FIVE LOSSES DO NOT A CHAMP MAKE

excellent job working smug alert into a college football story.

maybe try using the “dog weesperer” next week…

Wow! Swindle, did this guy steal a girlfriend while you were in Gainsville or what? This guy seems to be the equivalant to you as Scott Stapp/Sapp/Creed Guy. Will you get off Lloyd Carr please, I’ve got Blue fans telling me they are taking coach Petrino at the end of next season. I want those A-hole to go Penn St next year and take some heat off my guy. All you are doing is laying another log on the fire. Damn those dirty MEEE-cheeegan apes!!!!

One of my colleagues from MAC-land refers to Hayes as the “Gossip Queen.” You’re dead-on in spotting his urge to be contrarian just for the sake of it and facts be damned. But, fundamentally, the problem with Hayes is that if one is going to adopt the “smarter-than-everyone-else” pose, it helps to actually BE smarter than at least some people.

No, brain, we just make the mistake of reading him and get into a frothing anger from time to time. Petrino is indeed a very, very shiny thing, isn’t he? And overtly flirtatious, too. He’s not a “Bo guy,” true, but would that matter if Carr stumbles?

You know, if you look back through college football history, I’m sure you’d find a lot of teams with five-loss seasons who followed them up with national titles. Obviously, I’m biased, but one team immediately leaps to mind: Clemson. The Tigers were 6-5 in 1980 and 12-0 in 1981.

Hold the phone: Georgia? Went 6-5 in 1979, then went 12-0 in 1980.

Some other close calls: Miami in 1982? 7-4. 1983? 11-1 and national champs. Georgia Tech in 1989, 7-4. 1990? National champs.

Michigan was 8-4 in 1996, 12-0 in 1997. Won the title.

Notre Dame was 8-4 in 1987, then went 12-0 in 1988 to win the national crown.

Pittsburgh was 8-4 in 1975 and 12-0 national champs in 1976.

But that’s not the point, Peter. The number’s meaningless since there’s a cavalcade of five loss teams who go on to do nothing the next season. Hayes misses the root cause of UM fans dissatisfaction and gloms onto the meaningless stat instead of looking at something interesting, like how length of tenure affects fans’ perception of coaches’ abilities.

Llllloyd Carr stays, UM llllloses to OSU and ND. Stay Llllloyd, stay.

You know, if you look back through college football history, I’m sure you’d find a lot of teams with five-loss seasons who followed them up with national titles.

When you guys take the inspirational poster trend to the ACC, I think that’s the caption for Chan Gailey.

He really does have them poised for national championship success every year.

They could always win the 12th Poll MNC. I think that’s what Carr is shooting for, though I doubt the pollsters would have Meechigan that low with an 80% win pct.

http://f5.putfile.com/5/14213205564.gif

Although Auburn didn’t win a NC in 2004, they were 8-5 the year before.

I am a Michigan fan and somewhat of a realist. Michigan plays three schools each year that are amongst the top-10 programs of all-time: ND, OSU, and PSU. If Michigan has institutional advantages over any of these three, those advantages are slight; these should be 50-50 games. It plays other programs that have performed decently in the 85-scholarship era like Iowa and Florida. It has been in a bowl game for 30+ years; therefore, it is theoretically matched up with an equal opponent at the end of the year.

What is realistic for an average coach at Michigan? A good coach? And an exceptional coach?

Some background: Since PSU has joined the big 10 there have been 3 perfect seasons by big 10 schools (PSU 94, UM 97, and OSU 02). During that same time period there have been 4 perfect big 10 record (the above 3 and Iowa 02). Michigan has been in a bowl game for 30+ years and has not had a losing season since the 60s. Michigan, despite having won or shared conference titles in 1998, 2000, 2003, and 2004 has not participated in a BCS championship game.

Is Carr underperforming or not? If so, who would do better and what would their results look like?

p.s. If we can skip all ND fans and OSU fans stating “Carr forever yahoo [1-3 or 1-4]” I would appreciate it.

I have no idea why I typed “Florida” when I meant Wisconsin.

you think ty willingham has job security in year two at UW? prolly nots.

Excellent take on the situation, Orson. Except one thing — there is some new-ness to Michigan in ‘06: new O and D coordinators. That was Lloyd’s acknowedegement that last year was unacceptable.

The only thing in that article that I think Hayes got correct is that Carr really is in control of his destiny at Michigan. I think he’d take himself out of the picture if 2006 is like 2005, but the school’s not going to push him.

I’m both Lloyd guy and very frustrated with the current state of affairs in Ann Arbor. But Carr has done enough to deserve to go out on his own terms. And really, why would the school fire him? Even if he goes 8-4, the stands are still full every week and the school’s still on national TV as often as anyone not named Notre Dame. The NCAA’s never been in town since Lloyd took over. He’s a good representative of the program.

Is a great coach? No. Is he a pretty good one? Yeah, pretty good. Would most schools trade for Michigan’s results the last 10 years? In a heartbeat. Does that mean 8-5 is acceptable at Michigan? Hell no.

Michigan record 1996: 8-4
Michigan record 1997: 12-0

Not saying we’re looking at an automatic repeat of that scenario this year, but I think we’re poised to make a nice run for sure. It’ll be a bitch to pull off, with road trips to South Bend, Happy Valley and Columbus, but if the defense steps up, we could be wicked good.
Henne as a junior is going to light some asses up this year.

And if we stink again, I think we deal with that when it comes to pass. If Lloyd gets the boot, he gets it – but it oughta be in favor of someone much, much better, and that’s a short list.. real short.

One of my real problems with the constant braying about firing Lloyd is that I almost never hear people suggest someone who’d:
a) be able to do much more;
b) keep us out of trouble, which is of greater concern in Ann Arbor than just about anywhere on the planet; and
c) be willing to take the job.

Hayes’ column was a little silly, but so are Michigan fans… Hating on Lloyd at this point is pretty uncool.

Carr’s going to be at Michigan for as long as he wants. The administration is so risk-averse that short of an NCAA investigation and a Steve Fisher-like fall from grace, Carr’s boat will not be rocked, no matter how many fans call for his head. They’re content with middling results so long as they’re legal and by the book. Don’t underestimate how much the Steve Fisher aftermath scares Michigan administrators. Crusty and upright — Carr is their dream coach, OSU losses or not.

Perhaps Matt Hayes and Peter would like to introduce the 2006 national champs: the South Carolina Gamecocks!

If 5 losses = national championship following year, then what does Tennessee’s 6 losses mean? 2 national championships and the bankruptcy of every Ryan’s and Golden Corral in a tri-state region?

I’m not so sure a five loss season is as irrelevant as you think. Yes, there are plenty of five loss teams that are going nowhere, but there is a difference between a traditional power—and I’ll admit that Michigan may no longer qualify for that title—losing five games and your typical Big East team losing five games.

A five loss season that’s due to a disproportionate number of inexperienced players on the field may end up being a sort of crucible where those players learn and develop by making a lot of mistakes. The tough season becomes a kind of basic training and a motivator for the following year. No one wants to repeat that five loss season and they’ve all learned things the hard way and are less likely to make the same mistakes again.

A five loss season that’s due to a simple lack of talent on the field and on the sidelines where a normal number of players leave the team is likely to be followed by another five loss season.

I do think a bad season for a team that has talent but is inexperienced is a springboard for an excellent season the following year. Of course, the big question is how much of last year’s results were from inexperience and how much were from the Wolverines being fat and slow and the coaching staff being afraid of their own shadows.

Although there’s no shiny, new thing in the head coaching position, I think Ron English qualifies as a shiny, new—and more aggressive—thing at defensive coordinator. The other question for Michigan is whether or not his new attitude for the defense—which has bedeviled Michigan since that magical undefeated season—will be enough to change the frustrating trends of the new millennium.

For me, sportswriters (dicks) and talk radio hosts (loudmouthed morons) exist so sportsbloggers have someone other than Phil Fulmer or Florida State players to make fun of from time to time.

Swindle-

Just wanted to let you know how lovely my farts are smelling this morning. Citrusy with a bit of an oaky finish.

Lovely, just lovely.

Go drive your hybrid, hippie.

“They’re content with middling results…”

Anyone purporting Lloyd Carr’s tenure to be ‘middling’ possesses the football knowledge of a girl scout.

Ben — I didn’t write or imply that his “tenure” has been “middling.” I wrote that Michigan’s administrators care about things other than season records. That said, last year’s 7-5 record was, in fact, middling. I don’t think that puts his job in jeopardy.

Swindle, hope it’s okay with you: I cut/pasted this and slapped my name on it when I sent it to the Sun’s editor.

Except I changed Matt Hayes’ name to Pat Dooley and the Michigan bellyaches to “Anything Written By Pat ‘Hello, Newman’ Dooley”. Because we all know that he only eats vegetables so he can smell them on their way out. I’ll send you a couple bucks for your trouble. Thanks, friend.

Using the same crap statistical thinking that “dick” uses I checked what every team with five losses has done the next year. On average a team that had 5 losses went 7.1-5.2.
Also on average the winning percentage went from .595 to .576. Applying that a team with an equal or better winning percentage had a “better” season 50% had a “better” season. That means that over half had an equal or worse season(61%). I will try to post the raw number on my blog later.

My numbers apply to teams with 5 losses in 2000 or later. Sorry.

I consider this post to be proof that enough internet bitching and moaning can enlighten at least one man. It’s as though you actually went to Michigan. Kudos.

BTW 24 teams had 5 losses last year so does that mean NIU, Rutgers, Louisiana-lafayette all will win a championship next year. Man I hate crap logic like this.

Fans really do get the big picture better than writers sometimes. For example, after UCLA in ‘97, most Longhorn fans completely checked out on John Mackovic. If it wasn’t then, it was the close win over Rice when UT gave up about a million yards rushing. If it wasn’t that, it was the Baylor loss, when Mackovic refused to try a QB sneak on short-yardage play, saying later that “It wasn’t in the playbook.”

But most of the media down here kept pointing to the previous year when Texas beat Nebraska for the B12 Championship (before getting annihilated in the ensuing bowl game).

Mackovic’s teams were, at best, mediocre despite pretty good talent. The offenses were OK, the defenses were horrid.

Despite these clear trends, the media said Texas fans were selfish and ignorant and had no patience and were fair-weather blah blah blah.

Didn’t hear much of that in ’98, when Mack Brown took basically the same exact team (with a completely new QB) and went 9-3 with a lopsided win over Miss St. and Jackie Sherrill in the Cotton Bowl.

Bunch of stupied Hayeses…

Bad articles in the media —> Great articles on EDSBS.

Keep it up, Matt Hayes!

uhh, this might lend some credence to Lloyd’s problems with the fans of UM football.

“Man I hate crap logic like this.”

I thought ND fans hated all kinds of logic. Don’t you guys deal exclusively with Jesus and echoes?

Ben you really got me. I’m speechless. You’re right Michigan is going to win a National Championship this year BECAUSE they were a 5 loss team.
Bow down before Ben he is mighty in his arguements. We should count ourselves blessed to have been in his presence.

The “crazed” Michigan fans are correct. Jim Donnan was the quintessential 7-4 to 8-3, let’s go to the Outback/Peach bowl Peter Principle HC. I remember the crying from the “coaching fraternity” when he was let go. Look at all of the current NFL talent he recruited, yet never got over the Florida/Tennessee hurdle. And throw in some complete insane meltdowns to lesser talents (Georgia Tech, South Carolina).

Dick Vitale was apopletic that a coach that “went bowling” every year could be treated so shabby.

I HATE Michael Adams for several reasons already mentioned here. But, he did overrule Dooley (who wanted to give Donnan one more year), can Donnan, and brought us Richt. Positive points for the Athens Reichsfuerher, Adams.

Oh yeah, I got lost in my Donnan screed. Why does Orson hate Buck and Kincade so much? Buck will always get a pass from the Georgia fans for the Lindsay Scott pass against Florida, he’s not too bad, but he has reached the apex of his broadcasting career.

Kincade is a pain in the ass know-it-all Yankee that Atlanta is full of. Doesn’t know much, stirs it up to get phone calls, and will contradict himself the next month for more calls. Not worth wasting more typespace on.