IN PRAISE OF EFFICIENCY. OR NOT.
It's the philosopher's stone of college football: the search for the perfect statistic to explain wins and losses, the ultimate wavering-quavering digit that could (aside from the score) point to broken part for the mechanically minded coach to replace and thus have the perfect win-manufacturing machine.
And like the philosopher's stone, that digit does not exist. Apart from the finally tally of points between teams playing in a single game, there's no single stat that explains it all, despite the efforts of a thousand statisticians to create one. Even the usual suspects frustrate expectations.

Like turnover margin, for example--if I give you the ball more often than you give me the ball, I should lose almost all of the time, no? Glen Mason, unemployed football coach, disagrees. Tops in turnover margin from the good end of the spectrum down from 2006:
1 Minnesota
2 Boston College
2 Kentucky
4 Brigham Young
4 Michigan
6 Wake Forest
7 Nevada
7 Western Mich.
9 Syracuse
10 Boise St.
10 Rutgers
A list of very good teams, yes. A list of top-tier monsters? Hardly, especially in the glaring cases of Minnesota, Syracuse, and Kentucky. We'd also like to note that coaching personality=stats here: there are some world class crotchety Matlock-watchers here, including Rich Brooks, Lloyd Carr, old-before-his-time Tom O'Brien, HOFer Chris Ault, and Jim Grobe. (As for Bronco Mendenhall and the bombs-away BYU offense...um, Mormon thrift, we guess?)
You actually have to do something with the ball in order to win. Even Methusalan geniuses like Ralph Friedgen, whose football education spans as diverse an ecosystem of gridiron thought as there is, can only come up with one stat that comes close: the 12 percent rule.
The statistic is derived by adding a team's interceptions, fumbles, dropped passes, sacks and penalties during a game and dividing that by the team's total number of offensive plays. The key is to keep the result under 12 percent -- meaning that the team is committing a human error on 12 percent or less of its plays.
It's Six Sigma for the shoulder pads set, but even then it's only hovering somewhere around a 90-95% effectiveness rate for predicting victory. When you have eleven variables interacting with eleven variables, each with a different task, route, assignment, and the ever-slippery element of human er-ROR involved, 90-95% may as close to holy as any grail-stat can be.
(Speaking of holy--holy hell, how in the fuck did Maryland win nine games last year?)
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Hmmm….statistics. Maybe if statisticians weren’t busy following boring sports like baseball we’d have some more quality football stats. The difference in quality and quantity of stats you can get from one sport to another is glaring.
by Herb on Aug 14, 2007 10:56 AM EDT reply actions
Sample size is a problem. 162 games versus 12 in a season means your numbers will mean far less, and have far more potential variance.
In football, it’s very possible for a very talented team (see LSU 06) to lose two games. If they played 162 games, there’s no way LSU wouldn’t have been in the title game last year.
by Orson Swindle on Aug 14, 2007 11:00 AM EDT reply actions
It’s not as stupid as 6-sigma, which is the 0.00034% rule.
Orson, with a liberal arts education, how do you know about all this engineering stuff? You make physics references all the time and now six-sigma. Must be hanging out with Tech grads.
by wilbur on Aug 14, 2007 11:01 AM EDT reply actions
Correct me if I’m wrong, but isn’t one of Orson’s degrees from Tech? I didn’t realize he did have a liberal arts education…
Oh, and Alabama/Auburn threadjack, courtesy of Deadspin:
deadspin.com/sports/building-dreams=252C-one-luxury-condo-at-a-time/youre-doin-a-heckuva-job-bama-289144.php
by Beatuofa on Aug 14, 2007 11:05 AM EDT reply actions
I have a similar rule. Except it’s called the 12-INCH rule, and your mom knows about it.
by Hook'em Tide on Aug 14, 2007 11:07 AM EDT reply actions
“It’s Six Sigma for the shoulder pads set.”
Six Sigma? Isn’t that the special kind of G.I. Joe?
by McBain on Aug 14, 2007 11:15 AM EDT reply actions
I’m pretty sure a team’s YAC average closely correlates with W-L record.
Just kidding. It’s really VORT (Value Over Replacement Team) that best reflects the W-L. For instance, Florida’s was 7.34 a year ago, and no team has won a title with a VORT below 7.0. Am I making this up? Probably.
by Biggus Rickus on Aug 14, 2007 11:16 AM EDT reply actions
Fucking econometrics. That prof was a C-bag.
However, this rule is kinda ghey…I mean obviously you’re probably going to win most times as long as you don’t make too many mistakes. Ralph Friegen must live in Obvioustown on No Shit Street.
by Brian on Aug 14, 2007 11:21 AM EDT reply actions
Six Sigma: and excellent process to develop efficiencies and transform normal people into arrogant pricks.
by Allahver Fist on Aug 14, 2007 11:21 AM EDT reply actions
Biggus, you missed a golden opportunity there… the stat should have been JORT
by PeterPumpkinhead on Aug 14, 2007 11:22 AM EDT reply actions
Peter, that’s why I don’t have a funny blog.
by Biggus Rickus on Aug 14, 2007 11:23 AM EDT reply actions
edsbs…..cheesecake, bunda, mustaches, ncaa football, all other sorts of funny shit, and math????
i’ll keep checking back until the next post is up.
by gerry dorsey on Aug 14, 2007 11:30 AM EDT reply actions
I come here for a good laugh and what do I get? I get Isaac Newton’s principles of conservation of momentum and G.I. Joe Sigma Six references.
What the fuck?
by Bully Van De Graaff on Aug 14, 2007 11:32 AM EDT reply actions
Actually, according to my father after 13 beers, the key to winning is the result of not having a bunch of girl scouts and/or cocksuckers on defense.
by Oops Pow Surprise on Aug 14, 2007 11:48 AM EDT reply actions
Steve Slaton just scored another touchdown on Maryland. A 96-yard run where he broke 15 tackles. I know, crazy, but that just happened.
by Edsall is God on Aug 14, 2007 11:58 AM EDT reply actions
Because that what Maryland does! Crab cakes and Football!
by ness on Aug 14, 2007 12:02 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t think Ian has recovered fully yet from the giftwrapping Virginia did for Maryland last year, propelling Under Armour U to nine wins and cooling the Fridge’s seat.
by Stormy on Aug 14, 2007 12:04 PM EDT reply actions
Amazingly enough, ness, those are also Ralph Friedgen’s two loves. In that order too.
by NDTom on Aug 14, 2007 12:06 PM EDT reply actions
Friedgen’s totally pulling that ‘rule’ out of his sweaty blunderbuss. His real strategy has more to do with defending some kind of homestead.
by Allahver Fist on Aug 14, 2007 12:06 PM EDT reply actions
I wouldn’t call it Six Sigma for the shoulder pads set; but you’d be literally right one with Two Sigma. 95% of all data are within two standard deviations in approximately normal distribution. But as you mentioned, the sample size hurts here.
That said, SYRACUSE was in the top 10 for turnover margin???? That confuses me more than Maryland winning 9 games last year.
by John F on Aug 14, 2007 12:12 PM EDT reply actions
When asked what he thought about the rule, Steve Spurrier replied “Click, Clack.”
by NDTom on Aug 14, 2007 12:12 PM EDT reply actions
You know what else wins a lot of games?
Officiating.
by jebushchrist on Aug 14, 2007 12:23 PM EDT reply actions
I only hope that there are some Twerp fans on EDSBS, because they can lament with me on the sheer God-awfulness that was the Clemson/Maryland game from last year, and the 2004 Clemson/Maryland “tilt.”
Both games were just painful to watch, we split those two and won the ’05 version, and in both contests I was just waiting for the end so that I could drink some more.
I blame the 12PM ESPN curse. If it is the 12PM JP game, we get ready for that shit, as does everyone else in the conference.
Conversely, this is how Maryland got their 9 last year, beating us in a horrible, horrible, game.
by Coop on Aug 14, 2007 12:24 PM EDT reply actions
Yes Maryland did win 9 games last year. I watched nearly every game and I still don’t know how.
It’s good to be back in time for football season!
by Nupe in VA on Aug 14, 2007 12:35 PM EDT reply actions
#23
That was Conference USA officiatiing, for what it’s worth. You haven’t seen bad officiating until you’ve been served by Jack Fucking Childress.
by Allahver Fist on Aug 14, 2007 12:48 PM EDT reply actions
My only cognizant memory of Maryland football is just before the 2001 Orange Bowl against UF.
The announcers were just getting warmed up for the opening kickoff when, clear as a bell, their mic picked up, “F%CK THE GAY GATORS!!!”
Every single person in the room with me stopped what they were doing, looked around sheepishly and the air became littered with, “Huh? What the f%ck? Did you hear that? Who was that guy? How did that make it on-air?”
Pretty zany stuff. The rest of the game was pretty boring as Grossman came off the bench (curfew punishment?) and lit them up for six or so straight touchdown drives.
by DHC on Aug 14, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions
Jack Childress is dumber than a box of hair and about as useful as tits on a bull.
I hate, oh how I hate, that POS SOB.
I am convinced he has naked pictures of John Swofford with a 12 year old boy.
by Coop on Aug 14, 2007 1:08 PM EDT reply actions
#21, the answer to Syracuse’s turnover margin lies in a spectacularly shitty offense. If you go three and out on almost every series, there’s very little time for you to actually turn the ball over, and lots of time for your defense to pick up turnovers.
by rusty on Aug 14, 2007 1:57 PM EDT reply actions
15 – I’m still laughing, dude. Funny comment.
by Out of Conference on Aug 14, 2007 2:11 PM EDT reply actions
I go to maryland and even I don’t know how we won all those games. I remember leaving the games vs. some directional school in TN and FIU thinking about how long the year was going to be and then having this feeling reinforced at the WVU games. then we won nine games by an average of like, 3 points. we rule.
by lisa on Aug 14, 2007 10:23 PM EDT reply actions
IIRC, Miami had the best turnover margin in the country during our dream season in 2003.
And since the plural of anecdote is data…
by Chuck on Aug 15, 2007 2:17 AM EDT reply actions

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