Prepped and ready to rip Vegas a new one this weekend, Solon gets all analytical and looks at which conferences have been kind to the campus gambler this weekend and which ones have been kneecapping punters in the parking lot.
Seeing as how we have just passed the halfway point of the season, I think it’s a good time to look back on the season as it has been so far from a gambling standpoint. Keep in mind that pointspread records reflect actual performance of a team relative to expectation, i.e., you operate under the assumption those risking money have some idea regarding how good the teams are. This is largely a safe assumption, relatively speaking; while they are by no means omnipotent, I would certainly trust the bettors more than I would trust the talking heads or columnists.
For the first order of business, I want to look at the pointspread performance of each of the major conferences thus far. Please note that games against 1-AA opponents are unlined, therefore performances such as Cincinnati’s close win over Western Carolina or Stanford’s inexplicable loss to UC-Davis are not considered.
Big 10: 17-12-2 (58%)
Pac-10: 12-9-2 (57%)
Big East: 13-11 (54%)
Big 12: 15-13 (54%)
SEC: 10-12 (45%)
ACC: 11-16 (41%)
Once again, just to be clear, if these records tell us anything it is how the conferences have done relative to expectation levels. It does NOT tell us the best conference.
Solid performance from the Big 10, which in my estimation is probably the best conference in the nation top-to-bottom. Even bottom feeders Illinois and Indiana have put together solid non-conference pointspread slates, even against non-conference BCS opponents.
On the other hand, the ACC has been a disappointment. This is probably more down to the expectation level surrounding the conference than anything else; it is difficult to assess, but I think the consensus during the offseason was that the ACC was the strongest conference in the nation. Few would argue that they have matched expectations.
As for teams, here are the overachievers:
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