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Around SBN: The Amateur Mathematics Of Linsanity

FIGHT OR FLIGHT: RUNNING QBS VERSUS PASSING QBS

One of our favorite sites sights (dammit) in all of college football around the turn of the '00s was watching quarterback Dave Ragone leave brain cells and soul points all over the field while playing quarterback for Louisville. Why was Ragone's energy meter getting knocked down by multiple bars as we watched pre-MSU disaster John L. Smith's Louisville teams shock FSU and begin the Cardinals ascendance from C-USA to the Big East? Because Dave didn't slide, you simpering little nancy.


I'm gonna get hit? Ok, that's cool.

As in never. Ever. Ragone went shoulder first into every hit he took, a practice which resulted in hits where visible, atomized bits of brain matter shot from his eyes, ears, mouth, and most spectacularly, his ass. Ragone would actually look progressively dumber over the course of the game--we would have paid Adrian Karsten (god rest his tax-cheatin', suicidal soul) good money to play him in Connect Four over the course of the game. First quarter: Dave wins in three moves. Second quarter: Karsten thrashes him in six moves.

Fourth quarter: Ragone's eating the chips.

This refusal to slide met its match in one of the most dismal Thursday night games we've ever watched, a 2002ish matchup versus Colorado State with Bradlee Van Pelt at quarterback for the Rams, another non-slider brain damage fiend who rocked the mullet pre-hipster revival and had a face like a disgruntled vampire bat.

Star-divide

Monsoon rains, zero offense, and no fewer than 15 collisions that had the NTSB investigating each one--all of that led to a 6-3 score, three hours of dismal viewing, and, shockingly, two upright quarterbacks at the end of the game.

Leading us to our thesis statement: we don't think running quarterbacks get injured any worse than drop-back guys. Knee-jerk Jerry Sportsradio guys may opine the fate of running quarterbacks like Tim Tebow all they like, but we propose that in the end, true running qbs face an overall risk of injury than passing qbs. You may not want them on your Odyssey of the Mind team afterwards, sure. But they'll probably be in better shape than your average Wooden Indian Chris Weinke-type after the game.


Contradictory point: Weinke was durable as hell! Helps to have FSU's offensive line, too.

As a test slice, we've taken the Big 12 from 2006, one of the few conferences with a really nice split between systems employing classic drop-back passers and combo, spread-option-y type run/pass threats. (We tried the ACC first, a complete failure since the ACC favors the dropback qb almost exclusively...which may be a comment on the conservatism of the league as it stands overall, and is another piece entirely. But in summary: their qbs are on couches compared to the Big 12)

Looking at the Big 12 just last year, the numbers in terms of lost man-quarters are:

Big 12 QBs:

Dropback:

Baylor: Bell, three games (ACL)
Kansas: Meier, four games (shoulder)
KSU: Freeman/Meier no games
Nebraska: Taylor, no games
Oklahoma: Thompson, no games
Texas: McCoy, one game
Texas Tech: Harrell, no games

Running:

CU: Bernard Jackson: no games (154 rushing attempts)
ISU: Bret Meyer: no games (137 attempts)
Mizzou: Daniel, no games (147 attempts)
OSU: Reid, one game (119 attempts)
TAMU: McGee, no games (146 attempts)

Yes, it's thin-slicing, as it's just one season out of a hundred or so on the books, and no indicator of anything resembling conclusive empirical truth. Yet...one game total for the runners, and seven for the dropback guys. Factors? You've got a trove of them: offensive line protection, the individual conditioning of an athlete, acts of god, etc. They all matter.

However, the physics are on the side of the running qb most of the time, since not only are they bringing momentum to the table, they have more of a choice on where and how to disperse that momentum. The dropback qb has little choice on this, with their only real options being a.) attempt "roll with it," a very difficult maneuver with a high d20 roll attached to it, or to scramble blindly and risk an even larger hit on the run, since onrushing defenders have microseconds longer to build up even more hitting power.

Ask our lawya Eric Crouch if you don't believe us:

Note that in our little micro-survey, the most durable dropback guys play in quick-toss systems: Texas Tech and Nebraska, Leach/West Coast play-calling schemes that call for the ball to be out in eyeblinks. The germ of this whole thought came from the hopes of SEC fans re: Tim Tebow, Florida's baby rhino of a quarterback who will play a full season of college ball for the first time in 2007. He's playing in a system that's not contact averse or particularly dawdly with the ball: option runs, quick passing, and misdirection are the MOs of the spread option.

If the slice of the 2006 Big 12 and our residual memory is any indication, Tebow may be safer if he runs more, rather than standing in the pocket and waiting for impact. The truth of quarterback durability at the collegiate level may be counterintuitive: it's not about avoiding punishment, but managing it intelligently at the margins. And sometime that, oddly enough, may mean seeking it out from under center rather than avoiding it altogether.

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Comments

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That’s a matter that doesn’t only apply to quarterbacks, Mr. Swindle. Jerome Bettis altered his style of running after his first couple seasons in the NFL because he wasn’t managing his contact very well, and he was threatening to run himself out of the league before his rookie contract was up.

Jerry Sportsradio has a point about QB’s avoiding contact when they’re dumb enough to seek it out or stand still in the pocket for more than four seconds in a row. Most running QB’s are smarter than that about taking hits, and survive a lot longer.

by Oops Pow Surprise on Jun 7, 2007 12:11 PM EDT reply actions  

“. . . Bradlee Van Pelt at quarterback for the Rams, another non-slider brain damage fiend who rocked the mullet pre-hipster revival and had a face like a disgruntled vampire bat.”

Amen to that. I enjoyed watching that kid. Roethisberger played with a similar mindset at Miami, but he was big enough to knock over most college defenders anyway.

by DevilGrad on Jun 7, 2007 12:14 PM EDT reply actions  

Vince Young has still never taken a hard hit.

Vince Young.

by PB at BON on Jun 7, 2007 12:15 PM EDT reply actions  

Size matters. That’s something we should have put into the sketchily arranged formula here.

Jared Lorenzen endured hellacious punishment during his time in the SEC. Being big as a Narwhal helped.

by Orson Swindle on Jun 7, 2007 12:16 PM EDT reply actions  

Running QBs do live longer as long as they use common sense. Look at it in a fighting aspect. If you know you’re going to get punched, you’re not going to get knocked out that often. Sure, there are a few Trevor Berbicks and Sonny Listons out there, but for the most part you won’t get knocked the fuck out. But if you sit back there and don’t get ready to get hit, sooner or later you’ll end up getting Brasic’d or Theisman’d.

by Brewster Crew on Jun 7, 2007 12:20 PM EDT reply actions  

When you know how to get hit it hurts less.

I would imagine that most of those running QB’s are more agile and flexible. Thus, they don’t pop an ACL anytime a defender looks at their legs.

Running QB’s are also a pain in the ass to deal with on any edition of NCAA Football.

by BDoc on Jun 7, 2007 12:23 PM EDT reply actions  

Hate to do it, but… sites versus sights?

by Jonathan on Jun 7, 2007 12:25 PM EDT reply actions  

Corrected, AfDawg. We type very quickly.

by Orson Swindle on Jun 7, 2007 12:27 PM EDT reply actions  

I gotta stop reading this post right now and fess up that I went to the world finals in that Odyssey of the Mind shit 2 years in a row – 4th and 5th grade bitches. No one can defeat my balsa wood structures. Year one was at U of MD, and year two was at Iowa State, and even in my youth I knew both were dumps. There was no year three because our town got asked to stop competing due to shear dominance, no lie.

Anyway back to the football:
Reggie Ball was a running QB with no common sense. I think drop back passers are better than scramblers, because scramblers don’t have patience. They just run at the slightest hint of danger. Drop back passers are unfazed, and sometimes complete passes sitting down, like Tom Brady did once for the Pats.

by Brian on Jun 7, 2007 12:31 PM EDT reply actions  

Its not so much about the big, Head-Wound Harry style injuries so much as the little nagging ones — the (dreaded) high ankle sprains, pulled groins, sprained shoulders, fingers and stuff of that ilk that can limit a quarterback’s effectiveness.

Plus, its kind of like the old saying that you’re safer flying than driving. Yeah, planes may crash a lot less than cars do, but you don’t tend to walk away from a plane crash like you might a car wreck. Running quarterbacks might not get hurt as much as pocket ones, but when they do get hurt it tends to be a bigger pain in the ass.

by Billy in Baton Rouge on Jun 7, 2007 12:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Or head. Shoulder. Whatever.

by Orson Swindle on Jun 7, 2007 12:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Doesn’t the injury level depend on who is playing safety as well? I mean reggie nelson/greg blue (insert hard hitting safety here) is much more likely to tear a running QB apart than the drop back guy hiding behind the line.

by Jonathan on Jun 7, 2007 12:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Kerry Meier was very much a running quarterback last year, though the degree to which that was due to the shoulder injury vs. his poor/undeveloped passing skills is still a matter of debate among (the few) serious Kansas football fans.

by hoopinion on Jun 7, 2007 12:40 PM EDT reply actions  

Roethisberger played with a similar mindset at Miami, but he was big enough to knock over most college defenders anyway.

It’s one of the great tragedies of the Internets that neither YouTube nor Google Image Search has a visual of Roethlisberger going headfirst into Marshall’s Gladstone Coke and knocking him on his ass to convert a 4th-and-14 on a scramble from the opening drive of the shoulda-been-66-to-6 game back in 2003.

by Chuck on Jun 7, 2007 12:47 PM EDT reply actions  

“Ragone would actually look progressively dumber over the course of the game–we would have paid Adrian Karsten (god rest his tax-cheatin’, suicidal soul) good money to play him in Connect Four over the course of the game. First quarter: Dave wins in three moves. Second quarter: Karsten thrashes him in six moves.”

I don’t entirely remember the game, but I thought the board was empty when you started. Pretty damn impressive to win Connect FOUR in 3 moves.

by Geaux Irish on Jun 7, 2007 12:47 PM EDT reply actions  

(not trying to nitpick in my previous post)

by Geaux Irish on Jun 7, 2007 12:50 PM EDT reply actions  

“Its not so much about the big, Head-Wound Harry style injuries so much as the little nagging ones…”

That’s Massive Head-Wound Harry.

Make complete SNL references, please.

by Rival on Jun 7, 2007 12:52 PM EDT reply actions  

ah the running QB…I miss you so Matt Jones

by Jerkwheat on Jun 7, 2007 12:55 PM EDT reply actions  

I don’t believe I’ve ever seen Pat White slide. Then again, defenders are usually chasing him from behind.

by Paco on Jun 7, 2007 1:10 PM EDT reply actions  

Here is the real question:

 If you could be a drop back passer or an Athletic QB what would you be???

Anyone who played NCAA football on PS2 with Antwon Randel El at Indinan should know the correct answer.

Way more fun to be the athlete. Spread options, jukes, half back passes….. the list could go on and on.

by Odell 51 on Jun 7, 2007 1:32 PM EDT reply actions  

  1. Actually, Vince Young took some pretty good shots early in his college career, including one against KState that messed his ankle up for a couple of games.

by Cincy on Jun 7, 2007 1:36 PM EDT reply actions  

You’re dang right size matters. Miss. State’s starting QB, Michael Henig, played at around 5’-11", 185 lbs. He broke his collarbone. Twice. In the same season.

Video proof: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aJYFJG1XWSY

Supposedly he wieghs 215 lb now, but do we really want him to be slower?

by Travis Swenson on Jun 7, 2007 1:45 PM EDT reply actions  

The guy from Tech did well at Odyssey of the Mind? I am shocked.

I remember participating in those things and hoping we would get done with “practice” early so that we could go play basketball before my mom picked me up.

I missed attending the semis of the ACC Tournament one year because of that douchebag competition.

I will burn in hell before I force my son to attend to one of those things over a sporting event.

That is just not kosher.

by Coop on Jun 7, 2007 1:49 PM EDT reply actions  

Coop’s right. Yea I know that shit wasn’t cool guys, but I figured I’d fess up anyway, to see if there were any other fellow wanks in the audience. At least it was pre-puberty so it didn’t take me down in that respect.

Honestly I was surprised someone else had even heard of the thing.

by Brian on Jun 7, 2007 2:15 PM EDT reply actions  

So Florida is going to win the MNC again this year. Tebow will win the first of his 7 Heisman Trophy’s.

Is that the logic behind this research?

by KT on Jun 7, 2007 2:18 PM EDT reply actions  

But during Young’s junior and senior year, I only remember one real hard hit….

That was Ohio State at the Horseshoe where he was wobbly woblly. Aside from one time getting his bell-rung, Vince avoids hard hits

by Hook'em Tide on Jun 7, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions  

How could you NOT include the video of Matt Ryan getting hit by the Clemson defender?!

by Alex L. on Jun 7, 2007 4:22 PM EDT reply actions  

I was at the NU-Iowa game. E. Crouch won the starting QB title after that hit. The whole stadium watched that corner get mashed.

Eric almost left the program that summer (few people know this) because Bobbby Newcombe was favored that spring.

Glad he stuck around. Sad that he never got a NC.

by 'BoroHusker on Jun 7, 2007 4:23 PM EDT reply actions  

“Contradictory point: Weinke was durable as hell! Helps to have FSU’s offensive line, too”
Clarification: FSU’s old offensive line. The current version will kill you faster than making out with Andrew Speaker.

by JoesDeliGatorTail on Jun 7, 2007 4:38 PM EDT reply actions  

Being a Georgia fan who watched D.J. Shockley get hurt before the 2005 Florida game, I feel like we do much better when we’ve got a drop back passer. Stafford can run like a mother, but fortunately for us, he seems to enjoy sitting behind the line and throwing the bomb.

Also, Florida fans still need to be sending thank you cards to Arkansas for hurting Shockley. God, we should have owned you that game, and of COURSE he gets hurt the game prior to the showdown in Jax…

by blackertai on Jun 7, 2007 6:37 PM EDT reply actions  

Tommie. Frazier.

That is all.

by Land of Os(borne) on Jun 7, 2007 6:55 PM EDT reply actions  

  1. “God, we should have owned you that game…”
    Have you watched any of the Florida-Georgia Rivalry for the past, oh, say 18 years?

by Ltrain on Jun 7, 2007 7:33 PM EDT reply actions  

Like a lot of science research, the outcome reflects the predisposition of the author a great deal of the time.

It will be interesting indeed to see UM’s option versus the greatest and fastest defenses in CFB.

Final thought, Tebow is going to get rocked in October in Baton Rouge. Hard rocked, like me whupping Orson at Guitar Hero at my tailgate. It will bear striking resemblence to this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l77XWzi26q0

Kind of appropriate the grim reaper is in that video. Tebow will end up fast friends with him when Glenn Dorsey and the rest of the Fightin’ Tigers are done with him.

by LSUJoshua on Jun 7, 2007 7:48 PM EDT reply actions  

#32,

 I’m assuming you mean Urban Meyer when you say UM?

 Have you not been watching college football the last two seasons?
 Did you see Florida win the national championship?

 Meyer’s offense is doing fine.

by Beergut on Jun 7, 2007 9:34 PM EDT reply actions  

If you think Leak was the embodiment of Meyer’s spread option, you are not the fan of football in general, and possibly Florida in particular, that you think you are, Beergut.

by LSUJoshua on Jun 7, 2007 10:19 PM EDT reply actions  

First of all, not to nitpick even more, but it’s eight games lost to the injuries to the drop-back QBs, not seven.

Now, to a couple of points that are actually relevant to the debate: I think it would be more interesting to figure out if these QBs were injured by being hit (granted, the most likely scenario), by throwing a pass at a bad angle or what.

Second, the sample is horribly skewed by the fact that two of the drop-back QBs accounted for seven of the eight games lost to injury … and there are two more drop-back QBs than running QBs in the survey.

You also have to consider that any injury that does occur to a running QB — especially a leg injury — is even more devastating because he needs to be closer to 100 percent to run an offense effectively.

However, I will grant that running QBs have one big advantage over drop-back QBs when it comes to injury: They’re probably less likely to get injured because they can run away. What would worry me about Tebow is that he’s just as likely to run into someone. Which might be okay and less likely to cause permanent brain damage in C-USA of a few years ago than in the SEC of today.

by cocknfire on Jun 8, 2007 1:09 AM EDT reply actions  

IF we really are talking about Tebow here, then the great thing of this is that we all get to sit back and watch and find out, what will happen, you know, how we watched and found out that Urban was way over his head in the SEC, or that Leak would never win anything, etc.

by Ltrain on Jun 8, 2007 11:54 AM EDT reply actions  

  1. - Ltrain.
    you know UGA would have wooped ya’ll’s if they had D.J. Shockley playing. The feild general went down a week before his biggest rival…I mean hell they almost beat ya’ll with their shitty back up qb.

by Downtown_Danny_Hunt on Jun 10, 2007 10:53 AM EDT reply actions  

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