BUYS AND SELLS, WEEK FIVE
by Orson on Oct 2, 2006 12:11 PM EDT
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PrintJim Cramer's out making money. You're reading about college football. But as Mike Leach says, in a hundred years you'll be dead anyway, so go right ahead and keep reading.
Blue-chip, slam-dunk, stodgy but-oh-so-profitable blue-chip Buys:
Ohio State. As obvious as 1982 IBM at this point and honestly, about as interesting, the Ohio State juggernaut grinds on through their schedule seemingly unaffected by swapping out nine players on their starting defense, opponent's gameplanning, weather conditions, the alignment of planets, ball lightning, bird flu outbreaks, or anything short of a hellmouth opening up on the field and swallowing the team whole. (A sight Michigan fans certainly would pay a shiny Susan B. Anthony dollar to see.)
Half-sleeves, full bore: OSU's plowing right now, even with atrocious sideline fashion decisions.
The modified spread they're running with Troy Smith, the improving running of Pittman, and the long/short combo of Ginn/Gonzalez. The fact that Ginn scares weasels out of secondaries has led to the emergence of Gonzalez, the best discovery of the season for the Ohio State offense. They're just a corporation bent on destruction right now, and can see nothing but booming profits prior to the Michigan audit in the third quarter.
Florida. Why the hell not? They've now beaten Tennessee, Alabama, and have a home matchup with LSU, a team they lost to by two points last year in Baton Rouge. The offense still has that Viagra feel to it; about fifteen minutes pass before it goes from iffy to stiffy, and even then you're waiting for the the inevitable detumescence following a score or two.
Positives abound, though. The bend-but-don't-break school is back in session this year, and after spending most of the season on the downside of turnover margin Florida picked 'Bama three times while giving up only one comically inept fumble on a poorly timed snap. The Mancrush Meter on Reggie Nelson is approaching near-homosexual levels following his FINISH HIM! Scorpion chest harpoon interception to finish off Alabama. Nelson wears the 2006 Commemorative Ed Reed crown for "safety most likely to steal the ball, your girlfriend, and your soul" in a single play, having finished off both Tennessee and Alabama with key picks. Reggie Nelson Swindle...it has a fine ring, no? The braids will be a bitch to maintain, though.
We present the pic below both as evidence of his manhood on the field and, uh, now that we're looking twice, um...his manhood?
4th quarter anthrax: do not throw near this man.
Homer us if you will, but they win close games, make crucial halftime adjustments, and are showing a depth and composure we frankly find startling in Florida teams. At some point in the game on Saturday--somewhere around three plays into the first TD drive--we got the strange, certain feeling of victory in our chest, like a firm shelf you could hang hope on with absolute confidence. There were jitters, since D.J. Hall and Keith Brown taking passes from a quarterback as talented as John Parker Tanner Lexus Prestige Stonewall Parker should be enough to scare any SEC defense, but the feeling persisted, even as Florida clung to a 14-13 lead.
If a team has us feeling Amazing Kreskin vibes, they make the Buy list, even with the requisite compensation for homer points.
Georgia Tech. Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson, Calvin Johnson. Calvin Johnson; Calvin Johnson.
Calvin? Johnson. Calvin fucking Johnson. Genus: Calvin, species, Johnson.
There. Since adjectives won't properly cover how good he was against Virginia Tech, an onslaught of variation will have to do. Va. Tech will take a hammering in our Blogpoll this week for violating our trust in the vaunted Hokie system (Jenkins! How could you!), but a certain gazelle-mutant deserves much of the credit for the victory in Blacksburg. (A major special teams breakdown is to blame, too, but more on that in the predicable "Sells".)
Reggie Ball, the target of Chris Leak-scale contempt, has quietly earned his NCAA quarterbacking MBA this year. He's always going to hover around the fifty percent mark in completions, but consider what you've done with your life: have you hit better than fifty percent at anything? If you have, take your Tony Robbins tapes and pat yourself on the back. We'll go ahead and congratulate Ball for being good for two tds a game and not totally screwing up Tech's chances of winning in most of his games thus far this season. Even if his passes look like they're coming out of his hands at a 45 degree angle away from his intended passer, it's working. Hails and huzzahs to the best 50 percent passing turbo-midget in the game.
Rock-Bottom, Foist Them Off in After Hours Trading With Sketchy Egyptian Backroom Broker Sells.
Iowa. Irrational exuberance took a large hit on Saturday for two of our poll darlings who, despite little reasonable evidence, floated in the top 15 for the first four weeks of 2006. Drew Tate will earn hellfire for his three-INT performance, but Iowa's defense and their road-grading (victim thereof, not actor) the Buckeyes put on them. Fans of offensive symmetry, cuddle up with this: OSU ran 50 times and passed for 25 against the Hawkeyes, going for 214 on the ground and totally decimating Iowa undersized defense with beef on the front end and speed on the back.*
We noticed this thanks to some happy broadcasting synergy between commentator and situation. Herbstreit mentions what a great coach Ferentz is, blah blah blah. Buckeyes rip off 15 yard run. Herbstreit mentions that the defense is undersized and constructed of B-list recruits; OSU busts another run. Herbstreit mentions what a great job Ferentz has done again just as Troy Smith teleports a ball on a straight line to Gonzalez for a TD. At this point we imagine Iowa fans stuck behind a television everywhere were praying for Herbstreit to shut the hell up and start denigrating Iowa and their coach, since all the compliments seemed to converting mathematically into Buckeye rushing yards. But being a Buckeye grad himself, perhaps this was Kirk's evil plot all along.
Herbstreit, puppet master.
Michigan State. They're on permanent sell as long as Ol' Slappy, a.k.a. [NAME ALSO REDACTED], is holding down a job title in East Lansing. This is the last time we'll write this, so just mark it down and we'll move on to...
Virgnia Tech. Sean Glennon threw the ball over fifty times on the day. Unless you're Texas Tech or a Big Ten qb in one of those mid-fall tossfests that seems to break out occasionally up there, this means you lost on Saturday, which is indeed what happened. Credit to Georgia Tech's run-allergic defense: 42 yards total rushing for the Hokies in what has been a superb season for Tenuta's defense. Debit to: VT's O-line, who spent most of the afternoon tipping backwards while their backs slammed into Tech's rushers.
The shocking thing for us was watching Tech capitalize on a special teams flub by the Hokies, the Cardinals of the Church of Special Teams as overseen by Pope Beamer. This video shows the leisurely windup of the Hokies' punter in action, accompanied by the suddenly sage commentary of Paul Maguire.
(Tangent: Maguire without Theisman has been a complete surprise in the booth. What sounded too casual and breezy for the surgery of the pro game has become convivial in the somewhat looser college game. Perhaps his avuncular style just meshes better when paired with the sound of a marching band, but Maguire always says something that uncovers the anatomy of a crucial play or scheme. He and Gary Thorne, a fine hockey announcer who's getting the hang of the college game, are earning better than passing grades for announcing thus far. Now if they could just get Gottfried, the Senor Cardgage of the airwaves, off the team, we'd be cooking with extra virgin.)
Georgia. The rage of the Orgeron ("FOOTBAW!") must be nigh-unmeasurable now: he comes within five points of beating a Georgia team whose offense can't eclipse the age of consent at home...and still can't get the victory. We do not advise storing chemicals around the Orgeron, since the heat of his anger will ignite them through the container. He is, however, holding up half the grid of the Oxford Municipal Power System, which should earn him a civic honor of some sort.
Georgia's defense must be in line for civic honors of their own. The offense has dvolved into a Cromag version of the Mark Richt attack, with even the reliable screens and skinny posts stuttering along under the shaky hands of two freshmen and a glorified fullback manning the qb spot. Even the run game hasn't been predictable: despite being strong enough to bend steel bars with his eyebrows, Thomas Brown passed on his chance to seize the starting spot, leaving Danny Ware as the next to perform inconsistently before passing the hot potato to Kregg Lumpkin, who ran well for 100 plus at Ole Miss. Good thing, too: UGA passed for 115 yards against a defense that allowed 290 yards to Kentucky.
Further Review of the Prospectus Needed Holds:
USC. The lack of a run game has discombobulated the Chow-Perfect offense, which might explain why Pete Carroll was barking into his headset and looking less than calm in the rollicking final six minutes of ther 28-22 game against Washington State. With Cal destroying Arizona State and putting Rudy Carpenter's therapy bills into stratosphere, the Trojans look like they're losing some veneer and settling into a post-invincibility mindset straight from the national championship team playbook. They look a lot like Miami '04, Florida '98, and Nebraska '00: good, sometimes great, but with visible hitches in their step. We've heard Shelley Smith won't even sit at the lunchtable with them anymore OMG 1111!
Smith: dating some new Catholic dude from Indiana.
Texas A&M Texas Tech beats them on a last minute heave that had to delight the absurdist in Mike Leach's soul. But we're trying to see this through the low-level fog of hatred constantly blowing into Georgia from Alabama and see Dennis Franchione and his team for what they truly are at this point: improving. They didn't get their annual 60-point whipping from the Raiders, and ground out the clock on the offensive side of the ball, and made Tech beat them with a low-probability toss at the buzzer. They're not good--in fact, we still recommend that you handle all things Aggie with the longest set of tongs you can find--but they're not horrible, either, which the '05 model could rightly claim to be.
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Orson, you better get used to the idea of hyphenating your name (Swindle-Nelson). Also, you should maybe see if those thongs you sell in the EDSBS store come in your size
by Futbawl Fan on Oct 2, 2006 12:22 PM EDT reply actions
We all know you can’t spell overrated without VT.
Sorry, Andrew & Jenkins…
by Nupe in Va on Oct 2, 2006 12:29 PM EDT reply actions
“The Mancrush Meter on Reggie Nelson is approaching near-homosexual levels following his FINISH HIM! Scorpion chest harpoon interception to finish off Alabama.”
Classic.
Orson, where is Auburn on your buys/sells list? I would put them on hold for the moment even though the performance (against a dangerously refreshed S. Carolina) was not as terrible as USC’s versus Wash. St.
by Cardiac Kids on Oct 2, 2006 12:33 PM EDT reply actions
while the gloat-fest over the dissection florida performed on the field was deserved and well executed, trying to take our joy out of the A&M loss is just being spiteful.
by kleph on Oct 2, 2006 12:33 PM EDT reply actions
Just to poor a little salt into that wound:
The kid that blocked the punt against VT is a walk on, back-up placekicker.
I agree about Maguire. I HATE HATE HATE hated on Sunday Night football, but he’s quite enjoyable as a CFB analyst. Still has to work on learning all of the players and such, but that will come with time.
We also haven’t had a single “look at this, look at this right here” diatribe from him that I can tell. Of course, I think you could put a retarded chimp in the booth with Brad Nessler and the broadcast would be enjoyable.
by Jacketdan on Oct 2, 2006 12:34 PM EDT reply actions
Did you notice that the Gameday crew did this exact bit this weekend, even referencing Cramer and then going through buy/sells with about a dozen teams (about 11 of which Corso called as sells)? Congrats – your stuff has been stolen by ESPN. Although I guess that doesn’t make you particularly unique.
by rtr on Oct 2, 2006 12:39 PM EDT reply actions
Orson~
Pretty sure the only thing worse than using 2 freshmen and a glorified FB at QB is using a glorified freshman FB at QB
Thought I’d get that in while I still have the chance.. the near future looks shaky at best.
by Hobnail_Boot on Oct 2, 2006 1:01 PM EDT reply actions
The [Redacted] bowl was probably the most entertaining bit of football I’ve seen in a long time. Not because it was good football, but there were so many amazing subplots.
Will [Name Redacted] pull out a signature ’there’s no way this should happen" win? Has [Name Also Redacted]’s team already started its implosion early this year? Which one will grossly mismanage the clock? Who will blow a key chance to put a dagger in the heart? Will we see a spectacular special teams blunder?
by NDTom on Oct 2, 2006 1:05 PM EDT reply actions
Handling all things Aggie with a long set of tongs is correct. I thought I’d heard all their weird traditions, but check this one out:
by Orangeblood on Oct 2, 2006 1:06 PM EDT reply actions
Hmmmm… buying right before the LSU game??? Interesting.
With a schedule like that, I’m keeping them a hold for now. If they do indeed light up my Tigers this Saturday, then I will buy as well, but I just can’t help but feel like they aren’t quite there.
by LSUfan on Oct 2, 2006 1:08 PM EDT reply actions
We think Auburn’s a buy now, but like every team they’ve looked mortal at least once this year.
by Orson Swindle on Oct 2, 2006 1:14 PM EDT reply actions
John LLLLL [HALF REDCACTED] played two halves again. The 2nd and 3rd this time.
Look no further than the slapping gesture in his after game presser to see what a great job he does of keeping his team focused on anything other than the game between the lines.
by Canuck on Oct 2, 2006 1:28 PM EDT reply actions
Auburn looked mortal because they were playing in the home of the evil genius at night. South Carolina is a tough place to play, I still have nightmares involving their crowing rooster sound that they insist on playing, before, after and sometimes during every play, not to mention the announcer saying “that’s another South Carolina First Down,” over and over…and over. Also Sidney Rice is Calvin Johnson Scary and now that they have a solid second receiver, look out.
by Josh on Oct 2, 2006 1:31 PM EDT reply actions
Sidney Rice is not Calvin Johnson Scary. He was shut down by DI, lost a Jump Ball to a Linebacker (an endzone INT at that), and lost another jump ball to a 3rd string DB. AU’s either uber-talented, or Rice is a bit overrated, though definitely talented.
I’m leaning towards the later.
by NewAZTiger on Oct 2, 2006 1:35 PM EDT reply actions
I liked us at 15, but floating up to 10 was a suckers bet. The well advertised holes in our young young youngity O-line and the resulting question marks it causes in the pass and run block phase on the game should have been enough warning for most folks. Even our homer boards realized that a win against GT’s defense would take a nearly perfect execution by our team which we obviously didn’t deliver on. Credit GT for the win.
The good news – we didn’t fold and go into the fetal position after getting down three scores early and the receivers played great, including David Clowney who had a great day despite having his appendix out about 10 days before.
by Hokie Andrew on Oct 2, 2006 1:39 PM EDT reply actions
if i was a Florida fan I’d be very frightened by LSU this Saturday. Who’s the 3rd string QB who’s going to come in the game once Leak and Tebow are decapitated trying to run the option?
by nixforsix on Oct 2, 2006 2:02 PM EDT reply actions
Any Senor Cardgage reference is a good one!
by Run Up The Score on Oct 2, 2006 2:29 PM EDT reply actions
What does TCOAN think of the pending Swindle/Nelson union?
Well, I guess if she catches a glimpse of ole’ #1 (see above photo), she’ll be fairly pleased!
by aerobab on Oct 2, 2006 2:36 PM EDT reply actions
i’m waaaaay ahead of you on the reggie crush. he’s one of those guys who just looks damn good in a football uniform.
by adam on Oct 2, 2006 2:46 PM EDT reply actions
I agree the UFlagators are a “buy” right now, but I’ve got a sick feeling that no one gets out of the SEC undefeated this year. UF looks like the best team to me but this stretch of schedule will catch up with them.
a) How badly injured is the tailback Wynn?
b) If I’m not mistaken, Shula had a few choice words for Meyer at midfield. I think he took exception to not taking a knee in the closing seconds. Most SEC coaches would have.
by jaybuzz on Oct 2, 2006 2:56 PM EDT reply actions
I am of the opinion that you must establish yourself in the SEC before you have “a few choice words” for the opposing coach at midfield. I don’t think Shula would have the balls anyway. Meyer hasn’t establsihed himself yet either, but may be on his way. In fact, this is a list of the coaches who can “have a few choice words” at midfield after a game:
Spurrier
Tuberville
Fulmer
Richt
Croom (hasn’t established himself, but his team is so bad he can do anthing he wants)
by Cardiac Kids on Oct 2, 2006 3:15 PM EDT reply actions
Orson,
Weren’t there two turn overs. First on the bad snap and the second by Tebow towards the end of the game. I was hard to see through all the tears of pain I had in my eyes at the end of the game.
by TideInTx on Oct 2, 2006 3:30 PM EDT reply actions
There were two! We just got lost in all the back-slapping.
by Orson Swindle on Oct 2, 2006 4:01 PM EDT reply actions
I agree USC is a hold, but, the schedule will give them every opportunity to get it together: Washington, ASU, Bye, at Oregon St., at Stanford before the Oregon, Cal ND gauntlet (and UCLA, I guess). If they don’t make any leaps forward in the next few weeks, then I could see them losing 2 out of their final 4 games. The only valid comparison is Florida ’98. Solich and Coker slid after the gravy train stopped rolling for them. PC built up his program and is far superior to those two coaches.
by SeaTrojan on Oct 2, 2006 4:07 PM EDT reply actions
Uh, yeah, the final last year was 14-10, LSU. After five turnovers by the home team, no less. Alright, Gator math.
HodsonToFuller.blogspot.com
by P.T. on Oct 2, 2006 4:16 PM EDT reply actions
Established or not, The Orgeron can have a few “choice words” with any opposing coach, at any time he damn well pleases. Who’s going to stop him? Besides, I’m not sure his vocabulary extends much beyond four-letter words.
by Wiscy Dick on Oct 2, 2006 4:28 PM EDT reply actions
Wow, I thought we when ran the ball between the tackles until time ran out that was the honorable thing to do, especially after last year’s score. Spurrier would have thrown on 1st thru 4th down. Actually he would have scored before 4th down what am I thinking.
by Josh on Oct 2, 2006 4:53 PM EDT reply actions
Perhaps Shula was upset that we didn’t throw the ball up to our #1 receiver only to see his leg snap like a toothpick
by Joe Gator on Oct 2, 2006 5:18 PM EDT reply actions
A&M is either going to learn from this loss and finish about 8-4 (maybe 9-3) or they are going to completely implode. The good news is that next week they head up to Kansas to take on a not-terrible Jayhawks team so we won’t have to wait long to find out.
by Off Tackle Tom on Oct 2, 2006 5:40 PM EDT reply actions
In regard to football stocks:
What is the perception of UM’s (Urban not scUM)offensive prowess at this point?
I note that Air Force scores 30 points against TN and Central Michigan scores 36 against Kentucky while FL scores 21 and 26, respectively. FL obviously has much better talent than AF and CM; so why isn’t the FL offense scoring more? Imagine if UM didn’t have a defense.
Separately:
VT being rated ahead of GT clearly demonstrates why the voting in the coaches poll should be made public every week.
by jenkins on Oct 2, 2006 5:49 PM EDT reply actions
Cal and gauntlet in the same sentence?!???
Didn’t I watch a rather pedestrian Tennessee eviscerate them on national TV?
by NewAZTiger on Oct 2, 2006 5:54 PM EDT reply actions
Didn’t I just watch a pedestrian South Carolina give AU all they could handle on TV?
Cal has been playing better as the season has gone on. And they have been a team to give USC trouble in recent years so yeah, I’d say listing them as part of the “guantlet” is appropriate.
The final score of the WSU game was a little misleading in that USC had two very strong drives (one starting on the 1 yard line) to go comfortably ahead and then the defense relaxed and let WSU back in the game. USC did have a disappointing lack of pass-rush all day though.
I agree the “hold” on USC is a fair call at this point. And I still think that some of the problems in the running game come from shuttling in so many players, which I think comes from Pete standing by all those blue-chippers and giving them legitmate shots to run the ball on the field (which will pay off in recruiting the next batch of blue chippers and maybe keeping some of the guys who end up on the bench from transferring).
As a non-objective USC fan I’m still content with the progress on the field. I think the running game will settle down when Moody and Washignton get into a groove running the ball. Booty looks good passing the ball and they should be able to keep winning without Jarrett playing. But DJ should be ready to go again before things get tough and having the other recievers gain experience and confidence will only help when gut-check time comes towards the end of the year. And DJ’s injury could be a blessing for USC if it causes him to come back next year instead of leaving early for the NFL.
Plus I still have confidence in the coaching and Pete’s strong trend of teams getting better as the year goes on. I wouldn’t be shocked if USC dropped a game or two out of those last four, but they certainly have a shot at going undefeated as well. Not bad for a rebuilding year.
by oc phil on Oct 2, 2006 6:41 PM EDT reply actions
NewAZTiger – Cal is not the same team that faced UT, and I believe Tennessee will remind people just how good they are this weekend.
oc phil – without Sedrick Ellis the DLine is about as good as last year (or bad). But the real concern for me is the OLine. I wasn’t expecting this much of a drop off from last year. More so than Powdrell’s and Jarett’s injury or alleged questionalble playcalling, this is hindering their growth on this side of the ball.
by SeaTrojan on Oct 2, 2006 7:21 PM EDT reply actions
USC’s O-line hasn’t been doing that badly at pass blocking. Booty hasn’t been under extreme pressure, though Nebraska did give him some (and I tend to credit the Huskers for that). As far as blocking for the run, I do agree that they have not lived up to hopes/expectations. But I also think the revolving door at FB has played some role in disrupting that. And there was at least one significant injury on the o-line this week too (but that’s part of the game not an excuse).
I fully agree that Ellis coming back should give the D-line a huge boost. Cushing did a good job rushing from LB but they didn’t get enough of a rush on that last WSU drive for me to be really happy.
by oc phil on Oct 2, 2006 8:01 PM EDT reply actions
oc phil,
South Carolina is far from pedestrian. The Cocks would destroy Cal.
by Cardiac Kids on Oct 2, 2006 9:21 PM EDT reply actions
A&M’s season is over. Every defense coordinator will stack 8 men in the box and dare, DARE, that rag arm McGee to throw. And every offense coordinator will run underneath routes, out routes, post routes, go routes, fade routes, and anything else.
The remaining questions are:
1. Which game will the Aggies drop against an inferior opponent?
2. Who will use the Aggies like a prison bitch, OU or Texas?
3. How much will Coach Fran’s College Station dream house sell for in December?
by milevin on Oct 2, 2006 10:18 PM EDT reply actions
milevin,
ooh, ooh, I know the answer to question #1! It is a trick question, because there are no inferior opponents remaining on the Aggies’ schedule from here on out. Not even poor Baylor, who just thrashed KSU.
by Wiscy Dick on Oct 2, 2006 10:40 PM EDT reply actions
A word of warning to those acting on the advice given in the original article:
THE Ohio State University will fall to the hapless Spartans of East Lansing, and this will mark the only remaining victory on the MSU schedule. This is what the evil big head sausage fingered one does.
by crazy tom on Oct 2, 2006 11:50 PM EDT reply actions
crazy tom, the ensuing shitstorm might cause Bristol, CT, to be obliterated from the face of the earth, which would be good for college football, and hence, good for America.
by Phil K. on Oct 3, 2006 2:49 AM EDT reply actions
Of course Karl Rove and Jim Tressel are drinking buddies, so it probably won’t be permitted to happen.
by Phil K. on Oct 3, 2006 2:50 AM EDT reply actions
Cardiac Kids. I wonder why that 7 point win over Wofford didn’t vault the gamecocks into the top 10. Maybe it was the bad loss to a Georgia team that looked horrible against (winless) Colorado.
Cal is a top 20 team (at least till they play Oregon). Deal with reality.
by oc phil on Oct 3, 2006 3:40 AM EDT reply actions
OC phil. Auburn’s 40-14 win over Washington State wasn’t as close as the score indicated either.
The PAC-10 is snuggly soft. Deal with reality.
by Chg on Oct 3, 2006 9:52 AM EDT reply actions
I think AU fans obsess about the Pac 10 way too much. If you want to pick on a BCS conference this year the Big East, the ACC, and the Big 12 are all “softer” than the Pac 10.
by oc phil on Oct 3, 2006 12:29 PM EDT reply actions
Qoute:“b) If I’m not mistaken, Shula had a few choice words for Meyer at midfield. I think he took exception to not taking a knee in the closing seconds. Most SEC coaches would have.”
Well, then Shula needs to STFU. Who lost their stunningly talented wide receiver for TWO YEARS by throwing the ball late in a blowout win? A blunder for the ages.
I like Reggie Fucking Nelson as much as the next completely heterosexual guy, but that picture is…disturbing….
by 92Gator on Oct 4, 2006 2:09 PM EDT reply actions
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