The last time we gambled with any seriousness, we bankrupted a certain head football coach in a game of “War” and forced him to take an irresistable and doomed offer to the NFL, forcing a dark chapter of the Gator saga–all 1,980 years of it–into existence. Curse these damned hands…
So we leave gambling to the professionals who don’t change the course of history for the worse with their acumen. Cue our resident OCD type Solon, whose Dostoyevksy-scale gambling habit provides us with the most careful tracking and evaluation you’ll find on a free, amateur, and poorly edited website. We neglected to post his picks for last night out of sheer incompetence, so they are included here to make him look wayyy smrt. Which he happens to be.
Enjoy.
–O
Hello all, back for year #2 of the “pick winners or risk public humiliation” experiment. Last year went well, with a final record of 84-61, or 58%; this is certainly good enough to never have to work again, if only I could make it happen every season. Let’s hope I can, because several years of working in law firms is starting to take its toll and I would love to make the switch.
Breaking down last season, I started 25-27, then finished with a 59-34 run (63.4%) that is about as good as anyone is going to do. Last year, my preseason preparation was interrupted by a cross-country move, along with the obligatory job and apartment search. This year, there were none of those distractions, so let’s hope for a good run from the start.
For the record, Orson was giddy anticipating the season’s start and missed the frantic email I sent to him with my Thursday action. So, it’s included below as well. Please note that last year I went 2-0 on the opening Thursday and finished 4-7 the opening weekend.

Sorry we missed the email, Solon. We were busy playing a complex game of strategy.
All lines are from the Las Vegas Hilton.
THURSDAY:
Northwestern (-4) v. MIAMI (OHIO)
The loss of HC Randy Walker will eventually take its toll on the Wildcats, but not in this, their first game without him. Both teams are light at QB, but while I think NW QB Basanez was a quality player I think he will be easier to replace than Miami QB Betts, who threw for over 3,000 yds with a 27-13 ratio, not the sort of numbers that generally come out of Miami (O) QBs (Big Ben’s career performances notwithstanding). Projected NW starting QB redshirt freshman Mike Kafka is highly mobile with a strong arm, and while I think he could do the job throwing the ball this week I think his focus will be on running himself and handing the ball to stud RB Sutton, who will be running behind an OL that returns 4 starters and will be facing a D that loses 6 starters from its front 7, and loses an incredible 10 of 11 top tacklers from last season. NW’s D is by no means great, but it should be better than it was last season and it is worth noting that they faced some pretty powerful offenses last season–amazingly, Ohio and Illinois were the only teams on the schedule last season that averaged less than 28 ppg–and it is unlikely that Miami (O) will have the potency to exploit them, given that they are replacing their QB, only return 2 starters to the OL, and their best weapon–RB Brandon Murphy–is questionable for the game with an injured ankle. I predict that Kafka’s presence will metamorphosize the NW offense and the end product will send the Miami (O) D scurrying.

Kafka, starter. Can’t run due to this persistent cough he can’t shake.
FRIDAY:
Nevada (+13) v. FRESNO STATE
Fresno State got a lot of mileage out of their loss to USC last season but they followed it up with 3 consecutive losses. Among those was a 38-35 loss to a Nevada team that won 8 of its last 9 games. Nevada’s O stepped it up late last season–they averaged 34 ppg last season–and they should be even better this season. They lose solid RB Mitchell, but his replacement Hubbard has a lot of experience and is legit. QB Rowe is a solid player and should be able to move the ball against a solid Fresno D. Fresno’s problems lie on the offensive side of the ball; QB Pinegar, who threw for 3300 yards last season with a 30-15 ratio, has graduated and his replacement Brandstater will not match those numbers. Fresno has also suffered losses at RB, and while RB Wright was very good 2 years ago, he has missed most of the last two seasons with injuries and will likely not be a major factor from the start, even against an average Nevada D.
Please note that the California State University system has banned alcohol from its stadia as of this season, which should make the normally-substantial Fresno State home edge just a bit less.
SATURDAY:
PENN STATE (-17) v. Akron
There is some trepidation here because PSU often starts the season slowly, and they have ND on deck next week. I think this season they will come out on fire, for a couple reasons; (more…)