PHIL STEELE PREVIEW: BULLISH ON BULLS

by Orson on Jun 5, 2007 12:55 PM EDT

Okay, in hot hand we have Phil Steele, and it is the usual beastly trove of data, info, acronyms, and VHT analysis you've come to expect from the guide. As the Cryptonomicon of college football, it has no rival in terms of scope, depth, and ability to cause ligament tears in your corneas with its tiny, tiny, eyescorching print.

It's here to teach you, Dave.

You should go out and buy it, since we can only summarize a fingernail's worth of the info contained inside. But in order to entice you, we'll give a few general bullish Steele trends Phil limns in this year's edition of the magazine we'll have to buy three times since we wear it out before the season even starts.

Phil's bullish on...

Florida State, grande. Citing the misused talent on the offensive side of the ball, the combo offensive coaching upgrade of Jimbo Fisher and Rick Trickett, and the return of Chesty Amato to Tallahassee.

He's a bit vague on FSU's difficult schedule, which includes the oddball road trips to Jacksonville (Alabama) and Boulder (Dan Hawkins' Awesome Zen Warriors Krue) and a trip to the Swamp, but all three are out of conference games sprinkled into a weak to middlin' ACC schedule.

USC. Well, sure. Their awesomeness is bankable now for both experts and five-dollar CFB rubes. And in the same department...

LSU. Less sure on this one, here, pun intended. Three years out from Sabana and two very successful seasons later, you'd figure a pundit of any sort would have more confidence in Les Miles' ability to conduct football operations at the D-1 level. And yet we remain skeptical, dorky white hat and all, especially with the implementation of a whole new offense in year one and burgeoning threats from Arkansas and Alabama. Less shiny happy on this prediction.

Missouri. The classic tease bet for the Big 12 North six years and running. Gary Pinkel's teams, like soggy bargain bin fireworks, only appear volatile before fizzling out in hail of injuries, mid-season losses, and just plain freaky bad luck. And yet you spend the grocery money on them because maybe--just maybe--they'll blow up in a fashion you find satisfying.

(What--you don't spend the grocery money on fireworks? We can't be the only ones.)

Gary Pinkel: large-foreheaded tease.

Again, Chase Daniels plays the Brad Smith role of this year's Pinkel temptress, and everyone who's been disappointed before by Missouri will hop giddily on again thanks to the continuing talent recession of the Big 12 North. Not an atrocious bet, but a bet nonetheless--and most definitely not an investment to bank on by any means.

USF. Suddenly everyone's polishing the IROC, cracking out the fat pants, and dusting off the Dokken tapes: Tampa is the rising hottness in the Big East, a trend Steele's all too happy to second. We credit the '06 WVU victory in Morgantown for this, along with a talented and well-hyped quarterback in Matt Grothe, who despite making a good number of highlights against Pitt's witless run defense can still honestly be called a very good quarterback.

Steele likes him, sure, but also the defense and the relatively favorable slate of games.

The PR shot of a lifetime awaits in week two, when they face Auburn, a team who under Tommy Tuberville has always been good for one early season somnambulation game. Auburn actually has two slots for this in '07: Leavitt's Bulls, and the Kansas State Wildcats.

Michigan. The returning offensive troika means a lot here: Hart, Henne, and Manningham all return for Mike Debord's offense, which hopefully will stick to the "scoring offense" for most of the year this year. So does facing Ohio State with a new qb in Ann Arbor, a favorable Big Ten schedule, and a defense trending upward despite the loss of gravitation-swaying tackle Alan Branch.

Georgia. The Bulldogs have cycled into one of those years where they only have three SEC road games: Alabama, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt. The rest of the schedule comes to Athens excepting the annual rectal exam in Jacksonville, which this year stands as good a chance of reversal as any in recent memory with Florida losing gouts of defensive talent and starting a relative n00b at quarterback in Tim Tebow. Matthew Stafford, cuddling aside, could be a ferocious qb, and Richt has had amazing success tutoring young quarterbacks into production very quickly. Phil likes 'em.

South Carolina.It's a two-way race for the SEC East between UGA and the 'Cocks, according to Phil. As much as there is to like about the OBC calling your plays, Steele outlines the defensive strengths of Carolina, accenting their depth, surfeit of returning starters, and the number of extremely close losses they had last year. Their road schedule is strictly hard hoeing, though: LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Georgia. Then again, Florida's was last year, too, and they went 3-1 through the worst of it on the way to the national title.

Hawaii. The WAC-ky fun pic of the year. Credit Colt Brennan and a weak WAC schedule for the pick--Hawaii's only real visible, obvious bump in the schedule comes in week 10 when they go to Nevada, where it will be cold, which may or may not be a word familiar to Hawaiians. Retooling Boise goes to Hawaii this year, meaning June Jones (holder of the best freakin' job on the planet) will likely have an undefeated team going into the BCS, barring a complete crack job on one of their conference games. Phil's banking on the schedule, a hold-serve defense, and Colt Brennan's perpetual motion machine of an arm to do the work for them.

As to why you should watch them, we can give it to you in five words...PASS PASS PASS PASS PASS!!!

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Comments

Love the 2001 reference. Does that mean that JoePa is the geezer in the bed?

by Geaux Irish on Jun 5, 2007 1:04 PM EDT reply actions

Fond memories of riding up to high school in the CRX while Rockin’ with Dokken. Fuck the cold weather and rain, I’m blasting the tunes with the windows down and “falling again, Into the FIRE!!!!”

by Soanky on Jun 5, 2007 1:06 PM EDT reply actions

1. FSU can lick everyone’s balls (and their co-eds can lick mine). They aren’t gonna do squat. (8-4 = squat)

2. I’m happy to see UGA will be going 0-3 on the road this year.

3. Grothe = Culpepper

by Brian on Jun 5, 2007 1:07 PM EDT reply actions

Given that four of those nine teams appear on Florida’s 2007 slate, what, pray tell, does Phil have to say about the Gators?

(I’m not being a smart-aleck, by the way; I genuinely want to know.)

by T. Kyle King on Jun 5, 2007 1:10 PM EDT reply actions

I’ve never seen another QB puke between plays like Brennan did last year – and still complete passes.

Maybe instead of the Run n Shoot, they could call their offense the Puke & Juke.

by BamaCPA on Jun 5, 2007 1:15 PM EDT reply actions

Re: Carolina – “Their road schedule is strictly hard hoeing, though: LSU, Tennessee, Arkansas, and Georgia.”
YIKES!

Phil Steele is HOT HOT HOT.
Now I have to leave the office for my lunch break and find a newsstand.

by GamecockTony on Jun 5, 2007 1:20 PM EDT reply actions

Want more Puke & Juke?

Here’s Riley Dodge of Southlake Carroll High puking, throwing a TD, and puking again on his return to the sidelines:

http://youtube.com/watch?v=TXMUj6cGZGM

by Orangeblood on Jun 5, 2007 1:23 PM EDT reply actions

I’m hoping that Mr. Steele gets an honorary siren this evening for his yearly kickass contributions.

His guide is the perfect reading material for when you’re hunkered down in America’s wang, dodging tropical cyclones and waiting for football season to start.

by BDoc on Jun 5, 2007 1:29 PM EDT reply actions

Yeah, Baby, How ’Bout ’Em TrojanMans Dept!!
(brutalizing the English language intended)

Phil “Nerdlinger” Scscheeele Ranks USC No. 1 – The only Pac 10 school in the top 10.

Hmmm, it looks like LSU is the only SEC school in the top 10………… Here is the top 10:

1. USC
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. West Virginia
5. Michigan
6. Texas
7. Louisville
8. Florida State
9. Virginia Tech
10. Penn State

by Stacy Keibler Luvs Me on Jun 5, 2007 1:34 PM EDT reply actions

Phil Steele is also HOT on VHT loaded Penn State…which makes me happy because he has the most accurate preseason magazine in the PAST SEVEN YEARS!!!!

Oh, did you know that Joe Paterno has been around for 797 division I-A coaching changes?

by immikfefazz on Jun 5, 2007 1:37 PM EDT reply actions

Nothing this Spring has scared me more than Steele’s FSU ranking- I’ve bloodied 2 chickens and a 3-legged goat in my cube just to try and reverse the jinx. Black math voodoo and a hex on you, Phil Steele!

by Halleck T. on Jun 5, 2007 1:46 PM EDT reply actions

Oh, Hawaiians know about cold. They can visit it, (think Haleakala, or Mauna Kea) but they know their limitations. I’m reminded of my freshman-year next-door neighbors in the Pit of Bobb, who upon arriving from Honolulu, almost immediately went out and bought down-filled everything… in October.

The “locals” laughed about it, until the cold snap hit right after New Year’s and all of our fancy skiwear did little in the face of a 95-below windchill. Lake Michigan froze solid enough that I remember walking a mile or two out from shore. It was like Antarctica, but with the Chicago skyline in the distance.

by PJ from NU in SF on Jun 5, 2007 1:53 PM EDT reply actions

Havaiiins are funny Dept:

I remember when two pacific islanders began wearing earmuffs in SEPTEMBER in NYC. It was so funny. Though, those guys were too big to laugh at in front of their faces….

by Stacy Keibler Luvs Me on Jun 5, 2007 2:04 PM EDT reply actions

FSU’s ACC schedule includes games @ Clemson, @BC, and @ VT. Not exactly “weak to middlin’” if you ask me, which you didn’t.

by Sal on Jun 5, 2007 2:06 PM EDT reply actions

The VT game is likely the toughest on their ACC schedule, sure, Sal. But BC’s in transition, and Clemson’s a perpetual enigma. It’s not a gauntlet by any stretch of the imagination.

by Orson Swindle on Jun 5, 2007 2:15 PM EDT reply actions

I read where he has Auburn ranked in the 40s. Music to my ears. I love being discounted by the pre-season picksters.

by karlhungus12 on Jun 5, 2007 2:24 PM EDT reply actions

Clemson does put up “intriguing” losses at times, but they’re usually pretty competitive at home. With it being the first game of the season, I could see Tommy getting win #4 over the last five years against FSU.

Of course, if they played like they’re capable of on NCAA ’06 they would destroy everyone. Some programmer at EA must have a lot of love for the Tigers.

by BDoc on Jun 5, 2007 2:34 PM EDT reply actions

*NCAA ’07 is really what I meant. That Troy Smith YouTube clip still has me all discombobulated.

by BDoc on Jun 5, 2007 2:37 PM EDT reply actions

So wait- is BC “in transition” this year, or are they about to make the leap, as stated here: http://www.everydayshouldbesaturday.com/?p=3444#more-3444 ?

by Halleck T. on Jun 5, 2007 2:39 PM EDT reply actions

BC on the road? Man, get serious. FSU will face more noise in their hotel room than at the game. They beat BC two years ago even with Baby Bowden calling the plays.

The ACC comes down to FSU vs. Clemson and FSU vs. VT. Miami has Patrick Nix calling the plays. Nix almost caused Miami to lose their own Spring Game. They’ll be lucky to finish 3rd in their division with that offense.

If FSU splits the CU/VT games, they’ll still win the division and then take the conference during their “home game” in Jacksonville.

For all the talk of Bowden’s demise, he won the league three of the past six years EVEN WITH his dumbass kid calling the plays.

by paulwesterdawg on Jun 5, 2007 2:59 PM EDT reply actions

Here’s Phil’s top 50:

1. USC
2. LSU
3. Oklahoma
4. West Virginia
5. Michigan
6. Texas
7. Louisville
8. Florida State
9. Virginia Tech
10. Penn State
11. Georgia
12. Hawaii
13. South Carolina
14. Florida
15. Ohio State
16. Wisconsin
17. Alabama
18. Oregon
19. Missouri
20. Texas A&M
21. UCLA
22. Nebraska
23. TCU
24. South Florida
25. Tennessee
26. Arizona State
27. Miami
28. California
29. Iowa
30. Rutgers
31. Boise State
32. Memphis
33. Southern Miss
34. BYU
35. Purdue
36. Virginia
37. Arkansas
38. Notre Dame
39. Oregon State
40. Oklahoma State
41. Auburn
42. Georgia Tech
43. Illinois
44. Utah
45. Clemson
46. Houston
47. Toledo
48. Troy
49. NC State
50. Western Michigan

by AUAlum on Jun 5, 2007 3:27 PM EDT reply actions

is Hawaii really going to be a threat next season?
i mean Mike Shula’s “run it up the middle” offense beat them last year

by SEC! SEC! SEC! on Jun 5, 2007 3:54 PM EDT reply actions

Halleck T.—note the “Why not?” appended to it. It could happen, if things fall in the right place and Jags turns out to be competent and fiery.

But are they locktight, guaranteed tough? Probably not.

by Orson Swindle on Jun 5, 2007 4:00 PM EDT reply actions

“I read where he has Auburn ranked in the 40s. Music to my ears. I love being discounted by the pre-season picksters.”

Yeah? How’d that work out for you guys in ’04?

by Tommy on Jun 5, 2007 4:19 PM EDT reply actions

Steele said the SECE is a logjam 1-4 and that he wouldn’t be surprised to see UT or UF in Atlanta on Dec. 1.

by CFB Authority on Jun 5, 2007 4:22 PM EDT reply actions

Paul Westerdawg is right about the ACC, not that I’m any sort of authority or anything.

Riddle me this, America: If you look in the back of the mag for Steele’s SOS rankings, the TOP 8 toughest schedules belong to Pac-10 teams. What’s more puzzling is that Arizona State has the weakest Pac schedule and is still ranked #14 in the country in SOS, probably because the rest of the league has to play us.*

Steele also thinks the Sun Devils have a good shot at starting the year 8-0 before the tough stretch of conference play starts. He’s quick to note, however, that everything from week 9 on is a toss up with games against Cal, UCLA, USC, and rival Arizona.**

heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy, heavy sarcasm here.
- Do not beleive espn, Arizona is still not any good. It’s only a questionable game due to the nature of rivalries.

by Jon hates Russian spammers and UofA on Jun 5, 2007 4:41 PM EDT reply actions

Went to three different stores to buy Phil Steele today and nobody had it. Called the Phil Steele office and was told it’s not coming out until tomorrow, Jun 6. Glad I wasted my lunch break for nothing. Oh well, I got the day off tomorrow to try to read the whole thing.

by Travis on Jun 5, 2007 4:50 PM EDT reply actions

I’m going to have to spend six hours in Barnes and Noble this weekend.

by John on Jun 5, 2007 5:09 PM EDT reply actions

“Yeah? How’d that work out for you guys in ‘04?”

A hell of a lot better than in ’03.

by karlhungus12 on Jun 5, 2007 8:46 PM EDT reply actions

#26

The reason the Pac-10 school’s SOS are so darn high is because of the scheduling vagaries of the much-maligned 13th game. When the NCAA finally allowed the 13th game beginning last year, most teams jumped at the chance to schedule Western Carolina, South East Arkansas State, and North by Northwest Washington State.

The Pac-10, by contrast, added a 9th conference game. So the Pac-10’s SOS is very high because instead of playing some crazy directional school, they play the other member of the conference that they previously would not have played.

One could make thr argument that this makes all schools in the Pac-10 very strong, but on the opposite side of the coin, they’re still playing a team from the Pac-10, and yeah, we all know that Arizona is a better team than Southern Illinois or whatever, but playing against each other in conference doesn’t really equal superiority against other conferences.

And the fact is, if you have a really strong SOS and still manage to finish 7-6, 8-5 every year, it doesn’t a compelling argument make. And apart from USC, there’s every likelihood that every other team in the Pac-10 will finish somewhere in that neighborhood.

by Jason on Jun 5, 2007 11:23 PM EDT reply actions

Good analysis, Paul, but, in the future, you may want to be more careful about the way you abbreviate “Clemson and Virginia Tech.”

I was just skimming down the page, saw “CU/VT,” and thought, “Dang, Paul, that’s a horrible thing to call a woman, and you had to go and do it in all-caps!”

Food for thought.

(AUAlum, thanks for posting the top 50. I left the office a few minutes early so I could run by the Books A Million in McDonough and pick up a copy. All they had were Athlon and Lindy’s, which I got, but it’s not the same.)

by T. Kyle King on Jun 6, 2007 12:19 AM EDT reply actions

I think it worked out pretty well for Auburn in ’04. Pre-season rankings were around 20 or so, I think. ’03 was the exact opposite (pre-season ranking in Top 5 = 8-5 record).

Yes, please rank Auburn at #22!

by HFS on Jun 6, 2007 10:41 AM EDT reply actions