BUYS AND SELLS: WEEK SIX
Hannibal and Orson issue the stock report for the week that will be in college football based on the weekend that was. Remember: all advice given for entertainment purposes, by which we mean you should totally blow your porn allowance on mock-stock hedge fund speculation involving college teams. Hannibal will add his expanded summaries in a bit.
Orson’s Buys
We give props to Rich Brooks.Kentucky For the nth week in a row, stock up on Rich Brooks’ Patented Energetic Oatmeal for Hip Oldsters Seeking Vim, Vigor, and Vitality, because Kentucky may be the class of the SEC East. (The keyboard just singed our fingers as we typed that–is that a Mac/Windows thing?)
No one except South Carolina in the SEC East defends the pass well, and they provide a natural complement to this strength by showing little inclination or desire in defending the run. Kentucky, despite the press hyperfocusing on Woodson, has the second best rush attack in the conference with Rafael Little, already flush with 547 yards rushing and the balance to their passing game. They’re balanced, they make adjustments, and they’re hitting a conference-wide dearth of talent in the secondary at the perfect time, which means their ninth-ranked defense only has to hold serve a few times to make things competitive.
(Again: the smell of burning flesh when typing…normal or not?)
LSU
If college football is to have order, there must be a Leviathan.“During the time men live without a common power to keep them all in awe, they are in that conditions called war; and such a war, as if of every man, against every man.–Hobbes, Leviathan.
Oh, it’s dire times when you drag out the Hobbes. But there’s nothing left to believe in! NOTHING! Mutants wander the wastes. Oklahoma loses to Colorado. In two weeks, Rutgers, West Virginia, and Louisville all collapse like so many propped-up Papier-mâché 1989 Soviet satellite states. Florida loses with Master Chief at the helm (too many brutes!). Even USC struggles against a Washington team that, star-wattage wise, is a but a flickering, snapping flurorescent bulb of a team compared to USC’s 10 million candlepower searchlight.
For certainty’s sake…for Captain America…for Baby Jesus and Powerade. If Florida must get pummeled two weeks in a row, at least give us the sweet gift of certainty in the process. Let LSU be the Leviathan. And for fuck’s sake, don’t let it be the kicker who decides it. Beat us by thirty, LSU, or lose. At least that way, we get a victory along with our dizzying college football anarchy and disorder.
We’re buying out of hope that at least “certain doom” still has some brand name value. As long as Glenn Dorsey hunkers down at the line and his huge, mean ass looms like the black sun of hell setting on the forlorn landscape of the damned…well, there’s hope for doom, then.
Missouri. Yes, we’re gonna get Pinkellated when they drop a big game they’re supposed to win. It’s a matter of time. Yet try to pick anyone else in the Big 12 with any certainty and see where you get. Kansas? K-State? You stick your hand in that bear trap, Johnny Crackers, ’cause we’re not losing an arm over this. We’ve lost a finger or two going out on a limb for the Tigers before. That’s a pain we’re familiar with, and we’ll take it.
Indiana. Will be 5-1 going after the Minnesota game this weekend. Terry Hoeppner lives on through the work of an undermanned but tough team and their brilliant qb toiling in obscurity, Kellen Lewis.
Hannibal’s Buys
Florida State. I imagine Xavier Lee represents a genuine Faustian bargain for an offensive coordinator, who must trade his soul to the demon of unpredictability in exchange for an unlimited supply of raw talent. This may or may not be the case for Jimbo Fisher, depending on the number of incredibly athletic picks Lee throws before Drew Weatherford has to shuttle back in to play safety net with the screen passes, but I would have made the decision to go with stick with Lee a long time ago, once it became clear Weatherford , like Chris Rix, wasn’t improving from his up-and-down freshman campaign, only growing more boring in his ineffectiveness. Either way, if the defense showed up as it did against Alabama, the thoroughly mediocre Coastal division is ripe.
Illinois. [Redacted] has by all appearances redacted his team’s penchant for blowing winnable game after winnable game, as the Illini actually pulled out a victory against a worthy opponent Saturday it had every opportunity to lose in the fourth quarter. Besides blaming the entire sorry episode on Anthony Morelli, which is a reasonable thing to do, but Juice Williams, Rashard Mendenhall and receiving adonis Arrelious Benn are molding into a viable “Big Three” at the skill positions. This is perhaps less reasonable, but I was just waiting for one real win to jump on the Illini bandwagon, and if the goal is to buy low, I don’t think it’s going down any time soon.
Orson’s Sells
Georgia Tech. After a stunning victory over Clemson–holding Spillerdavismechagodzilla to no tds–it only stands to reason that Georgia Tech will, per the rules of Chan Gailey Equilibrium, immediately drop this game against Maryland in College Park. There’s little rhyme or reason behind this thinking other than the supposition that as streaky and unpredictable as Maryland can be, Georgia Tech is infinitely less dependable, even with Tashard Choice pounding out nasty, effort-filled yards up the middle for the Jackets. To roll with Chan Gailey as a value stock is to give your brilliant cousin the college fund to invest in his internet startup. You may end up rolling in ducats with five naked babes in a Dubai hotel room. You may end up rolling in refuse in a Mumbai gutter. You will not, however, end up in between these two scenarios.
Oregon This pains us physically to write this, since Oregon had seemed too lethal to this point. However, some plays snap your brain into irreparable pieces as a collective, and fumbling at the one and into the endzone to finish the Cal game may be that. Yes, it’s a fuzzy psychological explanation, one that requires the assumption of a mindset, which has not stats and nothing empirical to back it up. We’re still riding it. Recovering from such a thorough, deep kick to the nuts requires some vomiting, deep breathing, and serious, serious toughness from a team about to face a breathless Pac-10 schedule. A fractured soul is hard to recover from as a unit, and that’s precisely what Oregon suffered.
(We cannot type this enough: losing like that makes us want to weep for Oregon. No ironies here–just a license to poundon your chest and wail like a Greek grandmother for what happened to them. We’d post a clip, but we don’t have any tissues lying around at the moment.)
Hannibal’s Sells
Texas. No offensive line=disaster, but the most troubling thing about the Horns is that they have no identity on either side of the ball. Are they really very good running? Passing? Rushing the passer? I think Texas can still stop the run on defense, and otherwise is a completely mediocre team all the way around. I was fairly quiet about my doubts re: Colt McCoy as a central playmaker coming into the season, and I wish I hadn’t been. Without a running game (which, despite a couple backs I still think of as very good, Texas does not currently have), he seems overwhelmed.
Alabama. Ditto John Parker Wilson, I guess. I still believe Bama has problems on defense – Florida State scored three touchdowns, after all – but Saturday was the first time I felt the Tide had really holed back up inside the offensive shell it knows and loathes. The team can’t score on a respectable D (all it will face from here on out, except Ole Miss) until its back is against the wall, and that’s only worked once.
Penn State. Ditto Anthony Morelli, I guess. Black Shoe Diaries laid it down on Morelli immediately after the Lions’ loss Saturday:
With Penn State within one score of taking the lead or tying the game, the last four drives all entered Illinios territory. They ended interception, interception, fumble, and interception. All on the head of Anthony Morelli. Four times the Nittany Lions had a chance to take the lead or tie the game. Four times Anthony Morelli blew it.
I don’t really have anything to add to that, except to ask, who outside of PSU fans is surprised by Morelli’s failure? Not me. I’m only surprised the defense looked so helpless against Benn.
Orson’s Holds
Florida. The pass defense sit around like track and field officials, and on Saturday night, Brandon Cox threw a javelin into them. No pass rush, no pass defense, and no ability to diversify the attack outside of Tebow smash. Florida law prevents us from handing off to running backs, in case you didn’t know it. Look it up: it’s in the criminal code, man.
Still ridiculously talented. Still ridiculously young. The variance on quality of game with this team is still nigh-immeasurable: one game, they’ll be mediocre (Ole Miss), another, unstoppable (Tennessee.) And occasionally, they’ll just shit the lair altogether, as they did Saturday night.
Texas Such a phenomenally talented, pampered, and otherwise gloriously potentialized athletes can’t perform this badly unless under the sway of some kind of organizational malaise, which is all we can really guess is going on with Texas. Colt McCoy has no iron run game to stand him up, leaving him to overextend and make the kind of gut-ripping errors that led to 4 interceptions against K-State. The defense and Iowa State coach Gene Chizik are now both looking across 843.2 miles and realizing they’ve both made a terrible mistake.
Hannibal’s Holds
Florida. I thought Auburn executed an outstanding offensive gameplan against a young defense Saturday, and the UF offense was more efficient than anyone seems to be willing to recognize. Tebow spent too much of the game on the sideline while the Tigers milked the clock, and still only lost on a ridiculous last second kick. I don’t think that setback was any more damning than the loss at Auburn last year (maybe less, actually), and the offense remains much better off in Tebow’s hands than in Chris Leak’s. Reserve judgment until we see what happens at LSU.
Oregon. Given Oregon’s recent past, a loss like Saturday’s could be the start of a schizophrenic spiral, but the offense has too many weapons to fade away. Of all the stocks that still look like blue chip options, this is the one that still requires the most extreme caution.
Oklahoma. My expectations are that the Sooners rebound this week and make a scorched earth march back to the BCS with championship aspirations until the bitter end. But Sam Bradford finally showed his vulnerable side, which, while a hit with the ladies – and freshmen are so susceptible to the manipulations of the fairer sex, aren’t they? The gullible, pick-tossing bastards – is not so good for a winning football team. Still the best team in the Big 12, but that doesn’t appear to be worth much and maybe worth even less in another month.









51
marcillac says:
15, 20
LSU played like absolute crap and given the quality of opponent no way should they have been moved ahead of USC based on that. Having said that, at least they had the excuse of playing Tulane between OBC and UF while USC was playing a descent Washington team on the road with no tough game anywhere on the horizon and had not way to explaing the flaccid demonstration.
I dunno about the LSU O-line but the looked like world beaters against OBC and its hard to imagiine the athletecism of Tulane got to them unless they were looking straight past them at Harvey and company.
The defense is talented, Pellinied (he must have been thinking Tebow for weeks) and pissed and shold be able to pull the Tuberville – give or take 50 yeards. The offense should clearly beable to score on UF with some semblance of accuracy from the QBs.
LSU 31 – UF 17.
Or they swallow some uncooked wild boar Les Miles pulls out a masterpiece and its UF 29-10
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:34 pm
52
Janus09 says:
42
The Ducks outgained Cal because they had to? That’s some great analysis there. No, they outgained them because they were able to, but just not by a wide enough margin (1 yard short) to overcome turnovers and beat them.
Overall, the Ducks looked better moving the ball on offense. They both had 6.6 yards per pass play, but Oregon had 4.9 yards per run to Cal’s 3.5.
Cal won due to turnovers and the Ducks stupidly conceding the special teams battle to Cal with repeated short kicks. The 3 of the 4 turnovers were extremely fluky (Fumble over the goal line, tipped ball, and special teams miscommunication) and when your saying who wins in a best of 10, that stuff gets thrown out. What doesn’t get thrown out is that Cal couldn’t run and Oregon could.
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:35 pm
53
The Ghost of Ingle Martin says:
I’m still a little baffled by this whole “LSU at night” mystique. Has there ever been any research on this topic that shows LSU has a better record at home at night than during the day (after controlling for quality of opponent, etc)? Although the Gators lost in 1997 (Doug Johnson could be inconsistent at any time of day) , they beat ‘em in 1989 (the Galen Hall swan song) in the last two times they played in there at night. And I seem to recall UAB beating LSU in Baton Rouge at night in 2000. That result alone should have put the “LSU at night” mystique to rest.
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:36 pm
54
marcillac says:
51,
Since 1960 something like a 770 winning perdentage at night v. like 470 during the day. I would imagine the atmosphere gets them motivated and if THEY believe in the mystique it probably gives them the added smigen or confidence and poise.
Not dispositive but beneficial, all other things being equal.
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:55 pm
55
MiseanAuFan says:
#46,
Auburn has been to the Sweet 16 4 times in Men’s Basketball (1 Elite 8), most recently in ‘02-’03, losing to eventual NC Syracuse by 1 point.
Not much to brag about, but just sayin’.
October 2nd, 2007 at 1:56 pm
56
MiseanAuFan says:
marcillac, you were close:
“Since 1960, LSU is 202-59-3 (.771) at night in Tiger Stadium compared to a 19-22-3 (.432) record during the day over that span. ”
http://www.lsusports.net/ViewArticle.dbml?DB_OEM_ID=5200&KEY=&ATCLID=177159
Please ESPN, pick up the UA/UT game on 10/20.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:08 pm
57
The Ghost of Ingle Martin says:
OK, I found this from last year: “The facts show that since 1960, LSU is 198-59-3 (.761) at night under the lights compared to a 19-22-3 (.466) mark in Tiger Stadium during the day.”
But this is because LSU schedules all of their games at night by default (much like the generic UF scheduling of 1:00), and the only games they play at home during the day are those dictated by TV scheduling in which they play a high quality opponent – note that’s 260 night games vs. 44 day games. 44 day games over 37 years is barely 1 a season.
Any team that schedules in this manner is going to have a wide day vs. night disparity if the only teams they play during the day are top 25-type teams.
The stat I’d really like to see is their record at home vs. ranked teams during day and night.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:14 pm
58
anon says:
Don’t see why anyone would think UF could go to Red Stick and beat the Bayou Bengals.
LSU has looked great against everyone they’ve played with a pulse, and even stomped MTSU for good effect. Tulane was an absolute trap game (b/w USC and UF), and was treated as such.
Since when is a great team winning by 25 on the road (say what you will, the game was in New Orleans) cause for concern? Now, a highly ranked team barely squeaking by an average team on the road…. that’s cause for concern, Trojan Fan. (if I ever meet a second one, I’ll add the “s”)
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:14 pm
59
The Ghost of Ingle Martin says:
Whoops..make that 44 games over 47 seasons, not even one a year.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:18 pm
60
doug in sf says:
Um, Justin Forsett, like Nate Longshore, has a sprained ankle. And he still made over 100 yards. Cal is really banged up and beat Oregon in Eugene anyway. 7 out of 10 on a neutral field, with both teams healthy sounds about right (Cal had three defensive starters out for the game too).
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:18 pm
61
marcillac says:
57,
Sure Tulane is meaningless per se but. As I say in 52 I do think that they are the better team right now and will win, perhaps by a comfortable margin. Still, given what happend last weekend and considering UF’s offensive fire power and and special teams explosivness one could see a few big plays, a return here and there, a few dropped or overthrown passes a little mismanagement from the coaching staff and who knows. Don’t think UF will pull it off but wouldn’t be shocked either.
Got to get back to my MAC clause.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:24 pm
62
Stacy Keibler Luvs Me says:
Trojan Fan(S), Plural:
#58-Anon-Besides me, you can add Joe McKnight of River Ridge, Louisiana to the long list of USCw fans!
Add the ’s’!!!!!!!!!!
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:29 pm
63
Raider Red says:
I was loving the first half of LSU-Tulane, and considered it karmic justice. People (I’m looking at YOU, ESPN) forget that while LSU did have to move a home game right after Katrina, Tulane’s ENTIRE ATHLETIC DEPARTMENT had to vacate the premises for the better part of a year. I’m not sure if sports at Tulane, aside from baseball, will ever recover. So it was sweet to see the 9-7 score, albeit briefly.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:29 pm
64
Raider Red says:
Addendum: I don’t recall Idaho ever being in the game with USC. Miles is right, they’re not a top five team right now.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:31 pm
65
Erik says:
I love how doug basically ignores all points in favor of Oregon, and instead just repeats his previous position. Of course, he’s from SF. I shouldn’t be surprised by Cal homerism.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:33 pm
66
Janus09 says:
60
You can’t fall back on the “we were banged up” defense. And getting to 100 yards on 3.5 per carry is nothing to be proud of. Oregon runs the spread and just lost a wideout (Paysinger) for the season prior to this game, so they aren’t completely healthy either.
Both teams are tough, its 5 out of 10. Vegas said as much with the Ducks as a 4.5 pt favorite.
4.5 points sounds about right for Autzen’s homefield advantage.
Honestly, I like Cal and hope they run the table now. But to act like they weren’t fortunate with the turnover margin is crazy and a bit conceited. You guys got away with the W, don’t act like you would like to play Oregon again this year.
October 2nd, 2007 at 2:48 pm
67
El Hombre says:
Orson: I highly doubt that Mizzou will lose to Nebraska, mostly because it’s a night game with rain in the forecast. The last time that happened was 2003…and that night the Tigers tore ‘em down and took the posts to Harpo’s.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:00 pm
68
oc phil says:
As a neutral who watched the Cal-Oregon game I’d give the edge to Oregon, but it is slight. Both are very good teams.
I think Washington isn’t being given enough credit regarding the USC game. This was a team that was ahead of tOSU at the half and beat Boise State. Yes USC has more talent but some of the USC penalties and injuries (which had a major effect on the game) were due to the intensity of the Washington team and crowd.
I also thought the officials were a bit flag happy. Either that or they made some make-up calls against Washington later in the game to offset some earlier dubioius calls against USC.
The one USC player who had a bad game was Stanley Havili. If he made the catches he usually does (and does hit one up for an interception) then USC would have stayed number 1. He wasn’t the only reciever who was dropping balls though.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:28 pm
69
tzubear says:
Buy Oklahoma- they will finnish in the top 5.
Buy Florida and sell LSU- Pope Urban is a much better coach than Les Miles. Though experience is on the side of LSU’s players, talent is about equal. I give the edge to UF because of coaching.
Sell Uconn and Cincy- both will lose at least two games to USF, WV, Louisville, Rutgers, and/or each other.
Sell UCLA- they will be lucky to finnish 5th in the Pac-10.
Buy Arizona State- will finnish 3rd or 4th in the Pac-10
Hold USC- They won on the road while losing two starting OL and a CB in the first half and had 3 turnovers. They still significantly outgained the huskies and were penelized almost as many yards as UW gained.
Sell Illinois- Iowa is not that good and they are coached by…whats his name?
Buy Ohio state- even though they are no longer cheap.
Hold Mich State- This team appears to have its soul back under new coaching. I dont think they will fold.
Buy West Virginia- they run the table until bowl season.
Sell USF- they are good, but not great. Will lose 2 games this year(before bowl).
If you still have them sell Rutgers- they have won vs. patsies only.
Sell Kentucky- tjhis week or next will be the apex.
I have not yet figured out the ACC. Its a %&$ mystery to me.
October 2nd, 2007 at 3:52 pm
70
Stacy Keibler Luvs Me says:
OC Phil: I would say that JD Booty was the main cause of USC’s bad game against UW. His throws were way off all day probably due to the wet weather, or slick football, as he said in later interviews. Havili had to constantly go after passes thrown either high or in back of him. Normally, he might catch those, but with the rain and wind, he could not pull them in. Overall, I think it was a good learning lesson for USC that will come in handy when they go to those rain happy LOUD stadiums of Oregon and Berkeley.
October 2nd, 2007 at 4:08 pm
71
oc phil says:
Agreed that JD Booty was off. And the conditions were bad. But there were still enough balls that the WR’s would have normally caught that would have changed the perception of the game had they pulled them in I think.
And losing the (true freshman) center to injury was particularly disconcerting I’m sure. Those problems with the fumbled snaps when Spanos came into the game and his leg brace was catching his arm brace would have to mess with the mind of any QB. And the only other alternative at center was Byers, which would have meant changing around 3/5 of the OL on the fly.
So I’m willing to cut JDB some slack regarding this game.
October 2nd, 2007 at 4:34 pm
72
tzubear says:
It still amazes me PC started a true reshman at CENTER, one of the most complex positions on the field. I think Urban Meyer would be the only other coach who would do this. Granted, O’Dowd showed he deserved the start (and then some), but I am amazed.
October 2nd, 2007 at 5:09 pm
73
dajo9 says:
Cal beat Oregon at Oregon. There isn’t much else to add. It was a close game. I was impressed by Oregon’s ability to slow (not stop, but slow) Cal’s running game. Any Cal fan knew this would be a tough game. And Cal won – with a good field goal taken away from them and with our quarterback injured and unable to throw in the back half of the 4th quarter. Great game Bears! Great game!
October 2nd, 2007 at 5:16 pm
74
BJ and The Bear says:
The Gators were completely exposed and almost no one seems to have recognized it. Auburn was there ONLY test this year and they just happened to fail it.
“If you still have them sell Rutgers- they have won vs. patsies only.”
And so has Florida. They face their first defense ranked in the sixty and they are held to 17 points. They ain’t playing Troy this week. LSU is more experienced, more talented, more battle tested and better coached.
LSU in a rout.
October 2nd, 2007 at 5:24 pm
75
oc phil says:
#72 Tzubear: I think it was a matter of need. I think if Spanos had never gotten hurt before the season started then it would have been tough for O’Dowd to see much playing time. And when O’Dowd went down at Washington it was clear that the coaching staff wasn’t planning on putting Spanos into the game unless it was an emergency ( I’m sure they would have discovered the problem with the braces with some practice snaps).
The races are heating up in both the SEC and the Pac 10. At this point I think the frontrunners in either conference could be upset, maybe by a couple of teams.
October 2nd, 2007 at 6:16 pm
76
werewolffan says:
florida doesnt have the horses to keep up with lsu. a qb, and a good WR just aint gonna cut it. UF defense blows- see Auburn and OLE FRICKEN MISS. Dont let the Tulane game fool you- it was a glorified bye week and was treated as such. LSU has dominated teams like Virginia Tech and SC- making teams create miracles for first downs while offensively moving the ball at will. UF has been less than impressive. UF doesnt have the players to compete with the monsters on the LSU squad. Its gonna be a massacre.
October 2nd, 2007 at 6:36 pm
77
sycasey says:
Agree w/ dajo9 (#73) — Oregon fans aren’t taking into account that the Ducks were playing at home. I don’t think you can seriously claim that Oregon was at a greater disadvantage, relative to its normal strength, than Cal was. They had fewer injuries, they were at home, they got the borderline calls in the first half. And relative starting position for the offenses DOES have an effect on total yardage, like it or not.
Are turnovers lucky? Sometimes. But the fact that Cal had none was NOT luck, it was a measure of discipline. The two interceptions were Dixon making bad reads, period, and the fumbled kickoff was Oregon being sloppy. So maybe Cal got lucky, but it’s also possible that the Ducks’ mistakes were part of their nature (remember their turnover-fest last year?) and that nature finally showed against a tougher opponent.
These two teams are close, I’ll admit. Oregon moved the ball well, but their sloppiness and poor special teams strategy and/or performance killed them in this game. I’ll revise my prediction to Cal winning 6 out of 10 times on a neutral field, with both teams at full health.
October 2nd, 2007 at 8:13 pm
78
west coaster says:
Prior to the last few comments (73 and 77), the discussion regarding the Cal-Oregon game was veering toward silliness. Who would win on a neutral field? Who entered the game with the most injuries? Who had the highest average yards per carry? Who cares.
This is all you need to know about the game: In arguably the toughest venue west of Baton Rouge, playing a team that had scorched every prior opponent this year, and down by seven points entering the second half, Cal scored or nearly scored (i.e., a questionable missed field goal) on virtually every posession prior to Longshore’s injury. In the end, the team with the bigger cajones prevailed.
October 3rd, 2007 at 12:34 am