MARGINS, SCHMARGINS: THE CASE FOR BOSTON COLLEGE
Every year, Phil Steele holes up in the television hive he calls his offices, watches tape until his eyeballs bleed, and comes out with his guide to college football. And most years, Phil picks a team to beat somewhere in college football that exceeds expectations, most often based on the fact that the team, while holding a losing record for the year, improved enough over the offseason to warrant an expectation of marginal improvement. And at those margins, the points will tip their way, and voila--winning season.

Margins are a bitch. Ask Ryan Succop.
It should be stated that what we just said is a gross oversimplification of Steele's methodology, a morass of calculations, formulas, intense film study, differential equations, animal sacrifice, and more than a few occult ceremonies.
But at the core, it's not too far from the basic thrust: that if you're looking for teams of value in 2007, go back and look and see who got the UFIA from fate on more than one occasion in 2006.
Given that...why not Boston College? In the hedger's nightmare is the ACC, a conference where margins of victory waned to mere splinters of points, they're as fine a guess as any, and not completely pulled from the ass, either.
If they handed out points for punting on third down, the ACC would be doing it due to the squeaky points margins in their in-conference games not involving Duke. Case in point: Boston College's combined losing margins in their three losses totalled twelve points in all, including a nutbreaking 17-14 loss to Miami in the OB with Lamar Thomas waiting by the elevator just in case a fight broke out on the field.
The argument for BC making up these points doesn't come from the schedule (on the road for Clemson and Virginia Tech look particularly nasty,) but from the carryover of the best conference quarterback, Matt Ryan, the implementation of a more aggressive offense, and new coach Jeff Jagodzinski keeping on defensive coordinator Frank Spaziani, whose defenses allowed former coach Tom O'Brien to play tightfisted hands on both sides fo the ball.
Jags, which Bill has informed us is acceptable shorthand for his long, Slavic surname, will let Ryan roll offensively in an attack that averaged 400 plus yards during the new coach's prior tenure as offensive coordinator for BC. We guess this because, reading from the Sports Simpleton's Psychology Primer, offensive coaches tend not to be as cautious as they might be when they have a seasoned, tough, and very talented quarterback at the helm. When you have Matt Ryan, who in addition to being all of those can take a man leaping helmet-first into his sternum without dying, and you are talking about a very real possibility of points production for BC.

Smart, talented, and has iron sternum: Matt Ryan.
ps. Why not Florida State here, since many of the same dynamics apply? (New OC, same defensive braintrust, etc. Florida State's schedule, for one--brutal, with games against Alabama in Jacksonville and at Boulder against Colorado. The mileage alone will fatigue the 'Noles, who by the end of the season will be burnt down to a mean, adamantine core. Just in time for Florida! Yay!
That 33-0 blowout last season to Wake Forest still troubles us, too. Their quarterback situation isn't great, either; when have two quarterbacks looked worse with three years experience? This year's gearing up for 2008, where they'll be burning bitches down again. 2007, though, will be about thinning the herd for new coaches Jimbo Fisher and Rick Trickett. At times, it won't be pretty out of necessity.
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PPS.—First year coach argument prebuttal: Bret Bielema.
And at least Jags wants to be there, unlike grumbly prior coach.
by Orson Swindle on May 21, 2007 2:53 PM EDT reply actions
You won the national championship, must you rub the blocked kicks in our face again? I literally threw up after the final one.
by offcampus on May 21, 2007 2:55 PM EDT reply actions
Why not Colorado? Only won 2 games last year, but had a new coach, no QB or RB and almost beat Georgia in Georgia. Hawkins straightedn stuff out, his son should be a threat at QB and we didn’t lose any major skill players other than at kicker.
by baba oje on May 21, 2007 2:55 PM EDT reply actions
O’Brien overachieved at BC. Why exactly should we expect them to be better with a new coach from the NFL with no head coaching experience?
by Herb on May 21, 2007 3:00 PM EDT reply actions
Herb: How did O’Brien overachieve at BC? Awful record against ranked teams and name programs, .500ish record in conference, plenty of bowl wins against nonBCS conference teams. Is that some sort of tall order?
by Bill on May 21, 2007 3:19 PM EDT reply actions
by Alex F. on May 21, 2007 3:23 PM EDT reply actions
Orson, good point with Biemela – also, Peterson at Boise State last year and Les Miles at LSU in ’05.
by Alex F. on May 21, 2007 3:26 PM EDT reply actions
Well, for the skeptics, let’s sell it from a skeptic’s point of view. Jags is all bluster and playcalling, and no managerial chops. If so, then he’s got an existing superstructure inherited from a very, very structured coach, good talent, and a good defensive staff.
From that perspective, if you’re going to take BC at value in the next five years, then this is the time to do it.
by Orson Swindle on May 21, 2007 3:30 PM EDT reply actions
Why not Rutgers? I think we’ll improve enough on the margins to not lose those two games this year…
by Dave K. on May 21, 2007 3:42 PM EDT reply actions
I’m expecting WVU and Louisville to be more improved than Rutgers will be. Also, don’t think you’ll be able to just roll over what I expect to be a surprising Maryland team next year.
by Alex F. on May 21, 2007 4:09 PM EDT reply actions
Any Big 12 North team except Nebraska, it just seems fairly easy to rebound in that division.
by John on May 21, 2007 4:09 PM EDT reply actions
I don’t trust margins. I grew up in Indianapolis and one time in junior high, my classmate Zack took over our class project and he put all our funds on potatoes and he did on margin. Anyways, we all got screwed, Miss Bliss was livid and Zack was so disgraced he and a couple of his friends moved out of town, to Pacific Palisades I think. Anyways, margins can hurt alot of people.
by MP on May 21, 2007 4:17 PM EDT reply actions
BC will be one of the 4 best teams in the ACC, but had positive variance in close games last season, thus, if they retract to the mean, they’ll be “good” but not “great”
by CFB Authority on May 21, 2007 4:23 PM EDT reply actions
#6, compare TOB’s winning %‘s to BC’s all-time. After rebuilding the program from the gambling scandal, TOB’s winning % was always above BC’s historical average. The only time BC was more successful was when Flutie was there.
Orson, I think you right. I don’t have much faith in Jags as a coach or BC as a program, but he has inherited an excellent team with an excellent QB.
by Herb on May 21, 2007 4:24 PM EDT reply actions
Oh, and #11, Maryland will have a very very average 2007. They were +5 in the close game department and performed terribly on the field. They were lucky to achieve 9 wins.
by CFB Authority on May 21, 2007 4:24 PM EDT reply actions
didn’t the weed increase Jarvis Moss’ vertical leap on that play by 18 inches?
by Jai Eugene on May 21, 2007 4:30 PM EDT reply actions
Big 12 North is becoming so obscure, I think they seriously need to redraw the conference.
UNC needs to be considered in the calculus, given their new coach.
by MCab on May 21, 2007 4:35 PM EDT reply actions
JE—we so want a video clip of that looped over and over to the song “Stay High” by 8 Ball and MJG.
by Orson Swindle on May 21, 2007 4:38 PM EDT reply actions
No confidence in Harbaugh and the Cardinal? That move alone should yield a winning record!
by BDoc on May 21, 2007 4:45 PM EDT reply actions
Herb:
I’ve spent a fair bit of time breaking down every part of the O’Brien era. He won, but not much more than BC has ever one and his schedules were very light compared to Coughlin, Bicknell and Henning. http://atleagle.blogspot.com/2006/12/debunking-it-is-hard-to-win-at-bc-myth.html
by Bill on May 21, 2007 4:53 PM EDT reply actions
Orson #19 – Or Cypress Hill’s “Want to Get High.” Glad to see him playing on Sundays this coming season and not making the trip as a player to Columbia.
by Out of Conference on May 21, 2007 4:55 PM EDT reply actions
Herb—are you a Notre Dame, Rutgers, West Virginia, or UConn fan?? I haven’t noticed any misspelled words, grammatical errors, or references to bestiality; and your attitude towards BC seems to be one of hubristic arrogance rather than an emotionally devastating inferiority complex; so I’m going to guess you’re a Domer.
by Alex F. on May 21, 2007 5:48 PM EDT reply actions
Alex, I doubt a Notre Dame fan would play the NFL coordinator with no head coaching experience card
by NDTom on May 21, 2007 5:53 PM EDT reply actions
Domers aren’t exactly known for their ability to use reason and logic in an unbiased manner, so it’s hardly out of the realm of possibility.
by Alex F. on May 22, 2007 1:07 AM EDT reply actions
Here comes the “Fredo” comment from a Domer in 5.. 4… 3…
by Alex L. (Not Alex F.) on May 22, 2007 8:10 AM EDT reply actions
Clempson has an inexperienced QB (again) & has to deal with Bowden’s screwups. As Mark Packer sez, “When will my alma mater show up in ANY sport when its crunch time?”
Don’t look for Willy Korn to be this year’s Tebow. Clemmons will wind up 8-4, 7-5. Then get whupped in the bowl game.
Bring back Danny Ford NOW.
by yoyofutbawl on May 22, 2007 8:20 AM EDT reply actions
“Herb–are you a Notre Dame, Rutgers, West Virginia, or UConn fan?? I haven’t noticed any misspelled words, grammatical errors, or references to bestiality; and your attitude towards BC seems to be one of hubristic arrogance rather than an emotionally devastating inferiority complex; so I’m going to guess you’re a Domer.”
Ha! State fan. So the hubristic arrogance is due to beating you on a last second pass, then stealing your coach. We’ll see how things work out. We’re not asking for much from a coaching standpoint, I mean, this is a program that sent basically its entire defense to the NFL and still made it to only one bowl in a three year period.
by Herb on May 22, 2007 8:25 AM EDT reply actions
My girlfriend is a Domer. So now in addition to heckling her about State beating ND in the Gator bowl a few years back, I can point out TOB’s record against ND. Plus, girls don’t wear sun dresses to ND games. That’s just un-American, or at least un-Southern.
by Herb on May 22, 2007 8:27 AM EDT reply actions
Herb, you have your priorities straight when you say -
“Plus, girls don’t wear sun dresses to ND games. That’s just un-American, or at least un-Southern.”
I’m not willing to give them a pass either but I guess its because its a lot colder up there for most of the season, which is tragic as well.
by Brian on May 22, 2007 8:37 AM EDT reply actions
NC State actually crossed my mind too but you can’t go back and edit these posts. Yes, your last-second victory was impressive, particularly after the 30-10 whomping we laid on you the year before. BTW, you didn’t “steal” our coach. When I walk out of the bank after depositing a paycheck and give 75 cents to the bum sitting on the corner, he did not steal my 75 cents.
by Alex F. on May 22, 2007 9:07 AM EDT reply actions
My girlfriend actually didn’t believe me about the sun dresses. I’m slowly introducing her to the world of Southern college football. First I took her to a Western Carolina game, then a NC State game, and I’ll take her to an SEC game next.
Most State fans felt the same way about Arizona St. “stealing” our b-ball coach as BC fans do about us “stealing” their football coach (good riddance). Time will tell. He’d better not suck though, cause we already had that, along with general hilarity, with Chuck the Chest.
by Herb on May 22, 2007 9:48 AM EDT reply actions
I’m not playing dumb here (not playing), but is Steele saying BC should be improved, or is that just the opinion of the EDSBS editorial staff?
If it’s the latter, one of the four questions for tonight should be to have people try to guess who Steele will predict as most improved for 2007.
by PeterPumpkinhead on May 22, 2007 9:50 AM EDT reply actions
Re: #26
I think pulling out the Fredo comment would only confuse the general populace of this site.
Besides, you’ve already given us so much to mock (gambling scandal, failure to ever make a BCS game even when Miami and VT left before you, accepting ND rejects with open arms), we really don’t need to keep going back to that well.
It’s too bad your football tradition consists of exactly 2 plays. Your idea of touching greatness is being a stumbling block along the way for the real powers. You’ll never be on the level of ND or USC, and it’s funny that you folks can’t get your heads around that. I think the even funnier part is that a shocking majority of your fans have not a clue that you actually won a national title. Of course, it was WWII, so I guess it’d be easy to overlook.
by Wooderson on May 22, 2007 10:34 AM EDT reply actions
Accept ND rejects with open arms and then beating ND 4 straight years and 5 out of 6.
Not saying BC and ND are on the same level, but maybe ND isn’t on the level they think they are either.
by Andrew on May 22, 2007 12:01 PM EDT reply actions
Yeah, when Syracuse is beating Ty Willingham by 20, your wins lose a bit of luster. We’’ll see how you guys do against weis.
by Wooderson on May 22, 2007 12:53 PM EDT reply actions
beating a Ty willingham team 3 years in a row and one boob davie team is a big accomplishment… i think USC did it with more grandeur though…
by John on May 22, 2007 1:49 PM EDT reply actions
Indeed, if it weren’t for USC we’d be mired in the thick of a really bad coaching search right now, and brady quinn would be tryign to walk on to an arena league team. fate certainly works in myterious ways.
by Wooderson on May 22, 2007 2:11 PM EDT reply actions
All that, and you guys still can’t figure out how to beat us. Must suck to be a ND fan.
by Alex F. on May 22, 2007 3:05 PM EDT reply actions
Notre Dame, returning to glory since 1992
by Alex L. (Not Alex F.) on May 22, 2007 3:30 PM EDT reply actions
Re post # 34:
I really don’t care what ND’s tradition is (or isn’t). I just love baiting domers, it’s like taking candy from a baby.
by Alex L. (Not Alex F.) on May 22, 2007 3:33 PM EDT reply actions
Alex F-
What the hell is “hubristic arrogance”? Can you possibly get more redundant? That’s like saying “inadequate BC student”.
by Kevin on May 22, 2007 5:09 PM EDT reply actions
Actually, “hubristic” is more extreme than “arrogant”. So it’s like saying someone is “insanely troubled”, rather than saying someone is a “delusional Domer” (which would be redundant).
by Alex F. on May 23, 2007 12:53 AM EDT reply actions
Alex F.,
Did you frame your ND rejection letter to give you extra motivation to go to BC? Just curious.
by Wooderson on May 23, 2007 6:32 AM EDT reply actions
Well I tossed my half-filled-out application to ND when I got into BC early, so it’s probably in a landfill somewhere in Jersey right now.
by Alex F. on May 23, 2007 9:25 AM EDT reply actions
BTW, “landfill in Jersey” – another example of redundancy.
by Alex F. on May 23, 2007 9:25 AM EDT reply actions
This notion that BC is full of ND rejects is just another example of how domers are doomed to live in the past. So, yes, while ND was a on a tier above BC academically 20-30 years ago, that difference has utterly vanished by now.
So we have debunked the ND will forever be the better football team and better school theories. Is there anything left you want to debate about? I predict: “ND is still better for the Catholic Church than BC” in 5… 4… 3…
by Alex L. on May 23, 2007 9:55 AM EDT reply actions
Alex L or F or any other flaming Alex out there for that matter-
If by “debunked” you mean, “an ND reject stated it, therefore it must be true”, then you have done a fine job of debunking.
Check the academic rankings of BC. Then ND. I dare ya.
Check the number of national titles BC has won. Then check the number ND has won. I dare ya.
Douchebag.
by Kevin on May 23, 2007 4:58 PM EDT reply actions
Apparently BC does do a better job of teaching reading comprehension. He said that the idea that ND will “FOREVER” be the better academic school/football program has been debunked (FWIW, the two schools are about equal on both counts right now).
I can count on one hand the number of BC students I’ve known who got rejected from ND. Most either got into both and chose BC, or didn’t even apply to ND, because no-one wants to go to school in a cornfield in the middle of nowhere where you can’t have girls in your room after 9 pm.
by Alex F. on May 23, 2007 5:14 PM EDT reply actions
Notre Dame is the greatest institution of higher education on the planet. People only attend other schools because they can’t get into ND. That is why Notre Dame’s US News ranking goes up every year. Likewise, Notre Dame’s football team is college football. A quick glance at their post-season dominance of the past decade proves that it is the elite program. Pesky things like won-loss and bowl records will not prevent Domers from lumping themselves in with USC as the elite college football programs of the era. Apparently getting beat around on a yearly basis by USC is a sign of peerage. I forgot…the Davie and Willingham years don’t count. I guess you guys will just have to sit back and enjoy the victories over USC under Weis and his impressive bowl record.
by BC Chicago on May 23, 2007 8:04 PM EDT reply actions
BC Chicago-
Finally, a BC fan with a little sense.
Alex F-
Apparently they don’t teach math at BC. Last time I checked, 20 was a higher ranking than 34. It must blow being the third best college in town. And being ranked at the same level as noted academic power….Wisconsin.
by Kevin on May 23, 2007 9:32 PM EDT reply actions
Kevin, you are an embarrassment to all other ND grads. You act like a 3-year-old and throw a tamtrum as soon as things don’t go your way. And you resort to name-calling. Did you pick that up from the 20th best education in the land? Or is it hardwired into you as part of being a domer?
By “the third best college in town” I assume you mean Harvard and MIT are higher than BC in the rankings. Well in that case, whoopty-friggin-doo. Your skills at observation just blow me the hell away. What you haven’t noticed is, by your logic, that would ALSO put ND as the the third best college (when compared to those same two schools).
Since you need your hand held when reading opposing viewpoints, let me put it into words that a 3-year-old like you can understand: OF COURSE I know full well that BC is 34 and ND is 20. My point was that, at present and INTO THE FUTURE, those rankings are virtually a tie, since applications to BC are skyrocketing while acceptance rates are unchanged or heading lower.
Let the adults worry about the other schools in Boston (if there even is such a need). You little kids in South Bend can sit at the kids table.
by Alex L. on May 24, 2007 10:12 AM EDT reply actions
Alex L-
Do the authorities know about the fetish you have with little kids?
by Kevin on May 24, 2007 2:46 PM EDT reply actions
BCU is where you go when you can’t get into ND or Georgetown but you still want to spend too much on tuition.
Jugs was a real interesting hire. When Skinner leaves the BCU hoops program I expect Flipper to hire some nobody from Milwaukee Bucks staff. Nice work Fredo.
by Gus Orviston on May 26, 2007 11:17 AM EDT reply actions
Inreagrs to # 55
- - BCU – what school is that idiot? – Boston College University ?
- Win a bowl game – any bowl game or at least try not to get your ass kicked -
- Four in a row and five out of six – our players don’t feel entitled to win – they just do their best -and their best is consistently enough to beat an over rated ND
by Always believe In BC on Jun 14, 2007 10:42 AM EDT reply actions
ND might be ranked higher, but BC is harder to get into, so I guess ND is chock full of BC rejects?
Or we could all just be realistic and realize they are very comparable academically and athletically. But BC certainly has the advantage on location
by JLane on Aug 8, 2007 3:02 PM EDT reply actions

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