HOW TO PICK A PRESEASON HEISMAN
The BCS meetings in Arizona have us thinking in the key of totally-shitbrain-absurd so we’ve decided to turn our attention to another bit of offseason nonsense: picking Heisman frontrunners. Don’t get the idea that just because something is absurd that it’s also unscientific. Far from it: this whole business of picking Heisman favorites is a methodical process with definite, long-established rules. As a budding pundit, we think we should show you, the reader, exactly how the pros pick the leading candidates for the award months before a single fan dons facepaint.
RULE ONE: PICK YOUR CANDIDATES FROM MAJOR PROGRAMS-UNLESS THEY HAPPEN TO BE THE SECOND COMING OF FOOTBALL JESUS. To play like the big boys, you first need to pick a quality player from a major program, preferably one that finsihed with one or two losses the year prior to candidacy. No one likes a loser, even if they play their ass off with superb individual results. Just remember, underdogs are not within the purview of the Heisman. This is Goliath’s award, as Gino Toretta, Jason White, Archie Griffin show: the bigger the program, the better, even if your performance is a result of the stellar cast around you. As with any system, there are exceptions to the rule: Barry Sanders at Oklahoma State, Steve McNair from Alcorn State, Marshall Faulk at San Diego State. This occasional fluky pick constitutes the subclause to our first rule: you may pick a small or mid-range size program’s player, but only if they are OBVIOUSLY the second coming of football Jesus. We mean it. They better be knocking helmets off defenseless qbs after defeating triple teams, catching passes one-handed in double coverage, returning punts eighty yeards with twelve men on the field for the opposition, and throwing sidearm passes forty yards downfield into a mailbox for a td while dragging a lineman and an inquisitive Jack Arute along for the ride. If they come slightly short of this, you will look like a pretentious asswipe, and people will start talking about how you’re dumber than Trev Alberts. No one wants that to happen to you.

Football Jesus: Judging from this, he’s an option qb. The kid tackling him? Go to hell, go directly to hell. Do not pass Go and fuck the 200 dollars.
2. CHOOSE AN OFFENSIVE PLAYER-EITHER A WR, QB, OR RB. Charles Woodson. There, we said it before you did. Any others? After integration? We didn’t think so. Even with Woodson on the list as a CB, he only cemented his position as the Heisman leader when writers realized he returned kicks, too. Despite being one of the three parts of the game, defense gets screwed every year when the Heisman comes around. We could weep on and on about how unjust this is to great players in college (Roy Williams at Oklahoma a few years ago was as big a nightmare as one could imagine on the field,) but tears don’t get us closer to a candidate, do they? Just pick someone on the offensive side of the ball, and don’t make it a lineman or a tight end. It’s cute to throw out an Orlando Pace or Kellen Winslow, Jr. every now and then, but only do that to look like a free thinker. We all know it will go to one of those three positions.
3.REWARD NUMBERS AND NATIONALLY TELEVISED VICTORIES. Simple enough. Most sportswriters would love to tell you how they TiVo every game and have seen every candidate play at least three games of some meaning. If you hear this it is, for the most part, utter and total horseshit. Most cover a single team in a single region of the country, so there’s very little time on the peripheries to expand the scope a bit and assess other candidates from outside their daily bubbles. Which brings us to the next rule…
4. DON’T PICK ONE FROM THE WEST COAST, UNLESS THEY WENT TO USC. EVEN THEN, GOOD LUCK! Three winners since 1980 from the West Coast, unless you count Colorado and Rashaan Salaam, which we don’t (as it is pretty close to the geographic center of the country). And they were all from USC. Which would bode well for Matt Leinart if we didn’t include…
5. REPEAT WINNERS ARE NOT LIKELY, WHICH MEANS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE. We’re not sure if it’s victory fatigue or what, but the writers simply don’t like awarding repeats. Ever. They did it once with Archie Griffin’s back-to-back awards, but since then it has not happened. Check Jason White’s 2003 Heisman line: 265-of-414 for 3,738 yards, 40 TDs, 8 INTs. White followed this up with 255-of-390 for 3205, 35 TDs, 9 INTs in 2004. Those yards and TDs went to Adrian Peterson, who gave Oklahoma something they hadn’t had in years, a run game. And though he was sitting in candidates’ row on award day, no one seriously considered him for the award. This most likely means Leinart, going into a transitional year at USC, is out of the running.
6. PICK A CANDIDATE FROM A LARGELY ONE-DIMENSIONAL TEAM. Balance, in the eyes of Heisman voters, is not sexy. Be from a team that relies on you to do all of the heavy lifting for your team. This eliminates Vince Young, who while being one-dimensional himself, does not come from a one dimensional team.
(Editor’s note: College Football Resource wrote in and asked us why we thought this. As editor, we honestly responded that we were horribly, horribly wrong. Thanks for correcting us, CFR. In response, let me paraphrase Oscar Wilde: “By giving us the opinions of the uneducated, [blogging] keeps us in touch with the ignorance of the community.” We couldn’t agree more. See comments below for our mea culpa.)
The most likely picks on the one-dimensional side are Chris Leak of Florida, since the option run game at Florida will take a while to get going, and Adrian Peterson at OU, because the pass-happy Sooners will be breaking in a new qb and leaning on Peterson. This is all impossible without the most important component of all, rule number 7.
7. BE SURE TO PICK A CANDIDATE ON PRESEASON HEISMAN LISTS. This is the area where the Oscars and the Heisman race most resemble each other. Just as Oscar buzz starts in the screening room, Heisman buzz starts the minute the Senior Bowl ends and pundits huddle over their keyboards wondering what the hell they’re going to write about for the next seven months. You need to be in the spotlight to star in the show, which usually requires at least a year of success to gain. As in movies, indie picks are cute, but don’t stand a chance. So apologies to Omar Jacobs and DeAngelo Williams-you will be this year’s Lost in Translation or Pulp Fiction to the winner’s Beautiful Mind or Forrest Gump.
So this realistically leaves you with Adrian Peterson, Chris Leak, and Reggie Bush. Reggie Bush is the least likely, especially given the fact that USC players have won it two times in the last four years. Even if he does have the best season of any player in the nation, he won’t get it because there’s an East Coast bias in the award. Plus he spends a lot of time doing that kooky “catching-passes-out-of-the-backfield” thing and splits time with LenDale White, two things Heisman voters seem to frown on. Leak has the edge of experience, but Peterson has the hype and program profile advantage. So this year’s winner, determined today on this very website, is Adrian Peterson. Glad we could make that so easy for you.

What does Bill Murray have in common with Omar Jacobs? More than you think…









1
CollegeFootballResource.com says:
Be sure and check out HeismanPundit.com. Why do you say Vince Young isn’t from a 1-dimensional offense? Texas has been nothing but run run run the last 1.5 seasons.
April 28th, 2005 at 11:39 pm
2
Anonymous says:
Great question! I said it because Mack Brown is one of those coaches who preaches balance, even if he doesn’t practice it. And looking at the numbers, holy shit, was I wrong. Check out exactly how wrong I was:
Texas 2004:
Rushing attempts: 615
Passing attempts: 275
That’s like, George Tenet-like wrongness there. Thanks for pointing it out-check the editor’s note in the text for why the blogosphere is so fun.
April 29th, 2005 at 12:05 am
3
CollegeFootballResource.com says:
No biggie, yeah that’s a cool aspect of the blogosphere, the readership, however annoying at times!
Peterson may break down this year, opening up the race a bit…
April 29th, 2005 at 1:33 am
4
Anonymous says:
My thoughts exactly. He never runs out of bounds even if there are 11 tacklers waiting and he’s already gotten the first down. As much fun as that is to watch, I don’t think it can last.
April 29th, 2005 at 8:11 am
5
Anonymous says:
True ’nuff about an injury opening things up, but Peterson is 19 and got plenty of mileage left on the wheels. And if the three of us noticed his refusal to run out of bounds, I am guessing the Sooners’ coaching staff has probably had a conversation with him about saving a hit when he can. I just don’t see a better candidate-he is the historical prototype.
April 29th, 2005 at 10:16 am
6
Heismanpundit says:
You forgot another major rule in regards to the Heisman–maybe the most important of all.
That one is that you must be a junior or senior to win.
Granted, at some point an underclassman can win it and it may end up being Peterson.
But part of the charm of Peterson’s run last year was that he was a freshman. Sophomores don’t get the same attention for being sophomores.
No, Peterson will be judged solely on being Peterson next year and, given his upright running style, lack of a QB and a new offensive line, I don’t think he will last the season intact.
April 29th, 2005 at 1:10 pm
7
Anonymous says:
Helloooo, heismanpundit, and welcome to the site!
Juniors and seniors only? An important rule, for sure. In fact, by the numbers, it is the rule, unless you want to include obvious ones like, “must have two legs” and “plays college football.”
My Peterson pick-despite the fact that he’s a sophomore-is based on two factors, one political, one tactical. First, Peterson is already on the top of tons of writers’ lists. Check today’s post for more on how important that is…
Second, the Big 12 isn’t the physical conference it once was, and a great running back like Peterson should be able to pile up serious yards in the pass-happy conference. Only Texas runs the hell out of the ball-see CFR’s comment above for his reminder to me of that fact.
As for injuries…well, that goes for everyone, really. Hopefully, I’ll be right, but more importantly, I’d rather ram home how closed the process for choosing the best player in college football really is…and if I end up looking like an ass, well, we do that every day for our own amusement on the site, so not much will have changed in that department.
You’ve inspired a follow-up post here, so I owe you thanks.
April 29th, 2005 at 1:30 pm
8
Heismanpundit says:
Well, first of all, you have to remember that writer’s lists are not the same as those who vote for the actual Heisman. You will see from my site’s history and research that the published writers are not nearly as conservative as the majority of the voters. In the end, it didn’t matter that guys like Ivan Maisel and other noted pundits last year had Peterson at the top of their lists, because the rank and file voters–many of whom have dubious reasons for having a vote in the first place–always reward the older guy who has a body of work and who has the greater name recognition. Upperclassmen, by way of common sense, have greater media saturation than underclassmen, since they have had more years to become known to the broader public. So that is why Peterson–and every other sophomore–is a longshot.
As to your second point, I think it is neither here nor there. Even if the Big 12 WERE a pass happy conference–which it isn’t–that would not necessarily preclude it from having good run defenses. For instance, the Pac-10 is known for being pass happy and it featured several outstanding run defenses, including the one that held Peterson to bumpkuss in the Orange Bowl.
The only team in the Big 12 that can be termed ‘pass happy’ is Texas Tech. All the other teams are primarily running teams that–in some cases–are also able to throw some basic passing schemes together with various degrees of success. One key to remember is that being able to throw good yardage does not make you a passing team, just like rushing for yards does not necessarily make you a good running team (for instance, Chuck Weatherspoon rushed for 1,000+ yards for Houston in 1989…..he was able to gain yards because every time the Cougars ran, it was a surprise).
As for the Peterson injury factor, I think his style lends himself more to that possibility. He even missed a game or two last year (when you total it up) and that could have cost him the 2,000 yard mark which, most assuredly, would have landed him the Trophy.
Thanks for the kudos…
April 29th, 2005 at 6:13 pm
9
Hayes B says:
I think Reggie Bush will win.
December 16th, 2005 at 1:14 am