM EDT reply actions  

Which begs to question…which came first,
a winning program with a losing coach, or a losing program with a winning coach?

Or a winner with a coaching problem, or a coach with a losing problem? Converse quietly amongst yourselves

by Mr. Pelican Pants on Jul 23, 2008 11:53 AM EDT reply actions  

At almost any other Pac-10 school, I’d put odds at 3:2 for Mike Stoops. Except that, I don’t think Arizona fans (actually, “casual observer of Wildcat football” is a more precise description) are going to get too riled up over him. There’s a mindset in Tucson that UofA will be bad to mediocre for the foreseeable future, Stoops or no Stoops.

by Mark D on Jul 23, 2008 11:58 AM EDT reply actions  

Honestly, I think any coach with the last name
“Stoops” should go ahead and line his underwear with
Icy-Hot, just to get used to the feeling of the hot seat…

by Mr. Pelican Pants on Jul 23, 2008 12:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Pelican -

My take:

“Winning program w/ a losing coach” Burp, ND/Chollie The Hutt

“Losing program w/ a winning coach(es)?” Fits the USChikins/SOS-Loooouuuu to a tee.

“Winner w/ a coaching problem?” Bammer pre-Satan

“Coach w/ a losing problem?” Anybody who is dumb enogh to be head coach at Michigan State.

by yoyofutbawl on Jul 23, 2008 12:16 PM EDT reply actions  

how does Try not make the list? or is it a foregone conclusion that he is already fired?

by fife in the bay on Jul 23, 2008 12:19 PM EDT reply actions  

I can’t tell if this is serious or not, but good lord is the section on RichRod stupid. First of all, Michigan fans do not have especially high expectations generally. We have some pretty low self-esteem for being fans of the winningest program in history. Alternatively, this can be described as “realism,” something that is completely foreign to Notre Dame fans who are forever bragging about their future accomplishments and have a hard time squaring 3-9 with “but G-d wants us to win!”

Second, Michigan fans have come to expect average coaching in the post-Bo era. It’s not like the bar is set especially high.

Third, Michigan fans understand quite well that the offensive line is a hodge podge of players who couldn’t beat out the starters from last year’s mediocre unit. We understand that the quarterback isn’t a good fit for the most recent iteration of the RR offense. We understand that the offense lacks the supply of short, fast people needed to properly run the spread bone. We understand that the safeties are a huge question mark. Again, we’re a detached, realistic bunch. Something about the secular humanism that Bill O’Reilly is always bitching about, I guess.

In sum, most Michigan fans are expecting 8-4. 7-5 won’t be met with too much derision. Yeah, people won’t be happy if we aren’t winning big in three years, but THAT’S TRUE OF EVERY MAJOR PROGRAM. No coach has a license to be mediocre for years. (But see: Paterno, Bowden, etc.) I can say quite confidently that Michigan fans are not irked about RR having to pay a buyout to WVU, unless Michael Rosenberg = all Michigan fans.

In sum, don’t dream up dissent and dissatisfaction where none exists. We’re not ND Nation. We aren’t assuming that a bunch of sophomores are about to go 10-2. We’re too busy naming our sons “Barwis.”

by Michael on Jul 23, 2008 1:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Tommy B. always seems to get off the hotseat by beating the gamecocks at season’s end.
Which makes me wonder, would another .500 or thereabouts season (ending in a loss to Clemson) heat up SOS’s seat in Columbia?
And would the visor’d one even notice on the golf course down the road in Augusta?

by Will (the other one) on Jul 23, 2008 1:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Michael from Michigan is an idiot. Most TRUE Wolverine fanzzz KNOW we are going to go 13-0 this year and there’s no doubt about it! Can’t wait to pound OSU into the GROUND this year. I think I speak for the rest of the Michigan Faithful when i say MICHIGAN IS BACK! ! ! Our skill players are SICK and we are chock full of talent! RICH ROD HOO-AHHH!! Ryan Mallet? WHO NEEDS HIM?!? It’s all about the speedy QBs baby! We got the next Pat WHITE!

It wouldn’t be a Michigan post without mentioning how much ND SUX and how delusional their SHITTY fans are! Let’s see if you can score a touchdown this year with Jimmy “the Ostrich” Clausen! Good luck turdboyz! Now that’s something Michael and I can agree on! Oh yeah, Charlie Weiss is FAT!!

Git ready to git pwn’d, Tressel! You might want to bring an extra set of Pampers, because we are gonna make you dump in ur pantz this year!! Im calling it now: UM 31 OSU 6….in ur face, Pryor!

-Barwis

by Barwis on Jul 23, 2008 2:39 PM EDT reply actions  

21

I hope you were tryig to be sarcastic. If so, bravo, hilarious post.

If you were actually serious (and judging from what I’ve heard talking to the Michigan fans I know you are) then get ready for a surprise. The reason the odds are set at 5:4 are because of what you just said, “most Michigan fans are expecting 8-4.” If that isn’t lunacy, I don’t know what is. As you so eloquently stated, “the offensive line is a hodge podge of players who couldn’t beat out the starters from last year’s mediocre unit … the quarterback isn’t a good fit for the most recent iteration of the RR offense … the offense lacks the supply of short, fast people needed to properly run the spread bone … the safeties are a huge question mark.”

Expect that bowl streak to come to a screeching halt this year. Seriously, make sacrifices to the gods if UM reaches 6 wins.

by Nick on Jul 23, 2008 2:47 PM EDT reply actions  

“Michael from Michigan is an idiot.” Seconded. I’m not really sure why he’d bring up Notre Dame — twice — in a post about Michigan. Normally, I’d let that shit go, but stupid people bother me.

Michael, Notre Dame fans have no trouble understanding last season’s debacle. The team was young and not very good at football. In many games, including the one against Michigan, I’m not even sure that Notre Dame was playing football, at least in the “blocking,” “tackling,” and “gaining yards” senses.

Second, Notre Dame fans never expected a team of sophomores and freshmen to go 10-2 (or 11-2 or 10-3). We hoped, certainly, but we both know hope springs eternal in August. But the media was sure quick to jump Notre Dame’s and Weis’s shit when that team of sophomores and freshmen played like a team of sophomores and freshmen. It was a fucking strawman.

Honestly, we ND fans are in the same situation as you describe for Michigan’s fanbase: 8-4 (plus a bowl win, for the love of God) will be a triumph, and 7-5 (again, plus a bowl win, even if it’s the Diamond Almond bowl or the Weedeater bowl) will not be met with too much derision.

by The Song of Hiawatha Francisco on Jul 23, 2008 3:07 PM EDT reply actions  

Hey Michigan has THE Sam McGuffie……guaranteed win vs. tOSU , he is the white Noel Devine minus the kids

by Mr. Pelican Pants on Jul 23, 2008 3:53 PM EDT reply actions  

If Mr. McGuffie tries that “leaping shit” against DIV. 1 defenses, he will soon be known as Mrs. McGuffie.

/I actually enjoy watching his highlights.

by hunglikehussain on Jul 23, 2008 5:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Where’s the Burger Thief? Bowden’s successor is already named and the team is going to suck…

by Chaimy on Jul 23, 2008 7:22 PM EDT reply actions  

>> “Coach w/ a losing problem?” Anybody who is dumb enogh to be head coach at Michigan State.

I wish I could disagree. There’s hope that Dantonio can solve that problem, but after the debacle against Michigan last year I’m just hoping he’ll at least learn from his own mistakes, since he didn’t seem to learn from his predecessor’s.

>> Ryan Mallet? WHO NEEDS HIM?!?

I realize your post was a total spoof – except that this is, if last year’s performance was any indication, absolutely true. Mallett would have been the most hilariously inept QB in the nation last year (despite occasional flashes of competence) if not for Jimmy Clausen. Henne played better with his arm falling off.

by SpartanDan on Jul 23, 2008 8:18 PM EDT reply actions  

For a second there I thought I was on the wrong blog, given the uncharacteristic oscillation between first person singular/plural. The royal “we” prevailed in the end, though, so all is as it should be.

@8 – Because he’s rarely seen carrying a (read: “The”) book.

by Crawtater on Jul 23, 2008 8:28 PM EDT reply actions  

The hottest seat in the SEC is Fulmers, and I expect him to survive. I look for Spurrier to bolt to a better program or retire after another disappointing season with the Cocks.

by Mark on Jul 23, 2008 9:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Mrs. Mustain? If you are going to insult the woman, at least get her name right. Hint: It’s not Mustain.

BTW, the real problems who were Nutt and Broyles have been eliminated. And fans are well aware of the tough upcoming year given the lack of talent Nutt was able to recruit AND retain, especially on defense.

by Jim Grizzle on Jul 27, 2008 10:51 AM EDT reply actions  

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