ECONOMISTS MAJOR IN DUH STUDIES
Economics and college football take the chalk and cheese route of relation, since most people would be happy to pull blinds and ignore the ugly piles of money that make the sport work in both good and bad ways. But we’re more than happy to loll in it, especially because it allows a C student in Econ like ourselves to point and laugh when Professional Economists write things like this:
Our estimates imply that recruits’ decisions are governed by a handful of primary factors, among them the school’s recent football rankings and the geographical distance between the recruit and the college. Also, those schools that are members of conferences affiliated with the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) are found to have a significant recruiting advantage compared to other institutions.
USC should be able to get whomever the hell they want. Now gimme a grant!

The Economist: pure bitchy cold awesome. Economists? A mixed bag.
If we were able to pay taxes line item-style, we’d opt out of this kind of academic research. Economists should at least be doing more interesting research in Duh Studies, since if you’re going to be telling me things I already know (your instincts, now backed up by data!), you might as well be like the economist in Freakonomics who hung out with crack dealers and got a good story out of it in the process.
In the meantime, we also await this year’s results of the College Football Recruiting Prediction Model, a project put together by three economists who manage to correctly predict 68% of recruiting outcomes. As stated by Duh Studies experts above, the single most important factor in deciding a school? Proxmity to home. So if a recruit’s hedging and you’ve got money on it or something, just crack out Mapquest, and do the mileage. It’s one of the reasons we can’t believe Omar Hunter’s going to Florida–Georgia’s closer, and the numbers back a Dawg bet over a Gator.









1
Allahver Fist says:
The SEC is the speediest conference because all the slow mothers in the South abort their babies.
January 17th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
2
macker says:
Awww mannn!!!!!!! He got that published? The same journal turned down my mathematical analysis of recruiting. Here, I’ll give you the abstract:
X + Y + 300Z = RL (recruit likelihood)
where X = campus location
Y = rooting interest of recruit
Z = miscellaneous. This includes, but is not limited to money, girls he meets at the campus visits, text messages from coaches, money, cool nods from the staff assistant coaches during his pre-contact period, bowl success, money, ability to major in sports management/general studies/criminal justice, money, size of athlete tutoring center, size of weight room, size of stadium, money, quality of dining hall, ability to sell back books at the end of semester, whether books are necessary in the first place, money, number of luxury boxes in the stadium, quality of fake radio broadcast with recruit scoring the winning touchdown, and money.
I’m currently working on a cross-validation study. Regardless, this formula, like all other products of genius will only be appreciated years in the future.
January 17th, 2008 at 12:52 pm
3
yoyofutbawl says:
Mangino based his college choice on proximity of the athletic dorm to the nearest Burger King.
January 17th, 2008 at 12:57 pm
4
The Conscience of a Nation says:
Allahver Fist-
Interesting theory, but unlikely; they’d need to be able to run to a blue state to access an abortion provider.
January 17th, 2008 at 12:59 pm
5
DevilGrad says:
I thought “300Z” referred to the likelihood that a booster would give the kid a sports car.
Not that the Devil Children are likely to be athletic recruits, but early returns suggest that *distance* from home is likely to be a critical factor in their college choice.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:01 pm
6
kleph says:
The Economist is also the holy grail for foreign freelance reporters. get that string and you are set, baby.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:15 pm
7
Brian O'Blivion says:
It’s one of the reasons we can’t believe Omar Hunter’s going to Florida
This will now be the “insider source” on thousands of recruiting message boards, creating another feeding frenzy. Nice job!
January 17th, 2008 at 1:17 pm
8
DevilGrad says:
Re #6: Until you get busted for plagiarizing a Ugandan newspaper. (See the Economist’s corrections from a few weeks back.)
January 17th, 2008 at 1:23 pm
9
Will (the other one) says:
Ah The Economist – magazine of choice to read in public places if you want to attract a more discriminating gold-digger type.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:25 pm
10
Out of Conference says:
I’m pretty sure that somewhere the answer to solving recruit decision making lies in bits of riddle buried in songs on the albums, Whisper Tames the Lion and Death Row’s Greatest Hits.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:36 pm
11
Allahver Fist says:
TCOAN, do you really want to go toe-to-toe with the 1995 St. Johns County High School District Junior Achievement Economics Champion? Those tightwad fuckers at Nease High (that’s Tebow’s Nease, motherfuckers) wouldn’t fund a trip to State, which is why I’m currently not getting my toes sucked at Wharton these days.
Please address me as Dr. Professor Fist.
January 17th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
12
The Conscience of a Nation says:
Not really, Dr. Fist, though a debate between a frustrated Econ Champion and a former Latin club historian/2-time Academic Team MVP would be fascinating, I’m sure.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
13
HeadThief says:
Due to the Fulmer Cup popularity, I’m sure these guys will be updating their formula to incorporate “my hosts got busted for pot on my recruiting visit and I didn’t”..remains to be seen whether it’s a positive or a negative in the formula.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:03 pm
14
Coop says:
My high school did not offer Latin, and I am still angry about it.
Obsolete and lost language, my white ass.
Where does English come from?
January 17th, 2008 at 2:16 pm
15
Michael says:
As a Domer, then, I have to ask: how does ND have the kind of success recruiting that Weis has had for the last two years, and that Holtz enjoyed previously? I’m assuming here that ND is about as corrupt as any other given college that’s competing for the recruits, and the facilities are about as nice, maybe slightly worse than others. (Except Oregon. We can’t hold a candle to Oregon. Holy shit they have a sick locker room.)
I mean, let’s go through this list:
Whether the athlete made an ?official visit? to a specific college: Most of the recruits did this.
Whether the school is in a BCS conference: No
The distance from the high school athlete?s hometown to a specific school: Generally pretty far, given the remote northern Indiana location.
Whether the recruit is in the same state as a specific school: Usually not.
The final AP Ranking of a specific school in the previous year of competition: Unranked
The number of conference titles a school has recorded in recent years: None
Whether the school is currently under a ?bowl ban? for violating NCAA rules: No
The current number of scholarship reductions a school faces for violating NCAA rules: None
The size of the team?s stadium (measured in terms of seating capacity): Average
Whether the school has an on-campus stadium: Yes
The current age of the team?s stadium: Fairly old
On the whole, ND doesn’t seem to hold up very well. So what’s the explanation?
January 17th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
16
Mr Pelican Pants says:
#14
The only Latin I know, I learnt from “Tombstone” via
Doc Holliday
January 17th, 2008 at 2:19 pm
17
Herb says:
This former 4th grade elementary school geography winner would like to point that he has been known to read The Economist on occasion (the occasion when we get it for free or are really, really bored in an airport) and that he totally got hosed by the refs in the 6th grade middle school geography bee.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:20 pm
18
Mr Pelican Pants says:
#15
Its the Holy Grail of colleges for Catholic kids….and there are a shitload of Catholic kids running around since Catholics have no birth control, especially the Irish kind…..and you get to meet up with other Catholic school girls, get naked, then go to confession the next day and start all over with another chick. At least thats what Donnie McDougal and his 5 brothers told me before going to ND……
January 17th, 2008 at 2:23 pm
19
Michael says:
#18
Trust me, I’m well aware of the Irish phenomenon…I’m working on my 14th year of Catholic education right now. But that still doesn’t explain the recruiting.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
20
Mr Pelican Pants says:
And also, That Dog thinks that all black people are Catholic but dont know it, they just dont go to confession as much and sing louder during Mass
January 17th, 2008 at 2:25 pm
21
DevilGrad says:
Re #14: Where does English come from?
http://www.cam.ac.uk/admissions/undergraduate/courses/asnc/index.html
January 17th, 2008 at 2:27 pm
22
Papa Lou BSU says:
“On the whole, ND doesn’t seem to hold up very well. So what’s the explanation?”
Um, that sweet-ass ethanol plant smell?
It’s either that or Macri’s. I’m stumped.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:33 pm
23
Rival says:
Proximity + School standing + Cadillac = Committed Recruit!
I think that used to be the equation.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:35 pm
24
Boston Frog says:
“Also, those schools that are members of conferences affiliated with the Bowl Championship Series (BCS) are found to have a significant recruiting advantage compared to other institutions.”
Whaaa? The guy who presented the trophy at the BCS title game told me that all 11 1-A conferences were part of the BCS. You mean… You mean to tell me that some of us AREN’T part of the BCS? That there’s some sort of inequality there? Well, this is shocking…
January 17th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
25
NewAZTiger says:
#14 – Recruiting rankings are made by recruiting magazines to sell….magazines. ND will always be in the top 10 because the fanbase is large enough and stupid enough to believe recruiting rankings.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:43 pm
26
Brian says:
Please understand most people with economics degrees like me look at something like Freakonomics and laugh and say: “Wow what an asshole, he made a book out of doing simple linear regressions and then assuming causality out of correlation.” AKA: he threw some numbers into excel and wrote a book about it – which is as lame as Glen Dorsey after a particularly nasty chop block.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
27
Out of Conference says:
Well, as someone that was once offered $5 a question in school by his econ professor to come up with questions for a textbook on econmics he was co-authoring, I still say it has a shitload to do with how much weed, ass, coin, and ride a recruit thinks he can get on his way to the NFL.
January 17th, 2008 at 2:53 pm
28
The Conscience of a Nation says:
Oh come on now Brian, he may have used SPSS!
January 17th, 2008 at 3:12 pm
29
Will (the other one) says:
Why are recruits going to ND? It seems there’s a sizable chunk of Top 150 players that are just dying to be featured on NBC’s “Hey our production values are straight out of the 80s, early 90s” broadcast 7-8 times a year.
“Every game you play looks like ESPN Classic” says Frontbutt Charlie.
January 17th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
30
daviehamsufferer97 says:
Explain ND’s ranking in 04/05 then 25. here they are:
Class 2005 Rankings
1. Southern California, 2. Florida State, 3. Tennessee, 4. Oklahoma, 5. Nebraska, Tie 5. Michigan, 7. Iowa, 8. Miami-Florida, 9. Georgia, 10. California, 11. Texas A&M, 12. Ohio State, 13. Auburn, 14. Florida, 15. Virginia Tech, 16. Texas, 17. Alabama, 18. Virginia, 19. Arizona, 20. LSU, 21. South Carolina, 22. Clemson, 23. Maryland, 24. North Carolina State, 25. Penn State, Tie 25. Arkansas, Tie 25. Purdue, Tie 25. UCLA.
Class 2004 rankings
1. Southern California, 2. LSU, 3. Florida State, 4. Miami-Florida, 5. Michigan, 6. Oklahoma, 7. Georgia, 8. Florida, 9. Ohio State, 10. Texas, Tie 10. Tennessee, 12. Texas A&M, 13. Oregon, 14. Penn State, 15. Michigan State, 16. Alabama, 17. Maryland, 18. Washington, 19. California, 20. Purdue, 21. Missouri, 22. Washington State, 23. Kansas State, 24. Auburn, 25. Boston College
January 17th, 2008 at 3:50 pm
31
UTEx says:
Wow. They got paid money for that study???? I should have gone into economics instead of web/graphic design.
#14 Mine did. I was lousy at Spanish (hate the language, my state (Texas) being over run with it…I’m a badddd liberal), but loved Latin. Great stories and you only had to translate, no pronunciation. Latin is extremely helpful when you are in the art museums and you need to read the writing on all the old silver. Also, I easily impressed my friends at UT because I could read and translate the words on the buildings around campus. Some of my friends played football at UT so it didn’t take much to impress them. (’Hope they don’t read this blog…) The rest of us actually got in because we were in the top 10% of our class at competitive high schools and not because we could run the 40 in 4.5, bench press 350, etc.
January 17th, 2008 at 4:11 pm
32
kleph says:
Until you get busted for plagiarizing a Ugandan newspaper. (See the Economist’s corrections from a few weeks back.)
this, i hate to inform you, is the way foreign journalism is done.
January 17th, 2008 at 4:40 pm
33
oc phil says:
#14 My ex-wife was going to take Latin in high school as an independant study, but the teacher got busted for murdering another teacher and her kids. And the principal got taken down for armed robbery of a Sears.
It was apparently quite a school.
January 17th, 2008 at 4:57 pm
34
Herb says:
#26, please understand, Mr. Levitt thinks about people like you, laughs, then returns to counting his money.
January 17th, 2008 at 5:24 pm
35
robert says:
TCOAN:
It’s all about the STATA9. Or R.
January 17th, 2008 at 7:07 pm
36
bevo says:
Brian @26. I do not think Levitt put that much effort in his analysis. In reading his book, I am pretty sure he inserted his hand into his large intestine via the anus opening, and gently tugged. His leaps of logic in the conclusions are wider than the Grand Canyon.
We’ve all had a good laugh over Freakonomics and the people who quote it.
Robert and TCOAN: As a good, pompous PhD jackass, I must point out that SPSS and R are statistical software packages. And, as everyone knows, real researchers use SAS..
January 17th, 2008 at 10:17 pm
37
Brandon Lang says:
Check out “Super Crunchers” by Ian Ayres, a buddy of the guy who wrote “Freakanomics”. It’s a good discussion of the regression movement.
Took Latin in high school as a freshman and was knee deep in hot senior girls for the whole year.
January 18th, 2008 at 8:41 am